在2025年5月9日提及的吉利汽車(00175)相關衍生產品表現亮眼，其中瑞銀認購證15942兩日後升幅達8%，跑贏正股同期1.74%的升幅；滙豐認購證16184亦 錄得6%升幅，而花旗牛證68585則上漲7%，反映市場資金積極部署吉利短線升勢，槓桿產品表現明顯優於正股。 吉利汽車(00175)同樣將於日內公佈業績，截止11點43分，最新價報19.54港元，單日升幅達2.09%，盤中曾高見19.66元，創52周新高。成交量顯示資金持續 流入。技術指標方面，RSI升至69，接近超買區，但「強力買入」信號仍佔主導，MACD、保利加通道及一目均衡表均發出買入訊號，顯示短線仍有上行動 支持位與阻力位分析 支持位方面，首個關鍵位在17.6元，第二支持位15.5元；阻力位則看19.9元，突破後有望挑戰22.1元。10天線(17.88元)已升穿30天線(16.51元)，形成黃金交 叉，短線趨勢偏強。 窩輪方面，滙豐認購證29483行使價19.64元，槓桿7倍，適合看好吉利突破阻力位的投資者；花旗認購證28798行使價19.5元，引伸波幅最低，槓桿6.34倍， 成本效益較高。牛證方面，瑞銀牛證54535收回價16.1元，溢價 ...

Group 1 - The concept of "practice makes perfect" is defined as finding a logical and practical approach that can consistently succeed [1] - Investment is viewed broadly, encompassing all legal means of making money, rather than just stock trading [2] - The journey of investment is continuous, with each stage representing a version of improvement, akin to software updates [1][3] Group 2 - Many investors have experienced a long learning curve, with some taking over a decade to stabilize their investment strategies [4][5] - The importance of risk management and disciplined execution is emphasized, with some investors reporting significant improvements in their returns after adopting these principles [7] - The sentiment that investment strategies are constantly evolving and require ongoing learning is prevalent among investors [15]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of technical analysis in navigating the fluctuations of the dollar index, likening it to a dynamic ECG that reveals hidden signals in the market [1] - It highlights the effectiveness of trend lines and moving averages in predicting currency movements, particularly during significant market events like the European energy crisis [3] - The article discusses the value of combining technical indicators to enhance predictive capabilities, especially when aligned with fundamental factors such as Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical events [5] Group 1: Technical Analysis - The dollar index's K-line chart serves as a crucial tool for traders to identify key resistance levels and predict strong market trends [1] - The formation of higher peaks and troughs in the dollar index indicates the establishment of an upward channel, particularly noted during the 2022 European energy crisis [3] - The combination of technical indicators, such as MACD and RSI, provides insights into market momentum and trend strength, with specific examples from the dollar/yen exchange rate [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Historical price levels often self-validate, as seen when the dollar/euro exchange rate rebounded after hitting a support level [3] - The emergence of specific price patterns, like the head and shoulders bottom, signals potential trend reversals, while prolonged consolidation phases can lead to significant price movements [3] - Market sentiment, indicated by the VIX index, can create trading opportunities when it inversely correlates with the dollar index [3] Group 3: Investment Tools - Doo Financial offers a multi-dimensional analysis framework and real-time monitoring systems to help investors navigate the complexities of the market [5] - The integration of technical signals with fundamental developments is crucial for making informed investment decisions in a rapidly changing environment [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - After the release of the China - US negotiation joint statement, short - term bullish factors have materialized, and the market is still in an emotional state. The new US tariffs on China have been reduced from 165% to 50%, which, although still high, restarts trade and leaves room for future negotiations. After the short - term bullish factors are exhausted, the market will return to fundamental logic after the emotional release [1]. - In the medium term, the rebound of crude oil is much weaker than other risk assets due to the increasing supply surplus expectation under OPEC+ continuous accelerated production. Unless there is an Iranian geopolitical risk, the current stage of crude oil rally is expected to end. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high levels [2]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Crude Oil - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It opened high and closed low today, testing the medium - term pressure level of WTI $63. If it fails to break through, it will test the support at 460. - Strategy: Hold short positions (non - right - hand side). Wait for the anti - package pattern as a signal to short again, with the stop - loss referring to the hourly high at 22:00 last night [4][5]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It had a limit - up with increased positions today, and the short - term support is moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Observe [9]. (3) PX - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated during the day and increased positions in the late session, with the short - term support moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Wait for the price to break the support and then look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [10]. (4) PTA - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated during the day and increased positions in the late session, with the short - term support moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Wait for the price to break the support and then look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [15]. (5) PP - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rebounded with reduced positions today, broke through the pressure/stop - profit level, and is considered to have a short - term trend reversal. The new short - term support refers to today's low. - Strategy: Take profit on the remaining short positions and then observe [17]. (6) Urea - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, and the short - term support refers to the low on May 8th. - Strategy: Look for low - buying opportunities based on the reversal pattern above the short - term support [18][21]. (7) Methanol - Technical analysis: Hourly - level shows an oscillating structure. It oscillated today and remained below the upper limit of the previous range. - Strategy: Observe mainly on the hourly cycle [22]. (8) Rubber - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It opened high and closed low today, falling back after reaching the upper limit of the oscillating range. The upper pressure still refers to the high on April 8th. - Strategy: The general idea is to short at high levels, but observe mainly on the hourly cycle under the current oscillating structure [26]. (9) Caustic Soda - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased positions and rose today, with opportunities for long positions based on the reversal pattern, but the strategy has not prompted recently. - Strategy: Observe mainly [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It had an oscillating market today, and the short - term support temporarily refers to the 4200 level. - Strategy: Observe due to the divergence between medium - term and short - term trends [31]. (11) Plastic - Technical analysis: Daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated during the day and rose in the late session with reduced positions, and the sustainability is questionable. The short - term support is moved up to today's low. - Strategy: Observe on the hourly cycle [32][34].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of utilizing effective trading tools to achieve profitability in a competitive financial market. ZFX Shan Hai Securities offers a variety of powerful trading tools and technical support to help investors identify market opportunities and develop sound trading strategies for asset growth. Group 1: Market Analysis Tools - ZFX Shan Hai Securities provides various technical analysis tools, including moving averages (MA), MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands, to help traders capture market fluctuations. For instance, a short-term moving average crossing above a long-term moving average indicates a potential upward trend, suggesting a bullish entry point [3] - The MACD golden cross signals potential upward movement, while the death cross indicates possible downward opportunities. Combining these indicators can assist traders in accurately determining entry points [3] Group 2: Risk Management - Effective risk control is essential for trading success, and ZFX Shan Hai Securities offers automatic stop-loss and take-profit features. Traders can set stop-loss points at 1-2% below the entry price to minimize losses during market reversals [4] - Setting realistic profit targets based on market volatility rather than unrealistic expectations is crucial. The platform's automatic execution features enhance the scientific and disciplined nature of trading [4] Group 3: Automated Trading Strategies - ZFX Shan Hai Securities supports intelligent automated trading (EA systems), which is particularly beneficial for small traders seeking consistent profits. Traders can create or import automated programs that respond quickly to market changes, reducing emotional trading errors [5] - Strategies can be developed based on trend-following or breakout patterns, allowing for automatic opening and closing of positions when conditions are met [5] Group 4: Diversification of Assets - Investors can operate across multiple asset classes, such as forex, precious metals, commodities, and indices, on the ZFX Shan Hai Securities platform. Proper asset allocation can achieve risk diversification and reduce the impact of volatility from single trades [6] - The platform also provides asset correlation analysis tools to help traders adjust their portfolio ratios scientifically, enhancing capital efficiency [6] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis - Combining technical analysis with fundamental data significantly increases the success rate of trades. ZFX Shan Hai Securities offers real-time economic calendars and market news to help traders understand macroeconomic trends [7] - Key events, such as central bank interest rate decisions and non-farm payroll data, can lead to significant market movements. Utilizing the platform's resources for market predictions allows traders to position themselves effectively around critical data releases [7] Group 6: Practice and Strategy Optimization - The availability of free demo accounts on ZFX Shan Hai Securities allows traders to test strategies and hone their skills in a real market environment. Continuous simulation and optimization of trading rules can lead to a mature trading system [8] - This practice enables traders to better manage their positions and indicators, ultimately achieving stable profitability in real trading scenarios [8] Group 7: Trading Discipline and Psychology - While technical tools are essential, strong psychological resilience and discipline are fundamental to profitability. Traders should adhere to their trading plans and avoid impulsive decisions during volatile market conditions [9] - Utilizing ZFX Shan Hai Securities' risk monitoring and psychological support resources can enhance self-control, which is vital for achieving long-term profitability [9]

有一个案例可以佐证这个结论。在过去的几十年里，大家看到美国标普500指数的涨幅其实很引人注 目。但在涨幅中，大约63%的贡献其实来自于流动性的扩张，即资金的涌入。剩下的37%，也就是大约 三分之一的涨幅，才是由标普500指数中企业的利润增长所贡献的。 可能很多朋友会质疑：这难道不是因为企业利润有增长预期，才吸引了大量资金流入吗？你没办法把资 产价格的上涨完全按比例归结为流动性的流入。但实际上，这本书也举了其他例子。比如在2020年之 前，印度这个新兴市场中，很多企业的利润表现非常平淡，但这并没有阻止资金流入，推动股价上涨， 并形成了一个巨大的市场浪潮。类似的例子还有很多。 从上世纪80年代开始，全球实际上已经进入了一个全新的时代。这个时代中，资金的流入流出、汹涌澎 湃的流向往往决定了一个资产的价格涨跌。这可能也深刻改变了全球市场中不同的投资流派。不知道是 不是巧合，我们观察到从上世纪90年代末开始，或者说从21世纪初开始，像巴菲特所秉持的价值投资 派，在这段时间里，跑赢标普500指数的概率和幅度已经被压得很低，再也没有出现像上世纪六七十年 代或七八十年代那种价值投资派一骑绝尘、在市场中壮观的涨幅。 本文为妙投 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock index futures opened higher, with all three major indices rising over 1%, and the Nasdaq futures increasing by more than 1.5%, driven by positive news [1] - A-shares are expected to open higher due to favorable external market conditions, with the market currently at a technical deadlock, approaching a triangle's peak, indicating a potential breakout direction [1] - If A-shares experience a slight upward movement today, the likelihood of continued bullish sentiment in the following trading day increases, with key resistance points identified at 3388 and 3439 [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index is viewed as a crucial support for bullish sentiment in A-shares, showing a convergence of moving averages after several months of sideways movement, which often precedes a significant breakout [2] - Given the positive news and the favorable structure of the SSE 50 Index, the overall outlook for A-shares appears optimistic, with a high probability of an upward breakout [2]

Group 1 - The US dollar index showed a narrow fluctuation around 100.65, while spot gold experienced a technical rebound after a significant drop, currently trading around $3325 per ounce [1] - The dollar index rose by 0.73% to close at 100.64, driven by the announcement of a historic trade agreement between the US and the UK, which maintains a 10% baseline tariff on UK imports [1] - Spot gold fell sharply by $58.25, or 1.73%, closing at $3305.89 per ounce due to increased risk appetite and the strengthening of the dollar index and US Treasury yields [1] Group 2 - The gold market is currently in a range-bound oscillation, with key support at the $3270 level and significant resistance at the $3450 level, indicating a downward trend [2] - Recent price action shows a deep retracement from the $3500 level, with the daily K-line forming a pattern of alternating bullish and bearish movements, consistent with technical correction characteristics [2] - The 50-period moving average continues to show a clear downward trajectory, reinforcing the resistance at the $3450 level [2] Group 3 - The short-term price trend for gold displays a clear descending channel, with selling pressure dominating the market [4] - The first target for downward movement is the $3300 area, and if this support level fails, further declines to the $3320 level may occur [4] - A new trend is being anticipated, with a focus on the breakout direction within the $3300-$3380 range, which will determine the continuation or reversal of the medium-term trend [4]

Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown signs of recovery from the negative impact of the "tariff war," with significant technical conditions being repaired during recent fluctuations [1][2] - Currently, the index is still within a wedge pattern, indicating a larger potential for upward movement and limited space for decline [3] Technical Analysis Summary - The index experienced a significant drop of 7.34% on April 7, 2025, due to the "tariff war," breaking through multiple long-term support levels, including the 60-day, half-year, and yearly moving averages [2][5] - Following the drop, the index began a gradual recovery, filling a significant gap of over 100 points, with a net inflow of large funds exceeding 27.6 billion yuan over 20 trading days [2][5] - As of May 7, 2025, the index has surpassed the 60-day and half-year moving averages, indicating a bullish trend in the short-term moving averages [2][5] - The index is approaching the upper resistance of the wedge pattern, with the need for strong volume and fund flow to break through this level [2][5] - Despite being near the upper resistance, there are multiple support levels below, suggesting limited downside potential [2][5] Market Conditions - The index is currently positioned near the upper resistance of the wedge pattern, but if it fails to break through, it may consolidate and gather strength [2][5] - The index's distance from the closing price on the day of the significant drop (approximately 250 points) indicates that, barring further negative impacts, the short-term decline potential is limited [2][5] - If the index successfully breaks through the wedge pattern, it could theoretically rise by the height of the wedge, similar to the previous rapid increase observed [2][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic and technical perspectives on major asset classes, indicating a bearish outlook for equities and industrial products, while being bullish on bonds and gold [1][3][21]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Perspective - The macroeconomic indicators suggest a negative outlook for equity assets, a positive outlook for bond assets, and a negative outlook for industrial products, while gold assets are viewed positively [3][5][21]. - Specific macro indicators such as PMI, CPI, and social financing stock growth rates are analyzed to determine their impact on asset performance [6][21]. Group 2: Technical Perspective - The technical analysis indicates a downward trend for equities, bonds, and industrial products, while gold shows an upward trend [10][11][21]. - The article employs various methods to assess asset trends, including historical price averages and specific trend indicators [7][11]. Group 3: Asset Valuation and Fund Flow - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 800 index is reported at 86.07%, indicating a low valuation level for equity assets [14][15]. - As of April 30, 2025, the net inflow for equity assets is recorded at 557 billion, suggesting a state of capital inflow [17][18]. Group 4: Performance Tracking of Asset Allocation Combinations - Historical performance data shows that the fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 0.05% in April 2025, with an annualized return of 11.87% since March 2006 [2][26]. - Other combinations, such as volatility control and risk parity, also demonstrated positive returns, with annualized returns of 9.33% and 9.64% respectively [26][27].