智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，本周市场的持续上涨，更多源于在周期板块带动下的风险偏 好阶段性修复。临近年底，本周国内外政策面与消息面较为平静，缺乏对市场形成直接冲击的新增利好 因素，行情的推动力量主要来自市场内部结构的变化。展望后市，春节前行情整体仍具备上行空间，短 期仍有逢低布局机会。 不过，需要强调的是，当前市场更符合"底部夯实后、为春节前行情做准备"的阶段特征，而非主升浪已 正式开启。当前市场资金更多采取"逢低布局、结构切换"的参与方式，而非在高位进行趋势性加仓。这 决定了短期行情更可能以"震荡中逐步抬高重心、内部结构持续调整"的方式演绎，而非快速拉升并形成 单边、持续的赚钱效应。 投资建议： 中泰证券主要观点如下： 指数创新高与个股分化并存，行情进入高位结构再平衡阶段。 本周A股市场在指数层面延续强势，从主要指数表现来看，本周万得全A、沪深300和中证2000指数分别 上涨2.78%、1.95%和3.06%。从成交额层面来看，万得全A日均成交额由上周的1.76万亿元逐步放量至 1.97万亿元，在周五当日突破2万亿大关。从个股层面来看，本周万得全A上涨个股日均占比约为 52.20%，与上周基本 ...

策 略 研 究 2025 年 12 月 27 日 春季主题行情已赢在当下 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/22-25/12/27) 相关研究 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 图表目录 | 图 1：短期中证 A500ETF 份额数快速上行，主要来自于规模最大产品的贡献 3 | | --- | | 图 2：电子和电力设备在中证 A500 中的权重较高，中证 A500ETF 规模扩张，构 | | 成短期行业反弹的基础 3 | | 图 3：量化情绪指标跟踪 5 | | 图 4：重点 ETF 跟踪 7 | 一 周 回 顾 展 望 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 一、短期 A 股连续上涨， ...

股指早报 大盘临近 4000 点 2025 年 12 月 26 日 股指期货早报 2025.12.26 报告摘要： 海外方面，圣诞假期，外围金融市场休市。 国内盘面上看，周四大盘低开震荡上涨 0.47%，深成指上涨 0.33%，创业板指上涨 0.3%，市场延续稳步反弹走势。题材商业航天、 人形机器人等保持活跃，券商板块则基本与指数节奏保持一致。市场 指数很稳，但很大风险偏好回升也说不上，基本还是处于结构性行情 当中。板块上看，军工、轻工制造、机械设备、汽车涨幅居前，有色、 商贸零售、煤炭、通信跌幅居前。全市场 3768 只个股上涨，1469 只 个股下跌。消息上看，商务部回应 TikTok、美对华半导体产品加征 301 关税。以后中美科技博弈边谈边打的状况或成常态。 整体上看，近期人民币的升值对于市场信心起到提振，而 A 股也 走出七连阳。市场处于指数稳步上升中的结构性行情，资金布局春季 行情明显。目前指数已经离 4000 点不远，指数可能在冲击 4000 点整 数关口后才会有大波动。 创元研究 股指研究员：刘钇含 邮箱：liuyh@cyqh.com.cn 投资咨询资格号：Z0015686 请务必阅读正文后的 ...

Group 1: Spring Market Outlook - The spring market is expected to start early due to three seasonal positive factors: policy expectation window, friendly liquidity environment, and performance data vacuum period [1][2] - The policy expectation window is characterized by the transition from the Central Economic Work Conference in December to the National People's Congress in March, providing a rich imagination space for market participants [1] - The liquidity environment at the beginning of the year is typically favorable, with increased credit issuance by banks and potential new capital inflows from institutional investors and households [1] - The first quarter is a performance data vacuum period, allowing the market to focus on medium to long-term industry trends and profit recovery points without short-term performance constraints [1] Group 2: Investment Themes - Three main investment themes are highlighted: technological innovation and self-sufficiency, cyclical recovery and supply-demand improvement, and balanced allocation of undervalued stocks with stable performance [2] Group 3: Urban-Rural Income Growth Plan - The "Urban-Rural Resident Income Growth Plan" aims to enhance domestic demand and build a strong domestic market, marking a shift from principle-based guidance to systematic and actionable promotion [3][4] - The plan will focus on five dimensions: employment support, income channel expansion, urban-rural balance empowerment, distribution mechanism optimization, and policy coordination [3] - The goal is to create an olive-shaped distribution pattern that allows urban and rural residents to share development benefits, thereby injecting lasting momentum into high-quality economic development [4] Group 4: Crisis Management in Brand Communication - The traditional logic of brand public relations is becoming ineffective in the current super opinion environment, where information spreads rapidly and crisis management becomes more complex [6][7] - Brands must adapt to the new ecosystem by restructuring crisis management logic, respecting subculture, and building a transparent and resilient brand trust system [7] Group 5: AI and Economic Impact - The potential for AI to drive high income for all is discussed, with a focus on the need for national coordination and institutional guarantees to achieve this goal [8][9] - While AI can optimize production processes and enhance service efficiency, the current economic system still requires individual effort and contribution for income generation [9] - The long-term vision of a highly developed labor force supported by AI is acknowledged, but the immediate focus should remain on adapting to changes brought by AI while ensuring personal survival [9]

在《天赢居变盘时间表》中，12月需要重点盯住的时间节点是12月15日，下一个关键节点则是1月5日。 大盘在调整21天之后完成探底，迟到一天半之后展开第三次冲顶，上冲至"均线密集区+趋势线密集区 +缺口"共振区3888后回落，属于典型的阻力带遇阻动作，然后突破并站稳，形成双底结构，因此策略 上以21日均线3888与55日均线3918作为主要参考坐标。 12月19日冬至节气站稳3888，随后站稳34日均 线与55日均线交点3918，确认"21天节点第三次冲顶4018"。 深圳市新兰德证券投资咨询有限公司 彭乾萧 投顾编号：A0780621020001 来自深圳市新兰德证券投资咨询有限公司【彭乾萧】【执业编号：A0780621020001】 第二，冲涨到箱顶4018后的短线演绎。 我们在10月30日和11月13日都强调了日线级别的箱体结构会有三次冲顶和踩底，等时间耗尽之后突破箱 顶迎接春季行情。与此同时，大盘自8月28日涨满377天之后形成更大的横盘箱体。从经验规律看，重要 关口的有效突破往往需要四到五次反复尝试，因此更应把"冲顶后的回踩质量"作为判断重点，而不是只 盯一根K线的涨跌。 综合判断：第三次冲涨至箱顶后 ...

相关ETF中，证券ETF（159841）冲击两连涨，成交额超1.7亿元，交投持续活跃。 12月25日，A股午后集体走强，沪指冲击七连阳，金融股表现活跃，中证全指证券公司指数截至发稿涨 0.43%，东北证券、财通证券、华安证券等多股上涨。 Wind数据显示，截至12月24日，该ETF最新流通规模为103.15亿元，在深市同类产品中规模居首位。 银河证券指出，当前环境下，中长期资金加速入市，市场活跃度维持高位，资本市场展现出"健康牛"态 势。当前券商板块估值处于历史低位，防御反弹攻守兼备。 对于当前市场，中泰证券认为，当前市场已接近阶段性底部区间，是布局明年上半年、尤其是春节前这 一关键行情窗口的较优时点。从配置方向看，科技板块中的机器人、核电、商业航天，以及非银金融板 块，仍有望成为春季行情的重要主线。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 证券ETF（159841）密切跟踪中证全指证券公司指数，该指数聚焦了A股的大市值证券龙头，而且既有 传统证券龙头，也有金融科技龙头。证券ETF（159841）同时配置场外证券ETF联接基金（A： 008590，C：008591）。 消息面上，沪指连续上涨之际，A股融资余额再度刷新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising while the ChiNext Index experiences a pullback, amidst a focus on the performance of the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) which leads its category in trading volume and price stability [1][6] Market Performance - On December 25, the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) increased by 0.08% to a price of 1.178 yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.92% and a trading volume of 246 million yuan, making it the top performer among similar ETFs [1][6] - Over the past five trading days, the ETF has seen a net inflow of 930 million yuan, with a total of 1.72 billion yuan over the last ten days, and 5.81 billion yuan over the last sixty days, indicating strong investor interest [2][7] Institutional Insights - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities anticipates the initiation of a spring market rally in 2026, highlighting that while key sectors like AI may have limited upward potential, alternative themes such as policy-driven investments and high dividend strategies are expected to be active [4][9] - The firm notes two positive short-term factors: sustained liquidity in the spring market and a favorable policy window in the coming months, which historically supports market rebounds before the Spring Festival [4][9] - Open Source Securities emphasizes that "technology first" will be the strongest theme in the upcoming bull market, with a shift towards factor investing focusing on profit growth and return on equity (ROE) [4][9] ETF Historical Performance - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) was established in December 2018 and has shown robust historical performance, achieving a return of 135.06% as of December 24, 2025, significantly outperforming its benchmark and ranking 80th among 502 similar products [5][10] - The ETF is positioned as a stable investment tool for volatile markets, with recommendations for investors to consider regular investment strategies to mitigate risk [5][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent performance and future outlook of the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly focusing on the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876), which has seen significant investment despite a recent pullback in prices [1][2] - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF has successfully surpassed the 3000-point mark of the CSI Non-Ferrous Index, reaching a nearly ten-year high, indicating strong market interest and potential for growth [1] - Analysts suggest that the duration of the super cycle for non-ferrous metals will likely extend until 2026, influenced by factors such as the recovery of the US dollar credit, strategic stockpiling progress, and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies [1] Group 2 - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option compared to single metal investments [2] - As of December 24, the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF has a total scale of 741 million yuan, making it the largest ETF among three products tracking the same index in the market [2] - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Bank of America predict that gold prices may challenge the historical high of $5000 per ounce by 2026, with central bank purchases being a key support factor for gold prices [1]

总体市场呈现窄幅波动、震荡上行趋势，看好红利价值、高景气行业和 主题热点。具体包括港股高股息、非银金融、银行、有色金属、AI、新 能源、创新药、海南免税、核电与量子计算。 Q&A 当前 A 股市场的波动特点及未来走势如何？ 岁末年初，A 股投资的三条线索 20251224 摘要 A 股市场近期波动主要受外部因素驱动，如美股 AI 板块及日本央行政策， 但这些负面影响已减弱，为新一轮上涨创造机会。投资者情绪指数回升 至接近 80，预示市场进入窄幅震荡向上时期。 当前行情驱动力主要来自季节效应和春季行情预期，基本面和政策影响 有限。岁末年初可关注补涨品种和主题概念炒作，并提前布局春季行情， 多数投资者对此持乐观态度。 跨年行情预计持续至 1 月，或因业绩预告出现调整，2 月春节后两会前 可能再次迎来行情。市场普遍对春节后行情乐观，有望提前至 2 月启动。 投资首选红利价值方向，基于季节效应和统计规律，推荐港股高股息、 非银金融及银行板块，历史数据显示这些品种在 12 月下旬至 1 月中旬 表现较好。 提前布局春季行情，重点关注高景气行业，包括有色金属（相对于黄金 比价仍低）、AI（液冷、光通信）、新能源（储能、固 ...

12月24日，A股午后发力，指数、板块和个股普遍收高，超4000只个股飘红。机构"去弱留强"调仓，军工、电子板块 领涨，消费与周期板块承压。成交额微降至1.9万亿元。 受访人士表示，市场对跨年行情仍观望，多头共识尚待形成。若明日站稳3936点，春季行情或有望开启。投资者不宜 盲目追高，建议"成长为主、消费为辅"配置。 A股午后拉升 今日早盘指数窄幅震荡，午后震荡走高。最终沪指收涨0.53%报3940.95点，创业板指收涨0.77%报3229.58点，深证成 指收涨0.88%。科创50、沪深300、北证50微涨，上证50微跌。 今日成交额1.9万亿元，较前一个交易日缩量约242亿元。杠杆资金热度增加，沪深京两融余额增至2.53万亿元。 盘面上，商业航天、航空航天、电子设备制造、电子元件、被动元件、天基互联均大涨，但煤炭、畜牧业、猪肉概念 领跌。 | 名称 | . | **** | 涨停家数 | 跌停家数 | 成交额 | 年初至今涨幅% | 5日涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防军工(中万) | | 2.88 | 7 | 0 | ...