元旦"微度假"热度高 [Table_Authors] 李林芷(分析师) 国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 1 期） 本报告导读： 消费复苏动能较强，但投资、生产仍需政策进一步提振。 投资要点： | | 021-23185646 | | --- | --- | | | lilinzhi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040087 | | | 邵睿思(研究助理) | | | 010-83939827 | | | shaoruisi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125070011 | | | 应镓娴(分析师) | | | 021-23185645 | | | yingjiaxian@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040060 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 金银铜续创新高，人民币汇率破 7 2025.12.28 消费温和改善 2025.12.28 内需有 ...

证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 4 日 湘财证券研究所 相关研究： | 1.《近期板块走强，关注零售百货 | | --- | | 业态变革》 2024.12.11 | | 2.《2024年社零总额增长3.5%，线 | | 下商超业态平稳复苏》2025.01.24 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 0.0 5.7 -10.4 绝对收益 0.0 5.5 12.3 -50.00% 0.00% 50.00% 沪深300 商贸零售(申万) 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：聂孟依 证书编号：S0500524040001 Tel：(8621) 50299667 Email：nmy06967@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路 88 号 中国人寿金融中心 10 楼 行业研究 商贸零售行业周报 元旦假期文旅消费数据出炉，关注相关零售产业链 核心要点： ❑ 商贸零售板块上周下跌 1.63% 根据 wind，上周，商贸零售报收 2422.59 点，下跌 1.63%，涨幅排名位列 申万一级行业第26位，跑输沪深300指数1.04个百分点；贸易Ⅱ报收4 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Insights - The consumption market shows strong growth during the New Year holiday, with significant increases in travel and spending among younger demographics [1][2][4] - The cross-year travel and ice-snow tourism are gaining popularity, with notable increases in ticket bookings and hotel reservations [2] - Hainan's duty-free sales doubled in the first two days of the New Year holiday, indicating robust consumer interest [3] - Various cities reported double-digit sales growth during the holiday, reflecting a vibrant consumption environment [4][7] Summary by Sections Travel Trends - High travel enthusiasm was noted during the New Year holiday, with a significant increase in ticket bookings and hotel reservations, particularly among younger travelers [1][2] - The search volume for "cross-year travel" increased by 125% year-on-year, with theme parks and concerts being major attractions [2] Duty-Free Sales - Hainan's duty-free sales reached 30.7 million items, with a 121.5% year-on-year increase in sales amounting to 5.05 billion yuan [3] - The sales in Sanya alone saw a remarkable increase, with sales amounting to 1.63 billion yuan on January 1, marking an 83.2% increase [3] Consumption Growth - Beijing's sales during the holiday reached 4.04 billion yuan, with a 16.3% year-on-year increase [4] - Shanghai reported an average daily consumption of 12.2 billion yuan, with online sales growing by 5.5% year-on-year [4] - Other cities like Qingdao and Nanjing also reported positive sales growth, indicating a broad recovery in consumer spending [4][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on Hainan and sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, cross-border e-commerce, and certain scenic spots [8] - It highlights the potential of new consumption trends and the importance of adapting to market changes in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected stocks within the sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a structural improvement in consumer spending, particularly in the liquor and mass-market product segments, with a strong recovery in consumption during the New Year holiday [1][2]. - The focus is on the market transformation of Moutai, which aims to enhance its market presence and adapt to consumer demands, while also emphasizing the importance of supply-side improvements and dividend strategies for long-term investments [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Moutai has initiated a market-oriented transformation, focusing on a consumer-centric approach and enhancing its product portfolio, including a pyramid structure for product offerings [3]. - The report suggests investing in both supply-side improvements and long-term leaders like Moutai and Wuliangye, with a positive outlook for gradual demand recovery in 2026 [3]. Mass-Market Products - The report notes a robust recovery in consumer spending during the New Year holiday, with significant growth in dining and dairy products, indicating a clear upward trend in both volume and price [1][2]. - Key companies to watch include Yili, Anjuke Foods, and Qingdao Beer, which are expected to benefit from this recovery [1]. Beer and Beverage Sector - The craft beer segment has seen over 100% growth in sales, while fruit-flavored beers have increased by over 70%, reflecting a trend among younger consumers [4]. - New product launches, such as the 1L juice from Uni-President, are positioned to attract consumers with competitive pricing and quality [4]. Consumer Behavior - The report emphasizes the high engagement in experiential consumption during the holiday season, with travel and shopping activities showing significant year-on-year growth [2][7]. - The report also highlights the impact of government-issued consumption vouchers in stimulating retail sales across major cities [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to see a 0.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q4 2025, reaching 33.52 billion RMB, which aligns with the company's previous guidance of flat to +5% year-on-year [1][6] - Seasonal factors, such as warmer temperatures in December and a later Chinese New Year in 2026, may impact winter clothing sales and shift some consumer demand [1][3] - The company aims to enhance the service experience for its core SVIP users to maintain consumer loyalty and wallet share, while also considering promotional strategies to attract purchases [1] - The report highlights the importance of shareholder return initiatives in 2026, which could support the company's valuation [1] Revenue and Profitability - The report anticipates a 3.8% year-on-year increase in GMV for Q4 2025, reaching 68.7 billion RMB, with a narrowing gap between GMV growth and revenue growth [2] - The expected gross margin for Q4 2025 is 22.9%, reflecting a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points due to increased investments in user engagement [2] - The non-GAAP net profit margin is projected to be 8.2% for Q4 2025, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Conditions and Policy Impact - The report notes that online retail sales of physical goods in November 2025 grew by 3.5% year-on-year, with a decline in the growth rate for clothing and footwear categories [3] - The central economic work conference indicated that expanding domestic demand will be a priority in 2026, which could benefit the company as it operates in the discretionary consumer goods sector [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downwards by 0.1%, 2.6%, and 2.5% to 8.6 billion, 8.8 billion, and 9.1 billion RMB respectively, primarily due to lower gross margin expectations [4][12] - The target price for the company is set at $23.26, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 9x for 2026, which is at a discount compared to the average of comparable companies at 14.6x [4][15]

Core Insights - The article presents the "Top 10 Core Assets for 2026" as voted by millions of members from over 70 countries, highlighting the collective wisdom of global investors in navigating market uncertainties [2][5]. Summary by Categories Core Assets - The selected core assets include: - **Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创)**: Market cap of 6,778 million RMB, focusing on AI and advanced manufacturing [3] - **Tencent (腾讯)**: Market cap of 49,160 million RMB, centered on AI applications [3] - **Alibaba (阿里巴巴)**: Market cap of 24,500 million RMB, involved in AI and cloud computing [3] - **Gold ETF (黄金ETF)**: Market cap of 1 million RMB, categorized under precious metals [3] - **Luoyang Molybdenum (洛阳钼业)**: Market cap of 4,279 million RMB, with no specific industry listed [3] - **China Ping An (中国平安)**: Market cap of 12,400 million RMB, in the financial sector [3] - **Dongfang Caifu (东方财富)**: Market cap of 3,663 million RMB, with no specific industry listed [3] - **Wanhua Chemical (万华化学)**: Market cap of 2,400 million RMB, in the chemical industry [3] - **WuXi AppTec (药明合联)**: Market cap of 1,515 million RMB, in the pharmaceutical sector [3] - **Trip.com Group (携程集团)**: Market cap of 3,250 million RMB, in consumer discretionary [3] Market Context - The investment landscape in China for 2025 is characterized by uncertainties, including fluctuating recovery expectations, geopolitical tensions, and evolving trends in real estate and AI [4]. - The article emphasizes the importance of collective intelligence in investment decisions, asserting that the aggregated insights from millions can effectively guide investors through market complexities [5][7]. Performance Metrics - From 2019 to 2025, the "Top 10 Core Assets Index" achieved a cumulative growth of 318.67%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index (+56.2%) and the Hang Seng Index (-0.82%) [11]. - In 2025, the equal-weighted return of the top assets reached 35.1%, again surpassing the performance of major indices [11]. Selection Criteria - The selected companies must meet four key principles: 1. Represent Chinese enterprises with a domestic market focus 2. Align with future economic directions and create long-term value 3. Possess competitive advantages or potential in emerging sectors 4. Have a projected market cap growth of 20% or more in 2026 [10] Individual Company Insights - **Zhongji Xuchuang**: Expected to benefit from a surge in AI-related demand, with a projected market cap growth of 25%-30% [12]. - **Tencent**: Anticipated to see a 25%-30% increase in adjusted net profit, driven by its strong domestic user base and advertising revenue [13]. - **Alibaba**: Forecasted to achieve a 25%-28% stock price increase, supported by its dual focus on AI and consumer markets [14]. - **Gold ETF**: Positioned as a key hedging tool, with a projected 28%-32% growth in fund inflows [15]. - **Luoyang Molybdenum**: Expected to maintain its leading position in the battery materials sector, with a projected net profit of 320-350 million RMB [16]. - **China Ping An**: Anticipated to grow its market cap by 20%-25%, benefiting from the domestic financial market's recovery [17]. - **Dongfang Caifu**: Projected to see a 22%-28% increase in market cap, driven by the growth in wealth management services [18]. - **Wanhua Chemical**: Expected to achieve a net profit of 155-162 million RMB, supported by domestic demand [19]. - **WuXi AppTec**: Positioned as a leader in the ADC field, with significant growth driven by domestic innovation [20]. - **Trip.com Group**: Forecasted to grow revenue by over 25%, capitalizing on the recovery of domestic travel [21]. Conclusion - The selected core assets reflect a strategic alignment with China's economic growth and key sectors, including AI, renewable energy, finance, and healthcare, emphasizing their potential for long-term value creation [22].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Moutai**: Focus on stable supply and market demand - **Angel Yeast**: Benefiting from cost reductions and market improvements - **Yili**: Anticipating price recovery in dairy products - **Li Ning**: Strategies for inventory and product innovation - **Electric Bicycle Industry**: Focus on leading companies like Yadea and Aima - **Home Appliances**: Impact of subsidy policies - **Pork Farming Industry**: Current market conditions and investment opportunities - **Smart Glasses Market**: Growth expectations and product developments Core Points and Arguments - **Moutai's Strategy**: In 2026, Moutai will maintain stable total supply while reducing high-value product investments and increasing supply of Feitian Moutai to tap into mass market demand, which is expected to stabilize prices in the long term [1][3] - **Angel Yeast's Performance**: Expected to outperform the sector in 2026 due to lower sugar molasses procurement costs and improvements in the domestic restaurant chain [1][4][5] - **Yili's Growth**: Anticipated turning point in milk prices in Q2 and Q3 of 2026, with a focus on product innovation and high-end branding to achieve quality growth [1][5] - **Li Ning's Strategy**: Effective inventory management and product innovation, including new running shoes, are expected to drive revenue recovery, with a projected profit of 2.7 billion yuan in 2026 [1][6][7] - **Electric Bicycle Industry Outlook**: Leading companies like Yadea and Aima are currently undervalued, with a focus on spring sales data to assess market recovery [1][8][9] - **Home Appliance Subsidy Policy**: The renewal of the subsidy policy, totaling 250 billion yuan, is expected to positively impact related sectors, including smart glasses, with projected sales growth of 78% in 2025 [1][11][12] - **Pork Farming Industry**: Continuous reduction in breeding sow capacity presents a window for investment in quality pork stocks, despite recent price recoveries not changing the fundamental supply-demand dynamics [2][31][32] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Smart Glasses Market**: Expected domestic shipment of 4.5 million units in 2025, indicating significant growth potential [1][12] - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies like Jimi Technology, TCL Electronics, and Anke Innovation are highlighted for their low valuations and growth potential in the context of new product lines and market recovery [1][14] - **Pork Industry Valuation**: Current valuations in the pork sector are considered severely undervalued, making it a prime area for investment [2][32] - **Poultry Industry Insights**: The yellow feather chicken market shows promising investment opportunities, while the white feather chicken market faces challenges due to seasonal factors [2][33] This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the discussed industries and companies.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Japanese consumer sector is experiencing a mixed recovery, with Black Friday promotions boosting consumption, but duty-free sales showing negative growth [1][3] - Consumer confidence in Japan has improved significantly, with the consumer confidence index rising to 37.5 in November, the highest since April 2024 [2][9] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking the highest level since 1995, indicating a shift towards normalizing monetary policy [2][11] Macroeconomic Summary - The consumer confidence index increased by 1.7 points from October to November, with notable improvements in perceptions of overall living conditions and income growth expectations [2][9] - November's core CPI remained at 3.0%, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 44 consecutive months, while the overall CPI for goods rose by 4.0% [2][11] - The actual wage in October contracted by 0.7% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than the previous month's 1.3% [2][9] Industry Summary - Black Friday promotions have become a key driver for retail, with companies leveraging exclusive member discounts and early online sales to attract customers [3][15] - Domestic consumers are exhibiting frugal spending habits, focusing on value for money, which has led to a contraction in daily expenditures [3][15] - Duty-free sales have turned negative, primarily due to a decline in high-value goods, although consumables like cosmetics and food continue to grow at double-digit rates [3][15] Essential Companies - In the essential goods retail sector, November same-store sales for PPIH, Aeon, and 7-Eleven increased by 6.9%, 6.3%, and 2.7% respectively, driven by higher average transaction values [4][18] - Welcia and Matsukiyo Cocokara reported same-store sales growth of 4.1% and 3.6% respectively, with customer traffic increasing slightly [4][20] - The beverage sector saw a decline in sales for Suntory and Asahi, with Asahi's sales dropping by 21% due to a cyberattack affecting operations [4][21] Optional Companies - The restaurant sector performed well, with notable same-store sales growth for various chains, including Sally's and Skylark, with increases of 19.0% and 8.9% respectively [5][27] - Clothing sales also showed strong performance, with same-store sales for companies like Shimamura and Uniqlo increasing by 16.0% and 7.6% respectively, driven by seasonal demand [5][29] - Department store sales reached 521.4 billion yen in November, a 0.9% increase year-on-year, marking four consecutive months of growth [5][34] Stock Market Performance - The consumer sector saw most stocks rise from November 28 to December 30, with the service industry and food and beverage sectors increasing by 4.3% and 2.8% respectively [6] - Investment recommendations focus on companies with optimistic profit outlooks, such as Mercari and Kirin Holdings, which have shown strong operational performance [6][6]

Core Viewpoint - Major foreign financial institutions have expressed a positive outlook for China's stock market, driven by accelerating corporate earnings growth, macro policy coordination, and the appreciation of the RMB [1][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Foreign institutions believe that the driving force behind the rise of China's stock market is shifting from "valuation correction" in 2025 to "earnings growth" in 2026 [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs predicts a 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by the end of 2027, primarily driven by a 14% and 12% increase in corporate earnings in 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][5]. - UBS has set a target of 7100 points for the Hang Seng Tech Index and 100 points for the MSCI China Index by the end of 2026, indicating significant upside potential [5]. Group 2: Investment Trends - There has been a net inflow of $83.1 billion into Chinese assets through ETFs since the beginning of 2025, with the technology sector receiving the most inflow at $9.5 billion [10][11]. - Active foreign capital is expected to return more rapidly, with some foreign institutions increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market in preparation for 2026 [12][13]. - The investment opportunities are highly structured, with a focus on technology innovation, green energy transition, and high-quality brands benefiting from consumer recovery [7][9]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is highlighted as having the greatest profit growth potential, with revenue less affected by trade policies [7]. - Traditional sectors are also attracting foreign interest, with improvements in state-owned enterprise earnings and dividend increases drawing long-term capital [8]. - Under the "anti-involution" framework, sectors like cement, solar energy, and chemicals are expected to receive policy support and have attractive valuations [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from various public funds, including Cathay, Zhongou, Great Wall, and Founder Fubon, indicates that the A-share market is expected to transition from a phase of single valuation recovery to a new stage of profit and valuation resonance, with an overall positive investment outlook for the coming year [1] - The three major A-share indices showed mixed performance on December 29, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.04% to 3965.28 points, marking its ninth consecutive day of gains, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.49% and 0.66%, respectively [1] Group 2 - On December 29, six new funds were launched, primarily equity and bond funds, with the Guangfa Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Chip ETF aiming to raise 80 billion yuan [2] - As of November 2025, the total managed scale of 165 public fund institutions reached 37.02 trillion yuan, marking a significant milestone as it surpassed 37 trillion yuan for the first time, with an annual increase of over 3.9 trillion yuan [2] - The technology sector is witnessing a shift as leading companies like Xinyi, Cambrian, Zhongji Xuchuang, and ZTE are attracting significant public fund investments, indicating a transition from speculative narratives to sustainable cash flow as new core assets [2]