Economic Performance - New Zealand's GDP contracted by 0.9% in the second quarter, significantly worse than the expected contraction of 0.3% and following a revised growth of 0.9% in the first quarter [1][5] - The economy is still smaller than its level at the beginning of 2024, indicating a sluggish recovery [3] Monetary Policy Expectations - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is anticipated to lower the official cash rate (OCR) from 3% to 2.5% in upcoming meetings, with a potential 50 basis point cut in October [3][4] - Economists predict further downward risks to the terminal rate of 2.5% due to the significant economic contraction [3] Government Response and Economic Outlook - Prime Minister Christopher Luxon faces pressure to stimulate economic growth ahead of the 2026 elections, with the government attributing economic decline to global events [4] - The unemployment rate has risen to 5.2%, the highest in five years, compounded by reduced immigration and rising living costs, which have suppressed consumer spending [4] Sector Performance - The construction sector saw a 1.8% decline in output, while manufacturing output fell by 3.5%, contributing to the overall economic contraction [5] - Household spending increased by only 0.4% in the second quarter, a significant drop from the 1.4% growth in the first quarter [5]

Joining me now, Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. Sam, always good to have you. Thanks so much for joining us on Fed Day.>> Happy to be here, Caroline. >> So, Sam, the Fed just cut interest rates for the first time this year. It was widely expected, but what's your takeaway.Well, my takeaway is that they're doing pretty much what the street had been anticipating that they cut by 25 basis points and signaled that there's a possibility of two more cuts by the end of this year. So, uh deciding ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing probability of an economic recession in the U.S., currently estimated at 48% according to Moody's Analytics, with historical data suggesting that once the probability reaches this level, a recession is likely to follow [2][5]. - Moody's analysis indicates that the housing market data is a critical component of their economic indicators, with building permit volumes identified as a key predictor of economic downturns. Recent trends show a decline in building permits, which have fallen to their lowest level since the pandemic lockdowns [5][10]. - The article notes that in July, the seasonally adjusted annualized total of residential building permits was reported at 1.35 million units, reflecting a month-over-month decrease of 2.8% and a year-over-year decrease of 5.7% [5][10]. Group 2 - Despite a decrease in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate from nearly 7% to approximately 6.3%, it remains uncertain whether this will sufficiently boost builder confidence or how much further rates may decline [8]. - The Federal Reserve has expressed concerns regarding the housing market, as indicated in the minutes from their July meeting, where they noted worries about weak housing demand, rising supply, and falling home prices [9]. - Residential investment, as a strong predictor of economic recession, has also shown negative trends, with a reported decline of 4.7% in the second quarter, worsening from a 1.3% drop in the first quarter [10].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut in response to the recent slowdown in the job market [2][3] - The meeting occurs at a politically sensitive time, with the Trump administration exerting pressure on the Fed to lower rates and attempting to influence its board composition [2][3] - There is internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the focus on employment weakness over persistent inflation, with some officials questioning the justification for a rate cut given the current unemployment rate of 4.3% and inflation above the 2% target [3] Group 2 - Recent employment data shows a significant decline in non-farm payroll growth, averaging only 29,000 over the past three months, indicating a clear slowdown in the labor market [3] - The Fed faces challenges in determining the neutral interest rate, currently at 4.3%, with estimates for the neutral rate being adjusted upwards, suggesting the need for several more rate cuts to reach a neutral stance [3] - The quarterly economic projections and dot plot regarding the number of expected rate cuts for the year will be closely monitored by the market, with potential adjustments from two to three cuts [3][4] Group 3 - The upcoming meeting represents a critical decision point for the Fed regarding its independence, political pressures, and economic judgments, with implications for both the U.S. and global economies [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials are expected to implement interest rate cuts to address the weakening labor market in the U.S. This marks a shift in monetary policy after a period of inaction due to inflation concerns related to tariffs [1][4] - President Trump has been pressuring for significant rate cuts, adding uncertainty to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. The final attendance list for the meeting may be confirmed on the evening before, with a new board member being confirmed by the Senate [1][4] - The upcoming press conference by Chairman Powell will provide insights into the latest economic forecasts and potential future interest rate directions [4] Group 2 - Analysts note that while officials may agree on rate cuts, disagreements regarding labor market conditions and inflation risks could hinder more aggressive measures. Continuous deterioration in the labor market is necessary for further rate cuts to be considered [4][5] - The composition of the Federal Reserve's voting members is under scrutiny, especially with the recent appointment of Trump's ally, Stephen Moore, which raises questions about the independence of the board [4][5] - There is internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the expected 25 basis point rate cut, with some officials advocating for larger cuts while others prefer to maintain current rates due to concerns over labor market and inflation [5]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi warns that the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession within the next twelve months has risen to 48%, indicating a concerningly high level of risk [1][5] Economic Indicators - Zandi highlights a significant decrease in U.S. residential building permits as a critical signal of impending economic recession, with current permit approvals nearing the lowest levels seen during the pandemic [1] - The ongoing weak demand from homebuyers and an increase in unsold homes have led builders to substantially reduce their development plans [1] Upcoming Data and Federal Reserve Actions - Zandi advises close attention to the upcoming August loan data to be released on September 17, coinciding with a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting where a rate cut is widely anticipated [3] - He suggests that this data may provide the Federal Reserve with additional justification for a rate cut, although he expresses skepticism about the effectiveness of such measures in preventing a recession [3] Overall Economic Outlook - Zandi has repeatedly warned of economic risks, stating that while the probability of recession has not exceeded 50%, the current risk level is historically high and warrants caution [5] - A combination of factors, including a slowdown in the real estate market, tightening credit conditions, and weakened consumer demand, poses a threat to a soft landing for the economy [5] - The effectiveness of potential monetary policy adjustments in countering the current downward pressures remains uncertain, with market participants and economists closely monitoring forthcoming data releases to assess the true trajectory of the U.S. economy [5]

Group 1 - The market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with a significant focus on the upcoming interest rate cut, leading to a cautious approach from investors [1] - An interest rate cut typically results in lower yields on traditional safe assets, prompting capital to flow into higher-yield investments such as stocks, funds, and precious metals, which may positively impact Bitcoin (BTC) prices [1] - However, an interest rate cut may also signal economic recession, causing panic and risk aversion among investors, leading to a sell-off of non-core assets, including stocks and BTC, in favor of cash [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that in 2019, the Federal Reserve cut rates three times, leading to a significant rise in BTC prices before a sharp decline when the cuts were realized, indicating a "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon [3] - In March 2020, an interest rate cut initially caused a market crash, but subsequent monetary easing led to a massive influx of capital into BTC, resulting in a bull market that peaked at $69,000 [3] - Current economic indicators, such as a rising unemployment rate of 4.3% and high inflation, suggest a potential market downturn, with the possibility of a significant sell-off following the upcoming interest rate cut [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate cut cycle, potentially lowering the policy rate by 25-50 basis points [1][8] - Current inflation levels are manageable, with August CPI at 2.9%, and are not expected to hinder the Fed's shift towards easing [2] - Rising recession risks, evidenced by a slowdown in the job market and declining consumer confidence, make preemptive rate cuts likely [5][7] Group 2: Impact on A-Share Market - The anticipated Fed rate cut is expected to significantly boost global capital markets, particularly benefiting the A-share market [9] - A potential influx of foreign capital into the A-share market is anticipated, as historical data shows net inflows during Fed rate cut cycles [9] - The Chinese central bank may gain more operational space for policy adjustments following the Fed's rate cut, potentially leading to additional stimulus measures [10] Group 3: Economic and Market Fundamentals - The Fed's rate cut is likely to enhance external demand for the Chinese economy, positively impacting exports and overall economic growth [13] - A combination of improved funding conditions, policy easing, and a recovering economic backdrop is expected to support a long-term upward trend in the A-share market [16] - Specific sectors such as metals, brokerage firms, and technology are highlighted as having high elasticity and potential for significant gains in a favorable liquidity environment [16]

Core Viewpoint - Ed Dowd, a senior analyst and co-founder of Phinance Technologies, warns that the U.S. economy is facing severe challenges that are being underestimated, particularly in light of the upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which he believes could lead to a "panic rate-cutting cycle" similar to the 2007 financial crisis [1] Economic Data and Trends - Dowd highlights that the recent annual non-farm employment revision data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reveals significant issues with economic data during the Biden administration, indicating that Trump is now dealing with a "disaster" [1] - He predicts that the U.S. real estate market is already weakening and that declining inflation expectations will make it difficult for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts to reverse this trend [1] Investment Recommendations - Dowd suggests that investors should consider safe-haven assets such as gold and land in light of his forecast of a "very deep recession" globally [1] Market Sentiment - Analysts from Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Oppenheimer Asset Management caution that as investors shift their focus to potential economic slowdowns, a more cautious tone may replace the current optimistic sentiment [1] - These analysts indicate that following the anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the recent upward trend in the U.S. stock market may face risks of a temporary halt [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart the interest rate cut process due to alarming signals from the U.S. job market, with significant attention on future easing paths amid internal pressures and the unclear impact of Trump's trade policies [2][3]. Economic Outlook Changes - Since August, both inflation and employment have been under pressure, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.9% year-on-year in August, the highest increase since January, and core CPI at 3.1%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3]. - Initial jobless claims reached their highest level since 2021, indicating delays in job placements, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% [3]. - The IMF noted signs of pressure on the U.S. economy, including slowing domestic demand and decelerating job growth, with potential inflation risks stemming from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [3][4]. Policy Outlook - The FOMC is expected to reassess its economic and federal funds rate outlook, with Wall Street anticipating a slight downward adjustment in the 2025 economic growth forecast and a stable inflation prediction [4]. - Wells Fargo predicts a reduction in the median interest rate forecast for 2025 from a 50 basis point cut to a 75 basis point cut, with a further reduction for 2026 [5]. - The updated "dot plot" will help determine whether the FOMC members favor "quarterly cuts" or "continuous cuts," with a terminal policy rate expected to be between 3.00%-3.25% by the end of 2026 [5]. Interest Rate Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [6]. - There are indications of potential dissent within the Fed, with some members concerned about rising inflation while others focus on preventing a possible recession [6]. - The futures market shows an 80% probability of a rate cut in October, with expectations for cuts in September, October, and December [6][7]. Future Rate Cut Signals - Analysts suggest that Powell may signal three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December to mitigate risks in the job market [7]. - However, there remains uncertainty regarding future policy directions, which will depend on upcoming inflation and employment data [7].