日元年初以来整体升值的走势主要是由于美元自身在贬值，兑其他货币的升值微乎其微。"结构性 日元抛售"是原因之一，其中根深蒂固的是日企为了开展海外业务而进行的直接投资…… 日元对美元汇率徘徊在1美元兑145日元区间，超过150日元的日元贬值局面似乎已经结束。但这 仅仅是美元贬值推高了日元汇率，日元贬值局面还没有完全结束。其根源在于"日本的弱势"，能 否改变这一点将左右日元贬值的真正扭转。 道富环球投资管理（State Street Global Advisors）的首席投资官（CIO）新原谦介指出，"最近 几年美元实际汇率处于在历史上也偏高的状态。特朗普总统就任后，美元有了"卖出的理由"，美 元升值的调整开始"。 日元兑美元以外货币的升值微乎其微。日元兑欧元汇率6月20日创出2024年7月以来的低水平， 对兑士法郎和新台币也处于2025年初以来的低水平。 日本银行（央行）1月进行了加息。加息通常会引起货币升值。在此期间，投机资金的日元买入 膨胀至历史最高水平，但"日元对美元以外的汇率却不可思议地并未升值"（另一位日系银行的经 纪人）。 导致2021年以后日元贬值的"结构性日元抛售"是原因之一。其中根深蒂固的是日铁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has entered a bearish phase, with the dollar index dropping approximately 10.9% year-to-date, reaching its lowest point since March 2022 at 96.99 [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Expectations - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have indicated support for a rate cut in July, leading to heightened expectations among Wall Street for accelerated rate cuts [3][7]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July has surged to 23%, up from less than 15% a week prior, with some market bets reaching as high as 40% [3][7]. - Wall Street capital is increasingly betting on dollar depreciation, driven by a "buy the expectation" trading strategy as the market anticipates faster rate cuts [3][7]. Group 2: Speculative Positions and Dollar Weakness - Speculators' net short positions on the dollar have risen to $15.69 billion, the highest level since January [3]. - The expectation that the new Federal Reserve chair will align with President Trump's aggressive rate cut demands is contributing to the dollar's downward pressure [4][7]. - Morgan Stanley predicts a further 5.7% depreciation of the dollar index over the next 12 months due to various economic concerns [7]. Group 3: Renminbi Performance and Market Sentiment - The offshore renminbi has appreciated to its highest level since November 2022, with the dollar trading at 7.1517 against the renminbi [5]. - The renminbi's appreciation has been relatively modest at around 3% compared to other major currencies, which have seen larger gains [5][9]. - Emerging market funds are increasingly shifting from bearish to bullish positions on the renminbi, anticipating a rebound due to easing trade tensions and expectations of Fed rate cuts [6][10]. Group 4: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The broader context for the dollar's decline includes perceptions that the US economy is slowing faster than other regions, prompting capital outflows [8]. - The current high level of the US-China interest rate differential is limiting the renminbi's appreciation potential [10]. - Emerging market funds are adjusting their strategies in response to the Fed's anticipated rate cuts, with many now favoring the renminbi as a potential beneficiary of the dollar's weakness [10][11].

Group 1: Core Views - The US dollar index fell below 97, reaching a new low since February 2022, with a daily drop of 0.72%, while non-USD currencies strengthened significantly [1][4] - Morgan Stanley analysts predict a 40% chance of a US economic recession in the second half of 2025, primarily due to escalating tariffs leading to stagflation [2][6] - UBS Wealth Management's report indicates that the dollar index has dropped to a three-year low, with expectations of further weakening due to uncertainties in the US economic outlook and rising fiscal deficit concerns [5] Group 2: Non-USD Currency Dynamics - The Taiwanese dollar has appreciated significantly, with foreign speculative funds increasing, prompting Taiwan's central bank to request the exit of overseas investors engaging in speculative bets through ETFs [1][8] - Despite the strengthening of non-USD currencies, investors have reduced long positions in the Thai baht and increased short positions in the Indian rupee, while turning bearish on the Philippine peso for the first time since early March [1][9] - The trend of foreign investors using reverse ETFs to hedge against market risks while betting on the appreciation of the Taiwanese dollar has raised concerns about its impact on the export-oriented economy [8]

欧元/美元 如果美元进一步走弱 欧元可能升至1.20 金十数据6月26日讯，荷兰国际集团分析师Francesco Pesole在一份报告中称，欧元兑美元在1.17附近面 临强劲阻力，此前曾短暂突破该水平，触及逾三年半高位。如果欧元持续突破1.17美元，可能会为进一 步上涨至1.20铺平道路，尽管这需要美元进一步贬值。在美媒报道特朗普考虑提前宣布美联储主席鲍威 尔的继任者后，美元走弱，欧元随之反弹。Pesole说，北约同意5%的国防开支目标，以及特朗普对美国 盟友的和解态度，可能也会支持欧元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that despite recent geopolitical stability leading to a pullback in gold prices, there is an expectation for a significant upward movement in gold prices in the coming months, driven primarily by the anticipated decline in the value of the US dollar and the creditworthiness of US Treasury bonds [1]. Group 1: Signals for Gold Price Increase - The first signal for a potential rise in gold prices is the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with indications from Fed officials suggesting a possible rate cut in July [2]. - The second signal is the expansion of US debt, particularly through the proposed "Great Beautiful Plan," which includes significant tax cuts and an increase in the debt ceiling, potentially leading to a loss of confidence in US Treasury bonds [3]. - The third signal is the decline in the US dollar index, which has dropped approximately 8% this year, indicating a negative correlation between the dollar's value and gold prices, suggesting that as the dollar depreciates, gold prices are likely to rise [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy - The article highlights that significant market movements often occur in multiple phases, and the current gold market is characterized by a strong upward trend, with expectations that any price adjustments will be limited [5]. - It is recommended that investors consider allocating a portion of their funds to gold while maintaining investments in stable income-generating assets to balance risk and return [5].

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-06-24 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《"以旧换新"蓄动力，"过境免签" 新亮点》 - 2025.06.17 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：关税扰动下，联储降息仍需等待 ⚫ 核心观点： 上周美联储召开议息会议，决定继续维持联邦基金目标利率在 4.25%-4.5%区间。当前，关税上调可能带来的阶段性扰动仍是美联储 进一步降息的主要掣肘。预计下一次降息将在 9 月份开启，若届时能 够确认关税对通胀的影响为一次性的价格调整，不具备持续性，美联 储可能会在四季度连续降息。 历史经验表明，美元熊市多发生在美国货币政策相对其他主要经 济体更宽松、经济增速下滑、财政赤字扩大等宏观背景下，典型的美 元熊市周期通常有 20%-40%的下跌空间，持续时间往往长达 5-6 年， 目前贬值幅度尚未到位。当前继续看空美元的理由主要包括：1）美国 经济相对走弱，2）国际投资者的 ...

美元信用遭遇多重撕裂，美国政府信用呈边际递减。 尽管市场对美国政府的偿债能力不断提出质疑，但似乎很难羁绊住美国国债进一步肿大的趋势，且在日 前完成了一笔220亿美元30年期国债发行后，美国联邦政府债务总额至今年6月底也升至36.22万亿美元 的历史最高纪录。 不仅如此，特朗普直接操盘的"大而美"法案推出了提高债务发行上限的顶层设计，甚至参议院正在酝酿 取消债务上限的法案，果如是，美国政府的借债融资将打破原有的边际约束而滑向肆意妄为的自由化状 态，而与此相伴随，已现恶化生态的美债信用风险也会被推到更加敏感的位置。 美元信用遭遇多重撕裂 "金本位"制度下，美元与黄金挂钩，获得了任何非美货币不可能具有的稳固信用基础；布雷顿森林体系 解散后，美元虽与黄金脱钩，但转身拥抱了石油，且这种绑定关系延续至今，美元的霸权地位由此确 立，其显赫价值也得到充分外溢，无论是在国际货币基金组织（IMF）特别提款权篮子中，还是在世界 所有国家外汇储备仓库中，抑或是国际贸易结算和全球外汇交易市场上，美元都占有绝对多的权重。 基于以上特殊的地位，美元已经超出了单一主权货币的性质范畴，被赋予了全球"信用本位"的职责。对 于各国央行而言，购买的 ...

尽管宏观情绪有所改善，但Hatzius警告称，美国对伊朗采取军事行动的风险仍是潜在威胁。虽然预测 市场显示爆发即时冲突的概率略有下降，但原油价格较6月初仍上涨约10美元/桶，折射出市场对局势升 级乃至霍尔木兹海峡中断的深层忧虑。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管地缘冲突频发且贸易环境动荡，美元近期的疲软表现仍令市场困惑。对此，高 盛在题为《失声之犬》(The Dog That Didn't Bark)的最新报告中指出，即便短期衰退忧虑缓解，周期性 利好因素仍不足以抵消美国经济面临的结构性阻力。 高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在6月21日的报告中阐释："我们认为，周期性顺风不足以抵消更长期的逆 风。"他特别指出，美元表现逊色的根源在于两大结构性挑战：一是估值仍处历史高位，二是吸引非对 冲资本流入为占GDP 4%的经常账户赤字融资的难度与日俱增。 该行外汇策略团队预计美元将延续跌势，尤其对欧元和日元等汇率可能进一步走弱。其他重要预判包 括：黄金价格将重启升势，英国短期利率有望下行。 关税趋稳难驱阴霾 虽然预期中的美国关税上调幅度趋于稳定为金融市场带来些许宽慰，但美元依旧萎靡不振。高盛预测 2025年美国实际关税税 ...

基于以上种种风险因素，Thu Lan Nguyen 做出预测，预计到 2026 年 9 月，欧元兑美元汇率将从目前的 1.1561 升至 1.20。更值得警惕的是，还存在一种极端 风险，即如果投资者信心彻底崩溃，越过临界点，美元的贬值幅度可能远超预期。 Thu Lan Nguyen 指出，美国政策难以出现根本性转变，成为美元贬值的重要推手。特朗普执政期间推行的关税政策，原本旨在保护美国本土产业、重塑贸 易格局，却在实际执行过程中产生了诸多意想不到的负面效应。这些政策不仅引发了全球范围内的贸易摩擦，还打乱了原有的国际贸易秩序。从经济层面来 看，关税的增加使得美国企业进口成本大幅上升，挤压了企业利润空间，阻碍了企业的扩张与创新，进而削弱了美国经济的增长优势。而经济增长优势的弱 化，直接冲击了美元作为避险资产的稳固地位。以往，在全球经济动荡或不确定性增加时，美元凭借美国强大的经济实力与稳定的金融体系，成为投资者避 险的首选货币。但如今，美国经济增长势头受挫，投资者对美元的避险信心逐渐动摇，转而寻求其他更为稳定的避险资产，这无疑加速了美元的贬值进程。 与此同时，美元作为世界储备货币的地位也岌岌可危。长期以来，美元在国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is experiencing one of its worst years, with significant declines against major currencies, largely attributed to Trump's policies and their impact on investor confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Decline Factors - The dollar has fallen over 10% against the euro, pound, and Swiss franc, driven by Trump's tax cuts and trade policies, which pose risks to the budget deficit and economic growth [1]. - Trump's public attacks on the Federal Reserve and the introduction of punitive tax measures for international investors have eroded confidence in the stability of the US financial system [1]. - The traditional positive correlation between US Treasury yields and the dollar has broken down, with the dollar continuing to weaken despite rising bond yields [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - A recent survey by Bank of America indicates that fund managers are reducing their dollar holdings at the highest rate in 20 years, suggesting that the most painful trade this summer is being long on the dollar [6]. - The World Gold Council's survey reveals that nearly three-quarters of central banks expect their dollar-denominated reserves to decrease within five years, up from 62% last year [6]. - Concerns about US policy uncertainty are leading more exporters to reject the dollar as a settlement currency, indicating a shift in international trade practices [6]. Group 3: Government Financing and Market Reactions - The US government faces an annual financing need exceeding $4 trillion, and a continued decline in the dollar could deter international creditors [7]. - Analysts warn of a potential vicious cycle where foreign investors withdraw, leading to higher borrowing costs and further weakening the dollar [7]. - Despite the dollar's decline, the Trump administration appears indifferent, only expressing traditional support for a "strong dollar" without taking substantial action [7][8].