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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 11, the liquidity situation was slightly tightened while remaining stable. Market sentiment weakened, and the bond market experienced overall volatile adjustments. Convertible bond market indices followed the upward trend, but most individual convertible bonds declined. Yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally rose, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies also generally increased [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory Bond Market News Domestic News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference concluded successfully on the morning of March 11 [4] - The 14th National People's Congress Financial and Economic Committee proposed to actively and orderly resolve local debt risks, optimize the debt structure of central and local governments, strengthen the efficiency assessment of local government special bond projects, and increase support for resolving non - standard and "double non" debts [5] - The committee also suggested continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, reducing capital costs, and guiding funds to flow into the real economy [6][7] International News - On March 11, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the CPI in February increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.5% year - on - year. The market generally expected the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in the next week's meeting, but some investors thought the Fed might need to maintain high interest rates for a longer period due to potential inflationary pressures from the war [8] - On March 11, the U.S. government announced a "Section 301" investigation targeting 16 economies including South Korea, China, and Japan, aiming to seek new tax measures [9] Commodities - On March 11, WTI April crude oil futures rose 4.55% to $87.25 per barrel, Brent May crude oil futures rose 4.76% to $91.98 per barrel, COMEX April gold futures fell 0.28% to $5183.9 per ounce, and NYMEX April natural gas futures rose 5.46% to $3.227 per million British thermal units [10] Liquidity Situation Open Market Operations - On March 11, the central bank conducted 265 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method with an operation rate of 1.40%. With 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net capital withdrawal was 140 billion yuan [12] Funding Rates - On March 11, the liquidity situation was slightly tightened while remaining stable, and major repurchase rates increased. DR001 rose 4.51bp to 1.370%, and DR007 rose 2.42bp to 1.465% [13] Bond Market Dynamics Interest - rate Bonds - Spot bond yields: On March 11, market sentiment weakened, and the bond market experienced overall volatile adjustments. As of 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 rose 0.65bp to 1.8140%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250220 rose 0.55bp to 1.9795% [16] - Bond issuance: Information on the issuance scale, winning bid yields, and other aspects of multiple bonds such as 25进出清发007 (additional issue 26) and 26贴现国债16 was provided [18] Credit Bonds - Secondary market trading anomalies: On March 11, 5 industrial bonds had a trading price deviation of over 10%, and 1 urban investment bond had a trading price deviation of over 10% [18][19] - Credit bond events: Huazhong Group may face a book loss of about 797 million yuan due to the potential recovery of idle land, and a subsidiary of Weinan Urban Investment Group was subject to an enforcement of 144 million yuan [20] Convertible Bonds - Equity and convertible bond indices: On March 11, the three major A - share indices rose, and the convertible bond market followed the upward trend. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.34%, 0.14%, and 0.65% respectively. Most individual convertible bonds declined, with 161 rising, 192 falling, and 21 remaining flat [21] - Convertible bond tracking: News such as the upcoming listing of Haitian Convertible Bond, the potential downward revision of the conversion price of Zhongte Convertible Bond, and the early redemption of Baichuan Convertible Bond 2 was reported [27] Overseas Bond Markets - U.S. bond market: On March 11, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally rose. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose 7bp to 3.64%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose 6bp to 4.21%. The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasuries narrowed by 1bp to 57bp, and the yield spread between 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasuries widened by 2bp to 107bp [23][24] - European bond market: On March 11, yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally rose. The 10 - year German government bond yield rose 8bp to 2.93%, and the 10 - year government bond yields of France, Italy, Spain, and the UK rose 9bp, 13bp, 9bp, and 12bp respectively [26] - Daily price changes of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds: Information on the daily price changes, credit entities, bond balances, and other aspects of multiple Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds was provided [29]

Economic Overview - Since the fourth quarter of last year, U.S. inflation has consistently underperformed market expectations, with CPI and core CPI remaining at low levels of 2.4% and 2.5% year-on-year as of February this year[7][10] - The core issue behind the weaker-than-expected inflation is insufficient demand support, particularly among middle and low-income groups whose financial situations have not improved significantly[10][11] Inflation Risks and Trends - The overall inflation risk in the U.S. is expected to remain controllable in 2026, with potential short-term disturbances from tariffs and geopolitical tensions, but lacking a solid foundation for sustained increases[11][30] - Inflation may see a mild rebound in the first half of the year but is expected to gradually ease in the second half, with the Federal Reserve likely to lower interest rates 1-2 times throughout the year[51][53] Tariff and Cost Impacts - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. peaked at 16% but is expected to decrease to 13.7% as the government shifts to a more complex tariff framework[31][33] - Tariffs have already transmitted 40%-76% of their cost impacts to consumer prices, with the remaining untransmitted cost space becoming limited[36] Geopolitical and Oil Price Effects - Recent geopolitical tensions have led to a significant rebound in oil prices, which have risen from below $60 to over $90 per barrel, but the inflationary impact of oil prices is expected to remain manageable[38][42] - Even if oil prices average $80 per barrel this year, the impact on CPI is estimated to be only 0.3-0.4 percentage points[42] Fiscal Policy and Consumer Demand - Current fiscal policies are not expected to provide substantial support for middle and low-income groups, limiting overall demand and inflation recovery[47] - The political landscape complicates the implementation of large-scale fiscal support measures, making it difficult to improve consumer purchasing power significantly[47][49]

Inflation Overview - The February CPI in the U.S. recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Year-on-year CPI growth remained stable at 2.4%, unchanged from January[2] Sector Contributions - Food prices increased by 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in January, with household food prices rising by 2.6%[12] - Energy prices showed a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, with gasoline prices down by 5.6% compared to the previous year[12] - Core CPI year-on-year growth was 2.5%, consistent with January, indicating a slowdown in core inflation[12] Economic Risks - The primary concern is the risk of inflation resurgence due to energy price shocks, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[4] - The market is pricing in potential stagflation risks, with signs of weakening demand and cooling job data[5][14] Future Outlook - The February inflation data does not yet reflect recent oil price fluctuations, which may exert upward pressure on inflation in the coming months[5] - The expectation is for 1-2 interest rate cuts in the third and fourth quarters of the year, contingent on inflation trends[5][15]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced declines due to geopolitical events, with the A-share market seeing the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.93% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.22% [1] - The bond market performed well, with government bonds strengthening and a balanced funding environment observed at the beginning of the month [1][29] - Gold prices fluctuated downwards, influenced by a rebound in the US dollar and weakening expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, while the largest gold ETF showed a reduction in holdings [1][5] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The A-share market faced a temporary emotional shock from geopolitical events, but the impact was limited, and market sentiment improved after the start of the Two Sessions [3] - A barbell strategy is recommended, balancing dividend or free cash flow assets with sectors showing fundamental improvements or policy support [3] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a stable funding environment and neutral supply-demand dynamics [4] - The macro environment of low interest rates is likely to persist, but increased volatility and reduced yield space are anticipated [4] Group 4: Commodity Market Insights - The short-term outlook for gold prices is influenced by the strength of the US dollar and rising bond yields, with a stable long-term allocation logic for gold due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [5][34] - The South China Commodity Index rose by 6.43% this week, with notable increases in energy and chemical sectors [34] Group 5: International Market Insights - The US economic fundamentals remain strong, but geopolitical events and concerns over AI have dampened risk appetite [6] - Investors are advised to consider overseas assets as part of a diversified portfolio, especially in a low daily subscription limit environment for QDII funds [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term and medium - term trends are both "oscillating", the intraday trend is "strong - biased", and the overall view is "range - bound oscillation" due to continuous policy support stabilizing the economic fundamentals [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "strong - biased", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". In the short term, the stock index will mainly be in a range - bound oscillation. The uncertainty of the US - Iran conflict has reduced investors' preference for risky assets, while the domestic macro - economy has strong resilience, mild price levels, and clear policy support, providing strong support for the stock index [5]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | Oscillating | Oscillating | Strong - biased | Range - bound oscillation | Policy support stabilizes economic fundamentals [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Strong - biased - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating - **Reference View**: Range - bound oscillation - **Core Logic**: The stock indexes oscillated narrowly yesterday. The uncertainty of the US - Iran conflict has reduced investors' preference for risky assets. However, the domestic macro - economy has strong resilience, mild price levels, and clear policy support, providing strong support for the stock index. In the short term, the stock index will mainly be in a range - bound oscillation [5]

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 12 日星期四 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周三国债期货主力合约开盘多数低开，全天横向波动，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货 主力合约 TL2606 下跌 0.19%，10 年期 T2606 下跌 0.04%，5 年期 TF2606 下跌 0.03%， 2 年期 TS2606 下跌 0.01%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 265 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日 405 亿元逆回购 到期，合计当日净回笼 140 亿元。 2、资金市场：周三银行间资金市场隔夜利率较上一交易日小幅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term rating of the previously recommended overweight stocks, including stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, is downgraded to neutral. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Most domestic commodity futures markets closed higher, with non - metallic building materials rising across the board. Shipping futures led the gains, while energy products led the losses [1]. - For the expectation of US dollar monetary policy, it is important to determine the current stage of geopolitical conflicts, which affects the market's judgment on inflation and the economy. It is recommended to use the neutral scenario as the benchmark for asset allocation. In the short term, it is advisable to appropriately manage the positions of risk assets such as equities and commodities [1]. - After the release of the "Report", the market's policy expectation of the government's active policy support in the first half of the year will gradually converge, and the market will shift to the verification stage of actual data [1]. - Stock indices may enter a period of shock adjustment, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the expectation of tightened monetary conditions. Investors are advised to pay attention to geopolitical events and domestic economic data before re - evaluating asset cost - effectiveness and portfolio construction strategies [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Most domestic commodity futures closed higher. Shipping futures led the gains, with the container shipping index (European line) rising 7.15%. Non - metallic building materials all rose, with PVC up 5.63%. Chemical products mostly rose, with butadiene rubber up 5.51%. Oils and fats and oilseeds mostly rose, with soybean meal up 3.58%. Agricultural and sideline products mostly rose, with red dates up 2.12%. Black commodities mostly rose, with iron ore up 0.90%. Precious metals showed mixed performance, with Shanghai gold up 0.73%. Energy products led the losses, with crude oil down 9.61%. New energy materials mostly fell, with lithium carbonate down 5.14%. Base metals mostly fell, with Shanghai tin down 0.71% [1]. - **Financial Market**: The performance of financial market products such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures, foreign exchange, and interest rates showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 futures rose 0.43% on the day, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.01% [7]. - **Industry Index**: Different industries in the China Securities Industry Index showed different trends. For example, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry rose 0.73% on the day, while the national defense and military industry fell 1.51% [8][9]. - **Overseas Commodities**: Overseas commodities such as energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products also had different price changes. For example, NYMEX WTI crude oil fell 8.84% on the day, and COMEX gold rose 1.86% [10][11]. - **Domestic Main Commodities**: Domestic main commodities including shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products showed various price movements. For example, the container shipping European line rose 7.51% on the day, and gold rose 0.2% [12][13][14]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Stock Indices**: Affected by the convergence of policy boost expectations and overseas events, stock indices may enter a shock adjustment period, and it is necessary to observe the actual situation of domestic economic data to form the next trend [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Constrained by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions, the performance of non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected from the perspective of financial attributes [1]. - **TS and TF**: Relatively recommended for allocation [1]. 3.3 Short - term Judgment of Each Variety - **Financial**: Stock index futures, stock index options, treasury bond futures, and precious metals are all expected to be in a shock state. The short - term judgment of gold and silver is affected by factors such as inflation expectations, US fundamental data, and Fed monetary policy [4]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping European line is expected to be in a shock - weak state, affected by geopolitical events, the passage volume of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and the situation in the Middle East [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as policy issuance, production and shipment, and cost [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals and new materials are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as supply disturbances, policy changes, and demand expectations [4]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Most energy chemical products are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, oil price fluctuations, and macro - level changes [4][5]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as the situation in the Middle East, oil price fluctuations, and supply and demand [4][5].

Economic Growth Targets - The economic growth target for 2026 is set at approximately 4.5%-5%[2] - The urban unemployment rate is aimed to be controlled at around 5.5%[3] - The goal is to create over 12 million new urban jobs[3] Fiscal Policy Measures - The budget deficit is planned at around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year[3] - General public budget expenditure is expected to reach 30 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan from last year[3] - Special local government bonds are proposed at 4.4 trillion yuan to support major projects and debt replacement[3] Monetary Policy Approach - A moderately loose monetary policy will be maintained, utilizing tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to ensure adequate liquidity[4] - The aim is to align social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations[4] Consumer and Investment Stimulus - A special action plan to boost consumption will be implemented, with 250 billion yuan allocated for supporting the replacement of consumer goods[5] - Central budget investment is planned at 755 billion yuan, with an additional 800 billion yuan in special bonds to support infrastructure and new urbanization[5] Structural Reforms and Innovation - Emphasis on deepening capital market reforms to enhance direct financing and better serve the real economy[2] - Focus on nurturing emerging industries such as integrated circuits, aerospace, and biomedicine, along with support for unicorn companies and innovative startups[6]

1、财政政策：延续"更加积极"基调，规模与协同并重。 2026年政府工作报告明确，将继续实施"更加积极"的财政政策。在具体安排上，2026年赤 字率拟按4%左右安排，与2025年持平，对应赤字规模为5.89万亿元，较上年增加2300亿元。这一 安排既与当前经济企稳向好的趋势相适应，也向市场传递出积极的政策信号，同时有利于保持政 府债务总体可控，增强财政可持续性，并为应对未来可能的风险挑战预留出政策空间。此外，2026 年拟安排地方政府专项债券4.4万亿元，并计划发行1.3万亿元超长期特别国债。财政部部长在十四 届全国人大四次会议经济主题记者会上指出，今年财政政策力度集中体现为"三个新高"：一是全 国一般公共预算支出首次突破30万亿元；二是新增政府债券规模达到11.89万亿元，为近年来最高； 三是中央对地方转移支付总量连续第四年超过10万亿元，安排规模为10.42万亿元。 宏观研究 财政货币政策双轮驱动，赋能我国金融市场行 稳致远 ——十四届全国人大及经济主题记者会点评 2026 年 3 月 11 日 分析师：费小平（SAC 执业证书编号：S0340518010002） 电话：0769-22111089 邮箱： ...