Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" has re-emerged, with a significant decrease in resident deposits and a corresponding increase in non-bank institution deposits, indicating a shift in financial asset allocation [2][10][47]. Financial Data Overview - In October 2025, the credit balance decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.5%, social financing stock fell by 0.2 percentage points to 8.5%, and M1 decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 6.2% [1][9][46]. - Resident deposits decreased by approximately 770 billion yuan, while non-bank institution deposits increased by the same amount, reflecting a "seesaw" relationship [2][10][47]. Loan and Financing Trends - Short-term financing remains dominant in corporate loans, with a 0.6 percentage point increase in short-term loans and bill financing to 10.0%, while medium to long-term loans decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.7% [3][19][48]. - The decline in social financing growth is primarily due to a decrease in net government bond financing, which fell by 560.2 billion yuan in October [3][23][48]. Future Outlook - The stability of social financing is expected to improve with the implementation of two fiscal policies: the full deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and the issuance of 500 billion yuan in local government bond limits [4][26][49]. - These policies aim to stabilize economic operations towards the end of the year and align with early 2026 government bond issuances, creating favorable conditions for economic growth [4][26][49]. Regular Monitoring - In October, new credit totaled 220 billion yuan, a decrease of 280 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily from the residential sector [5][27][50]. - The total social financing added was 815 billion yuan, down 597 billion yuan year-on-year, largely due to declines in government bonds and RMB loans [5][32][50]. - M2 growth fell by 0.2 percentage points to 8.2%, while M1 decreased by 1 percentage point to 6.2%, with significant reductions in both resident and corporate deposits [5][38][50].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank of China announced an 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance amid recent economic downturns [2][2][2] Group 1: Central Bank Actions - On November 17, the central bank will conduct a fixed-quantity, interest-rate tendering, multi-price bidding reverse repurchase operation amounting to 800 billion yuan with a term of 6 months (182 days) [2][2] - This operation follows the maturity of 300 billion yuan in 6-month reverse repos in November, resulting in a net increase of 500 billion yuan in reverse repos, aligning with market expectations [2][2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The larger scale of reverse repos signals the central bank's commitment to using quantitative policy tools to support economic stability and growth expectations [2][2] - Analysts suggest that the central bank will continue to utilize both reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to inject medium-term liquidity into the market [2][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Alumina: Bottom - oscillating [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures and spot market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventory data [1]. - It also presents relevant macro - news such as China's October social financing and loan data, and the end of the US government shutdown [3]. - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are provided, with aluminum and alloy at 1 (indicating a certain upward trend), and alumina at 0 (neutral) [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 22,050, up 170 from T - 1, 420 from T - 5, 1320 from T - 22, and 1260 from T - 66 [1]. - The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,886, unchanged from T - 1, up 43 from T - 5, 216 from T - 22, and 247 from T - 66 [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 295,292, up 71,494 from T - 1 [1]. Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,840, up 19 from T - 1 [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 299,017, up 31,054 from T - 1 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21,340, up 95 from T - 1 and 245 from T - 5 [1]. - The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 9,674, up 3,394 from T - 1 [1]. Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 614,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from T - 1 [1]. - The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 553,200 tons, up 9,100 tons from T - 1 [1]. Alumina - The average domestic alumina price was 2,868, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - The CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 346 US dollars per ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was - 142, down 57 from T - 1 [1]. - The price of Baotai ADC12 was 21,100, up 100 from T - 1 [1]. Macro - news - China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan. The M2 - M1 gap widened to 2.0 percentage points from 1.2 in the previous month [3]. - The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. The six - week shutdown was estimated to reduce Q4 GDP by 1.5 percentage points and cause a net loss of about 1.1 billion US dollars [3]

Group 1: Gold Market - The gold market is experiencing a super bull market, with the London gold price rising from $2,624 per ounce at the beginning of 2025 to a peak of $4,381 per ounce, representing a maximum increase of approximately 67% [1][12][16] - Key drivers of the gold bull market in 2025 include the ongoing interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, a weakening US dollar that fell below the critical support level of 100, and geopolitical uncertainties that have heightened market risk aversion [1][20][24] - For 2026, the outlook for gold remains positive due to expected continued central bank purchases, ongoing liquidity support from the end of the balance sheet reduction cycle, and high fiscal deficits under the "beautiful big plan" which may weaken fiscal discipline [1][34][41] Group 2: Copper Market - The copper market has shown strong performance, with LME copper prices increasing by 24% as of November 12, 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors such as US interest rate cuts and fiscal expansion, alongside supply disruptions [2][15] - The outlook for 2026 remains solid, with expectations of significant supply constraints from copper mines and robust demand from sectors like renewable energy and AI-related electricity needs [2][21][22] - The anticipated continuation of tariffs and the concentration of copper inventories in the US are expected to maintain price premiums for COMEX copper over LME copper [2][41] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is expected to see price increases and valuation adjustments due to rigid supply constraints and steady demand growth, with domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity nearing its limit [3][44] - The aluminum sector has begun to catch up with the overall non-ferrous metal sector after a period of relative stagnation, with aluminum prices breaking previous highs [3][42] - Strong cash flow and dividend capabilities among listed companies in the aluminum sector highlight the attractiveness of this market, with potential for further valuation increases [3][44]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on November 17, 2025, to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 6 months [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC's operation will involve a fixed amount and interest rate bidding with multiple price levels, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management [1][2]. - In November, there will be a total of 500 billion yuan in additional reverse repos, which is an increase of 100 billion yuan compared to the previous month, marking the sixth consecutive month of liquidity injection through reverse repos [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - The increase in liquidity is necessary due to the upcoming issuance of 500 billion yuan in local government bonds and the completion of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments, which are expected to boost loan growth [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's actions are aimed at stabilizing the funding environment, supporting government bond issuance, and encouraging financial institutions to increase credit lending [3][4]. - The fourth quarter is seen as a critical period for growth stabilization policies, with the PBOC's measures being timely and necessary to ensure sufficient market liquidity [3][4].

新华财经北京11月14日电 （刘润榕）11月14日，中国人民银行公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕， 11月17日将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月 （182天）。 "由此，着眼于应对潜在的流动性收紧态势，央行通过买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，有助 于保持资金面处于较为稳定的充裕状态。这在助力政府债券发行，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度 的同时，也将释放数量型政策工具持续加力信号，显示货币政策延续支持性立场。"王青称。 数据显示，11月6个月期买断式逆回购加量续作5000亿元，符合预期。此前，央行已于10月5日开展7000 亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，结合当月7000亿到期量，11月3个月期买断式逆回购为等量续作。由 此，11月两个期限品种的买断式逆回购合计加量续作5000亿元，加量规模较上月高1000亿元，连续两个 月扩大，这也是央行连续第6个月通过买断式逆回购向市场注入中期流动性。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，其背后的主要原因在于，10月安排5000亿元地方政府债务结存限 额，用于化解存量债务及扩大有效投资，这意味着年底前会加发5000亿元 ...

11月14日，人民银行（下称"央行"）发布预告称，将在17日以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展8000亿元买 断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月（182天）。综合11月操作量与到期量看，本次操作意味着当月央行买断式逆回购将实现 加量续作，累计净投放5000亿元。 自去年10月启用以来，央行持续开展买断式逆回购操作补充中长期资金缺口。为进一步提高买断式操作信息披露的时效性， 央行自今年6月起调整为操作前发布招标公告，明确操作日期和操作量等信息，稳定市场预期。 对于国债买卖操作，市场机构更看重央行重启操作的信号意义，预计央行通过买入国债大幅投放流动性的必要性不强。光大 证券固定收益首席分析师张旭此前接受记者采访时表示，无论是否重启国债买卖，央行皆有能力维护银行体系流动性的充 裕。 11月虽有累计1万亿元到期量，但综合央行在11月5日开展的7000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购操作以及最新操作预告来看，央 行在当月累计开展1.5万亿元买断式逆回购操作，为连续六个月加量续作。 责编：战术恒 排版：刘珺宇 校 对： 王朝全 对于央行买断式逆回购继续加量续作，东方金诚宏观分析师王青向证券时报记者指出，5000亿元新型政策性金 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report indicates a natural decline in financial aggregate growth, and mentions points such as downplaying monetary policy quantity targets, maintaining a reasonable interest - rate ratio, and vigorously developing the bond market's "science and technology board". [2] - In October, both CPI and PPI increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Besides the contribution of the low - base effect, the effects of monetary and fiscal policies and industrial policies like anti - involution and capacity reduction are evident, especially in industries such as non - ferrous metals, building materials, and new energy. [2] - October financial data shows a slowdown in social financing and credit growth, with insufficient credit demand. At the same time, non - bank deposits increased by 77 billion yuan year - on - year, and the process of deposit transfer continues. [2] - The US federal government's temporary appropriation bill was passed, ending the 6 - week shutdown. The shutdown pulled down the US fourth - quarter annualized GDP growth rate by 1.5%, and the secondary impact on residents' lives is hard to estimate. The annual appropriation is still undetermined, and there may be another shutdown in two months. [2] - After the shutdown ended, the market trading theme shifted to interest - rate cuts. Hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a significant decline in the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut, triggering a sharp drop in US stocks and an increase in US bonds. [2] - This week's full - A trading volume was basically flat compared to last week, maintaining at around 2 trillion yuan per day. The margin trading balance rose slightly to nearly 2.5 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index once reached a new high since 4000 points but fell back at the end of Friday's session, declining 0.18% for the whole week. Major broad - based indexes turned negative at the end of Friday's session, with the CSI 300 and CSI 500 falling more than 1% for the week, the SSE 50 closing flat, and micro - cap stocks performing outstandingly. The correction of the STAR Market and ChiNext continues. [2] - In terms of basis, the recent basis fluctuation range is still small. The annualized basis of each variety has decreased compared to last week. The IH has switched to a slight discount state, and the annualized discounts of IF, IC, and IM have reached around 3%, 11%, and 14% respectively, with the term structure becoming steeper, and far - month contracts having a greater advantage in hedging costs. [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Weekly Forecast Conclusion - This week's model predicts that the movement directions of the basis for IH, IF, IC, and IM next week are strengthening, weakening, weakening, and weakening respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 800 billion yuan reverse repo operation on November 17, indicating a continued increase in liquidity support for the banking system amid upcoming debt maturities and liquidity tightening factors [1][2]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - The PBOC will implement an 800 billion yuan reverse repo operation with a six-month term, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion yuan for the month [1]. - This operation marks the sixth consecutive month of increased reverse repo operations, with a total of 1.5 trillion yuan conducted in November alone [1]. - The central bank has been using reverse repos to address long-term funding gaps since their introduction last October [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has employed various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio cuts, open market operations, medium-term lending facilities (MLF), and re-lending, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system throughout the year [2]. - In October, the PBOC not only continued with increased reverse repos and MLF but also restarted government bond trading operations [2]. - Analysts expect the PBOC to continue increasing MLF operations despite 900 billion yuan maturing in November, indicating a commitment to maintaining a relatively loose monetary policy [2]. Group 3: Market Expectations - Market institutions view the resumption of government bond trading as a significant signal, although the necessity for large liquidity injections through bond purchases is considered low [2]. - The PBOC's ability to maintain liquidity in the banking system is not dependent on the resumption of government bond trading, as it has sufficient tools at its disposal [2].

央行将开展8000亿元买断式逆回购！ 11月14日，中国人民银行（下称"央行"）发布预告称，将在17日以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开 展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月（182天）。综合11月操作量与到期量看，本次操作意味着当月央 行买断式逆回购将实现加量续作，累计净投放5000亿元。 自去年10月启用以来，央行持续开展买断式逆回购操作补充中长期资金缺口。为进一步提高买断式操作信息披 露的时效性，央行自今年6月起调整为操作前发布招标公告，明确操作日期和操作量等信息，稳定市场预期。 对于国债买卖操作，市场机构更看重央行重启操作的信号意义，预计央行通过买入国债大幅投放流动性的必要 性不强。光大证券固定收益首席分析师张旭此前接受记者采访时表示，无论是否重启国债买卖，央行皆有能力 维护银行体系流动性的充裕。 责编：万健祎 校对： 许欣 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes END 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资 ...