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中国需求井喷!瑞士对华黄金出口激增253% 华尔街大佬一致喊话“买黄金”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 03:09
(来源:今日金价行情) 瑞士海关最新数据显示,2025年8月瑞士对中国的黄金出口环比暴增逾三倍,从7月的9.9吨跃升至35吨,增幅 高达253%,创下2024年5月以来新高。与之形成对比的是,瑞士对美国的黄金出口几近停滞,仅0.3吨,环比 大降99%,凸显全球黄金流向的加速转移。与此同时,受避险需求与债务风险推动,今年金价已飙升38%, 多位华尔街投资大佬齐声看多,呼吁投资者加大黄金配置。 瑞士黄金出口版图重塑:亚洲需求爆发 瑞士是全球最大的黄金精炼与转口贸易中心,其黄金流向变化常被视为全球需求风向标。8月数据表明: 对中国出口35吨,环比猛增253%; 对印度出口15.2吨,环比增长12.6%; 对美国出口仅0.3吨,环比骤降99%。 此前,美国突如其来的关税政策扰乱了市场。7月31日,美国海关致函宣布,将瑞士1公斤和100盎司金条纳入 需缴关税的类别,税率高达39%,为特朗普政府施加的最高关税之一。虽然9月初黄金关税豁免才正式落实, 但8月出口已遭重创。 与此同时,亚洲需求强劲上扬。尤其是中国市场,在居民财富配置多元化、央行持续增持、人民币汇率波动 的背景下,实物黄金购买力明显提升。 金价劲升38% 有望 ...
2025年9月国内金条价格走势分析:高位震荡原因揭秘
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 01:14
Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in domestic bank gold bar prices indicate a high-level oscillation, raising concerns among investors about whether this is a stable signal or a prelude to volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Price Fluctuations - The stability of international gold prices serves as a crucial support for domestic gold prices, with any changes in the global market directly impacting the local market [2]. - Macroeconomic factors such as fluctuations in the US dollar index, rising global inflation expectations, and stock market volatility continuously influence domestic gold prices [2]. Group 2: Unique Advantages of Gold Bar Investment - Compared to stocks and funds, gold bars present lower risk and are less susceptible to market sentiment fluctuations, making them a reliable investment for those with idle funds [4]. - Gold is recognized as a "hard currency" globally, providing excellent value retention during inflationary periods, thus becoming an essential part of many households' asset allocation [4]. Group 3: Timing and Strategy for Investment - Investors should consider their financial situation and investment horizon when deciding the best time to purchase gold bars, especially during high-level oscillation periods [5]. - It is advised to avoid frequent trading and instead adopt a strategy of holding gold bars for the long term, waiting for price increases or liquidity needs before selling [5]. Group 4: Considerations for Purchasing Gold Bars - When buying gold bars, attention should be paid to the brand and purity, with domestic banks typically offering high-purity gold bars (9999) [6]. - Investors should also consider the weight of the gold bars, as smaller weights offer better liquidity while larger weights may require a higher initial investment [6]. Group 5: Market Volatility Management - Investors should not be overly concerned about the recent price fluctuations between 847 and 855 RMB per gram, as such short-term volatility is normal [8]. - Maintaining a calm approach and focusing on long-term holding can help mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [8]. Group 6: Importance of Mindset in Gold Investment - A stable mindset is crucial for gold bar investment, avoiding daily monitoring and not being swayed by short-term market news [10]. - Understanding the right timing for purchases and sales, along with a well-planned financial strategy, is essential for maximizing the value of gold investments [10].
特朗普要300基点,美联储只给25!这一次,谁赢了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 21:19
当华尔街的交易员们紧盯着闪烁的屏幕,期待着美联储降息带来的一波狂欢时,他们感受到的却是深深的困惑,而非预期的兴奋。 9月17日晚,靴子落地,美联储宣布降息25个基点,这本应是市场翘首以盼的利好消息,毕竟,市场已经为此苦等了整整9个月。然而,事与愿 违,股市仅仅是象征性地弹跳了一下,便迅速陷入了沉寂的观望状态。债券市场更是波澜不惊,该涨的没涨,该跌的也纹丝不动。 深入华尔街任何一家大型投行的交易大厅,你都会发现分析师们正眉头紧锁,激烈地探讨着同一个核心问题:这次降息的真正含义是什么?答案 远比表面看起来要复杂得多。 首先,25个基点的降息幅度未能满足市场的预期。考虑到近期疲软的就业数据,许多交易员原本大胆押注美联储会采取更激进的行动,一步到位 降息50个基点。然而,现实却给他们上了一课:央行在政策制定上,永远比你想象的更加保守。 其次,美联储内部的严重分歧加剧了市场的不安情绪。在12名委员中,竟然有人投了反对票,这在过去32年里堪称罕见。更令人惊讶的是,这位 名叫斯蒂芬·米兰的反对者,还是由特朗普亲自提名的"自己人",但他反对的理由并非降息幅度过大,而是认为降息力度还不够。这种内部裂痕释 放出一个危险的信号:就 ...
美联储降息后国际资本流动“再平衡” 人民币资产吸引力提升
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-09-19 20:06
美联储时隔9个月后重启降息。 当地时间9月17日,美国联邦储备委员会(以下简称 "美联储")结束了为期两天的货币政策会议,决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点,至4.00%~4.25%之间。 这是美联储自2024年12月以来的首次降息,也是继2024年三次合计降息100个基点之后,对货币政策的 又一次调整。 多名分析人士告诉21世纪经济报道记者,此次降息符合市场此前预期。在这一政策落地背后,市场仍关 注三大核心问题:美联储为何选择此时降息?本次降息为国际金融市场带来哪些连锁反应?包括中国在 内的经济体又该如何应对新的货币政策空间与挑战? "风险管理式"调整 "对于政策制定者而言,在不断上升的通胀和疲软的劳动力市场之间取得平衡,是一个困境。" 据央视 新闻报道,美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上直言,当前美国经济形势"非常特殊"——通常情况下,劳 动力市场疲软时通胀会同步走低,劳动力市场强劲时则需警惕通胀升温,但如今美国面临的是"双向风 险"——一方面通胀持续攀升,另一方面劳动力市场表现疲弱。 从经济数据来看,美国就业市场的放缓迹象成为推动降息的重要因素。本月初,美国劳工统计局 (BLS)发布非农年度基准修正 ...
【投顾沙龙·西安站】十年蓄势终破局,季末乘风觅机遇
新财富· 2025-09-19 14:14
Group 1 - The article highlights the breaking of a ten-year stagnation in the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a shift in the investment landscape as the market experiences new dynamics [1] - The upcoming event in Xi'an on September 25, 2025, aims to gather fund managers and investment advisors to discuss asset allocation strategies and the value of ETF investments [1][2] - The theme of the salon is "Ten Years of Accumulation Finally Breaks Through, Seizing Opportunities at Quarter-End," emphasizing the importance of strategic investment during this transitional period [2] Group 2 - The salon will provide in-depth analysis of current ETF allocation strategies, focusing on essential investment tools [2] - Insights into emerging market opportunities under a weak dollar backdrop will be shared, broadening global investment perspectives [2] - The event will also cover a comprehensive methodology for investment advisory services, supporting professional transformation and growth in the wealth management sector [2][6]
这个多资产基金经理有些“不一样”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 12:39
Core Insights - The article highlights the growing preference for low-volatility fixed income plus (multi-asset) funds among investors due to market fluctuations and structural changes [1][3] - Feng Fan, a unique fixed income plus fund manager at Yinhua Fund, has demonstrated a new trend in managing these products through quantitative methods, achieving better performance than the CSI 300 index in most years [3][10] Investment Strategy - Feng Fan's investment strategy is characterized by a top-down approach, emphasizing a comprehensive view of the market and macroeconomic factors [6][10] - Her educational background in international economics and financial mathematics has equipped her with both macro and quantitative analytical skills, forming a robust investment framework [7][8] Tactical Asset Allocation - Feng Fan focuses on matching asset allocation with the current macro environment rather than making predictions about future economic changes [12] - She aims to optimize the risk-return profile of the portfolio by carefully considering the equity exposure and bond duration [13][15] Risk Management - The risk management process is divided into three phases: pre-event, during the event, and post-event, with specific targets for maximum drawdown based on expected annual returns [19][20] - Feng Fan employs a quantitative system to guide the timing of increasing positions after a drawdown, ensuring a disciplined approach to risk control [22]
阿里美团大战,「误伤」理想?
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-19 10:35
作者 | 范亮 编辑 | 张帆 8月底,随着美团、阿里、京东的财报相继落地,市场对外卖大战的关注焦点,从初级的补贴与单量竞争,升级为对企业 长期战略定力和财务实力的综合考验。 从自由现金流的角度看,阿里巴巴因持续在云业务等高科技领域投入大量资金,其25Q2自由现金流已经呈现大幅净流出状 态。美团方面,随着外卖业务在25Q3进入传统旺季,单量提升可能带来补贴金额的进一步增加,美团的自由现金流大概率 也会转为净流出。 作为对比,阿里巴巴近期已有出售资产回笼资金的举措,那么,美团会有相应的措施吗? 美团资金:短期充裕 截至2025年上半年,美团账面现金及现金等价物合计1017亿元,受限制现金179亿元,以及短期理财投资694亿元。这三项 合计约1890亿元,表明美团从资产端拥有充足的流动性储备。 进一步对美团的资金偿付能力进行极限压力测试:假设美团需动用其货币性资产(包括现金、短期理财投资及应收款项) 来偿还短期债务(包括各类应付款项、借款及应付票据)。在这种极限情境下,美团的货币性资金总额约为1921亿元,在 偿还主要短期债务约935亿元后,仍能保持约986亿元的现金储备,财务安全垫依然比较深厚。 就未来经营层面 ...
三分钟看懂:资产配置的数学原理
天天基金网· 2025-09-19 10:11
以下文章来源于量化投资 ,作者十拳剑灵 量化投资 . 十拳剑灵|用数据做多元配置 • 百万实盘翻倍全程公开|追求年年稳健盈利 • 陪你穿越牛熊 • 一起慢慢变富 " 资产配置 " 听起来很高大上?别怕,其实它的数学原理超级简单!今天我就用最接地气的方式,带你看懂这个让投资收益更稳的秘诀。 我知道你在担心什么: 怕数学太难?怕分散投资会降低收益? 放心,这些问题我都会帮你解决! 01 核心概念:理解资产间的 " 团队协作 " 想要做好资产配置,关键要懂资产之间的 " 协作关系 "— 用数学语言说就是 " 相关性 " 。这就像 组建一个全能团队 : · 同一工种 (相关系数接近 +1 ):好比团队里全是销售,市场好时一起开单,市场差时一起喝西北风 —— 同涨同跌 · 完美搭档 (相关系数接近 -1 ):就像销售和风控,业务开拓时销售冲锋,风险来临时风控守护 —— 你进我退,相辅相成 · 各司其职 (相关系数接近 0 ):如同技术、运营、市场不同部门,各自为战又共同目标 —— 走势独立,互补共赢 理想的投资组合,就是要组建这样的 " 梦幻团队 " 。这背后的数学原理,是诺贝尔奖得主马科维茨提出的现代投资组合理论: ...
阿里美团大战,“误伤”理想?
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-19 09:24
Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market has shifted from basic competition in subsidies and order volume to a comprehensive assessment of the long-term strategic determination and financial strength of companies like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com as their financial reports are released [1] Financial Performance - Alibaba's free cash flow has shown a significant net outflow due to substantial investments in high-tech areas like cloud services, with a free cash flow of negative figures in Q2 2025 [1] - Meituan is expected to see a similar trend, with its free cash flow likely turning into a net outflow as its food delivery business enters the traditional peak season in Q3 2025 [1] Cash Reserves and Liquidity - As of mid-2025, Meituan has a total of 101.7 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, with restricted cash of 17.9 billion yuan and short-term investments of 69.4 billion yuan, totaling approximately 189 billion yuan, indicating strong liquidity [2] - In extreme stress tests, Meituan's monetary assets can cover its short-term debts of about 93.5 billion yuan, leaving a cash reserve of approximately 98.6 billion yuan, suggesting a solid financial cushion [2] Future Cash Flow Projections - Meituan's EBITDA for the full year of 2025 is projected to be negative 4.5 billion yuan, with a significant cash outflow expected in the second half of 2025, potentially exceeding 20 billion yuan [2][3] - If the high subsidy expenditures for food delivery and flash purchase businesses continue, Meituan's cash reserves could decrease to between 50 billion and 70 billion yuan by the end of 2026 [3] Asset Optimization Strategies - Meituan has shown signs of optimizing its asset structure, with long-term investments totaling 43.4 billion yuan as of mid-2025, down from 48.8 billion yuan at the end of 2024, indicating a strategy to increase cash reserves [4][5] - The company has also reduced its long-term financial investments by 6.4 billion yuan and short-term financial investments by 2.8 billion yuan, reflecting proactive measures to bolster cash reserves [5] Potential Asset Liquidation - Meituan's significant holdings in listed companies, particularly in Li Auto, may be considered for liquidation to support core business development if necessary [6][8] - The potential sale of Li Auto shares could provide substantial cash flow and significantly enhance the company's net profit, given the floating profit of approximately 8 billion yuan from this investment [8] Market Impact on Li Auto - If Meituan decides to reduce its stake in Li Auto, it may exert downward pressure on Li Auto's stock price, although the impact may be limited if Li Auto maintains strong fundamentals and competitive products [9]
报!私募山庄惊现七把绝世神兵
雪球· 2025-09-19 08:37
Core Viewpoint - The article presents a metaphorical exploration of various investment strategies in the private equity space, likening them to legendary weapons, each with unique strengths and weaknesses, suitable for different market conditions and investor preferences [2][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The first strategy, "Qinglong Yanyue Dao" (Subjective Long), relies heavily on the fund manager's ability to select stocks and time the market, performing well in bullish markets with clear themes [9][10][15]. - The second strategy, "Xuedizi" (Quantitative Long), utilizes complex algorithms to identify stocks based on specific metrics, excelling in active markets with high trading volumes [18][20][23]. - The third strategy, "Zhuge Lian" (Macro Hedging), involves top-down asset allocation across stocks, bonds, and commodities, generally effective in diverse market conditions but can fail during extreme events [26][30][31]. - The fourth strategy, "Fang Tian Hua Ji" (CTA Strategy), focuses on futures markets, capturing trends regardless of price direction, suitable for markets with significant price movements [33][35][39]. - The fifth strategy, "Taiji Shuang Jian" (Market Neutral), aims to generate absolute returns by hedging market risks, effective in bear and volatile markets but may underperform in bull markets [41][45][48]. - The sixth strategy, "Ruan Wei Jia" (Fixed Income +), combines high-quality bonds with a small allocation to riskier assets, providing stability but vulnerable to rising interest rates [50][53][56]. - The seventh strategy, "Xiu Hua Zhen" (Arbitrage), exploits price discrepancies across markets, generating small but cumulative profits, effective in volatile conditions but reliant on market efficiency [58][61][63]. Group 2: Strategy Suitability - Each strategy is designed for specific market conditions, with subjective long strategies thriving in bullish environments, while quantitative strategies excel in active trading scenarios [15][23]. - Macro hedging strategies are versatile but can falter during extreme market events, while CTA strategies benefit from significant price trends [31][39]. - Market neutral strategies provide a buffer against market downturns, whereas fixed income plus strategies are contingent on interest rate movements [48][56]. - Arbitrage strategies are most effective in volatile markets but depend on the quick correction of price discrepancies [63]. Group 3: Conclusion - The article concludes by encouraging investors to choose strategies that align with their risk preferences, highlighting the importance of understanding each strategy's unique attributes and market applicability [67][69].