沪铜产业日报 2025/6/25 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 78,810.00 | +170.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,699.00 | +30.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 180.00 | +40.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 137,637.00 | -12728.00↓ | | ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by 0.21%, -0.15%, and 0.02% respectively, while the NASDAQ China Technology Index fell 1.26% and the Hang Seng Index dropped 1.52% from 20250616 - 20250622 [2] - Most A - share sectors declined, with the banking sector leading the gain. The wind All - A Index changed - 1.07%, and among 30 CITIC industries, only 4 rose and 26 fell, with the banking sector having a weekly gain of over 3% [3] - Interest - rate bond prices rose slightly and the yield curve shifted downward. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.12%, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond fell 0.44 BP to 1.6396% [4] - The US Treasury bond yield decreased and the curve shifted downward. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield dropped 3 BP to 4.38% as of June 20, 2025 [7] - The US dollar appreciated and the gold price fell. The US dollar index increased 0.63%, and the London gold spot price dropped 1.95% to $3,368.25 per ounce [8][9] Group 2: Market Liquidity and Policy - The capital price was divided, and the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 102.1 billion yuan from 20250616 - 20250622 [5] - The bond market leverage level increased, with the 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume rising from 7.95 trillion yuan on June 13 to 8.32 trillion yuan on June 20, 2025 [6] - The Fed's June FOMC meeting did not cut interest rates, maintaining the rate in the 4.25 - 4.50% range. The median forecast for the 2025 interest rate is 3.9%, equivalent to two rate cuts [10] - The loose monetary policy at the Lujiazui Forum did not materialize. The central bank governor announced eight financial opening - up measures but no specific monetary policy operations [11] Group 3: Geopolitical Situation - The conflict between Israel and Iran may continue, which could affect the improvement of market risk preference [12] - The US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21, 2025. The conflict may be limitedly escalated, and its duration may be extended [13][14] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The report is optimistic about the oil and gas and banking sectors in A - shares, as well as opportunities in the bond market and gold. A - shares are at a relatively high level in the shock range, and the yield of domestic interest - rate bonds has limited decline [15][16]

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the retail sector leading gains. As of the market opening, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3419.09 points, down 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10240.13 points, up 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index at 2073.26 points, up 0.44% [1] Economic Policies and Initiatives - The People's Bank of China, along with six departments, issued guidelines to support consumption, emphasizing the need for a coordinated capital market to promote stable development and innovative financial products to meet household wealth management needs [2] - The Ministry of Commerce announced the organization of a "New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season" in 2025 to promote electric vehicle adoption in rural areas [2] - Guangdong Province released a plan to stimulate economic growth by promoting the replacement of old products in sectors such as automotive and home appliances [3] Corporate Announcements - Youyan New Materials announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary plans to introduce strategic investors, with a total investment of 300 million yuan from the second phase of the Big Fund [4] - Youngor Group reported the sale of financial assets, including shares in CITIC and CITIC Bank, with a total transaction amount of 4.175 billion yuan [5] - Changchuan Technology plans to raise no more than 3.132 billion yuan through a private placement for semiconductor equipment research and development [6] - Tailin Microelectronics expects a 267% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of the year [7] - Huatai Securities has been approved to issue up to 10 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds [9] International Context - The U.S. stock market saw gains, with the Nasdaq up 1.43%, the Dow Jones up 1.19%, and the S&P 500 up 1.11%, marking new closing highs since early March and late February respectively [10] - International oil futures experienced significant declines, with WTI crude oil futures for August down 6.04% and Brent crude oil futures down 6.07% [10] - Goldman Sachs maintained an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, projecting a target of 4600 points for the CSI 300 Index, indicating approximately 10% upside potential [10]

2、定价与包装 证券行业通过IPO 承销、债券发行、并购重组等投行服务，将资本进行市场化配置，用于支持企业融资、产业升级和重大项目建设，实现资本与技术、资 源的深度融合，最终达到经济结构优化与高质量发展，促进产业升级的目的。这三种服务看似独立，实则环环相扣，共同实现 "资本聚集 — 资源分配 — 产业升级" 的全链条赋能。 定义与核心机制 IPO 承销是证券公司协助企业首次公开发行股票（IPO）并上市的全过程服务。通俗来说，就是帮企业把部分股权变成可在股市交易的 "商品"，让公众投 资者成为企业股东，从而为企业筹集发展资金。具体流程包括： 1、前期诊断 承销商对企业进行全面尽职调查，确认财务、法律、业务合规性，确保企业符合上市标准。 根据企业估值确定股票发行价格，制作 "招股说明书" 向投资者展示企业价值。 3、市场推广 通过 "路演"向机构投资者（如基金公司）和散户介绍企业，吸引购买股票。 4、销售与稳定 承销商负责股票销售，若上市后股价波动过大，会通过 "绿鞋机制"买卖股票，防止股价暴跌，保护投资者信心。 什么是"绿鞋机制"？ 绿鞋机制，学名为超额配售选择权，是 IPO 承销过程中一种特殊的价格稳定工具， ...

广东：重点支持深交所深化创业板综合性改革 智通财经6月24日电，广东省人民政府办公厅印发《广东省促进经济持续向好服务做强国内大循环工作 方案》，其中提及，实施推动资本市场高质量发展政策文件，重点支持深交所深化创业板综合性改革， 丰富科技创新债券产品体系，优化科技创新债券发行管理流程，依托区域股权市场深化私募股权投资基 金份额转让试点。 ...

光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 06 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场低位反弹，Wind 全 A 上涨 0.85%，成交额 1.15 万亿元。中 | | | | 证 1000 指数上涨 1.31%，中证 500 指数上涨 0.61%，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.29%， | | | | 上证 50 指数上涨 0.41%。计算机、国防军工、煤炭和银行等多板块领涨，食 | | | | 品饮料跌幅明细。海外地缘冲突不确定性引发大宗商品价格大幅波动，目前 | | | | 冲突存在进一步扩大化的可能。但与 2022 年不同，本轮冲突与我国资本市 | | | | 场相关性更低，引发 A 股出现大幅回调的可能性不高，近期指数走弱主要是 | | | 股指 | 因为 6 月上旬指数冲高后面临一定的抛压导致。陆家嘴论坛召开，各部门主 | 震荡 | | | 要领导发言，制定了一系列资本市场深化改革的举措，对于未来改善投资环 | | | | 境、稳定市场信心颇为重要。基本面来看，5 月 PPI 同比-3.3%，较 4 月环比 | | ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower but rebounded significantly, with the brokerage sector experiencing a substantial increase, particularly stocks like Xiangcai Co. and Guosheng Jin控 rising over 10% [1] - The introduction of the "Science and Technology Innovation Board Growth Layer" reform is expected to create more business opportunities for brokerages, potentially easing IPO regulations on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, which is favorable for investment banking and related services [1] - The brokerage ETF (159842) tracks leading companies in the brokerage industry, and its performance is closely tied to market conditions, indicating high elasticity as market sentiment improves [1] Group 2 - Zhongyuan Securities forecasts that by the second half of 2025, retail brokerage, proprietary trading, and margin financing will be the main drivers of industry growth, with proprietary trading revenue expected to reach a near ten-year high in 2024 [2] - Interest net income showed a significant rebound in Q1 2025, with expectations of reversing a three-year decline throughout the year, indicating potential stability in earnings [2] - Given the current low valuation levels, if the capital market becomes more active, the brokerage sector has the potential to challenge average valuations, presenting medium to long-term investment value [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the significant growth of the ChiNext 50 ETF managed by Harvest, with a notable increase in both scale and turnover, indicating strong investor interest and market performance [2][5] - As of June 23, the average daily trading volume of the ChiNext 50 ETF over the past year was 31.93 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 2.4% on a specific trading day [2] - The ChiNext 50 ETF has seen a scale increase of 247 million yuan in the last three months, ranking first among comparable funds, and a share increase of 26.5 million shares, also leading in its category [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the ChiNext 50 Index as of May 30, 2025, include Ningde Times, Dongfang Wealth, and Huichuan Technology, collectively accounting for 65.6% of the index [2] - The individual weightings of the top stocks are as follows: Ningde Times at 25.88%, Dongfang Wealth at 11.23%, and Huichuan Technology at 5.08%, among others [4] - The overall economic environment is showing stability and progress, with the industrial added value in May increasing by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month, reflecting positive economic trends [4] Group 3 - The market outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests limited short-term upward momentum due to fundamental expectations, but a weaker dollar trend and supportive capital market policies may drive A-share market growth [5] - Key catalysts for market upward movement include global fundamental improvements, domestic policy implementation, and the development of emerging industries [5] - Investors are encouraged to consider the ChiNext 50 ETF Harvest linked fund (023429) to capitalize on these investment opportunities [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent case of financial fraud involving *ST Jiuyou highlights the persistent issue of financial misconduct in the capital market, which undermines fairness and transparency, making it difficult for investors to make informed decisions [2] Group 1: Financial Fraud Impact - Financial fraud severely disrupts the healthy development of capital markets, leading to misallocation of resources and hindering the growth of genuinely capable companies [2] - The prevalence of financial fraud increases risks for investors who rely on false financial data, likening their investment decisions to navigating in the dark [2] Group 2: Regulatory Measures - Recent tightening of regulatory policies and improvements in laws have provided a robust framework for combating financial fraud, with the new Securities Law significantly increasing penalties for such violations [3] - The regulatory authorities are enhancing collaboration with judicial departments to establish a comprehensive punishment and prevention system for financial fraud [3] - The issuance of the "Opinions on Strictly Implementing the Delisting System" in April 2024 aims to enforce stricter delisting standards, targeting companies with severe or long-term fraudulent activities [3] Group 3: Market Integrity and Future Outlook - Strict punishment for financial fraud is essential for maintaining the principles of openness, fairness, and justice in the market, thereby enhancing the vitality and resilience of the capital market [4] - A transparent and healthy market environment is expected to attract more investors and quality companies, fostering a virtuous cycle [4] - Continuous improvement of the regulatory system and maintaining a high-pressure stance against financial fraud are crucial for adapting to new fraudulent methods and hidden risks [4]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a professional institutional investor system in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board aims to enhance the identification of high-quality technology enterprises and improve pricing efficiency in the capital market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Introduction of Professional Institutional Investors - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released opinions to pilot the introduction of professional institutional investors for companies meeting the fifth listing standard on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1]. - This initiative is expected to leverage the advantages of market-oriented institutions to accurately identify quality technology companies and guide long-term capital investment [1][2]. - The involvement of professional institutional investors is seen as a key step in supporting technological innovation, with the effectiveness depending on the precise implementation of supporting details and mechanisms [1][5]. Group 2: Mechanism and Benefits - The new system will consider the investment duration, quantity, and proportion of professional institutional investors as references during the registration review for companies applying under the fifth listing standard [2]. - Professional institutional investors are believed to possess unique advantages in identifying high-quality technology enterprises, particularly in assessing the technological attributes and future growth potential of unprofitable companies [2][3]. - The introduction of this mechanism is expected to improve pricing efficiency by reducing information asymmetry and providing a more accurate market valuation of technology companies [3]. Group 3: Comparison with International Practices - Successful practices in mature overseas markets, such as the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, have already implemented similar systems, where professional investors are required for specific industry listings [4]. - Statistics show that companies listed under these rules have experienced significant revenue growth and reduced net losses over three years, indicating the potential benefits of such a system [4]. Group 4: Regulatory Measures and Standards - Regulatory authorities emphasize the need for strict supervision of professional institutional investors to prevent issues like profit transfer and other illegal activities [5]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is developing standards for recognizing professional institutional investors, focusing on investment experience, compliance, and independence [5]. - There is a caution against the "herding effect" among institutional investors, which could exacerbate market volatility, highlighting the need for dynamic adjustments in policies based on technological advancements [5]. Group 5: Future Prospects - If the pilot program proves successful, the professional institutional investor system could be expanded to the ChiNext and other markets, further enhancing the internal pricing mechanism and resource allocation effects in the capital market [6].