【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 24 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周二持仓量增仓 17388 手，成交量相比上 一交易日略微缩量，日内震荡运行，最低 3111，最高 3144，收于 3136 元/吨， 上涨 2 元/吨，涨幅 0.06%。成交量 837866 手。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3320 元/吨，相 比上一交易日维稳。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 184 元/吨。期货贴水较大，一定程度上继续支撑 期货价格。 二、基本面数据 ■宏观面：中央经济会议灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动 性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制。着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库 存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。美联储 12 月降息 25 基点符合预期。宏观预期稳中偏好。十五五规划建议为钢铁行业指明了"减量不 是衰退，而是高质量发展"的转型路径，核心围绕"控产能、优结构、促转型、提 质量"展开。 ■成本端：铁矿石强势，双焦期货企稳上涨，继续提升成本支撑。 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 12 月 ...

【 导读 】 央行将开展4000亿元MLF操作 中国基金报记者 张玲 12月24日，央行发布消息称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，12月25日，中国人民银行将以固 定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展4000亿元MLF（中期借贷便利）操作，期限为1 年期。 招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼表示，12月有3000亿元MLF到期，央 行在25日开展4000亿元MLF操作，加量续作1000亿元，继续向市场投放中期流动性，将进 一步优化市场流动性结构。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，在5月降准之后，央行连续第七个月开展中期流动性净投 放，主要有三方面原因：一是前期安排5000亿元地方政府债务结存限额，用于化解存量债务 及扩大有效投资，这意味着12月还会有一定规模的政府债券发行；二是10月5000亿元新型政 策性金融工具投放完毕，12月会带动配套中长期贷款较快投放；三是12月银行同业存单到期 量明显增加。以上都会在一定程度上收紧银行体系流动性，需要央行给予流动性支持。 12月MLF与买断式逆回购合计净投放中期流动性规模较上月减少3000亿元。王青认为，一方 面，因为当月政府债券净融资规模较前期有所下降； ...

午后，A股大金融板块异动，瑞达期货一度直线涨停，翠微股份、南华期货、永安期货、爱建集团等跟涨。券 商股全线飘红。受此带动，A50跌幅也显著收窄。 那么，究竟发生了什么？分析人士认为，一方面，2025年年报预期可能已经开始发酵，而非银板块的业绩无疑 有较高的确定性。另一方面，虽然12月并没有调降LPR，但降准预期依然存在，市场可能开始预期1月份资金 面宽松的情形。 大金融爆发 平安夜，大金融不平静。今日午后，大金融板块突然异动，瑞达期货一度直线涨停，翠微股份、南华期货、永 安期货、爱建集团等跟涨。随后，券商板块集体拉升。中银证券、东吴证券、国盛证券、华泰证券等涨幅居 前。 那么，究竟发生了什么？此前，券商中国记者曾在此前报道中提及，市场可能已经进入年报预热阶段，而2025 年年报确定性较高的板块主要来自两个方向：一是创业板50成份股中的权重股（算力、新能源），二是券商板 块。2025年前三季度，A股43家上市券商合计实现营业收入4216.23亿元，归母净利润1692.54亿元，分别同比 增长16.88%、62.41%，整体业绩迎来大幅增长。 另一方面，虽然12月份LPR未能调降，但市场对于降准等货币宽松政策仍有 ...

智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，本轮牛市躁动行情来看，已具备良好基础：1)经济工作会议延续去年偏扩张的积极定调;2)数据有望继续验证国 内基本面改善：宏观层面，岁末年初有望是验证本轮PPI上行的重要窗口;微观层面，近期全A盈利预期仍在上修，去年四季度业绩"砸坑"后今年年报业绩 预告基本面验证压力不大;3)国内宏观流动性充裕，降准降息仍是政策可选项;微观层面，两融资金回流、险资"开门红"、居民"存款搬家"提速对于股市流 动性的支撑值得期待。 历史上的牛市躁动行情，启动时点和领涨结构有何规律? 复盘2008年以来历轮躁动行情，从启动时间和催化因素来看，大致可以分为以下三类： 11月启动(标黄)：需要强宏观政策明确转向，典型如2008年、2014年、2022年; 12月启动(标红)：年初以来市场表现偏强但临近岁末出现扰动，扰动缓解后开启躁动，典型如2017年、2019年、2020年; 本轮来看，在11月以来一系列压制市场的海外不确定性相继落地后，关注下一个可能进一步催化躁动行情的信号，包括：1)岁末年初降准降息落地的可能 性，下一个观测窗口在1月;2)关键数据对基本面预期改善的提振，包括PPI、PMI、M1 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：尧望后势 历史上的牛市躁动行情，启动时点和领涨结构有何规律？ 复盘2008年以来历轮躁动行情，从启动时间和催化因素来看，大致可以分为以下三类： 1月-2月启动（标蓝）：历史上大部分躁动行情启动的时间点。 | 表1、2008年以来历轮岁末年初躁动行情启动因素及领涨风格复盘 | | --- | | स्टेसि | 起始日 | 结束日 | 启动原因 | | 躁动行情期间 | | 年初以来 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 区间领涨风格 | | 区间领涨风格 | | | | 2008年 | 2008/11/5 | 2009/2/16 | "四万亿"改策 | 先进制造 | 科技 | 消费 | 消费 | 科技 | 金融地产 | | 2009年 | 2009/9/30 | 2010/1/19 | 国内企业盈利增长强劲、 | 科技 | 演奏 | 先进制造 | 先进制造 | 金融地产 | 滴尿 | | | | | 海外QE ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - US inflation for October and November was significantly lower than expected, with a potential rebound in December. The focus of the Federal Reserve has shifted towards addressing weak employment under a K-shaped recovery, maintaining an overall accommodative policy stance, and market expectations for interest rate cuts next year have increased [1][11] - In China, November data on consumption and investment showed weakness, indicating that domestic demand still needs stabilization. However, the recovery in export growth has supported industrial production, while retail sales were affected by the decline in government subsidies and the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [1][11] Group 2: Market Strategy - In the bond market, the funding environment remained stable, with short-term yields declining and mid to long-term yields showing volatility. The central bank is expected to implement substantial easing to lower bank funding costs ahead of potential interest rate cuts [2][12] - For A-shares, the framework indicates a bottoming of profits, but liquidity and risk appetite remain negative. The rapid decline in US CPI has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, positively impacting the offshore market [2][13] - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a phase benefiting from liquidity but facing weak fundamentals. The improvement of the price level in 2026 will be crucial for market performance [2][13] Group 3: Commodity Insights - In the oil market, global economic fundamentals indicate weak demand, continuous supply release, and inventory accumulation, leading to sustained price pressure [3][14] - For gold, the reduction of uncertainties due to easing US-China trade tensions and a shift in focus from trade to domestic policy may lead to a gradual decrease in risk premiums, potentially slowing the pace of gold price increases while maintaining a positive long-term outlook [3][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the overall market, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the medium and long - term, the idea of buying on dips is the main strategy [4]. - Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies. For example, precious metals are expected to show strong performance; some metals like copper and aluminum have certain price support but also face resistance; and some agricultural products like sugar are expected to be bearish in the long - term but with short - term uncertainties [7][11][86]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Li Qiang plans major projects; the Ministry of Commerce imposes temporary anti - subsidy measures on EU dairy products; spot gold hits $4400/oz, up nearly 68% this year; Goldman Sachs expects a bull market in Chinese stocks next year, with corporate earnings potentially growing 14% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, and the stock market may rise 38% by the end of 2027 [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the end of the year, some funds cash in on profits, and the market faces uncertainty. But in the long - run, it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts had different declines; the 12 - month LPR remained unchanged; the central bank issued 40 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong; there was a net withdrawal of 6.36 billion yuan in liquidity on Monday [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The unchanged LPR is in line with expectations. The economy has stable production but weak service and demand. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship repair and rebound [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.60%, silver rose 2.30%; COMEX gold and silver had corresponding prices; the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts changed, and the Bank of Japan's policy statement affected the market [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The release of overseas central bank policy risks boosts market sentiment. Gold and silver prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The unchanged LPR and strong precious metals prices pushed copper prices up. LME inventory decreased, and domestic inventories and premiums had corresponding changes [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's loose policy and strong precious metals support copper prices. But there is resistance due to the higher - than - expected 2026 copper concentrate processing fee and weak November consumption. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Domestic aluminum inventories increased, and prices oscillated down. LME inventory was flat, and premiums had corresponding changes [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overall inventory is relatively low, and there is support from overseas supply disruptions and the precious metals market. But there are pressures from tariff hikes and the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate and rise [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also had a price increase. There were corresponding changes in inventories, premiums, and other indicators [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease. The price is expected to be weak in the medium - term but may rise in the short - term due to macro - sentiment [14]. Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. There were changes in inventories, premiums, and other aspects [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic lead supply is tightening, and the price is expected to be strong in a wide - range in the short - term [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded sharply. Spot premiums and cost - end prices had corresponding changes [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure is still large, but the bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin main contract price declined. The smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi had different production situations, and the demand was weak [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index and futures contract price of carbonate lithium increased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is relieved, and the bullish trend is not over. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options lightly [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index declined, and there were changes in positions and premiums [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity pattern of alumina is hard to change. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price rose, and there were changes in positions and spot prices [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The reduction of Indonesia's nickel ore production target affects the market. The actual spot trading is light. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy implementation [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. There were changes in positions, trading volume, and prices [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is firm, and there are supply disruptions. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [26]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. There were changes in positions, spot prices, and inventories [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market oscillates. The terminal demand is weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The winter storage willingness is not strong [29]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose. There were changes in positions and spot prices [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, and the demand for iron water declined. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory was at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate [31]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price declined, and the inventory increased. The soda ash main contract price also declined, and the inventory increased [32][34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate narrowly. The soda ash demand is weak, and it is advisable to short - sell [33][34]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon increased. There were changes in spot prices and premiums [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market macro - sentiment is stable. The future market is affected by the black market trend, cost, and supply. Attention should be paid to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon main contract price declined. The polysilicon main contract price also declined. There were changes in positions, spot prices, and inventories [40][42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon supply may decrease, and the demand is weak. The polysilicon production is expected to decline, and the demand is weak. The prices are expected to fluctuate [41][43]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated. There are different views on the market from bulls and bears. The tire enterprise operating rates and inventories had corresponding changes [45][46][47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to operate short - term and hedge partially [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures and related refined oil futures prices increased. The European ARA refined oil inventories had different changes [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot and main futures prices of methanol had corresponding changes [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will consolidate. The port pressure remains, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and main futures prices of urea had corresponding changes [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand has improved, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. It is recommended to buy on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene increased. There were changes in premiums, inventories, and operating rates [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, costs, operating rates, and inventories [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short - sell in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract price declined. There were changes in supply, demand, inventories, and profits [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is expected to improve, but the inventory is high. Attention should be paid to the risk of price rebound [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract price increased. There were changes in operating rates, inventories, and processing fees [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply has high maintenance, and the demand will decline. It is advisable to go long on dips [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract price increased. There were changes in operating rates, inventories, and valuations [66][67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX inventory is expected to increase slightly in December. It is advisable to go long on dips [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, operating rates, and inventories [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE valuation has limited downward space. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, operating rates, and inventories [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is seasonally weak. The inventory pressure is high. The market may be supported in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog prices fluctuated. The demand after the Winter Solstice decreased but still supported the price [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand has decreased marginally, but the supply is large. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term support [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable. The supply was normal, and the market trading was tepid [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price is expected to squeeze the premium. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term pressure [77]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price increased. The domestic soybean meal price increased, and there were changes in inventories and压榨量 [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import cost has a bottom, and the soybean meal is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils - **Market Information**: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data had different changes. The domestic oil prices rebounded [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The palm oil supply is large in the short - term but may reverse in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to operate based on high - frequency data [82]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The spot prices of different regions had corresponding changes. The import and production data of different countries had different changes [83][84][85]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. It is advisable to be bearish in the long - term but wait and see in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price increased. The spot price increased, and there were changes in import, inventory, and operating rate data [87][88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand is not bad after the peak season. The price is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [89].

"随着银行持续向实体经济减费让利，银行息差缩窄压力仍然不小。此外，企业新发放贷款、个人住房 贷款加权平均利率均处于历史低位，综合融资成本下降是货币条件比较宽松的重要体现。在这种情况 下，引导LPR下降并非当务之急。"招联首席研究员董希淼表示，随着市场利率不断降低，降息的边际 效应也在下降，降息并非当前稳增长、促消费的关键因素。 ◎记者 张琼斯 贷款市场报价利率（LPR）连续7个月维持不变。12月22日，央行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布：1 年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，12月两个期限的LPR保持不变，主要是因为：近期政策利率保持稳 定，意味着LPR报价的定价基础没有发生变化；12月以来主要中长端市场利率稳中有升，银行在货币市 场的融资成本略有上升，报价行缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。 王青认为，今年6月以来LPR"按兵不动"，根本原因是受年初以来出口超预期、新质生产力领域较快发 展等支撑，今年宏观经济顶住了外部环境波动压力，增长韧性超出预期，可以实现全年"5.0%左右"的经 济增长目标，年底前逆周期调节加力的迫切性不高，货币政策保持较强定力。 关于2 ...

12月22日，今年最后一期LPR(贷款市场报价利率)出炉。中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公 布，1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。两个期限LPR均维持前值不变，截至目前LPR已经连续 7个月"原地踏步"。 "当前无论是企业新发放贷款还是个人住房贷款加权平均利率均处于历史低位。在这种情况下，引导 LPR下降并非当务之急。"董希淼说。 今年以来，LPR仅调整过一次。5月份，中国人民银行下调7天期逆回购操作利率0.1个百分点，1年期 LPR和5年期以上LPR也随之在当月下降0.1个百分点，分别报3.0%、3.5%。 王青认为，6月份以来LPR维持不变的主要原因，是受年初以来出口持续超预期、国内新质生产力领域 较快发展等支撑，今年宏观经济顶住外部环境剧烈波动压力，增长韧性凸显。由此，年底前逆周期调节 加力的迫切性不高，货币政策保持较强定力。 对于2026年货币政策，近期召开的中央经济工作会议强调，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经 济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流 动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技 ...

从更深层次看，招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼认为，当前企业新发放贷款及个人住房贷款加权平均利率均处于历史低位。综合融资 成本下降是货币条件比较宽松的重要体现。在此背景下引导LPR下行并非当务之急。 新华财经北京12月22日电（记者翟卓）22日，12月贷款市场报价利率（LPR）如期揭晓，其中1年期及5年期以上品种分别报3.0%、3.5%，均为连续第7个月 保持不变，符合市场普遍预期。 至此，2025年内1年期及5年期以上LPR均累计下行10个基点，自6月以来二者与7天期逆回购利率的加点始终维持在160个、210个基点。 从直接原因看，本月LPR继续持稳主要受两方面因素影响，即作为政策利率的7天期逆回购利率保持稳定，以及商业银行净息差仍然承压，而二者分别意味 着12月LPR的定价基础没有发生改变，以及商业银行缺乏主动压降报价加点动力。 综合来看，董希淼预计，如果2026年存款利率和政策利率进一步下降，届时LPR也有望稳中有降，并更加注重发挥结构性货币政策工具作用，引导金融资源 更多流向科技创新、绿色发展、提振消费等领域。 "而且随着市场利率不断降低，降息的边际效应也在下降，降息并非当前稳增长、促 ...