Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will intensify macroeconomic control and introduce a package of monetary policy measures, including a 50 basis points (BP) reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and a 10 BP cut in the policy interest rate [1] - The RRR cut is expected to release 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, alleviating financial institutions' funding pressures and addressing issues related to high borrowing costs [2] - The PBOC's cautious approach to monetary easing suggests that the actual impact on the real economy may be limited, as the central bank aims to use monetary policy effectively without excessive measures [2] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the bond market showed a significant response, with a 3 BP increase in the 30-year government bond yield on the day of the announcement, indicating market volatility similar to previous policy shifts [3] - The market is expected to observe the effects of liquidity and interest rate differentials, with a focus on the convergence of rates following the RRR and interest rate cuts [2][3] Investment Strategies - The current market environment suggests a preference for stable assets, with a focus on short-term bonds and leveraging opportunities, as the overall leverage level remains low at around 115% [3] - The convertible bond market is characterized by a high premium, indicating a more structured approach to investments, with limited potential for large fluctuations in overall valuations [3]

能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 feng ...

大同证券近日发布煤炭行业周报：本周，5月7日，国新办召开发布会，"一行一局一 会"介绍了一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期，包括降准降息、持续支持"两新"项目、优化 两项支持资本市场的货币政策工具等，市场在政策的刺激下，上证指数修复中美"对等关 税"以来的缺口，站上3300点。 以下为研究报告摘要： 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。（大同证券 刘永芳） 【责任编辑：杨梓安 】 焦煤价格稳中有降，焦钢库存继续下降。本周，炼焦煤供应宽松、需求疲软，下游刚需 维持高位，焦煤矿库存略有回升，下游焦煤库存处于中低位，支撑短期煤价。 权益市场以涨为主，煤炭板块跑输指数。本周，5月7日，国新办召开发布会，"一行一 局一会"介绍了一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期，包括降准降息、持续支持"两新"项目、 优化两项支持资本市场的货币政策工具等，市场在政策的刺激下，上证指数修复中美"对等 关税"以来的缺口，站上3300点。市场平均成交额1.3万亿元，单日融资买入额1000亿上下震 荡，相较上周成交热度提升，但煤炭行业跑输大盘指数。 综合上述分析，动力煤方面，在煤炭产区供应维持高位、北港库存居高不下、电煤需求 处于淡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has been significantly boosted by the better - than - expected results of the China - US trade negotiation, causing the rebar to rebound from its low level. However, the increase in inventory and the decline in apparent demand have dampened bullish sentiment. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, with short - term support from the significant tariff reduction between China and the US, but the weak expectation remains unchanged. For rebar and hot - rolled coils, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider buying at low prices after full adjustment [2]. - Currently, the profitability of steel mills is decent, and the molten iron is in a recovery trend. However, the apparent demand for steel has declined significantly, and it is expected that the molten iron production has likely peaked. If a production restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress the demand for iron ore. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The current slowdown in port inventory decline and the high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices. For iron ore, it is recommended to mainly rely on technical analysis, hold short positions lightly, and exit at low prices in a timely manner [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils 3.1.1 Market Background - The results of the China - US trade negotiation have far exceeded market expectations, boosting market confidence. The production has decreased, factory inventory has increased significantly, social inventory has continued to decline, total inventory has increased, and apparent demand has dropped sharply. Policy - side benefits have basically materialized, and the real - estate market in core cities has stabilized while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. The rumor of production restriction has limited impact on the market, but the production side believes that a production restriction policy is likely to be introduced this year [2]. 3.1.2 Technical Analysis - In the short term, there has been a significant rebound, and after a downward trend, it has entered a low - level oscillation [2]. 3.1.3 Operation Suggestion - Adopt a wait - and - see approach. After the negative factors are fully priced in and full adjustment, consider buying at low prices. Be cautious about chasing up to avoid short - term profit - taking [2]. 3.1.4 Data Overview - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract is 3079 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day and up 0.06% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3215 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day and up 0.59% from last week. Other related spot and futures prices also show different changes [2]. - **Base and Spread Data**: The rebar main base is 141 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day and 8 yuan from last week; the hot - rolled coil main base is 45 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from the previous day and up 1 yuan from last week. There are also various changes in different futures spreads [2]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: The national building materials steel mill rebar production is 223.53 tons, down 4.22% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production is 320.38 tons, up 2.79% from last week. The inventory of five major varieties of social inventory, rebar social inventory, hot - rolled coil social inventory, and five major varieties of factory inventory shows different trends of increase and decrease [2]. - **Market Transaction Data**: The 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume is 18.65 tons, down 17.68% from the previous day and up 66.31% from last week; the line - screw terminal procurement volume in Shanghai is 13200 tons, down 9.59% from last week [2]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of registered rebar warehouse receipts is 148997 tons, down 19706 tons from the previous day and 42344 tons from last week; the number of registered hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts is 281489 tons, down 9957 tons from the previous day and 42000 tons from last week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Background - The profitability of steel mills is good, and the molten iron production is in a recovery trend. However, the apparent demand for steel has declined significantly, and it is expected that the molten iron production has likely peaked. If a production restriction policy is introduced, it will suppress the demand for iron ore. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level and rising seasonally, and the current slowdown in port inventory decline and high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices [4]. 3.2.2 Technical Analysis - The futures price has broken through the recent oscillation range, the open interest has continued to increase, and the price has dropped to near the long - term trend line [4]. 3.2.3 Operation Suggestion - Judge mainly based on technical trends, hold short positions lightly, and exit at low prices in a timely manner [4]. 3.2.4 Data Overview - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 714.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.56% from the previous day and up 1.42% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 99.51 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.49% from the previous day and up 3.95% from last week. Other related spot and futures prices also show different changes [4]. - **Base and Spread Data**: The base between McFadden powder (Qingdao Port) and the DCE iron ore main contract is 30.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day and down 3 yuan from last week; the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread is 31.5 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day and 6 yuan from last week. There are also various changes in different spreads [4]. - **Shipping and Inventory Data**: The Australian iron ore shipment is 1601.8 tons, up 0.19% from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment is 548.1 tons, down 16.42% from last week. The port inventory is 14238.71 tons, down 0.45% from last week [4]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of iron ore futures warehouse receipts is 3200 lots, unchanged from the previous day and last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - According to Mysteel, some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on May 16, 2025 [6]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in early May, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 850 tons, a decrease of 35 tons (4.0%) from the previous period. The inventory decline rate has slightly narrowed, an increase of 191 tons (29.0%) from the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 305 tons (26.4%) from the same period last year [6]. - According to Mysteel, an alloy factory in Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia, has recently reduced production of two 33000KVA ferrosilicon - manganese alloy submerged arc furnaces, expected to affect the daily output by about 400 tons; a large ferrosilicon - manganese enterprise in Chongqing has shut down two submerged arc furnaces since 12:00 on May 12, 2025, and the resumption time is to be determined, affecting the daily output by 400 tons [6]. - According to Brazilian customs data, in April 2025, the total export volume of Brazilian manganese ore was 66600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 152.99% and a year - on - year increase of 23.68%. Among them, the export volume of manganese ore to China was 63800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2418.44% and a year - on - year increase of 245.28% [6].

值得注意的是，央行在一季度货币政策执行报告中指出将"继续从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行 情况，关注国债收益率的变化，视市场供求状况择机恢复操作。"今年1月，央行宣布阶段性暂停在公开 市场买入国债，维护流动性和债券市场平稳运行。 招商证券固定收益首席分析师张伟指出，历史上"双降"公布后，1年期国债收益率倾向于回落，因为"双 降"后将直接利好资金面转松，但是10年期国债收益率走势分化较大。去年9月"双降"公布后，长端利率 阶段性上行，一方面是风险偏好大幅改善，另一方面是房地产政策和财政政策加码发力。 光大证券固定收益首席分析师张旭认为，央行重启国债买卖，应该在债市供给明显加大、市场担心债券 供过于求时买入。此时市场对于央行的买入操作相对不敏感，即相同净买入规模对于利率的影响低于供 不应求时。他表示，倘若市场在较长时段里一直处于强烈的"牛市思维"，央行的国债买卖操作有可能陷 入被动。 自中国人民银行宣布新一轮降准降息后，国债收益率走势出现明显分化，截至5月13日，1年期中债国债 到期收益率较月初(5月6日)下行4.93个基点至1.4131%，10年期、30年期国债收益率分别较月初上行5.06 个基点、5.2个基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent "Q1 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report" emphasizes the dual function of monetary policy tools to support consumption expansion and address structural issues in the economy [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a comprehensive set of ten financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, including a 500 billion yuan "service consumption and elderly re-loan" at a low interest rate of 1.5% to encourage banks to increase credit support for service consumption and elderly care [1][2] - The PBOC's current monetary policy focuses on three aspects: total liquidity policies through reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts, targeted structural financial tools, and continuous improvement of market mechanisms to boost consumption [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In Q1, China's retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, an improvement of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous year, while per capita consumption expenditure rose by 5.3% year-on-year [2] - Despite the recovery in consumption, challenges remain, such as slowing growth in traditional goods consumption and structural gaps in service consumption, particularly in high-quality and personalized services [2] Group 3: Financial Innovation and Support - The PBOC is developing innovative financial tools to lower funding costs and support key consumption areas, including extending credit support for traditional goods and enhancing financial backing for service sectors like accommodation, entertainment, and elderly care [4] - The establishment of a multi-tiered consumption finance system is underway, which includes supporting auto finance and consumer finance companies to issue bonds and enhancing the transparency of financing costs for consumers [5] Group 4: Future Directions - The focus is on how financial innovation can transition consumption from "restorative growth" to "sustainable expansion," with an emphasis on managing external uncertainties and ensuring consistency in domestic macro policy coordination [6]

Group 1 - The A-share market sentiment has improved, with major indices opening higher following constructive progress in the China-US trade talks [1][11] - In April, China's exports showed resilience, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, despite a significant decline in exports to the US [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April turned positive, driven by rising food and travel prices, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) continued to decline [3] Group 2 - The Chinese government has introduced a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the capital market, stimulating domestic demand, and supporting the real estate market [6][7] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reductions to lower financing costs for enterprises [7] - The US Federal Reserve is maintaining a wait-and-see approach, with no immediate plans to change interest rates amid rising economic uncertainties [11]

Summary of Real Estate Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The real estate industry experienced its first net profit loss in 2024, primarily due to pressure on housing prices leading to record-high inventory impairment provisions, totaling 64.5 billion yuan for key real estate companies [1][3] - The average gross margin for key real estate companies has been declining since 2019, reaching 13.8% in 2024, with signs of stabilization in Q1 2025 [1][5] - The net profit margin for key real estate companies significantly declined, turning negative for the first time, dropping by 7.3 percentage points to -6.2% in 2024 [1][5] Financial Performance - In 2024, the total assets of 36 key real estate companies decreased by 912.5 billion yuan, with liabilities also reducing by over 700 billion yuan, continuing the deleveraging trend since 2021 [2] - The net profit loss for the industry reached 100 billion yuan, with equity decreasing by over 70 billion yuan, a 2.7-fold decline year-on-year [2] - Cash flow pressures are evident, with cash on hand decreasing by 11% year-on-year, and the net debt ratio rising by 11.4 percentage points [6] Sales and Market Dynamics - National sales of commercial housing fell by 17% year-on-year, with the top 100 real estate companies experiencing a 31% decline in sales [1][6] - The inventory turnover rate remained high in 2024 due to accelerated land acquisition, sales, completion, and delivery processes, alongside a significant slowdown in land purchases [7] - Q1 2025 showed some positive signs, with expectations for positive month-on-month growth in May, supported by recent interest rate cuts [1][8] Future Outlook - The anticipated decline in interest rates, with LPR possibly dropping to around 3% and housing fund loan rates to 2.1-2.2%, is expected to stabilize demand and transaction levels in the real estate market [15][16] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a slight increase in settlement gross margin from 16.8% to 16.9%, indicating potential recovery in profitability for some companies [11] - The market is expected to see structural opportunities, particularly for companies that have increased leverage in Q1 2025, which may reflect positively in their financial reports later in the year [12][16] Risks and Considerations - Concerns regarding the impact of trade wars on real estate demand recovery appear to be overstated, with long-term effects expected to be limited [10] - Policy changes, such as the introduction of current housing sales or property taxes, require careful consideration to avoid market volatility [17] - The potential for existing housing sales to affect market sentiment is noted, with the importance of prior notification to developers emphasized to mitigate negative impacts [14]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-5-13 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：4月官方PMI为 49%，较3月下降1.5个百分点，财新PMI录得 50.4%，较3月下降0.8 个百分点，均为近几个月新低。宏观方面，4月28日央行表态"适时降准降息"，市场对流动性 宽松预期升温，5月12日，中方宣布此前中美会谈取得重要共识，发布联合声明，暂停或取消4月 以来的关税。供需端，农膜淡季，停车厂家增多，整体需求下滑，受关税影响制品出口需求减弱。 当前LL交割品现货价7200（-20），基本面整体中性 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差224，升贴水比例3.2%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存63.6万吨（+16.9），偏空； • 4. 盘面： ...

Group 1 - Private equity funds in the A-share market have performed well despite ongoing market fluctuations, with an average return of 2.52% as of April 30, 2023, and 69.82% of products achieving positive returns [1] - Multi-asset strategy products have led the market with an average return of 2.87%, surpassing the overall market average, and 70.84% of these products reported positive returns [1] - Stock strategy products also showed strong performance, with an average return of 2.56% and 67.89% of products achieving positive returns, driven by a recovery in the A-share market in April [1] Group 2 - Bond strategy products lagged behind with an average return of 1.87%, but 83.44% of these products still achieved positive returns [2] - Combination funds reported an average return of 2.10%, with 81.02% of products achieving positive returns [2] - Market analysts suggest that ongoing macroeconomic events, such as the US-China tariff negotiations, will continue to create investment opportunities, emphasizing the importance of sector-specific research and stock selection [2] Group 3 - The recent monetary policy easing, including interest rate cuts, is viewed as a short-term positive factor for the market, but long-term effects will depend on the actual economic performance [3] - Historical trends indicate that the impact of monetary policy changes on the market can vary, with initial reactions often leading to volatility before potential reversals occur [3]