结构性降息后，降准降息空间仍存 国债周报 2025/01/17 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 程靖茹（联系人） chengjr@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133937 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 流动性 02 期现市场 05 利率及汇率 03 主要经济数据 01 | 国债基本面评估 | 估值 驱动 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差 经济 | 价格 | 政策 | 流动性 | 贴水 | | 多空评分 | -1 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | | 简评 | 基本面改善仍需观 净基差偏低 察 | 价格适中 | 政策空档期 | 流动性压力有望缓 解 | 贴水偏低 | | | 近期经济数据显示内需仍有待修复，外需在关税扰动下有所承压。当前债市向下调整空间有限，往后看资金面有望延续宽 | | | | | | 小结 | 松，随着关税扰动及外需的不确定性增强，后续经济稳增长压力仍存。宽货币政策的方 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the banking industry [5] Core Insights - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates, with the one-year re-lending rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.25% [7] - The reduction in re-lending rates is not considered a direct interest rate cut but is expected to lower banks' interest expenses by approximately 13 billion yuan annually, contributing to a 0.3 basis point improvement in bank margins [7] - The report anticipates that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is unlikely to be adjusted this month, as historical trends show LPR adjustments typically align with Open Market Operation (OMO) policy rate changes [7] - Looking ahead to 2026, the report suggests that if the actual GDP growth target is revised downwards, the first quarter's economic growth is not expected to fall below the target [7] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Analysis - The report discusses the implications of the recent reduction in re-lending rates, indicating it serves as a signal for monetary policy at the start of the year and encourages banks to increase credit issuance [7] - The structural monetary policy tools currently account for approximately 13% of the base currency, amounting to about 5.2 trillion yuan [7] Economic Outlook - The report highlights that the monetary policy will focus on cross-cycle adjustments, maintaining a neutral stance while allowing for responsive measures based on economic performance [7] - The next potential window for further reductions in reserve requirements or interest rates is projected to be around the second or third quarter of 2026, contingent on economic conditions [7]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In December 2025, new social financing (社融) amounted to 22,075 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 6,462 billion RMB, but higher than the market expectation of 18,200 billion RMB[2] - New RMB loans totaled 9,100 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 800 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations by 2,306 billion RMB[2] - The overall social financing growth rate fell to 8.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from November's 8.5%[3] Group 2: Credit and Loan Trends - Corporate loans increased by 5,800 billion RMB year-on-year, with short-term loans up by 3,900 billion RMB and medium to long-term loans up by 2,900 billion RMB[4] - In contrast, household short-term loans decreased by 1,611 billion RMB and medium to long-term loans decreased by 2,900 billion RMB, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending[4] - The total amount of corporate medium to long-term loans in December was 3,300 billion RMB, close to levels seen in 2021 but lower than the 10,000 billion RMB levels of 2022-2023[4] Group 3: Deposit and Monetary Trends - M1 growth rate fell to 3.8%, down 1.1 percentage points, while M2 growth rate rose to 8.5%[5] - Non-bank deposits saw a significant increase of 28,400 billion RMB, while household deposits increased by 3,900 billion RMB[6] - The increase in non-bank deposits was influenced by a low base effect from the previous year and a rise in wealth management products, which grew by 21,000 billion RMB in December[6] Group 4: Market Implications and Strategies - The trend of "deposit migration" is accelerating, with indicators showing increased household deposit activity and a shift towards wealth management and insurance products[7] - The stock market showed signs of recovery in January 2026, with increased retail investor participation and a high level of margin financing[7] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with potential for structural monetary policy adjustments and a focus on credit growth in the first quarter[9]

昨日盘后央行有动作，但今日股市高开低走，A50此前反应平淡。当前降息在4000点位置，安抚意义大 于实际，今年宏观资金面宽松，降准降息高潮未到，待美联储5月中旬换主席或还有调整空间。今日仍 在杀高位股，不少股票走势刺激。开年情绪冲击大，很多人曾想追热点。有人迷恋战法，买高位股已吃 多连阴。近期大盘类似2024年10月8号，上涨爆量、下跌缩量。预计此次回调幅度不深，调整时间比上 次短两天，下周中或现"回头波"。这是一次小级别风险教育，提醒投资者股市非提款机。 和讯自选股写手 风险提示：以上内容仅作为作者或者嘉宾的观点，不代表和讯的任何立场，不构成与和讯相关的任何投 资建议。在作出任何投资决定前，投资者应根据自身情况考虑投资产品相关的风险因素，并于需要时咨 询专业投资顾问意见。和讯竭力但不能证实上述内容的真实性、准确性和原创性，对此和讯不做任何保 证和承诺。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 股票名称 板块名称 降准降息、高位股、量能变化 看多看空 内容中既提到今年宏观资金面宽松，降准降息高潮还未来，暗示市场有积极因素；又指 出当前市场高开低走、杀高位股、量能大幅缩量等情况，说明市场存 ...

Core Viewpoints - The widening gap between M2 and M1 growth rates is primarily due to the "misalignment" in government debt financing and the increasing stability of residents' capital market allocations [1][52] - In December 2025, the M2 growth rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.5%, while the new M1 growth rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 3.8% [42][51] - The government bond net financing in December 2025 decreased by 10,733 billion yuan, which is a significant factor dragging down social financing [23][52] Government Debt and Financing - The misalignment in government debt financing at the end of the year is the primary factor affecting social financing, with a notable decrease in government bonds issued [2][23] - The issuance of local government refinancing bonds concentrated at the end of 2024 and the front-loading of fiscal efforts in 2025 contributed to this misalignment [23][52] - In January 2026, 24 provinces and cities planned to issue 2,577.8 billion yuan in new debt, which is an increase of 1,356.8 billion yuan compared to January 2025 [2][23] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The central bank introduced two new policies: a 25 basis point reduction in the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools and enhancements to these tools to increase support for private, technological, and green sectors [26][28] - Following the interest rate cut on January 15, 2026, the one-year re-lending rate decreased from 1.5% to 1.25% [26][28] - The new structural monetary policy tools are expected to guide banks in credit allocation and stabilize net interest margins, creating room for future interest rate cuts [28][54] Credit and Loan Trends - In December 2025, new credit totaled 9,100 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 800 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in household loans [29][55] - Household loans decreased by 4,416 billion yuan year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, influenced by low employment prospects and fluctuations in real estate prices [15][29] - Corporate medium and long-term loans saw a rebound for the first time in 31 months, with an increase of 3,300 billion yuan in December 2025, attributed to the impact of new policy financial tools [18][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's reduction of various structural monetary policy tool interest rates by 25bp reflects support for the "five major articles of finance", helps stabilize the net interest margin of banks, and indicates a continued loose monetary policy, but does not directly lead to an immediate decline in interest rates or a follow - up reduction in LPR [5][13][14] - There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts (130bp) and interest rate cuts in 2026, but the probability of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low before the Two Sessions and the first release of 2026 economic data [5][14] - The central bank will increase liquidity injection, and the overnight interest rate is expected to be slightly lower than 1.40%, which does not mean a tightening of liquidity [20] - In 2026, the central bank's treasury bond trading will mainly cooperate with fiscal policies, and it is more concerned about risks of large - scale unilateral changes in interest rates [22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Structural Monetary Policy Interest Rate Cuts - On January 15, 2026, the central bank announced a series of monetary and financial policies, including a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in various structural monetary policy tool interest rates. After the cut, the 1Y agricultural and small - business re - loan and other special tool interest rates are 1.25%, lower than the 7DOMO policy rate [5][8][13] - The reduction in interest rates can reduce banks' interest - paying costs and help stabilize the net interest margin. It is estimated that by the end of December 2025, the balance of the central bank's structural monetary policy tools will be around 5.4 trillion yuan, and the interest savings after the rate cut will be about 13.5 billion yuan. Even if all tools are fully utilized, the interest savings will only slightly exceed 20 billion yuan [5][13] - The interest rate cut does not directly lead to a decline in interest rates, and it does not meet the conditions for an LPR follow - up reduction [5][13] 3.2 Future Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cut Space - The central bank stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in 2026 [14] - The current average statutory deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 6.3%, and it is expected that 5% is the bottom line, leaving a 130bp cut space [14] - The main constraint for interest rate cuts is the pressure on banks' net interest margins. Although there are factors conducive to stabilizing the net interest margin, the probability of a comprehensive interest rate cut before the Two Sessions and the first release of 2026 economic data is low [14] 3.3 Follow - up Capital Market Conditions - The central bank will continue to increase liquidity injection, keep liquidity abundant, and guide the overnight interest rate to run around the policy rate [20] - The overnight interest rate in December 2025 was generally below 1.30%. Due to the dislocation of repurchase operations, the overnight interest rate rose to 1.30% - 1.40%. It is estimated that an overnight interest rate slightly lower than 1.40% is appropriate, which does not mean a tightening of liquidity [20] 3.4 Follow - up Treasury Bond Trading - In 2025, the net investment of repurchase operations was 3.8 trillion yuan, mainly achieved through treasury bond trading [22] - Two perspectives can be used to observe the central bank's treasury bond holdings. In 2025, the balance of the central bank's claims on the central government decreased by 67 billion yuan, while the balance of other institutions' treasury bond holdings increased by 37 billion yuan, and the balance of local government bond holdings of other institutions increased by 290 billion yuan [22] - In 2026, the central bank's treasury bond trading will mainly cooperate with fiscal policies, help ensure the smooth issuance of treasury bonds at a reasonable cost, and play a role in preventing market risks. The adjustment of the 10 - year treasury bond yield range may not represent a clear regulatory target [22] 3.5 Other New Monetary and Financial Policies - Merge and use the agricultural and small - business re - loan and rediscount quotas, increase the agricultural and small - business re - loan quota by 500 billion yuan, and set up a private enterprise re - loan quota of 1 trillion yuan [8] - Increase the science and technology innovation and technological transformation re - loan quota by 400 billion yuan and expand the scope of support [8] - Merge and manage the private enterprise bond financing support tool and the science and technology innovation bond risk - sharing tool, with a total re - loan quota of 200 billion yuan [8] - Reduce the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% to support the de - stocking of the commercial real estate market [9]

Policy Overview - The central bank's structural monetary policy focuses on "interest rate cuts and expansion" targeting agriculture, small enterprises, private businesses, and technological innovation, without implementing total "reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts or interest rate reductions" for now[4] - The recent policy shift indicates a transition from "leading the market curve" to "synchronizing with the market," reflecting a more precise and coordinated monetary approach[4] Monetary Policy Details - The central bank lowered the re-lending and re-discount rates by 25 basis points (BP), with the one-year re-lending rate now at 1.25%[4] - An additional 500 billion yuan in re-lending for agriculture and small enterprises has been allocated, with a 1 trillion yuan re-lending specifically for private enterprises[4] - The re-lending quota for technological innovation and transformation has been increased by 400 billion yuan, and a combined risk-sharing tool for technological innovation and private enterprise bonds has been established with a total re-lending quota of 200 billion yuan[4] Economic Context - Since the implementation of previous policies, domestic inflation has shown a mild recovery, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) declining by 1.9%[5] - Exports achieved a year-on-year growth of 5.5% in 2025 despite external challenges, indicating sustained competitiveness[5] - The Hang Seng Index led global markets, while the Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,100 points on January 15, 2026, highlighting improved market confidence[5] Future Outlook - The central bank emphasizes that the space for RRR cuts is greater than for interest rate reductions, with an increased focus on government bond operations to manage liquidity[6] - The absence of specific policies for the real estate market suggests that future support will likely rely more on fiscal measures rather than monetary policy, such as interest subsidies and reduced transaction costs[7] - Overall, the structural monetary policy reflects a balance between stabilizing growth, mitigating risks, and promoting transformation amid ongoing economic challenges[7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of Shanghai aluminum may experience short - term high - level fluctuations and adjustments [53]. - The price of aluminum alloy may follow the price of electrolytic aluminum and undergo high - level shock adjustments [51]. - The alumina market is expected to continue to have an oversupply situation [21]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Report Summary - The report analyzes the aluminum industry from multiple aspects, including macroeconomic data, supply and demand of raw materials, production and sales of products, and inventory changes. It also provides a forecast for the future price trend of aluminum [53][51]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to be accumulated, but the production operation can be maintained, and the end - user side hopes to maintain resilience [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: The US dollar index is high, and the sentiment of the non - ferrous metal market has turned weak with macro data showing a rebound [7]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Macroeconomic Data**: In the US in December 2025, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. The CPI rose by 2.7% year - on - year. In China in December 2025, the CPI rose by 0.8% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year with the decline narrowing [9][14]. - **Raw Material Supply**: From January to November 2025, China's bauxite cumulative production reached 55.2135 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. In November, imports reached 15.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.3%. In 2025, the new domestic alumina production capacity was 9.8 million tons, and it is expected to reach 8.6 million tons in 2026 [16][19][22]. - **Production and Sales of Products**: In December 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.9% year - on - year and 4.0% month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio dropped by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month. The domestic downstream aluminum processing enterprises' average opening rate increased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 60.2%. In December 2025, the domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 640,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41,800 tons [27][29][43]. - **Inventory Situation**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly to 490,000 tons. The SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 10.79% to 143,828 tons in the week of January 9. As of January 15, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 749,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons compared to Monday. As of January 16, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 69,300 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons compared to last week, and the in - plant inventory was 60,200 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared to last week [36][39][48]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The price of Shanghai aluminum may experience short - term high - level fluctuations and adjustments. The price of aluminum alloy may follow the price of electrolytic aluminum and undergo high - level shock adjustments [53][51].

中新社北京1月16日电 (陶思阅)根据当前经济金融形势需要，中国央行打开政策"工具箱"，宣布推出八 项结构性货币政策措施，并透露今年降准降息"还有一定空间"。后续政策怎么走，受到市场高度关注。 此番结构性货币政策措施包括：下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，单设额度1万亿元(人 民币，下同)的民营企业再贷款，下调商业用房购房贷款最低首付比例至30%等。这套"组合拳"旨在提 高银行重点领域信贷投放的积极性，进一步助力经济结构转型优化。 面对市场的流动性需求，中国央行并未直接调整公开市场操作利率，而是下调各类结构性货币政策工具 利率。分析认为，这种结构性"降息"虽非全面降息，但其信号意义不容忽视。 "结构性货币政策工具利率下调，将直接降低银行从中国央行获取再贷款资金的成本，激励银行以更低 的利率向科技创新、绿色转型等重点领域发放贷款，降低实体经济综合融资成本。"招联首席研究员董 希淼说。 中信证券研究团队认为，考虑到当前的金融市场环境，中国央行以结构性"降息"和对全面降息的积极表 态，兼顾了稳定市场预期和避免推升金融泡沫的目标。 本轮结构性"降息"计划于1月19日落地。市场将继续关注，全面降准降息还有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum price may experience high - level volatility and adjustment in the short term, and the aluminum alloy price will follow the electrolytic aluminum price and may also undergo high - level volatility and adjustment [5][72][75]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Report Summary - US employment data supports the rebound of the US dollar index, increasing pressure on non - ferrous metals. The domestic "structural interest rate cut" and moderately loose policies help support the fundamentals, but market sentiment has weakened due to the high - level volatility of precious metals [5]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased slightly, and the production volume has also increased. The downstream processing sector has shown differentiated performance among leading enterprises, with the overall operating rate increasing slightly due to pre - holiday inventory preparation. The aluminum ingot social inventory has continued to accumulate, but the inventory level is not high, and the pressure on aluminum prices is limited [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating production capacity has changed little, the social inventory has continued to accumulate but the inventory level is not high, and the processing end operating rate is expected to remain resilient [8]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - The rebound of the US dollar index has increased pressure on non - ferrous metals, and the macro sentiment has weakened [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Aluminum Ore Supply - **Domestic Supply**: The domestic bauxite supply is tight. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 4.21% year - on - year, but the November output decreased by 5.26% year - on - year. The performance in different regions was significantly different. The northern region faced a phased supply shortage [20]. - **Overseas Supply**: Overseas bauxite supply may be relatively loose. In November, the import volume increased by 9.8% month - on - month and 22.3% year - on - year, with a significant increase in imports from Guinea [23]. 3.3.2 Alumina Market - The alumina market is expected to continue to have an oversupply situation. In 2025, the new domestic production capacity was 9800000 tons, and it is expected to reach 8600000 tons in 2026. If all new production capacity is released as expected, the oversupply will exceed 10000000 tons [27]. 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Production - In December 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.9% year - on - year and 4.0% month - on - month. The aluminum water ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month to 76.5%. It is expected that the operating production capacity will increase slightly at the beginning of next year, and the aluminum water ratio may continue to decline [32]. 3.3.4 Aluminum Processing - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 60.2% due to pre - holiday inventory preparation, but high aluminum prices restricted downstream consumption and the recovery of the operating rate [35]. 3.3.5 Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly to 490000 tons, while the SHFE aluminum inventory increased significantly by 10.79% to 143828 tons in the week of January 9 [45]. - **Social Inventory**: As of January 15, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 749000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons from Monday. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, but the pressure on aluminum prices is limited [49]. 3.3.6 Price and Premium - On January 19, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumaobao aluminum was - 140 yuan/ton, with an expanded discount, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium changed from a discount to a premium of 1.42 US dollars/ton [53]. 3.3.7 Recycled Aluminum - In December, the domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 640400 tons, a decrease of 41800 tons month - on - month. Small and medium - sized enterprises faced raw material procurement difficulties, and the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry is expected to decline slightly in January [56]. 3.3.8 Aluminum Alloy Import and Export - In November 2025, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy decreased by 28.2% year - on - year and 4.2% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 51.5% year - on - year and decreased by 1.0% month - on - month. The import volume is expected to remain low in December [63]. 3.3.9 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - As of January 16, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 69300 tons, an increase of 1100 tons from last week, and the in - plant inventory was 60200 tons, a decrease of 4300 tons from last week [68]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The aluminum alloy price will follow the electrolytic aluminum price, and both may experience high - level volatility and adjustment [72][75].