Report Summary - **Report Title**: Baoju Securities Weekly Report - **Report Date**: December 22, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report Core View - Global economic slowdown and inflation trends affect various asset markets, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange. Market participants are closely watching central bank policies, economic data, and geopolitical events to assess investment opportunities and risks. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Stock Market - **European Stocks**: Economic slowdown and inflation concerns lead to fluctuations in European major stock indices. The European Central Bank maintains interest rates, and the market awaits PMI data to judge the possibility of a mild recovery in early 2026 [3][4]. - **Chinese Stocks**: Weak domestic demand and real - estate market issues pressure the Chinese market. Beijing may introduce new stimulus measures. Investors are looking for blue - chip stocks with clear profit prospects for portfolio layout [3][4]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index rebounds after being affected by the US inflation data. Market liquidity may improve with the expansion of regulations and IPO activities, but returns depend on foreign capital inflows and the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3][4]. - **US Stocks**: The decline in the November CPI data boosts expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. The market focuses on year - end spending and profit expectations, and the AI sector's technical changes increase market volatility [3]. Global Bond Market - **Government Bonds**: The FTSE World Government Bond Index falls 0.04%. Although the decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, the hawkish stances of the Fed and the Bank of England limit gains. Prices remain range - bound due to year - end liquidity tightening and policy uncertainty [5]. - **High - Yield Bonds**: The Bloomberg Global High - Yield Bond Index rises 0.29%. Spreads narrow and economic optimism boost risk appetite. However, emerging - market debt faces challenges due to the strong US dollar, despite China's stimulus measures. High - yield bonds will remain popular in 2026, and emerging - market performance depends on exchange - rate stability and fiscal progress [5]. Commodities - **WTI Crude**: WTI crude oil falls 1.36% to $56.66 per barrel. The progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and global economic growth concerns lead to a second - consecutive - week decline. In 2026, expected production surpluses and stable OPEC+ output may put pressure on oil prices, and the market focuses on year - end inventory data [8]. - **Gold**: Gold prices rise 0.91% to $4338.88 per ounce. The decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, and year - end hedging operations drive up gold prices. Interest - rate cuts and central - bank demand support gold prices moving towards $4400, but the Fed's hawkish remarks may trigger profit - taking [9]. - **Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index**: The index falls 0.16% to 580.08. Weak energy prices offset the rise of gold and soft commodities. The market is weighing 2026 growth expectations, and commodities will remain range - bound. Upcoming PMI data are crucial for assessing metal and energy demand [10]. Foreign Exchange - **US Dollar Index**: The US dollar index rises 0.20% to 98.60. Weak CPI data boost expectations of 2026 interest - rate cuts, but the Fed's hawkish remarks provide support. The index is expected to fluctuate around the current level, with technical support at 98.00 [11]. - **RMB against the US Dollar**: The RMB falls 0.20% to 7.0411. Weak domestic demand and the real - estate market pressure the RMB, but the optimistic 2026 fiscal expansion outlook limits the decline. The RMB's trend depends on the pace of fiscal stimulus and the overall strength of the US dollar [12]. Main Indices and Economic Data - **Main Indices**: The report provides price and cumulative return data of major global stock indices such as the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, the Shanghai Composite Index, the US Dow Jones Index, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [16]. - **Economic Data**: It includes data on non - farm payrolls, unemployment rates, PMI, CPI, and other economic indicators in the US and Europe, with comparisons between previous values, market expectations, and actual values [17]. Bond/Foreign Exchange Index - **Bond Index**: It shows the price, change percentage, and yield of various government bonds such as US, Chinese, Japanese, German, and British bonds as of December 19, 2025 [18]. - **Foreign Exchange Index**: It provides price and cumulative return data of major currency pairs including the Hong Kong dollar, the US dollar, the euro, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [18].

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar continues to strengthen against the US dollar, influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy and market expectations regarding interest rates and inflation [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged, with the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50% [1]. - Traders are focusing on the upcoming RBA meeting minutes to gauge the central bank's policy direction and stance on inflation [2]. - As of December 18, the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures for February 2026 indicate a 27% probability of the RBA raising rates to 3.85% [3]. Group 2: US Economic Indicators - The US dollar has ended a three-day rally, with the dollar index (DXY) trading around 98.60, as market participants await the release of the US Q3 GDP annualized data [4]. - Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester stated that current monetary policy is appropriate for pausing rate hikes to assess the impact of previous rate cuts [4]. - The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, below the expected 3.1%, marking the lowest growth rate since 2021 [4]. Group 3: Leadership Changes in the Federal Reserve - The next Federal Reserve Chair is expected to be someone who supports significant rate cuts, with Christopher Waller being a potential candidate who has reiterated a dovish stance on interest rates [5]. Group 4: Australian Inflation Data - Australian consumer inflation expectations have risen from 4.5% in November to 4.7% in December, supporting a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia [6]. Group 5: Australian Dollar Technical Analysis - The Australian dollar is currently trading around 0.6620, maintaining an overall upward trend, with key resistance levels at 0.6685 and 0.6707 [8]. - The 14-day RSI is at 57.05, indicating a neutral to bullish sentiment, while the 9-day EMA shows an upward trend but may exert short-term pressure on prices [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining support for Trump due to rising living costs and economic dissatisfaction among American households, mirroring the previous discontent that led to Biden's downfall [1][9]. Group 1: Support Decline - A recent poll shows Trump's approval of economic policies dropped from 70% to 53%, a decline of 17 percentage points, highlighting growing public dissatisfaction [3]. - Rising prices of essential goods, such as beef increasing by nearly 30%, contribute to the frustration of American families [3]. - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised employment data downwards, indicating a weakening job market, which exacerbates the financial strain on households [5]. Group 2: Economic Mismanagement - Trump's initial economic reputation as a savior has deteriorated as inflation continues to rise, affecting household budgets significantly [7][9]. - The implementation of tariffs intended to protect domestic industries led to a 40% increase in imported steel prices, resulting in layoffs and increased consumer costs [12]. - The disconnect between economic policies and the realities faced by citizens is a primary reason for Trump's declining support [7][25]. Group 3: Political Consequences - Internal White House memos indicate that the administration is aware of the potential electoral consequences if living cost issues are not addressed [15][25]. - Trump's attempts to downplay the cost of living issues have backfired, leading to public backlash and further erosion of trust [18]. - The article emphasizes that the fundamental economic problems, such as job quality and inflation, remain unresolved, affecting both Biden and Trump administrations [26][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on stock indices (IH, IF, IC, IM), treasury bonds (TS), rubber, rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, and corn; bearish on crude oil, methanol, apples, and container shipping to Europe [6] 2. Core Views - A - shares are expected to form a long - term and slow - rising bull market pattern with the resonance of "policy support, capital escort, and industrial drive". The expected December interest rate cut by the Fed and capital market reforms will further strengthen this foundation [2][12] - The downward trend of CPI provides room for interest rate cuts, and weak employment data supports the Fed to continue cutting rates, boosting precious metal prices. The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged [3][20] - The short - term trend of aluminum prices is expected to continue consolidation, while a long - term optimistic outlook is maintained, considering supply and demand factors and the approaching holidays [4][23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Main News on the Day 3.1.1. International News - The EU Commission proposed to relax the 2035 "ban on the sale of fuel - powered vehicles" requirements, seen as a concession to the traditional European automotive industry and a step back in climate policy [7] 3.1.2. Domestic News - State - owned enterprises will take on national science and technology tasks, aiming to make breakthroughs in "neck - choking" areas and supply "root technologies" and key common technologies [8] 3.1.3. Industry News - Three government departments jointly issued the "Internet Platform Price Behavior Rules" to promote the innovation and healthy development of the platform economy [9] 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.88%, ICE Brent crude oil increased 1.41%, London silver climbed 2.26%, and other varieties showed different degrees of price changes from December 18th to 19th [11] 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial - **Stock Indices**: The long - term and slow - rising bull market pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's expected December interest rate cut and positive policy signals will boost market risk appetite [2][12] - **Treasury Bonds**: The price of short - term treasury bond futures is supported by the expectation of loose policies, despite factors such as the rise in US and Japanese bond yields [13][14] 3.3.2. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The overall downward trend of crude oil is hard to reverse, with a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventory and an increase in gasoline and distillate inventories [15] - **Methanol**: Short - term methanol is expected to be weak and volatile, affected by factors such as the decline in CTO/MTO开工率 and the change in coastal inventory [16] - **Rubber**: Short - term rubber prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation due to supply and demand factors [17] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures are running weakly. Short - term attention should be paid to the cost trend and the digestion rhythm of supply and demand [18] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The focus of market trading is shifting to the May contract [19] 3.3.3. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, supported by factors such as the Fed's possible interest rate cuts and the weakening of the US dollar's credit [3][20] - **Copper**: The copper market is facing a supply - demand gap due to supply disruptions. Attention should be paid to factors such as the US dollar and downstream demand [21] - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate is temporarily tight, and the overall supply - demand difference is not obvious. Market sentiment and related factors need to be monitored [22] - **Aluminum**: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to consolidate, and a long - term optimistic view is maintained, considering supply, demand, and holiday factors [4][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although there are signs of a slowdown in inventory reduction, the overall trend is still upward, and attention should be paid to factors such as production resumption and demand verification [24][25] 3.3.4. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a significant decline, the double - coking market is expected to stabilize, and attention should be paid to factors such as iron - water production and downstream inventory [26] - **Steel**: The short - term steel price has the potential to rebound, but the medium - term trend is weak, affected by supply, demand, and macro - expectations [27] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term iron ore prices are expected to be slightly stronger and volatile, considering factors such as shipping, inventory, and steel - mill demand [28] 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meals**: Domestic soybean meal is expected to continue range - bound due to factors such as the slow US soybean exports and sufficient future supply [29] - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term oil prices are expected to be weak and volatile, affected by factors such as palm oil export policies and inventory pressure [30][31] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar shows signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the impact of supply and cost factors on market sentiment [32] - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are supported by factors such as fast sales progress, possible reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [33] 3.3.6. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The freight rate of the 02 contract may face adjustment pressure as the Spring Festival approaches and the shipping schedule changes [34]

·美联储内部分歧加剧 ·英国央行降息25个基点至3.75% 波士顿联储主席柯林斯表示，通胀前景的变化使她倾向于支持美联储上周的降息决定。 ·泰国央行干预汇市降息预期升温 【全球央行动态】 ·美联储官员讲话一览： 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯强调，基于最新就业与通胀数据，当前并无再次降息的紧迫需求，进一步巩固市 场对美联储短期内暂停降息的预期。 理事哈马克表示，未来数月无需调整利率，倾向在春季前保持政策稳定。她认为中性利率可能高于市场 普遍预期，并强调当前更需关注顽固通胀，而非劳动力市场潜在疲软。 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，美国劳动力市场正逐步降温，但尚无迹象显示经济将出现明显放缓。 他强调，若美联储长期未能实现2%的通胀目标，可能"确实会损害"其政策公信力。并警告，进一步降 息或将使货币政策进入宽松区间，进而推高通胀或抬升通胀预期，带来新的风险。 ·欧洲央行维持三大关键利率不变 ·日本央行加息至30年高点释放紧缩信号 ·墨西哥央行降息25个基点至7% ·美联储主席热门候选人、白宫国家经济委员会主任哈西特明确表态支持央行独立性，并强调他与前总 统特朗普的密切关系不应成为其担任美联储主席的障碍。 ·英国央行将基准利率 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Mexico announced a 25 basis point reduction in the benchmark interest rate to 7%, marking the lowest level since mid-2022 and completing the last monetary policy adjustment for 2025 [1][2] - This is the eighth rate cut of the year, with the rate now at its lowest since April 2022, following four previous cuts of 50 basis points each [2] - Despite the rate cut, the central bank raised its short-term inflation expectations, with the overall inflation rate rising to 3.8% in November from 3.57% in October, and core inflation increasing from 4.28% to 4.43% [2] Group 2 - The central bank's statement indicates a shift in policy stance from a dovish to a more cautious approach, as it will now "assess the timing of further adjustments" rather than simply considering continued rate cuts [3] - Analysts expect the central bank to maintain interest rates in the first quarter of 2026, with a potential "prudent policy pause" to evaluate the impacts of tax adjustments and minimum wage increases on inflation [3][4] Group 3 - The Mexican peso has become a standout currency in the foreign exchange market, benefiting from high interest rate differentials and robust macroeconomic fundamentals, despite the global trend of rate cuts [5][6] - The peso's strength is attributed to a structural weakening of the dollar and market anticipation of the central bank's decisions, with the dollar-peso exchange rate declining [5][6] - The peso's status as a "star currency" provides a buffer against imported inflation but also constrains monetary easing, necessitating careful policy decisions by the central bank [6]

Key Points Summary Group 1: Major Asset Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 3.0 basis points to 4.16% as of December 19, 2025, while the 2-year yield fell by 4.0 basis points to 3.48% [3] - The S&P 500 index slightly increased by 0.10% to 6834.50, while the Nasdaq index rose by 0.48% to 23307.62 [3] - The Brent crude oil spot price decreased by 2.05% to $61.27, indicating a downward trend in commodity prices [3] Group 2: Central Bank Performance - The Federal Reserve's last three rate cuts in 2025, totaling 75 basis points, were seen as proactive and necessary due to weakening employment data and reduced inflation pressures [4][10] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained a balanced approach, with inflation in the Eurozone stabilizing around 2.0-2.2%, while the Bank of England has room for further rate cuts due to inflation still being below target [14] - The Bank of Japan raised rates twice in 2025 but remains cautious, with expectations for 1-2 additional rate hikes in the coming year [15] Group 3: Economic Data Insights - U.S. non-farm payrolls showed mixed results, with November adding 64,000 jobs, while October was revised down to a loss of 105,000 jobs [20] - The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.56% in November, reflecting temporary layoffs and an increase in labor force participation [22] - Inflation pressures eased, with the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by only 2.7%, significantly below expectations of 3.1% [25] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Trading Patterns - Recent data releases have led to increased expectations of recession, with trading patterns shifting towards recession trades [16] - The overall market sentiment reflects a cautious approach, with a notable increase in uncertainty and a mix of tightening and easing trades observed in recent weeks [16][17]

摩根大通《2026年市场展望报告》指出，人工智能正从技术热潮迈向经济现实，成为推动全球生产率提升与GDP增长的核心引擎。自2022年ChatGPT发布以 来，AI投资迅猛扩张，美国六大科技巨头资本支出占比已接近全美总量的25%，预计到2026年年度投资将突破5,000亿美元。AI相关支出对美国GDP的贡献 甚至已超过消费者支出。尽管模型性能近期略有平台期迹象，但智能体AI的发展有望在2026年春季逼近人类水平，预示下一轮突破即将到来。 报告深入剖析了AI对劳动力市场的双重影响：虽然约7,100万高薪知识型岗位面临重塑，但历史经验表明，技术革命往往催生新职业、扩大整体需求。当前 数据显示，AI采纳企业的劳动生产率平均提升30%，且高风险行业失业率反而更低。关键在于，AI短期内更多体现为"增强"而非"替代"，人类在常识判断、 情商与重大决策等方面仍具不可替代优势。然而，企业需重构数据与基础设施，这一过程将是渐进而非突变。 能源已成为制约AI发展的最大瓶颈。美国70%区域电网已超负荷，新增电力容量平均需五年审批建设周期，而至2030年电力需求预计将激增662太瓦时—— 超过德州与加州年发电总和。与此同时，南美洲凭借 ...

Group 1 - Silver TD is currently trading above 15,944, with an opening price of 15,390 and a current price of 16,190, reflecting an increase of 6.39% [1] - The highest price reached today is 16,198, while the lowest was 15,314, indicating a bullish short-term trend for Silver TD [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve's Harker stated that there is no need for any interest rate adjustments in the coming months after three consecutive rate cuts [2] - Harker expressed concerns about persistent inflation rather than potential weaknesses in the labor market, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [2] - The November CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, but adjusted estimates suggest it may be closer to 2.9% or 3.0%, highlighting potential data collection issues [2]

美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特周五在接受福克斯商业频道采访时表示，美国总统特朗普说通胀处于低位是正确的，尽管数 据、公众舆论和多数经济学家都不认同这一观点。 哈塞特表示，以年同比为基础评估通胀的普遍做法是错误的，最好是看三个月移动平均线的价格压力。这意味着物价 压力并没有大大超出美联储2%的目标，实际上是低于目标的。 今日周一(12月22日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于68.50一线上方，今日开盘于67.32美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白 银暂报68.96美元/盎司，上涨2.72%，最高触及68.99美元/盎司，最低下探67.26美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短 线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 国际白银多头下一个上行目标位为收盘价突破关键技术阻力位70.00美元；空头下一个下行目标位则是推动收盘价跌破 关键支撑位60.00美元。阻力位为历史高点67.18美元；初步支撑位关注隔夜低点64.465美元，进一步支撑位为低点 63.725美元。 哈塞特解释说，从三个月的平均价格压力来看，目前的通胀率约为1.6%。美国核心通胀"处于或低于目标水平"，这使 得美联储"有充足空间"降息。 另外美联储理事米兰重申应继续降息，以抵消 ...