StateStreet投资管理公司策略师也表示，尽管金价在2025年可能创下自1979年以来最佳年度表现，但预 计2026年涨势将有所放缓，大概率在每盎司4000至4500美元区间盘整。支撑今年金价的结构性趋势仍将 持续，若股债相关性保持高位，黄金作为分散风险工具的重要性将进一步凸显。同时在全球债务攀升、 通胀顽固及长期收益率上行环境下，黄金仍是具吸引力的对冲资产，而美联储宽松政策带来的美元走弱 与流动性增加，亦将为金价提供支撑。 全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓较上日减少1.14吨，当前持仓量为1049.11吨。 分析师指出，尽管金价短期小跌，但美联储鹰派降息预期、地缘政治紧张、货币波动和债券市场反应， 都在为黄金铺设长期上行路径。短线而言，投资者还需留意国际贸易局势的相关消息。 周二(12月9日)亚洲时段，现货黄金维持弱势，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4186.62美元/盎司，下跌 0.06%，最高触及4198.62美元/盎司，最低下探4184.15美元/盎司。市场担心美联储在降息的同时可能释 放鹰派信号影响，黄金小幅回落，目前依然维持在区间震荡之中，交易员普遍预计本周将迎来25个基点 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, and glass are rated as "weak" or "weak and volatile"; rebar is in a "volatile state". [2] - **Financial Sector**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, 2 - year and 5 - year treasury bonds are rated as "volatile"; the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "rebounding"; the 10 - year treasury bond is rated as "downward". [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are rated as "strong and volatile"; logs are rated as "bottoming out and volatile". [4] - **Light Industry**: Pulp, double - offset paper, and logs are rated as "volatile"; paper pulp is rated as "volatile and returning". [7] - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as "range - bound"; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.1, and soybean No.2 are rated as "weak and volatile". [7][8] - **Agricultural Products**: Pigs are rated as "weak". [8] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as "weak and volatile". [10] - **Polyester**: PX is rated as "widely volatile"; PTA is rated as "volatile"; MEG is rated as "weakly volatile"; PR and PF are rated as "wait - and - see". [10] 2. Core Viewpoints - The main line of the iron ore market in 2026 is "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory build - up". With new global mine production increasing and real - time demand weak, prices are expected to be weak and volatile. For coal coke, there are pressures on supply and expectations of price cuts, but there is support at the bottom. The steel market is in a bottom - volatile state, and the key to price stabilization lies in production cuts and anti - "involution" policies. [2] - The central government's economic work plan for 2026 emphasizes a series of policies, and the market's bullish sentiment is rising. The high - tech industry is growing, but the 10 - year treasury bond yield shows a downward trend. [3] - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, the US debt problem, geopolitical risks, and Chinese physical gold demand support its price. The short - term impact comes from the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment. [4] - Logs' demand improvement needs further observation, and the pulp market's supply and demand are in a re - balancing process. The price trends of various paper products are mainly volatile. [7] - The demand outlook for oils and fats is uncertain, with supply remaining abundant. The price of soybean meal and related products is expected to be weak and volatile, affected by factors such as US soybean supply and South American weather. [7][8] - The pig market has a stable supply, but terminal demand growth is limited, and prices are expected to decline. [8] - The supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, the price is expected to be weak and volatile. The polyester market has different trends for different products, mainly affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand. [10] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current iron - making water production is decreasing, plate inventory is high, and steel mill maintenance is expected to increase. Although macro - sentiment may warm up, real improvement depends on the peak season next year. After the stock - replenishment and sentiment boost, there are opportunities to short on rebounds. [2] - **Coal Coke**: Some coke enterprises have turned profitable, but steel mills are still in the red. November's Mongolian coal imports may reach a new high, and there is supply pressure. The first round of coke price cuts in December has landed, and there are still expectations for further cuts. However, there is support at the bottom due to downstream stock - replenishment demand and coal production reduction expectations. [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: Steel demand is weak, and the winter stock - replenishment has not started. The key to steel price stabilization is whether the production cut in the fourth quarter of 2025 can exceed 5% and the implementation of anti - "involution" policies. Currently, prices are in a bottom - volatile state. [2] - **Glass**: The price in the Shahe area has weakened again, and demand is insufficient. Some glass factories have postponed cold - repair plans. Although inventory has decreased, it is still higher than the same period last year. The key to price stabilization lies in cold - repair progress and macro - factors. [2][3] Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The central government emphasizes a series of economic policies for 2026. The market's bullish sentiment is rising, and the high - tech industry is growing. The performance of different stock indexes varies, and some sectors show capital inflows or outflows. [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond is flat, and the market shows a small - amplitude rebound. The central bank conducts reverse - repurchase operations, and the net investment is positive. [3] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, with central bank gold purchases being the key. Factors such as the US debt problem, high - interest - rate environment, geopolitical risks, and Chinese physical gold demand support its price. The Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term influencing factors. The market has a high expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. [4] - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume at ports has increased, but the demand improvement needs further observation. The import volume from New Zealand has decreased, and the expected arrival volume has increased. The port inventory has decreased, and the spot market price is stable. [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price shows a differentiated trend, with the cost support for pulp price increasing. However, the papermaking industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak, so the pulp price is expected to return to a volatile state. [7] - **Double - Offset Paper**: The spot market price is stable, the supply side changes little, and the mid - month publication orders help with sales. However, weak social demand restricts price increases, and the price is expected to remain volatile. [7] Oils and Fats - **Oils**: The demand for US soybean crushing is strong, but the biodiesel policy is uncertain, and exports are weak. The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in October exceeded expectations, and exports in November decreased. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and demand from the catering industry is weak. With cost support, the price is expected to be range - bound. [7] - **Meals**: The US soybean supply is structurally tight, but the global supply is relatively loose. Brazilian soybeans have an advantage in export price. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and demand from the breeding industry is cautious. The price is expected to be weak and volatile. [7][8] Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The average trading weight shows a north - rising and south - falling trend. The terminal demand growth is limited, and the settlement price may decline further. The slaughtering rate has increased, but the profit of self - breeding and self - raising has decreased, and that of piglet fattening has increased. The overall price is expected to decline. [8] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply in domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas is affected by weather, and the demand support is insufficient. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile. [10] Polyester - **PX**: With the resumption of oil production in Iraq, oil prices have declined. The PX supply is high, but downstream demand has increased, and the PXN spread is temporarily stable. The price is widely volatile. [10] - **PTA**: The cost side is unstable due to oil price fluctuations. Although short - term supply and demand have improved, the industry will weaken seasonally, and the price is expected to follow the cost side. [10] - **MEG**: There is still long - term inventory build - up pressure, and the short - term supply has decreased. The price is weakly volatile, and the spot basis is weakening. [10] - **PR and PF**: The polyester bottle - chip market is expected to be weak due to low oil prices and weak terminal demand. The short - fiber market price may be weakly sorted due to low prices, weak demand, and weakening cost support. [10]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美联储降息预期打压美元指数并推高贵金属的流动性溢价，与此同时市场继 续关注新任美联储主席提名人选对美联储货币政策倾向的潜在影响，短期内金价 易涨难跌，关注本周三美联储议息会议对 2026 年货币政策的指引；全球经济增长 前景改善，使得工业属性较强的银铂钯在广期所上市铂钯品种的情况下持续偏强 运行，但上周银铂钯价格初现松动迹象，建议投资者留意银铂钯价格短期飙升后 调整风险的释放。中短期内多空因素交织，我们判断伦敦黄金需要在 3880-4380 美 ...

2025年12月8日，国际金价站上4196美元/盎司，国内金价逼近千元关口。 这种剧烈波动反映了市场对多重因素的重新定价过程。 推动金价上涨的核心动力首先来自全球央行的持续性购金行为。 这场"黄金狂飙"背后，是年内超50%的涨幅、20多次历史新高的纪录，以及全球央行持续购金、美联储降息预期与地缘风险交织的复杂图景。 然而高位金价已让普通消费者望而却步——金饰需求同比下降19%，回收金供应却增加6%。 当前市场正陷入多空拉锯战：多头坚信降息周期与"去美元化"趋势将推高金价，空方则警告美国经济韧性可能逆转宽松预期。 面对震荡行情，投资者需清醒认识到：黄金的定价逻辑已发生根本性变革，央行购金取代实际利率成为新锚点，而这一变化将深刻影响未来走势。 2025年12月8日的黄金市场数据显示，伦敦现货黄金报价4196.03美元/盎司，较前一日下跌12.57美元，跌幅0.30%。 国内市场方面，上海黄金交易所主力合约AU99.99报953.0元/克，投资金条价格在966-976元/克区间波动。 品牌金店首饰金价格呈现明显分化：周大福、老凤祥等高端品牌价格达到1328元/克，而菜百首饰等性价比品牌价格为1292元/克。 黄金回 ...

新华财经北京12月8日电上周（12月1日至5日当周），国际金价高位盘整。当周金价开盘于每盎司 4223.10美元，最高4264.56美元，最低4163.46美元，收盘报4198.23美元，全周波幅101.10美元，周度下 跌24.87美元，跌幅0.59%。 当周金价K线呈现小阴十字星形态，显示黄金市场仍处于高位震荡阶段，趋势性突破动能不足，投资者 静待本周美联储货币政策会议提供清晰指引。 基本面缺少指引 从上周影响黄金市场的基本面来看，一方面，俄乌局势仍存在缓和的预期，另一方面，美联储官员进入 缄默期，市场暂时难从官员讲话中寻觅有关降息前景的信息。这使得黄金市场整体表现平静，没有明显 的方向性趋势。 具体来看，近期地缘政治局势整体呈现缓和预期与局部冲突风险并存的局面。美国透露与俄罗斯进行 了"建设性讨论"，市场对俄乌冲突缓和的预期升温，削弱了黄金的部分避险吸引力。然而，前线交火并 未停止，和平前景仍存变数，这种情况的存在，限制了金价的下跌空间。此外，委内瑞拉局势、阿富汗 与巴基斯坦边境冲突等地缘风险事件将继续维持全球地缘政治局势的不确定性底色。 货币政策方面，美联储进入议息会议前的"缄默期"，官员停止公开发表 ...

| E T 1 | 2 P | | --- | --- | | N | | | 1 | 1 90 1 | | D | | | 1 . | | | 2 | | 【沥青】 近期河北鑫海、温州中油、山东胜星等停产或转产渣油，克石化及辽河石化提产，整体供应微增。周度出货量 不足40万吨，环比减少3.4%，位于近四年同期低位水平。社会库环比小幅下滑，同比来看，自10月下旬出现由 减转增的拐点后同比增幅逐步扩大;炼厂库存环比小增，整体商业库存去化节奏明显放缓。BU走势承压。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月08日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 中国1-11月原油进口量同比增加3.2%。近期俄乌和平谈判维持僵局,关于基辅的安全保障及俄罗斯实控领土问 题 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with geopolitical factors being the main driver in December. There is a short - term bullish outlook, but trading is difficult due to geopolitical uncertainties. A mid - term shorting opportunity is expected after a pulse - like upward movement [2][3]. - Among chemical products, PX and PTA can maintain a bullish view for now, while the bullish view on methanol is removed. Other products such as styrene, rubber, synthetic rubber, etc., each have their own supply - demand and technical characteristics, with corresponding trading suggestions [1][6][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Logic**: Supply - demand and macro - factors have a weak impact on the market. The mid - term expectation of supply surplus remains, but there is short - term trading of supply - demand changes. Geopolitical factors are increasing, and there is a pessimistic view on the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. There may be a pulse - like upward movement due to the risk escalation in the Caribbean [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: Short - term supply has decreased due to increased maintenance, and two consecutive weeks of inventory reduction have improved short - term supply - demand. However, mid - term inventory pressure is high, and there may be a risk of inventory overstocking [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait for an opportunity to try long after a pull - back without breaking the support [6]. Rubber - **Logic**: There are no major short - term contradictions. Tire demand has limited growth, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season. There is no clear upward or downward driving force, so it is treated with a volatile view [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The core of synthetic rubber lies in the supply - demand of raw material butadiene. Short - term supply - demand has improved, but there is still mid - term inventory pressure [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [14]. PX - **Logic**: The upward driving force has weakened, but the supply - demand situation is still relatively strong in the chemical industry, and attention should be paid to the cost - end impact of crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to hold long positions on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 6700 [17]. PTA - **Logic**: The upward driving force has weakened, but short - term supply - demand pressure is not significant. Attention should be paid to cost - end driving [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to hold long positions on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 4620 (01 contract) [20]. PP - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level and demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is still weak. Attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [22]. Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and demand is weak. Although the port inventory has decreased, the rate of decrease has slowed down, and there is high - level inventory pressure. The previous upward driving force has ended, and the short - term bullish view is removed [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward and short - term volatile structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [23]. PVC - **Logic**: Future maintenance plans are limited, and production is at a high level. There are expectations of production reduction due to profit decline, but demand is weak, and inventory is high. There is no upward driving force, and short - selling has limited value [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Domestic production is at a high level, and new production capacity has increased supply pressure. Demand from downstream polyester is stable, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. Attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term and short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [29]. Plastic - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level and demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is still weak. Attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term and short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [30]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, and the demand from downstream glass has decreased. Although the downward driving force remains, the cost - effectiveness of holding short positions has decreased [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: A downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - profit reference of 1155 [33]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. Inventory has reached a new high, and the downward driving force remains, but there is limited space for short - selling [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: A downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [36].

投资咨询系列报告 更新时间：2025年12月08日16时14分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨0.15%，沪银主力收涨2.06%，铂金主力收涨0.66%，钯金主力收涨涨1.07%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，普京会见特朗普 特使和库什纳，讨论结束乌克兰战争的可能途径。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联 储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可能性。美联储褐皮书显示，美国经济活动变化不大，但政府停摆令多地 需求受抑。美国9月消费者支出温和增长，通胀创近一年半最快增速。美国上周初请失业金人数意外减少2.7万人至19.1万人，为 2022年9月以来的最低水平。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率暴涨至 80%以上。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。需求端氢能产业 被列为战略新兴产业，对铂基催化剂的需求形成长期强劲预期。钯金长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。⑤预 ...

美联储降息预期强烈，政策分歧引市场博弈：市场对美联储12月9-10日议息会议降息的预期是当下核心 影响因素。芝商所FedWatch工具显示本次降息25个基点的概率达87%，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯释放鸽派 信号，旧金山联储主席戴利更是明确支持12月降息。不过分歧依旧存在，3位有投票权的地区联储主席 坚持通胀偏高论调。市场除关注本次降息动作外，更聚焦2026年利率路径点阵图，其释放的信号将大概 率决定年末黄金行情基调。 美元指数在上周五探底回升，但整体维持在近期区间内，收报99.00，下跌0.05%，上周累计下跌 0.47%，为连续两周下滑。美国国债市场在上周五表现强劲，价格下跌推动收益率升至数周高位，10年 期国债收益率上涨3.1个基点至4.139%，上周累计上涨12.2个基点，创下4月初以来最大单周涨幅；30年 期国债收益率上涨3个基点至4.794%，上周涨幅达12.4个基点，为八个月来最大；两年期国债收益率上 涨3.4个基点至3.565%，上周涨幅7.3个基点，创10月下旬以来新高。这反映了投资者对美联储鹰派降息 的谨慎预期。 来源：市场资讯 12月8日，周一，亚市早盘时段，现货黄金微涨十美金后又小幅度回落， ...

12月08日：黄金市场上周：国际现货黄金震荡收跌，相对于前周振幅明显收窄，多头动力减弱，但目前 仍运行在5-10周均线上方，布林带保持向上发展，基本面也未有持续且较大的利空因素，故此，前景 上，仍具有看涨新高预期。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于4221.37美元/盎司，先行录得当周高点4264.57美元，之后遇阻回撤，于周 二录得当周低点4163.81美元，据此开始连续不断冲高回落和触底回升走盘，延续至周五触及周高点附 近后，再度回撤走低，最终收于4194.36美元，周振幅100.76美元，收跌27.01美元，跌幅0.64%。 周线级别，金价在近几周震荡调整，低点不断上移的同时，持续受到10周均线支撑，而在前周强势反弹 走强拉升，多头占据优势，布林带向上延伸，看涨前景良好，虽然上周多头动力虽有减弱，但未跌至5- 10周均线下方，故此在此之上，仍可继续看涨入场，等待再度上探历史高点附近或更高位置。 影响上，虽然周内受到12月降息预期的提振，以及部分数据的疲软支撑，而展现看涨预期，但在技术阻 力压制之下，以及在等待众多数据公布指引政策前景之前的等待和观望，而不断调整波动； 虽然周五美国9月核心PCE物价指数年率显示 ...