日本经济财政谘问会议民间成员永滨利广：高市早苗政府的经济政策将把重点放在利用财政政策提振经济供应面，货币政策则扮演辅助角色。前日本央行副行长、政府政策小组委员若田部昌澄：日本必须通过财政政策、增长策略提高中性利率。鉴于中性利率水准，央行应该避免过早加息、过度调整货币政策援助。 ...

摘要今日周三（12月17日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4330美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报 4332.18美元/盎司，涨幅0.69%，最高上探至4334.23美元/盎司，最低触及4300.39美元/盎司。目前来 看，伦敦金短线偏向看涨走势。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 伦敦金日线此前连续收阳，整体保持偏强的多头格局，且价格维持在短周期均线上方，5、10日均线呈 多头排列并向上发散，体现出中期上行态势的稳固性。不过日线级别KDJ指标有死叉迹象，MACD红色 柱体也出现萎缩，这意味着短期上涨动能有所收敛，存在技术性回调的需求，难以持续单边冲高。 伦敦金价格处于高位震荡修复状态，暂时被压缩在特定区间内波动，昨日欧盘回落至4271一线后迅速反 弹，验证了该级别均线支撑的有效性。同时K线整体沿着短周期均线维持上行走势，显示多头在高位仍 有较强承接力，但价格在4350一带明显承压，暂时难以实现有效突破。 今日周三（12月17日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4330美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报4332.18 美元/盎司，涨幅0.69%，最高上探至4334.23美元/盎司，最低触及4300.39美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金 ...

Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.27 with a 0.05bp increase, DR007 at 1.45 with a 0.48bp increase, GC001 at 1.69 with a 19.00bp increase, and GC007 at 1.57 with a 2.00bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with a 0.40bp increase, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change [3] - 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.34 with no change, 5 - year at 1.63 with a - 0.10bp change, 10 - year at 1.78 with a - 6.30bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.17 with a - 2.20bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 1353 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 1173 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net daily injection was 180 billion yuan [3] - This week, 6685 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. On Monday, 4000 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases and 800 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature [4] - The Central Economic Work Conference stated to continue a moderately loose monetary policy, using various tools like RRR cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain liquidity and support key areas [4] Group 2: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 closed at 4498, down 1.20%; the SSE 50 at 2955, down 1.08%; the CSI 500 at 7001, down 1.58%; and the CSI 1000 at 7182, down 1.74% [5] - IF当月 closed at 4499, down 1.0%; IH当月 at 2951, down 1.1%; IC当月 at 7010, down 1.5%; and IM当月 at 7189, down 1.6% [5] - IF trading volume was 150080, up 24.5%, and its open interest was 290251, up 5.8%; IH trading volume was 70206, up 18.5%, and its open interest was 96049, down 0.3%; IC trading volume was 163311, up 23.3%, and its open interest was 269228, up 5.6%; IM trading volume was 254225, up 32.1%, and its open interest was 402582, up 9.9% [5] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 17242 billion yuan, a decrease of 493 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with the commercial department store sector rising [5] Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Suggestions - The market's risk appetite is declining as the year - end approaches. With poor November economic data and limited policy signals, the stock index is expected to remain weak in the short term [6] - The market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the stock index to rise next year, providing an opportunity for investors to gradually build long positions and use the futures' discount structure to optimize investment [6] Group 4: Stock Index Futures Premium/Discount - IF's premium/discount rates for the current, next, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are - 4.99%, 4.60%, 3.98%, and 3.95% respectively [7] - IH's are 13.95%, 3.66%, 1.44%, and 1.74% respectively [7] - IC's are - 15.43%, 7.05%, 8.76%, and 10.04% respectively [7] - IM's are - 12.50%, 10.53%, 11.97%, and 12.78% respectively [7]

【资讯导读】 ·特朗普起诉BBC索赔百亿美元指控纪录片诽谤 ·美拟对欧企加征报复性措施科技税争端升级 ·非农数据喜忧参半：就业略超预期失业率升至三年高点 ·欧元区制造业持续萎缩德法表现分化明显 ·泰国央行干预汇市降息预期升温 【市场资讯】 ·美国总统特朗普正式对英国广播公司（BBC）提起诉讼，指控其《全景》纪录片构成诽谤，并违反佛 罗里达州贸易行为法，两项指控各索赔50亿美元，总索赔额高达100亿美元。 ·为反击欧盟对美科技企业征税，特朗普政府威胁对包括埃森哲、西门子和Spotify在内的欧洲知名企业 实施新限制或收费。 ·亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克表示，美国劳动力市场正逐步降温，但尚无迹象显示经济将出现明 显放缓。他强调，若美联储长期未能实现2%的通胀目标，可能"确实会损害"其政策公信力。并警告， 进一步降息或将使货币政策进入宽松区间，进而推高通胀或抬升通胀预期，带来新的风险。 ·欧盟委员会提议将2035年新车"零排放"目标调整为"减排90%"，实质上为插电混动、增程式及轻度混合 动力等内燃机车型保留合法销售路径，缓和汽车产业转型压力。 ·面对泰铢持续升值对出口与旅游业造成的压力，泰国央行已要求银行加 ...

Group 1 - Kevin Hassett, a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, emphasizes the importance of the Fed's independence and insists that any interest rate decisions should be based on consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) grounded in facts and data [1] - Hassett addresses concerns regarding potential political influence on monetary policy, stating that he would only consider President Trump's suggestions for rate cuts if they are supported by sufficient economic rationale and his own agreement before presenting them to the FOMC for collective review [1] - The current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, and the Trump administration is in the final stages of selecting a successor, with Hassett being a core candidate who reiterates the Fed's focus on its dual mandate of price stability and full employment [1] Group 2 - Hassett praises another main competitor, Kevin Warsh, highlighting his extensive experience and suggesting that the President has good options among the candidates [2] - Market predictions regarding the final candidate have fluctuated, with Kalshi platform data indicating that as of mid-December, Warsh has a nomination probability of approximately 46%, while Hassett's probability is around 39%, indicating a narrowing lead for Hassett [2] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stated that the final decision on the Fed Chair is expected to be announced in early January 2026 [2]

新华财经悉尼12月17日电（记者李晓渝）西太平洋银行和墨尔本研究院17日发布的报告指出，2025年11 月澳大利亚西太平洋银行／墨尔本研究院经济活动领先指数（Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity）的6个月年化增长率从10月的0.32%下滑至0.16%。 西太平洋银行经济学家瑞安·威尔斯表示，11月指数增长率回落主要反映出当月股市抛售现象以及消费 者预期的降温。尽管该指数仍处于正值区间，但整体表现较为低迷，显示经济动能出现一定停滞。西太 平洋银行预测，澳同比经济增速将从目前约2.1%的水平小幅回升，至2026年升至约2.4%，而2.4%的水 平大致符合趋势水平。 他说，过去6个月，指数增长率略有上升，从5月的0.09%提高了0.07个百分点。此前该指数的一些疲软 表现与当时的高度不确定性因素有关，这种不确定性主要源于特朗普提出的所谓"对等关税"，而这一因 素目前已有所缓解。 资料显示，西太平洋银行／墨尔本研究院经济活动领先指数是将涉及当地金融、住房和劳动力市场，消 费者对经济活动与失业情况的预期，以及国际经济活动等多个领域的 ...

2025年，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上，宏观经济环境交织着机遇与挑战。 这一年，中国金融市场在内外变局中走出独特节奏，核心领域表现亮点与韧性并存。货币政策延续"适度宽松"基调，保持"灵活高效"；人民币汇 率逆势走强，全年在多重因素支撑下稳步回升，双向波动的弹性特征愈发明显；黄金成为全球资产配置的"避风港"，国际金价屡创新高，中国人 民银行连续增持黄金…… 2025年的经济表现与政策选择，更为2026年启幕的"十五五"埋下关键伏笔：货币政策如何在"以我为主"与外部周期趋同中预留发力空间？稳汇率 面临哪些挑战？支撑黄金长期走势的核心是什么？"双循环"战略又该如何适配全球贸易格局重构？ 这些贯穿短期调控与长期布局的核心命题，既是2025年衔接期必须破解的现实难题，也是理解"十五五"经济脉络的关键切口。围绕上述问题，中 银证券全球首席经济学家管涛近日接受了北京商报记者专访。 管涛认为，2026年我国货币政策仍将坚持"以我为主"，在需兼顾总量调节与结构性工具优化创新的同时，各项政策工具将持续发力，资本市场有 望迎来政策支持。防范汇率超调将是2026年宏观调控重点之一，人民币汇率延续双向波动态势 ...

美联储在12月的政策会议上进行了年内第三次利率下调，幅度为25个基点。根据公开信息，美联储官员对2026年是否进一步调整利率存在不同看法。市场参 与者正关注即将公布的经济数据以及美联储官员的讲话，以获取更多政策线索。 在周三的亚洲交易时段，黄金价格（XAU/USD）延续近期涨势，接近七周以来高点，价格站上每盎司4300美元上方。 美国劳动力市场数据呈现喜忧参半的信号，为贵金属市场提供了支撑。 数据显示，美国劳动力市场保持相对韧性，但已显露疲软迹象，强化了市场对美联储可能进一步调整利率的预期，并对美元走势形成一定压力。 市场基本面分析 美国11月就业数据显示，非农就业人口增加64万人，高于市场预期；失业率微升至4.6%，平均时薪环比上升0.1%。同时，10月零售销售数据持平，低于市 场预期。这些数据共同影响了市场对未来货币政策的预期。 从技术分析角度看，黄金价格短期保持上行态势。四小时图显示，价格持续位于100日指数移动均线上方，布林带呈现扩张状态，相对强弱指标（RSI）位 于中线以上，显示短期买盘动能较为明显。 若价格持续位于当前区间上沿4305美元上方，可能再次试探前期高点4350美元附近区域。反之，若出现 ...

摘要今日周三(12月17日)亚盘时段，国际黄金在4320美元附近运行，截至发稿最新报4320.31美元/盎 司，日内上涨0.42%。盘中最高触及4321.82美元/盎司，最低下探至4300.39美元/盎司，波幅约21美元。 短线技术面与资金情绪偏暖，金价在回踩4300关口后企稳回升，延续震荡上行节奏，短期有望继续测试 上方阻力位。 今日周三(12月17日)亚盘时段，国际黄金在4320美元附近运行，截至发稿最新报4320.31美元/盎司，日 内上涨0.42%。盘中最高触及4321.82美元/盎司，最低下探至4300.39美元/盎司，波幅约21美元。短线技 术面与资金情绪偏暖，金价在回踩4300关口后企稳回升，延续震荡上行节奏，短期有望继续测试上方阻 力位。 【要闻速递】 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 昨晚非农数据利空，失业金数据却利多，黄金价格最终冲高回落，依然徘徊在大区间震荡的范围内。非 农数据未能助力黄金突破震荡格局，那么市场焦点可能将转向周四晚间的CPI数据。预计今日黄金大概 率继续维持震荡走势，投资者可在日内区间内采取高抛低吸的策略。 美国财政部长贝森特对经济前景表达了乐观态度，预测2025年美国GDP增速 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro to USD exchange rate is stabilizing around 1.1746, with market sentiment cautious ahead of key events, particularly the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy meeting on December 18, where it is widely expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2% [1] Group 1: ECB Policy Outlook - Market expectations have shifted, with over 60% of economists predicting the ECB will raise interest rates next, contrasting with previous expectations of easing, driven by inflation trends approaching the 2% target [2] - ECB President Lagarde indicated that current monetary policy is at an "appropriate level" and there is no need for rate adjustments, while also hinting at potential upward revisions to economic growth forecasts [1][2] Group 2: Economic Data Analysis - Eurozone economic data shows a mixed picture, with December business activity growth slowing for the second consecutive month; manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.2, indicating contraction, while services PMI remained in expansion at 52.6 [2] - In the US, November non-farm payrolls showed mixed results with job additions of 64,000 exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in recent years, indicating a slowdown in economic recovery [2] Group 3: Currency Dynamics - The recent "hawkish rate cut" signal from the Federal Reserve after its third rate cut of the year has created a policy divergence that supports the Euro against the USD [2] - The nominal strength of the Euro has raised concerns, as its real strength is at historical highs, potentially impacting Eurozone export competitiveness and posing challenges to ECB policy [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The Euro to USD exchange rate maintains a positive short-term structure, trading above the 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages, with a core trading range identified between 1.1730 and 1.1790 [3] - Key resistance levels are noted between 1.1790 and 1.1800, with a potential target of 1.1840 if this resistance is breached; upcoming ECB decisions and US economic data will be critical for determining future price movements [3]