若按六氟磷酸锂在7月18日的年内低点4.98万元/吨测算，截至10月31日， 六氟磷酸锂价格已在不到4个月内上涨超120%， 涨幅在锂电池四大主要材料中"一枝独 秀"。 对于六氟磷酸锂价格的持续上涨，即使是业内人士也觉得"大超预期"。上述业内人士表示，六氟磷酸锂历经两年多的价格下跌后，行业整体已处于亏损状态，此 前的低价不可持续，低效产能陆续出清，但"没想到价格大幅反弹"。 "目前价格走势比预期更好一点。" 天际股份在2025年三季度业绩说明会中表示，之前公司预期11月小厂产量提升，价格会下降，目前看来可能性不大，11月—12 月还是往上。多氟多在2025年三季报业绩交流会中也表示，公司判断10月六氟磷酸锂市场需求持续向好，预计年底增速有所放缓，明年价格呈上行趋势。 对于六氟磷酸锂价格上涨的原因，多氟多分析， 主要由下游新能源与储能产业需求爆发、供给端产能集中且扩产谨慎的供需矛盾及原材料价格波动共同推动。短 期内，市场供应紧平衡状态可能持续至2026年，价格仍有上行空间。 中信建投研究电新团队10月26日发文称， 上调明年国内储能装机增速至倍增，锂电新周期序幕拉开。储能招标景气度上行，社会资本投资积极，经济性 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 11 02 年 月 日 基础化工 储能全球共振，锂电材料迎景气周期 全球共振，储能需求高增。储能是一种将电能转换为机械能、热能等不同 形式的能量存储，并在需要用电能时重新转换成电能并释放的路径。受益 于中国市价上网改革以及容量电价补贴、美国 OBBBA 法案抢装、欧洲/中 东大储装机发力拉动，根据 InfoLink，2025 H1 全球储能系统出货同比增 长 85.7%。从电芯角度看，2025 年上半年，大储电芯满产满销，头部厂 商产能利用率突破 80%，部分电芯厂直逼 90%。 英伟达定调，AIDC 配储需求 2030 年展望 200GWh。2025 年 10 月 13-16 日举行的 OCP 全球峰会上，英伟达发布了 800 V 直流架构白皮 书，指出"储能必须被视为电源架构中必不可少的、活跃的组件，而不仅 仅是备用系统"，明确了下一代配电方案和 AIDC 配储的必要性。储能不 仅可以有效解决 AI 计算负载功率 10X 以上波动问题，还能作为补充，整 合风光绿电供应，同时应对断电风险。根据弗若斯特沙利文，预计 2030 年全球数据中心储能需 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electricity sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [6]. Core Insights - The China Electricity Council forecasts a 5% growth in electricity consumption for the year, with total installed capacity of wind and solar expected to exceed 1.8 billion kilowatts by 2025. In the first three quarters of 2025, total electricity consumption reached 7.77 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with significant contributions from the secondary industry and high-tech equipment manufacturing [1][9]. - The report highlights a decline in holdings of both active and index funds in the electricity and public utilities sector, with active funds holding 0.65% and index funds holding 1.74% of their portfolios by the end of Q3 2025, both showing a decrease compared to previous quarters [1][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report indicates that the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.72 billion kilowatts by the end of September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.5%. It is projected that the total installed capacity will reach approximately 3.9 billion kilowatts by the end of 2025, representing a 16.5% increase [1][9]. Fund Holdings - Active funds have seen a reduction in their holdings in the electricity sector, with the top five increased holdings being Jiufeng Energy (+0.53%), Jiantou Energy (+0.41%), and others, while the top five decreased holdings include CGN New Energy (-2.74%) and Datang New Energy (-1.61%) [1][9]. - Index funds also reflect a similar trend, with Shanghai Electric (+0.44%) and Shenneng Co. (+0.19%) being the top increased holdings, while Changjiang Electric (-0.58%) and Zheneng Electric (-0.16%) saw the largest decreases [2][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the thermal power sector, which is expected to see continued performance improvements, and highlights the importance of energy storage policies and the value of flexible power sources. Recommended stocks include Huaneng International, Huadian International, and others in the thermal power sector [2][6]. - Additionally, the report advises on investing in undervalued green electricity stocks, particularly in Hong Kong and wind power operators, with specific recommendations for Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [2][6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge of the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points is attributed to multiple positive factors, including macroeconomic policy support, improving economic fundamentals, and a more favorable external environment, indicating a "slow bull" market phase with numerous investment opportunities [2][4][5]. Market Analysis - The index's breakthrough is driven by sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, including monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, alongside a gradual recovery in investor confidence, particularly in technology and innovation sectors [4][5]. - The performance of the technology sector reflects the rise of new economic momentum, while traditional sectors like consumption and real estate are experiencing a lack of investor interest [2][4][10]. Investment Opportunities - Private equity firms emphasize the importance of identifying high-quality stocks with core competitiveness and improving industry conditions, particularly in technology sub-sectors such as AI, robotics, and energy storage, as well as high-end manufacturing and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][5][14]. - The market is expected to continue to present opportunities, especially in sectors that are likely to benefit from policy catalysts and performance realization [14][15]. Performance of Private Equity - Private equity firms have reported strong performance, with average returns of 27% for subjective long positions and 43% for quantitative strategies, indicating a favorable market environment [7][8]. - However, there is a notable divergence in performance among subjective long strategies, primarily due to rapid market shifts and concentration in a few hot sectors [8][10]. Sector Differentiation - The differentiation between "old economy" stocks (like consumption and real estate) and "new economy" stocks (like technology) is significant, with the latter showing higher valuations driven by industry trends rather than mere valuation metrics [10][11]. - The current low valuations of traditional blue-chip stocks are attributed to fundamental pressures and low expectations, suggesting potential for recovery as economic conditions improve [11][12]. Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to undergo a structural upward trend, with a focus on sectors that demonstrate clear growth potential and resilience against economic fluctuations [5][6][14]. - As the market approaches year-end, there may be opportunities for style rotation and sector shifts, particularly in response to seasonal factors and upcoming economic policy discussions [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 66.402 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.95%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 11.881 billion yuan, up 56.34% year-on-year [1]. - The company's energy storage business is experiencing significant growth due to high overseas demand, with a shipment target of 40-50 GWh for 2025, a substantial increase from 28 GWh in 2024. The global energy storage market is expected to maintain a growth rate of 40-50% in 2026 [2]. - The establishment of the AIDC division aims to create a second growth curve for the company, focusing on products such as primary and secondary power sources, with plans for collaboration with leading cloud and internet companies [2]. - The operating cash flow has significantly improved, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 9.914 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by increased collections and improved accounts receivable management [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 92.749 billion yuan, 109.555 billion yuan, and 132.500 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 19.1%, 18.1%, and 20.9%. Net profits are projected at 15.145 billion yuan, 18.017 billion yuan, and 21.397 billion yuan, with growth rates of 37.2%, 19.0%, and 18.8% respectively [4][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 22.869 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.83%, and a net profit of 4.147 billion yuan, up 57.04% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve, with a forecasted gross margin of 31.79% in 2025 [9]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 92.749 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 15.145 billion yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 7.31 yuan in 2025 to 10.32 yuan in 2027 [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is strategically positioning itself in the energy storage market, which is anticipated to grow significantly due to increasing demand for renewable energy integration and data center requirements [2]. - The AIDC division is expected to contribute to the company's growth by leveraging existing technological advantages and partnerships with major industry players [2].

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨通润装备（002150.SZ） [Table_Title] 多因素拖累 Q3 业绩，合同负债新高验证经营趋 势 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 通润装备发布 2025 年三季报，2025 前三季度公司实现收入 25.9 亿元，同比增长 6.14%；归 母净利 1.37 亿元，同比增长 27.26%；其中，2025Q3 实现收入 8.82 亿元，同比增长 5.79%， 环比下降 2.14%；归母净利 0.39 亿元，同比增长 29.64%，环比下降 50.12%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 曹海花 王耀 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490524120006 SFC：BQK482 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 通润装备（002150.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 多因素拖累2]Q3 业绩，合同负债新高验证经营趋 势 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium hexafluorophosphate market is experiencing a significant price surge, with expectations for continued demand and improved profitability for leading companies in the sector, although a repeat of previous extreme price spikes is not anticipated [1][4][8]. Price Trends - Lithium hexafluorophosphate prices have rebounded sharply from a low of 49,800 yuan/ton on July 18 to 106,300 yuan/ton on October 30, marking an increase of over 120% in less than four months [2][4]. - The price on October 31 was further adjusted to 110,800 yuan/ton, indicating a volatile pricing environment [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship for lithium hexafluorophosphate has significantly improved, with major companies operating at full capacity and experiencing strong sales [6][10]. - The market is expected to remain in a tight balance until at least 2026, driven by robust demand from the new energy and energy storage sectors, alongside cautious capacity expansion [4][6]. Company Performance - Leading companies such as Tianqi Materials, Dufluor, and Tianji Co. reported improved third-quarter performance, with Tianqi Materials seeing a 52% year-on-year increase in net profit [5][6]. - Dufluor turned a profit in the third quarter with a net profit of 26.72 million yuan, while Tianji Co. significantly reduced its losses [5]. Future Outlook - Companies are optimistic about demand in the first quarter of next year, with expectations for a "not-so-dull" off-season and a potential increase in prices [6][8]. - The industry anticipates that the overall demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate could exceed 300,000 tons next year, with existing capacity and new additions expected to reach around 380,000 tons [8][9]. Market Strategy - Companies are tightening the terms for long-term contracts, requiring upfront payments and adjusting prices based on market conditions [6][7]. - The pricing strategy for long-term contracts is flexible, allowing for monthly adjustments to align with market prices [7]. Capital Expenditure and Production Capacity - The industry has seen low capital expenditure in recent years, leading to a cautious approach to capacity expansion among smaller firms, with future growth primarily expected from leading companies [9][10]. - Tianqi Materials and Dufluor are both planning to enhance their production capabilities through technological upgrades, with Tianqi Materials currently having a capacity of approximately 110,000 tons [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting several companies as key investment opportunities [4][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the easing of China-US trade tensions will drive demand for industrial metals, leading to a positive outlook for prices [2][4]. - It identifies a strong demand for lithium and cobalt, particularly in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, while also noting supply constraints for cobalt due to logistical issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo [3][4]. - The report suggests that gold and silver prices may stabilize in a range due to reduced safe-haven demand, but long-term trends remain positive due to central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [4][71]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report indicates that copper prices have recently surpassed $11,000 per ton, driven by positive signals from China-US trade talks and macroeconomic factors [2][43]. - Aluminum supply is tightening due to production cuts in overseas smelters, while domestic demand remains resilient despite some environmental restrictions [2][21]. - The report notes fluctuations in industrial metal prices, with aluminum up by 1.10%, copper down by 0.51%, and zinc up by 1.01% during the week [1][11]. Energy Metals - Lithium demand continues to exceed expectations, supported by growth in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, leading to a bullish outlook for lithium prices [3][4]. - Cobalt supply remains tight due to export delays from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to maintain upward pressure on cobalt prices [3][4]. - Nickel prices are projected to remain strong despite some inventory accumulation in downstream sectors [3][4]. Precious Metals - The report anticipates that gold prices will enter a consolidation phase, with potential upward movement driven by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar [4][71]. - Recent geopolitical developments have reduced safe-haven demand for precious metals, leading to a technical adjustment in prices [4][71]. - The report recommends several companies in the precious metals sector, including Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold, as strong investment candidates [4][71].

Core Insights - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has surged past 110,000 RMB per ton, with a market average stabilizing at 100,000 RMB per ton, reflecting a more than 22% increase over the past week [2][3] - This price increase is driven more by rising processing fees rather than raw material costs, which is expected to significantly enhance the profitability of leading lithium hexafluorophosphate producers [5] Supply Constraints - The core logic behind the price surge is the severe rigidity on the supply side, with long expansion cycles for lithium hexafluorophosphate production [6] - New production lines require 10 months to start operations after construction, and 18 to 24 months if starting from scratch, with strict regulatory approvals adding to the timeline [6][7] - Capital investment is substantial, with second and third-tier companies needing over 400 million RMB for new projects, leading to cautious expansion strategies [7][8] Producer Feedback - Major manufacturers confirm that the current price increase is not driven by upstream costs, as there is an oversupply of phosphorus pentachloride and stable prices for hydrofluoric acid [9][10] - The only variable is lithium fluoride, which follows the price trends of lithium carbonate but has not seen the same level of increase as lithium hexafluorophosphate [10] Strategic Responses from Leading Companies - Leading companies are exhibiting high strategic discipline in response to market tightness, with Multi-Fluorite attributing the price increase to surging demand from the new energy and energy storage sectors [12][13] - Tianji Co. reports low inventory levels and expects a "not-so-dull" market in Q1 2026 due to low stock allowing for replenishment during the off-season [14] - Tianji anticipates that if global battery cell demand reaches 2.5 TWh in 2026, the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate will exceed 300,000 tons, while nominal supply capacity is around 380,000 tons [14] Market Dynamics and New Demands - The price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate has not fully transmitted to downstream electrolyte products, with some customers still adhering to long-term contracts [20] - The demand for other materials in electrolytes is changing, with an increase in the proportion of LiFSI due to rising demand for fast charging and energy storage [21] - The focus of market discussions has expanded from lithium batteries to the entire fluorochemical industry chain, driven by new demands from AI data centers and semiconductor manufacturing [21][22]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed significant recovery in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high of 4025.70 points by the end of October, leading to a strong return of public equity funds and a surge in "doubling funds" [1] - Major indices performed well in the first ten months, with the STAR 50 and North Exchange 50 indices rising over 50%, at 59.93% and 52.51% respectively, while other indices like the ChiNext Index and CSI 2000 also saw gains exceeding 30% [1] Fund Performance - The average net value growth rate of actively managed equity funds reached 27.48% in the first ten months, with some top-performing funds exceeding 200% [3][7] - Among various fund types, ordinary stock funds and mixed equity funds showed strong performance, with average net value growth rates of 32.93% and 32.33% respectively [6] - Over 98% of actively managed equity funds reported positive net value growth rates, with a significant number achieving new highs [6] Top Performing Funds - A total of 705 actively managed equity funds had net value growth rates exceeding 50%, with 34 funds surpassing 100%, and the best-performing fund, Yongying Technology Smart Selection A, achieving a remarkable 200.63% growth [8][10] - Other notable funds included China Europe Digital Economy A with 134.72% and Hengyue Advantage Selection with 133.97% [10] Index Fund Performance - The communication equipment sector emerged as a major winner, with the communication equipment index rising over 98%, leading to strong performances from related index funds [12] - Notable index funds included Guotai CSI All-Share Communication Equipment ETF, which recorded a 98.87% growth rate, and several innovation drug-related ETFs also performed well, with growth rates between 82% and 90% [12][13] Sector Insights - Fund managers highlighted structural opportunities in sectors such as domestic semiconductor equipment, energy storage, and AI applications [14][15] - The global cloud computing industry remains a focal point for investment, with expectations of increased AI computing power investments [14] - The semiconductor sector is expected to benefit from rising production capacities and demand for storage solutions, particularly in the context of domestic advancements [15]