投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-09 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251114 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策利好预期持续发酵 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡反弹。沪深京三市全天成交额 2.05 万亿元，较上日成交额放量 3126 亿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations of monetary policy easing. The Treasury bond futures are under pressure but also supported, and will mainly be in a range - bound consolidation in the short term [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "sideways consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while long - and medium - term easing expectations still exist [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is "weakening", and the medium - term view is "sideways", with a reference view of "sideways consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures continued to trade sideways yesterday. After the Politburo meeting, fiscal policy will increase fiscal efforts to stabilize aggregate economic demand, and there is an expectation of an increase in ultra - long - term Treasury bonds and special bond quotas, resulting in supply pressure on long - term bonds. However, the monetary policy environment remains moderately loose, so Treasury bond futures are under pressure but also supported, and will mainly trade sideways in the short term [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-09 宏观⽀撑有限，盘⾯延续弱势 中央政治局会议强调继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，未有超预期信号释放。近期钢⼚盈利率有所改善，预计后期钢 材产量难以⼤幅下降，基本⾯在进⼊淡季之后仍有压⼒，钢材盘⾯弱 势运⾏。铁⽔仍有季节性⾛弱预期，蒙煤进⼝仍有增加预期，铁矿、 煤焦盘⾯表现偏弱，玻纯供需过剩继续压制盘⾯价格。 中央政治局会议强调继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，未有超预期信号释放。近期钢厂盈利率有所改善，预计后期钢 材产量难以大幅下降，基本面在进入淡季之后仍有压力，钢材盘面弱 势运行。铁水仍有季节性走弱预期，蒙煤进口仍有增加预期，铁矿、 煤焦盘面表现偏弱，玻纯供需过剩继续压制盘面价格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水下降明显，下游需求下滑，钢厂进行年度检 修，但钢厂盈利率略有好转，补库需求释放仍偏慢。海外矿山发运环 比略增，澳洲发运回升，巴西发运冲高回落，非主流发运环比大幅增 加，本期到港环比减量明显。但港口库存环比继续累积，钢厂库存环 比增加，整体仍有累库压力。废钢基本面矛盾有限，现货 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy and Outlook - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes the need for a stable yet progressive economic approach for 2026, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement [1][7] - The meeting highlights the continuation of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, aiming to enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness [1][7] - Key strategies include promoting domestic demand, fostering innovation, pushing for reforms, enhancing foreign cooperation, and ensuring coordinated development [1][7] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - The 10-year government bond yield has risen to 1.833%, with mixed performance in government bonds [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for November stands at 49.2, indicating a slight increase, while exports have grown by 5.7% year-on-year, reflecting strong foreign trade resilience [2][9] - The market anticipates policy adjustments following the Central Political Bureau meeting, which may influence bond market dynamics [2][9] Group 3: Commodity Insights - Palm oil exports from Malaysia are expected to decrease by 16.4% in November, while production is forecasted to drop by 4.38%, indicating a potential inventory build-up [3][24] - Copper prices have declined due to tight supply conditions, with smelting profits at breakeven levels, while overall production continues to grow [3][16] - The overall sentiment in the commodity market remains cautious, with various factors influencing price movements across different sectors [3][16][24] Group 4: Financial Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market shows signs of stagnation, with a decrease of 9,000 non-farm jobs in November, raising expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [10] - The stock market is expected to remain volatile ahead of significant policy announcements from both the Federal Reserve and the Central Economic Work Conference in China [8] - The overall market sentiment is leaning towards defensive positioning as investors await clearer policy signals [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-09 中国原油进⼝延续⾼增⻓，纯苯港⼝库 存压⼒较⼤ 12月8日我国召开中央政治局会议，领导人明确将扩大内需作为 2026年的首要经济任务，并承诺加大跨周期调节力度，会议也表示继续实 施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。当日我国公布外贸数据， 11月出口同比增5.9%，进口增1.9%；其中11月我国原油进口5089万吨，同 比增长4.88%，累积增长3.2%。正如我们一再提及的，2025年全球石油需 求都有些超预期表现。油价在连续三日上涨后小幅走低，普京上周承诺将 向印度"不间断供应"燃料，市场密切关注俄罗斯原油的销售进展。 板块逻辑： 液体化工库存近期走势略有分化。乙二醇华东港口周一数据显示累库 8.06%，近几周乙二醇持续累库，且1月新装置投产在即。纯苯周度累库累 库16%，纯苯库存直逼近五年最高，而不仅仅是季节性五年最高；因为苯 乙烯装置前期的检修，苯乙烯周度去库，港口库存仍是五年最高，因货源 较为集中，苯乙烯期价强于纯苯。近期煤炭价格也连日走弱，因冬季取暖 不及预期且逐步累库，煤化工的成本支撑因此弱化 ...

转自：新华财经 •中共中央政治局召开会议 分析研究2026年经济工作 继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策 •11月我国货物贸易进出口总值同比增长4.1% 比上月加快4个百分点 •上期所：贵金属市场波动较大 请各有关单位提示投资者做好风险防范 •中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求 进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经 济治理效能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能；坚持改革攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动 多领域合作共赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多办实事；坚持守牢底 线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。（新华社） •上海期货交易所8日发布做好市场风险控制工作的通知称，近期国际形势复杂多变，贵金属市场波动较大，请各有关单位采取相应措施，提示投资者做好风 险防范工作，理性投资，共同维 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3924 points, up 0.54%, and the ChiNext Index rising by 2.6% [1] - The total market turnover was approximately 2.05 trillion, showing an increase compared to the previous period [1] Key Focus Areas - The market's rise was primarily driven by gains in non-bank financials and technology stocks, supported by insurance funds adjusting risk factors to release more investable capital [2] - The Politburo meeting emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, indicating a favorable policy environment [2] - Despite the A-share market's increase, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.2%, suggesting weak foreign capital inflow and limited signs of savings migration [2] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index filled the gap from November 21 and closed slightly above the 20-day moving average, indicating that the technical rebound target has been achieved [2] - Future movements may require consolidation rather than a sustained upward trend, with attention on the potential for a "hawkish rate cut" from the Federal Reserve [2] External Market Conditions - Overnight, U.S. stock markets saw slight declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.45% and the Nasdaq down 0.14% [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to approximately 4.16%, indicating a shift in bond market sentiment [3] - The A50 index and Hang Seng futures showed minor declines, reflecting a stable external environment [3] Investment Strategy - The strategy leans towards a rotational approach, focusing on sectors such as industrial machinery, satellite internet, and semiconductor equipment materials, which are seen as key areas for investment [3] - Continuous monitoring of external policy changes, including potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, is essential for guiding investment decisions [3]

NO.2央行公开市场开展1223亿元7天期逆回购操作 NO.1 中共中央政治局：明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效 每经编辑：张益铭 据央视新闻，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全 面依法治国工作条例》。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切 实提升宏观经济治理效能。 NO.4美联储议息会议在即，市场预期再次降息可能性大 据央视新闻，美国联邦储备委员会定于9日和10日举行货币政策例会并公布议息决定。市场普遍认为， 美联储再次降息可能性较大。市场人士表示，近期美国就业市场数据疲软，美联储很可能在本月降息25 个基点，当前国际金融市场走势已体现美联储降息预期。 点评：市场普遍预期美联储将在即将到来的议息会议上再次降息，这种预期显然受近期疲软的就业数据 影响。持续的降息显示出美联储致力于通过货币政策刺激经济的决心，旨在应对经济增速放缓及全球经 济不确定性。 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on December 8, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 122.3 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 107.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 14.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market funding conditions remained stable, with the weighted average interest rate of DR001 slightly rising but still at a low level of 1.3% [3] - Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system remained at 1.28%, indicating ample supply [3] - Non-bank institutions borrowed overnight funds using credit bonds as collateral, with quotes slightly decreasing to the range of 1.45%-1.47% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was at 1.66%, unchanged from the previous day [7] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline in the 30-year main contract by 0.29%, while the 10-year main contract increased by 0.02% [12] Group 5: Economic Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need for a stable yet progressive economic approach for 2026, advocating for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [13] - Key focuses include enhancing domestic demand, fostering innovation, and promoting high-quality development while ensuring risk management in critical areas [13] Group 6: Global Economic Context - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to announce a potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points in its upcoming meeting, influenced by recent weak employment data [16] - Japan's government submitted a supplementary budget for 2025, with general account expenditures reaching a record high post-COVID, primarily funded through additional bond issuance [16] - Japan's GDP for Q3 showed a larger-than-expected contraction, confirming the first decline in six quarters [16]