衡量美元对六种主要货币汇率变化的美元指数过去数月来大幅震荡走低。截至北京时间4月21日12时，洲 际交易所美元指数报98.40，跌幅0.98%，跌破99关口，为2022年4月以来首次。 分析人士认为，美元指数前期走低主要受美国经济增速下调和经济衰退可能性增加驱动，近日该指数大幅 下跌则是进一步受到投资者对美元信心动摇和资金从美国流出的影响。有媒体刊文称，美国贸易政策反复 变动，世界开始质疑美元作为世界储备货币的作用。 "特朗普关税政策正在毁掉美元" 德意志银行日前警告，美国政府的政策决定可能导致全球"去美元化"加剧，市场参与者在重新评估美元作 为世界储备货币的吸引力。 德国《每日新闻》网站刊文认为，特朗普的关税政策正在毁掉美元。美国近期关税政策朝令夕改且常常自 相矛盾，有很大的随意性和不可预测性，在这种情况下，企业缺乏对美政策确定性的明确预期。用德国商 业银行外汇专家安特耶·普雷夫克的话说，"损害已经造成，信任已经摧毁"。美元作为避风港的地位正在迅 速崩溃，市场开始质疑美元作为世界储备货币的作用。只要全球经济事务中所有参与者都存在这种不确定 性，美元就不太可能大幅复苏。 △《纽约时报》刊文"美元持续下跌 其' ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in market expectations from "American exceptionalism" to concerns about liquidity challenges in the U.S. market, particularly in light of upcoming corporate debt maturities and the potential impact of U.S. monetary policy [1][19]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. market recently experienced a rare simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, indicating heightened market volatility and uncertainty [1]. - The dollar index has surpassed the psychological level of 100, with expectations that it may continue to rise in the second and third quarters of the year [3]. - Funds are shifting from high-yield U.S. markets to lower-yield, more liquid markets like Japan, raising concerns about global liquidity [5]. Group 2: Debt and Liquidity Risks - The article highlights that all crises are essentially debt crises disguised as other narratives, with historical examples illustrating how corporate debt maturity spikes can lead to market turmoil [7][10]. - Current liquidity indicators suggest that a liquidity crisis is just beginning, with specific metrics indicating that the market has not yet reached critical levels of risk [19]. - The article outlines three key observation markers for liquidity: the spread between onshore and offshore dollar liquidity, the dollar index's decline rate, and the OAS (option-adjusted spread) for U.S. investment-grade and high-yield bonds [16][18]. Group 3: Potential Scenarios - Three scenarios are proposed for future market developments: - Pessimistic: Both the White House and the Federal Reserve do not compromise, leading to a prolonged period of economic stagnation and declining risk appetite [22]. - Baseline: Either the White House or the Federal Reserve makes concessions, potentially stabilizing the market and improving risk sentiment [22]. - Optimistic: The White House proactively compromises, leading to a reversal in market sentiment before significant corporate bankruptcies occur [22].

美国通胀超预期降温，3月核心CPI创四年来最低同比增速，并且CPI近五年来首次环比下降。但关税战升级的威胁压倒了通胀放缓的利好，成为 市场关注的焦点，投资者担忧情绪重占上风，美股、美元这类美国资产遭抛售，避险资产瑞郎、日元、黄金全线上涨。 据央视新闻，中国商务部周四回应中方是否就关税问题与美展开谈判表示，谈，大门敞开；打，奉陪到底；外交部驻港公署发言人致信媒体阐明 中方严正立场，信中提到，妄图挥舞关税大棒逼迫世界各国打电话认输的野蛮人永远不要指望等到中国的电话。 美股未能保住周三的大反弹，周四三大美股指一度至少跌超5%，标普500指数曾跌超6%、接近熔断。美元指数创2022年以来的最大单日跌幅。 长债抛售升温，继续推升长期美国国债的收益率，十年期美债收益率一度升超10个基点。不过，美国3月CPI公布后，长债收益率曾收窄升幅，两 年期美债收益率降幅扩大、一度跳水超10个基点。 避险货币瑞郎和日元强劲反弹，瑞郎兑美元一度涨近4%，创2015年来最大盘中涨幅。同为避险资产的黄金加速上涨，现货黄金时隔一周再创盘 中历史新高。国际原油因贸易战持续的担忧而重回跌势，美国能源部EIA报告因关税及其对经济影响的不确定性而大幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investors' stance on the US stock market is wavering, with Morgan Stanley indicating that the market may face deeper adjustments if foreign capital begins to question the "American exceptionalism" narrative and withdraws from the US market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "fast money" has exited the market, with hedge fund net exposure dropping to 37%, currently rising to 39%, which is in the 2nd percentile since 2010 [2]. - Macro systemic leverage has decreased to the 14th percentile, following a sell-off of $375 billion in stocks [2]. - Retail investors have not capitulated yet, and long-term investment clients of QDS have not shown panic selling [2]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Concerns - Foreign investors have steadily increased their holdings in US stocks over the past 30 years, currently owning 18% of US equities [2]. - If this group begins to question the "American exceptionalism" and reduces their investments in US stocks, it could lead to more downside risks in the market [2]. Group 3: Tactical Outlook - QDS anticipates that stocks may be more likely to rise than fall in the coming week, but the market is expected to retest lows in the coming months due to the impact of tariff shocks and slow-moving investor sell-offs [5]. - Recent signs of capitulation include hedge fund net exposure falling below 40% and the VIX index exceeding 50, but a complete correlated sell-off has not yet occurred [6]. Group 4: Key Issues Influencing Market Direction - Four major issues are highlighted as critical for market direction: - Fundamentals: The impact of tariffs will take months to fully manifest, with historical data showing that a 20% drop in the S&P 500 typically indicates a recession [7]. - Federal Reserve: The Fed's response to economic slowdown may lag behind the situation, as indicated by Powell's comments suggesting they are not in a hurry [7]. - Foreign Flows: Actual funds, especially from outside the US, could have the most significant downside impact on the market [8]. - Financial Leverage: While much leverage has been removed from the system, not all has been, and the market is shorting Gamma values [8].

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the implications of new tariffs implemented by the U.S. government, particularly focusing on trade relations with China and other countries. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Tariff Structure**: The new tariff plan includes two main components: a baseline tariff of 10% and higher reciprocal tariffs, with specific rates for different countries, such as 20% for the EU, 24% for Japan, and 46% for Vietnam [1][2]. 2. **Adjustment Flexibility**: President Trump indicated that tariffs could be adjusted based on trade deficits and non-reciprocal treatment, allowing for potential termination of tariffs if certain conditions are met [2][3]. 3. **Negotiation Signals**: The administration's approach suggests that countries willing to negotiate trade agreements may see their tariffs suspended, signaling a potential for diplomatic resolutions [3][11]. 4. **Exemptions and Additional Tariffs**: Certain goods, including copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, may be exempt from tariffs, while the overall tariff structure may include additional layers beyond existing tariffs [4][6]. 5. **Market Expectations vs. Reality**: The actual tariff implementation was more aggressive than market expectations, which were relatively optimistic prior to the announcement [7][8][9]. 6. **Impact on Emerging Markets**: Countries like Vietnam face severe economic impacts due to high tariff rates, which could lead to significant economic challenges [11][12]. 7. **Domestic Economic Concerns**: The U.S. economy is showing signs of potential downturn, with concerns about inflation and economic recession becoming more pronounced [22][23]. 8. **Future Policy Directions**: The U.S. may need to balance aggressive tariff policies with domestic economic stability, especially in light of upcoming elections [25][26]. 9. **China's Economic Response**: China is expected to face increased economic pressure due to the tariffs, but it has set a GDP growth target of 5% for the year, indicating a proactive fiscal policy stance [26][27]. 10. **Investment Opportunities**: The current market volatility may present trading opportunities, particularly in U.S. equities and gold, as the situation evolves [17][28]. Other Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Long-term Economic Outlook**: The potential for a recession in the U.S. is increasing, with historical patterns suggesting that economic downturns often follow significant policy changes [22]. 2. **Inflationary Pressures**: The combination of tariffs and domestic policies may lead to rising inflation, complicating the economic landscape [23]. 3. **Policy Adjustments**: Future adjustments to tariffs may depend on the success of domestic economic reforms and the political landscape leading up to elections [14][30]. 4. **Global Economic Interconnections**: The tariffs are likely to have ripple effects on global markets, influencing currency valuations and trade balances [16][18]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the complexities of the current trade environment and its implications for various stakeholders.

点击小程序查看报告原文 2025年以来，全球AI、财政与地缘关系叙事发生重要变化，带动全球资产和资金流向出现"东升西落"迹象。 年初至今，以科技"七姐妹"（-12.4%）为代 表的美国科技股领跌全球，美元也由1月高点的110回落至104附近，回吐特朗普当选以来全部涨幅。与之相反，以恒生科技（23.1%）为代表中国科技股领 涨全球，欧洲股市（11.7%）涨幅也领先。 资金也出现小幅"东升西落"， 流入中国和欧洲市场的海外资金明显回升，流入美国的海外资金经历前两周的小 幅回落后本周又转为回升，趋势尚未彻底逆转。 图表：2025年以来全球资产出现"东升西落"趋势，美国科技龙头领跌，而港股和欧股领涨全球 注：数据截至3月28日 资料来源：Bloomberg，FactSet，中金公司研究部 方向比节奏更重要， 2024年只要抓住美股、中债和黄金，整体收益就不会差。 因此"东升西落"能否真的发生、还只是"昙花一现"，是关乎未来投资主线 乃至全球格局的核心问题。 而要想回答这个问题，就首先要搞清楚美国"例外论"是否瓦解。 我们将在本文中就这一问题详细解答。 美国的"例外论"与全球资产的"东升西落" 所谓美国"例外论"，主要 ...

重阳说 2025年一季度的资本市场在一种叙事突变的氛围中开局。春节期间，Deepseek横空出世，让全球对中国硬 科技的突破刮目相看。电影院里，魔童哪吒大闹东海龙宫，票房连破纪录，闯进全球影史前五且尚未止步。 现实内外的交相辉映极大地提振了投资者的风险偏好，中国资产价值重估成为主流叙事，结构性牛市行情逐 渐清晰，指数攀升至3400点附近，此前重阳看好的泛科技、创新药等板块已经收获了一波涨幅。经过一季度 的修复，展望后市，政策与市场大的演绎方向是什么？结构性机会如何把握？本期"重阳S4"圆桌请出重阳投 资合伙人、战略研究部主管寇志伟以及基金经理谭伟、胡敏、陈奋涛、赵阳来进行一一解答。 "重阳S4"是重阳多位基金经理共同管理同一只基金这一模式的简称。具体来讲， 就是在公司投资决策委员会统 一的策略指引下，同一只基金通过分仓的方式由多位基金经理共同参与管理，每位基金经理在自己的分仓范 围内进行相对独立操作。实践证明，多基金经理共管模式能够帮助打造投资管理超级能力圈，实现投资业绩 可持续、投研能力可迭代、投资风格可复制、管理规模可拓展的目标。多基金经理共管模式起源于美国，已 经成为当今全球资管行业里大多数头部基金普遍 ...

中国 "美国例外论"退潮，全球最大资管看好中日股市！ 随着今年市场上关于美国例外论的叙事逐渐消退，日本和中国市场可能成为寻求回报的投资者的归属。 在贸易不确定性和经济前景黯淡的背景下，2025年美国市场一直动荡不安。近期股市的回调引发了这样 的讨论：对于投资者来说，将目光投向海外或许比寄希望于美国股市回升更为明智。在经历了多年的表 现不佳之后，国际股票突然成为焦点，其表现超过了美国同行。 根据贝莱德（BlackRock）的观点，有两个市场尤其值得投资者投入资金。 日本 这家全球最大的资产管理公司认为，日本公司的盈利前景有所改善。企业改革和温和的通胀将起到推动 作用，并且已经使得日本公司的股本回报率达到了峰值。贝莱德指出，日本公司的企业盈利能力最近达 到了40年来的最高水平。 上周，日本东证指数（Topix）上涨了3.3%，远超标普500指数0.5%的单周涨幅。 不过，贝莱德补充称，日元走强的可能性可能会削弱盈利前景。虽然日元升值的速度已经放缓，但交易 员们仍需关注日本的经济数据以及日本央行的行动。 就贝莱德而言，它仍然超配美国市场，押注人工智能主题带来的上涨空间以及更广泛的盈利增长。然 而，长期债券收益率的飙 ...

全球瞭望丨英媒：关税政策等打击"美国例外论" 新华社伦敦3月25日电（记者赵修知）英国《金融时报》网站日前刊文说，最近几周，由于美国关 税政策以及经济前景的不确定性，美国股市和美元齐跌，令"美国例外论"遭遇现实阻击。文章摘要如 下： 去年11月特朗普赢得美国总统选举后，美股和美元均大幅上涨。但今年1月以来，市场信心正快速 瓦解，特朗普政府对从主要贸易伙伴进口的产品加征高额关税并威胁采取更多措施，让投资者开始质疑 美国资产的优异表现还能持续多久。 美国加利福尼亚州教师退休基金首席投资官斯科特·陈表示，特朗普政府"令人震惊的大量行政 令"已导致"市场出现巨大不确定性"。"这些潜在风险前所未有。它们正在改变世界。" 今年以来，美元对一篮子货币已下跌4%，美国标准普尔500指数下跌近4%。高盛集团的研究显 示，华尔街股票和美元同时如此大幅度持续下跌并不寻常，在过去25年里只出现过几次。 这表明，投资者近年来押注美国经济跑赢其他经济体、争夺美国金融资产而导致其他主要市场受损 的情况正在发生逆转。近期美元和美股出现动荡，源于特朗普政府不断升级的贸易战动摇全球金融市 场，引发人们对世界最大经济体发展轨迹的担忧。 美国摩根资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant shifts in global markets and U.S. economic policy, particularly focusing on the transition from Biden's economic strategies to Trump's proposed "Great Reset" aimed at addressing the issues left by the previous administration [2][9]. Group 1: Biden's Economic Cycle - The "Biden Cycle" involved massive fiscal stimulus post-pandemic, leading to high growth, high interest rates, and a booming stock market, which attracted foreign capital and supported a strong dollar [2][3]. - However, this cycle has two critical flaws: the risk of high debt and increasing wealth inequality, which could lead to a long-term depreciation of the dollar if the dual deficits exceed a certain threshold [3][6][8]. - The wealth disparity has worsened, with the top 10% benefiting from asset appreciation while the bottom 50% face rising costs of living, undermining the "American Dream" [7][8]. Group 2: Trump's Great Reset - Trump's approach, termed the "Great Reset," aims to reduce government spending, deregulate financial markets, and adjust international trade policies to revive the middle class [11][13][15]. - The reset seeks to shift the capital structure from financial to industrial capital, addressing the high debt levels by controlling new debt and restructuring existing debt [16][18]. - Key strategies include significant cuts to government spending, encouraging private sector leverage, and reintroducing tariffs to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. [13][14][15]. Group 3: Implications for Financial Markets - The article highlights the potential for a significant shift in the dollar's role in global finance, as reduced U.S. trade deficits could lead to decreased demand for dollar assets, challenging the high valuations of U.S. equities [47][48]. - Trump's policies may lead to a scenario where the dollar loses its safe-haven status, with both the stock market and the dollar potentially declining together [50]. - The article warns of a "triple kill" risk for U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar, particularly if the debt ceiling is resolved without debt restructuring, which could trigger market volatility [52]. Group 4: Future Scenarios - The potential for a "Hail Mary" approach, such as the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," could involve restructuring U.S. debt with other nations in exchange for tariff concessions [53]. - If traditional monetary policy tools like interest rate cuts fail, the Federal Reserve may resort to quantitative easing or yield curve control to stabilize the economy [54]. - The article concludes that the outcome of Trump's policies could either lead to a new era of prosperity or exacerbate existing issues, with significant implications for asset valuations and market stability [56][58].