| CTERET | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 日度 策略参考 | | | | 发布日期:2025/ | | 人 中 谷 若 · F D · F · F · F · F | | | | 行业板块 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 短期内股指预计偏强震荡为主,警惕关税政策的反复,时间节点 | | | 震荡 | 关注本月底可能于韩国APEC会议期间开展的中美领导人会晤。 | | 国债 | 준间。 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 宏观金融 | | 避险降温和获利回吐引发贵金属价格下挫；但美国政府停摆持 | | | 震荡 | 续、美联储10月仍有降息预期等,金价不宜过度悲观,短期或进 | | | | 入震荡走势。 | | 白银 | 農汤 | 短期或偏空震荡,但仍需关注伦敦实物紧张情况。 | | - 10 | 看多 | 短期全球贸易摩擦有所反复,铜价波动加剧。但铜矿供应扰动持 | | | | 续发酵,叠加美联储降息预期提升,铜价有望偏强运行。 | | | | 电解铝基本面喜忧参半,预计价格震荡运行。 | | 氧化铝 | | 在生产仍有 ...

Core Points - The total U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $38 trillion as of October 21, marking a rapid increase from $37 trillion just two months prior [1][2] - The growth rate of the debt has accelerated significantly, with the time taken to increase from $30 trillion to $38 trillion being only three years, and the time to increase by $1 trillion now measured in months rather than years [3] - The current federal debt is 126.8% of GDP, exceeding the IMF's recommended threshold of 100% for developed economies, and is projected to reach 133% by 2035 without major reforms [3] Debt Sustainability Concerns - The high level of debt has raised market concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. debt, especially in light of the recent government shutdown, which has intensified worries about economic impacts [4] - The ongoing political conflicts are expected to further damage the economy, making the current "borrow new to pay old" debt strategy increasingly difficult to maintain [4] Investor Behavior and Market Reactions - Investors are buying U.S. Treasuries driven by risk-averse sentiment, betting that the Federal Reserve will continue to ease tightening policies to support employment and mitigate economic downturn risks [6] - As of October 22, the 2-year Treasury yield reached a new low of 3.38%, while the 10-year yield was at 3.95%, indicating a trend towards lower yields amid economic uncertainty [6] Inflation and Federal Reserve Actions - The upcoming release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to show a 0.3% increase in both overall and core CPI, maintaining core inflation around 3.1% [6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, with a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 95.5% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [7]

汇通财经APP讯——今年以来，黄金表现依然抢眼，受地缘政治紧张局势、经济不确定性、美国降息预 期以及ETF强劲流入的推动，金价累计涨幅高达57%。这一亮眼表现离不开全球市场对避险资产的旺盛 需求。然而，近期国际贸易局势的缓和以及俄乌和平前景的初步显现，部分削弱了黄金的避险吸引力， 导致部分投资者选择在高位获利了结。 周三（10月22日）现货黄金盘中一度下跌近3%，触及近两周低点4004.46美元/盎司，延续了前一日5.3% 的罕见单日跌幅。然而，多重因素吸引逢低买盘帮助金价守住4000关口，并一度回升至4160附近，纽约 时段再度下探4000关口附近支撑，但再度在逢低买盘的支撑下反弹，尾盘金价回升至4098.29美元/盎 司，跌幅收窄至0.64%。这一走势反映了市场在关键经济数据发布前的谨慎情绪。周四（10月23日）亚 市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于4195美元/盎司附近。 High Ridge Futures金属交易主管David Meger指出，鉴于金价过去几周的显著上涨，在美国消费者物价 指数（CPI）报告发布前出现获利回吐并不意外。技术面上，金价在4005美元的21日移动均线处获得支 撑，显示短 ...

•财信期货：市场情绪趋于平稳后黄金依以逢低做多为主 •新湖期货：关注伦敦金4000美元以及伦银48美元的关键技术关口 •东吴期货：投机性多头头寸可能已过度累积，进一步放大了此次贵金属回调幅度 •盛宝银行：金银正在经历早该出现的调整，但大幅抛售后仍被低估 •MKS PAMP：经历了周二的抛售后，贵金属可能需要币预期更长的时间才能重新站稳脚跟 盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示，黄金和白银价格正在经历早就应该出现的调整，白银的大 幅下跌突显了这两种金属之间的流动性缺口，但两者在投资组合中的持有量仍然不足，反弹背后的结构 性驱动因素仍然完好无损。汉森补充称，在经历了年内迄今的大幅上涨之后，金银这两种金属都应该进 行调整，以防止形成泡沫，但从长期来看，对2026年黄金和白银走势仍持乐观态度。"推动今年贵金属 历史性上涨的事态发展并没有消失，并且可能会继续为不再超买但投资组合中仍不足的金属提供支 撑。"汉森表示。 MKS PAMP研究与金属策略主管Nicky Shiels在其最新报告中指出，黄金市场仅用30周时间就从每盎司 3000美元反弹至4000美元，远快于之前1000美元涨幅所用的周期。在她看来，尽 ...

换资前言： 市场瞬息万变，顺势而为，才是王道，趋势来了就是干，不要逆势操作，免得难受煎熬。交易切记不要 意气用事，市场专治各种不服，所以一定不要扛单，相信很多人都深有体会，越抗越慌，浮亏不断放 大，搞的吃不好睡不好，还白白错过很多机会，如果你也有这些烦恼，那不妨跟上金晟富的节奏来试 试，看看能否让你豁然开朗。如果你需要帮助，本人金晟富会一直在这儿，但如果你连手都不伸，我又 怎么能帮到你呢？ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周四（10月23日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于4085美元/盎司附近。周三（10月22日） 现货黄金盘中一度下跌近3%，触及近两周低点4004.46美元/盎司，延续了前一日5.3%的罕见单日跌 幅。然而，多重因素吸引逢低买盘帮助金价守住4000关口，并一度回升至4160附近，纽约时段再度下探 4000关口附近支撑，但再度在逢低买盘的支撑下反弹，尾盘金价回升至4098.29美元/盎司，跌幅收窄至 0.64%。这一走势反映了市场在关键经济数据发布前的谨慎情绪。今年以来，黄金表现依然抢眼，受地 缘政治紧张局势、经济不确定性、美国降息预期以及ETF强劲流入的推 ...

Core Points - The German Ministry of Finance announced that it will cover the salaries of German employees working for the U.S. military in Germany if a U.S. government shutdown prevents salary payments [1][3] - The German public service union expressed concerns that the current U.S. government may not fulfill its obligations to pay local employees at overseas bases during a shutdown, unlike previous instances [3] - An agreement has been reached between the German federal government and the state of Rhineland-Palatinate, where U.S. military bases are located, to provide salary advances in case of U.S. default [3] - The advanced salaries will be reimbursed once the U.S. government resumes operations, and this action is described as a gesture of solidarity with the U.S. military and its employees [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government has entered its 22nd day of a shutdown, marking the second-longest shutdown in history [1] - The Senate has rejected a temporary budget proposal for the 12th time, with a vote of 54 in favor and 46 against, failing to reach the required 60 votes [1] - The core disagreement between the two parties revolves around healthcare budget provisions, with Democrats insisting on including healthcare-related clauses in the temporary budget [1] Group 2 - Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries requested a meeting with President Trump to discuss the budget, which Trump declined, stating he would only meet after the government reopens [1] - Senator Merkley delivered a speech lasting 22 hours and 37 minutes in the Senate, expressing dissatisfaction with the Trump administration and Republican leadership, setting a record for the fourth-longest speech in Senate history [2]

Core Points - The U.S. government has entered its 22nd day of a shutdown, marking the second-longest shutdown in history, with no end in sight [1] - The longest shutdown occurred in December 2018, lasting nearly five weeks, triggered by a funding standoff over Trump's immigration policy [1] - The current shutdown is due to Senate Democrats refusing to vote on a short-term funding bill proposed by Republicans, citing the lack of provisions for increased healthcare spending [1] Group 1 - The Democratic Party demands an extension of enhanced tax subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, or else millions of Americans will face significant increases in health insurance premiums by 2026 [1] - Republicans accuse Democrats of holding the government "hostage" and refusing to negotiate on healthcare issues [2] - Despite holding a 53-47 majority in the Senate, any funding bill requires 60 votes to pass, leading to 11 failed votes on previously passed temporary funding resolutions from the House [2] Group 2 - A proposed military funding bill by Republicans also failed in procedural voting [2] - Senate Majority Leader McConnell stated that negotiations have occurred, but Democrats' conditions are deemed completely unacceptable [2] - Democrats are urging Trump to personally engage in discussions to resolve the shutdown, but McConnell indicated that the government must reopen first before any talks can proceed [2]

北京时间10月21日晚间 国际贵金属市场遭遇剧烈震荡 现货黄金价格单日暴跌5.3% 创下2020年8月以来最大跌幅 白银价格也同步下挫近7%。 今天 "金价银价急跌"话题冲上热搜 在社交媒体上，不少买入黄金的网友心态"崩"了。 这场突如其来的暴跌背后 隐藏着怎样的市场逻辑？ 未来走势如何？ 预计黄金跟白银，长线还是维持上涨态势，一方面是美元在市场上受到信任性的下滑，然后导致避险资金主要流向了黄金资产。另外一方面，是美联储降 息路径的确定性，使得流动性预期向好。白银，它的宏观面影响是跟黄金是类似的，但是白银本身也是一个工业金属，所以说它的基本面也会影响它的走 势，长期以来全球矿山资本支出的减少，使得白银产量在近几年并有并没有上升，而全球光伏产业的扩张，也使得白银的赤字也是愈发严重，进而推升了 白银价格。但是后续仍需要关注美国政府停摆终止的节点，也或许会造成白银跟黄金的一个小幅的回调，但长线仍然是看涨为主。 目前黄金价格的长期上涨趋势没有发生改变。这个阶段性的环境价格下跌主要是市场情绪方面影响，引发的技术性回调。市场风险点在于当下阶段黄金仍 处于绝对高位，投资者在做黄金投资时做好风险管理，避免因黄金的波动性风险造 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market has recently experienced a significant overall correction due to the concentrated release of long - position profit - taking sentiment at high levels and the weakening of market risk - aversion sentiment. The short - term trend of gold and silver is expected to be mainly wide - range fluctuations, with attention focused on the US CPI data released on Friday. The support for London gold is at the $4000 mark, but there is a need to guard against subsequent correction risks. The attention range for the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is 900 - 1000 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract is 11000 - 11500 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 952.56 yuan/gram, down 41.5 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 11404 yuan/kilogram, down 401 yuan. - The main contract open interest of Shanghai Gold is 192,803 lots, down 12,307 lots; that of Shanghai Silver is 386,233 lots, down 38,321 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract is 110,696 lots, down 9432 lots; that of Shanghai Silver is 97,632 lots, up 6359 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 87,015 kilograms, up 450 kilograms; that of silver is 691,688 kilograms, down 57,674 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price is 943.5 yuan/gram, down 49.4 yuan; the silver spot price is 11,303 yuan/kilogram, down 548 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 9.06 yuan/gram, down 7.9 yuan; that of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 101 yuan/kilogram, down 147 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 1058.66 tons, unchanged; the silver ETF holdings are 15,676.64 tons, down 93.13 tons. - The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 266,749 contracts, up 339 contracts; that of silver is 52,276 contracts, up 738 contracts. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 28.14%, up 0.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.33%, up 0.5%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 34.39%, down 0.58%; that of at - the - money put options is 34.39%, down 0.59% [2] 3.5 Industry News - UK inflation "unexpectedly remained unchanged", leading the market to increase bets on interest - rate cuts. The September CPI year - on - year was 3.8%, the same as the previous month, lower than the expected 4.0%. - European leaders issued a joint statement supporting negotiations to promote a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and agreed with Trump's proposal of an immediate cease - fire and using the current contact line as the starting point for negotiations. - Recently, a large amount of silver has flowed from the US and China into the London spot market, alleviating the liquidity crunch in the world's largest over - the - counter precious metals trading center. The one - month silver lending rate in London has dropped from a record high of 35% on October 10th to 19%, confirming that the tight silver spot situation has been alleviated [2]