Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: None - **Hold (★★☆)**: None - **Watch (★☆☆)**: Corn, Hog, Egg - **Sell (White Star)**: Soybean, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, and trade relations. Overall, the market is complex and volatile, and investors need to pay close attention to policy and fundamental changes [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybean - Domestic soybeans rose and then fell, with all 44,835 tons of state reserve auctions today going unsold at a reserve price of 3,900 yuan/ton, and the demand for transactions has deteriorated. The market is still worried about the export demand of US soybeans, and China has not yet purchased the new US soybean crop. US soybean prices are expected to be pressured by the demand side [2] Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal, M2601, slightly increased positions and declined. Currently, the arrival volume of domestic soybeans is large, and inventories are sufficient. Overall, the supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a problem. If Sino-US trade relations continue to deteriorate and the time is prolonged, the overall supply in the first quarter of next year may tighten. The soybean meal market is currently affected by domestic and foreign policies and is fluctuating weakly. It is recommended to continue to wait and see [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Weak global crude oil prices and uncertainties in Sino-US trade are pressuring risk assets, and there is a need to be cautious about the potential drag on vegetable oils. The near-term demand for palm oil in the international market is weak, but the Indonesian market gives an expectation of a further increase in the biodiesel blending ratio in the long term. The palm oil market has resilience as it enters the production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. Domestic soybean oil is in a state of high inventory due to supply exceeding demand. In the context of the continued growth of the global biodiesel trend and the demand risks faced by US soybeans, it is expected that oils will be more resilient, and oils will be stronger than meals. In the medium and long term, it is expected that oils will still have resilience, and investors should wait for the price to find a bottom and then go long at low prices [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market fluctuated little today. Overall, the external oilseed market lacks guidance from USDA data, and there are also risks of uncertain economic and trade relations at the macro level. The Sino-Canadian agricultural product trade relationship is difficult to ease before Canada changes its tariff policy. An oil company will hold a special two-way bidding and trading session for rapeseed oil purchases and sales on October 17, involving 18,230 tons of rapeseed oil. The domestic rapeseed market is still in a state of inventory reduction, but the inventory reduction is expected to be slow. Overall, the driving force for a single side is not significant, and it is expected that the rapeseed futures price will fluctuate in the short term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures continued to rebound from the bottom today. The Huanghuaihai corn producing area is continuing to rush to harvest and dry the corn. The price of corn in Northeast China has declined, but the range is narrowing. The volume of corn arriving at Shandong's spot market has decreased to less than 1,000 tons, and the price is weakly stable. The opening price of corn in Northeast China has declined from a high level, but some state reserve depots in Heilongjiang have started to purchase at around 2,000 yuan/ton for 14% moisture corn, which currently has little impact on the market. The volume of new corn coming onto the market in Northeast China will continue to increase in the next two weeks. Currently, corn is still weak at the bottom, but the phased bottom is getting closer [7] Hog - Except for the November contract, other hog futures contracts hit new lows, with a total increase in positions of 15,000 lots. The spot price rebounded and exceeded 11 yuan/kg, mainly affected by factors such as second-round fattening, reluctance to sell, and increased slaughter volume. The current average spot price is in the range of 10 - 11 yuan/kg, which is at the bottom of the historical hog cycle. However, from a fundamental perspective, there are no obvious bullish factors, and the monthly output of large-scale enterprises is expected to continue to increase in October. Currently, the profits of the entire industry chain have turned negative, and the inventory of breeding sows decreased in September. In the medium term, this will support the contracts for the second half of next year [8] Egg - The spot price of eggs generally increased, with a relatively large increase in some areas. The futures generally closed down, with a total increase in positions of 20,000 lots, and the contracts for February, March, and April next year hit new lows. The short-term spot sales are relatively fast due to low prices, resulting in a short-term rebound. The egg price is at the cash flow balance or loss state, and the culling of old hens is still slow. There is a risk of further decline in the egg price in the medium term [9]

Core Insights - Gold prices are experiencing a record rebound, with the potential to reach $4,250 [1] - The increase in gold prices is driven by safe-haven inflows and a weakening US dollar [2][4] - Gold has broken through the $4,200 threshold, maintaining its upward momentum [3] Market Dynamics - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China are contributing to investor anxiety, which supports gold demand [4] - A US Treasury official indicated that the government shutdown could result in an economic loss of $15 billion per week [5] - Market expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year are bolstering gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [6][7] Technical Analysis - The short-term technical outlook for gold remains unchanged, with profit-taking observed due to the RSI being in the overbought territory [12] - The next psychological target for gold is $4,250, with a potential breakthrough leading to $4,300 [13] - A rejection at higher levels could trigger a pullback to the support level of $4,062 [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a volatile consolidation. Domestic palm oil futures may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil after a short - term shock or filling the gap. - Due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and government shutdowns, soybean oil futures are in a narrow - range shock adjustment. Before the Spring Festival stocking, domestic demand won't increase significantly, but cost - end support and poor theoretical crushing profits of Brazilian soybeans will support the market [1]. 2.2 Meal - Brazilian new - crop soybean sowing is going smoothly, with sufficient domestic soybean and meal supply. Spot prices are expected to remain weak this year. If no US soybeans are purchased, the M2601 contract has support in the 2900 - 2950 range, and the 1 - 5 positive spread may have opportunities [3]. 2.3 Livestock (Pigs) - Although the pressure on pig prices has eased recently, the supply pressure will continue to be released in the fourth quarter. Spot prices are expected to face pressure until the first half of next year. The trading strategy is to short on rallies and hold LH1 - 5 and LH3 - 7 reverse spreads [6]. 2.4 Sugar - Affected by supply expectations, the raw sugar price remains bearish. The domestic sugar price is expected to remain in a bottom - range shock due to factors such as typhoon impacts on sugarcane growth and a slight recovery in downstream demand [9][10]. 2.5 Corn - The supply of corn is strong while the demand is weak. Although the futures price has rebounded slightly, the price is still expected to be weak in the short term [13]. 2.6 Cotton - The new cotton cost provides some support for the futures price, but the downstream demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to face pressure when rising [17]. 2.7 Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient and in excess, and the demand is weak after the festival. The egg market is expected to decline in a volatile manner in the short term without obvious positive factors [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On October 15, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8520 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8525 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. The basis decreased by 13.55%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 3.34% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On October 15, the spot price in Guangdong was 9280 yuan/ton, down 0.86%. The futures price of P2601 was 9330 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The basis decreased by 144.00%, the import cost decreased by 0.12%, and the import profit increased by 0.91%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On October 15, the spot price in Jiangsu was 10180 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. The futures price of OI601 was down 0.27%. The basis decreased by 1.36%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread increased by 6.85%, and the 2601 spread increased by 1.33%. The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread remained unchanged, and the 2601 spread decreased by 2.27% [1]. 3.2 Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained at 2930 yuan/ton; the futures price of M2601 was 2917 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The basis decreased by 53.57%, the import crushing profit of Argentine soybeans in December decreased by 26.7%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 5.0% [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2440 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2357 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The basis increased by 1.22%, the import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed in November decreased by 8.64%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [3]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed meal 01 - 05 spread increased by 3.51%, the oil - meal ratio of the main contract decreased by 0.37%, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread decreased by 2.00% [3]. 3.3 Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The basis of the main contract increased by 14.95%, the price of the 2511 contract decreased by 0.44%, the price of the 2601 contract decreased by 1.69%, and the 11 - 1 spread increased by 16.75%. The main - contract positions decreased by 7.91%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [6]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, and other regions increased, while those in Henan and Hunan remained unchanged [6]. - **Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume increased by 1.56%, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 2.16%, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 105.30%, and the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 27.25%. The monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 0.10% [6]. 3.4 Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract increased by 0.11%, the price of the 2605 contract increased by 0.02%, the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 1.26%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 18.52%. The main - contract positions increased by 2.61%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.59% [9]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased. The Brazilian in - quota and out - of - quota import sugar prices increased, and the spreads between imported Brazilian sugar and Nanning spot sugar increased [9]. - **Industry Indicators**: The national sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, the industrial inventory increased, and the sugar import volume increased by 160.00% [9]. 3.5 Corn - **Corn**: The Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price remained unchanged, the basis decreased by 21.62%, the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 19.15%, the Shekou bulk grain price increased by 1.30%, the north - south trade profit increased by 30.30%, the import profit increased by 9.31%, and the number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants decreased by 16.00%. The positions increased by 2.39%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [12]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the 2511 contract increased by 0.67%, the Changchun and Weifang spot prices remained unchanged, the basis decreased by 12.80%, the 11 - 3 spread increased by 8.11%, the starch - corn futures spread increased by 2.74%, the Shandong starch profit increased by 36.84%. The positions increased by 0.50%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [13]. 3.6 Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2605 contract increased by 0.08%, the price of the 2601 contract increased by 0.04%, the ICE US cotton main contract increased by 0.63%, and the 5 - 1 spread increased by 9.09%. The main - contract positions increased by 2.27%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.77%, and the valid forecast increased by 84.62% [17]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index decreased, the FC Index decreased slightly, and the spreads between spot and futures contracts decreased [17]. - **Industry Indicators**: Commercial and industrial inventories decreased, the import volume increased by 40.0%, the bonded - area inventory increased by 1.4%, the inventory days of yarn and grey cloth decreased, the cotton outbound shipment volume increased by 22.6%, the textile enterprise processing profit increased by 5.0%, and the retail and export data of the textile and apparel industry changed [17]. 3.7 Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 11 contract increased by 0.11%, the price of the 01 contract decreased by 1.02%, the basis increased by - 52.26%, and the 11 - 01 spread increased by - 9.35% [20]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price increased by 0.76%, the egg - chick price remained unchanged, the culled - hen price decreased by 3.88%, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 11.31%, and the breeding profit was in a loss state [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, and provides short - term price trend forecasts and trading strategies for each [1]. - For soybean meal, it is expected to have a short - term weak consolidation trend, with limited short - term fluctuations due to the support of Sino - US trade tariffs [1][4]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to follow the trend of soybean meal and is short - term bearish [1][6]. - Palm oil is expected to have a short - term high - level oscillating market, and opportunities to go long on dips can be considered [1][8]. - Soybean oil is expected to have a short - term oscillating market, and its upward movement depends on the performance of palm oil [1]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - Canadian trade [1]. - Cotton is expected to have a weak oscillating market in the ICE market, and short - term rebound selling is recommended [1][12]. - Jujube is expected to face pressure after the new fruit is launched, and short - term large fluctuations may occur due to weather speculation. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [1][14]. - Live pigs are expected to have a large - scale bottom - seeking oscillating market. Short - selling on rallies for near - month contracts and holding mid - term reverse spreads are recommended [1][17]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Futures price: The main contract closed at 2917 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.52% from the previous day [2]. - Spot price: The national average price was 3018.86 yuan/ton, down 1.71 yuan or - 0.06% from the previous day [2]. - Inventory: As of October 10, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 1009.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 70.70 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 765.76 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 45.85 million tons [3]. - Market situation: The harvest and listing of US soybeans, the existence of Sino - US negotiation voices, and the slight improvement in Brazilian rainfall lead to a lack of bullish drivers. However, Sino - US trade tariffs provide short - term support [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - Futures price: The main contract closed at 2357 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.38% from the previous day [5]. - Spot price: The national average price was 2524.21 yuan/ton, up 9.47 yuan or 0.38% from the previous day [5]. - Inventory: As of October 10, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 1.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.53 million tons [6]. - Market situation: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a situation where long and short factors are intertwined. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal due to the lack of new drivers [1][6]. Palm Oil - Futures price: The main contract closed at 9322 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or - 0.09% from the previous day [7]. - Spot price: The national average price was 9310 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan or - 0.64% from the previous day [7]. - Inventory: As of October 10, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46 million tons [8]. - Market situation: The price competition of US soybean oil and the decent export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first ten days of this month lead to a situation where long and short factors are intertwined. It is expected to have a high - level oscillating market [1][8]. Cotton - Futures price: The main contract CF2601 closed at 13270 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day [9]. - Spot price: The CCIndex (3218B) was 14674 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan or - 0.55% from the previous day [9]. - Inventory: The domestic cotton commercial inventory increased by 17.46 million tons to 115.54 million tons, lower than the same period last year [11]. - Market situation: The increase in supply from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries, the support from India's MSP import tariff, and the pressure from un - priced buy orders and weak demand lead to a weak oscillating market [1][12]. Jujube - Futures price: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 11105 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.05% from the previous day [13]. - Spot price: The retail cash price remained stable [13]. - Inventory: The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9167 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36 tons, higher than the same period last year [14]. - Market situation: The expected production combined with the carry - over inventory will bring pressure after the new fruit is launched. Short - term large fluctuations may occur due to weather speculation [1][14]. Live Pigs - Futures price: The main contract Ih2511 closed at 11400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or - 0.44% from the previous day [15]. - Spot price: The national average price of live pigs was 11260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 0.09% from the previous day [15]. - Inventory: The national sample - enterprise live - pig inventory was 3839.01 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 56.61 million heads; the national inventory of fertile sows was 4038 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 4 million heads [15]. - Market situation: After the continuous decline of live pigs, the resistance of the breeding side has increased. However, the supply pressure in the future market is still strong, and the reduction of fertile sows benefits the far - month contracts [1][17].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On October 15, the Fed Chair Powell's speech suggesting a potential halt to balance - sheet reduction and not refuting the market's October rate - cut expectation led to a weaker US dollar index, boosting precious metal prices. Gold hit new highs, and silver was supported by high leasing rates. In the short - term, factors like Sino - US trade uncertainty, the ongoing US government shutdown, and a high probability of a Fed rate cut in October will support gold prices. Silver may face adjustment risks if the physical shortage eases. In the long - term, factors such as Fed rate - cut space, global geopolitical uncertainty, US debt issues, and central bank gold purchases will likely push up the long - term center of gold prices [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On October 15, 2025, compared to October 14, London gold spot rose 2.2% to $4197.46/ounce, London silver spot rose 1.1% to $52.44/ounce, COMEX gold rose 2.2% to $4214.90/ounce, CONEX silver rose 3.0% to $51.43/ounce, AU2512 rose 2.3% to 960.34 yuan/gram, AG2512 had 0.0% change at 11533 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 2.4% to 957.30 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) rose 3.8% to 11930 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: From October 14 to 15, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread changed by - 23.4% to - 3.04 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread changed by - 1068.3% to 397 yuan/kilogram, the gold TD - London spread changed by - 75.8% to - 0.79 yuan/gram, the silver TD - London spread changed by - 15.6% to - 1412 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio rose 2.3% to 83.27, the COMEX + London ratio fell 0.7% to 81.95, the AU2602 - 2512 spread changed by - 757.4% to - 18.54 yuan/gram, and the AG2602 - 2512 spread had 0.0% change at 24 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.2 Position Data - From October 13 to 14, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position rose 0.25% to 1021.45 tons, the silver ETF - SLV position fell 0.13% to 15733.09127 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold rose 1.85% to 332808 contracts, the non - commercial short position rose 9.43% to 66059 contracts, the non - commercial net long position rose 0.13% to 266749 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver rose 0.97% to 72318 contracts, the non - commercial short position fell 0.21% to 20042 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position rose 1.43% to 52276 contracts [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On October 15, 2025, compared to October 14, SHFE gold inventory rose 4.04% to 75099 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory fell 3.07% to 1030429 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory fell 0.16% to 39660680 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.88% to 515632550 troy ounces [3]. 3.4 Other Market Data - From October 14 to 15, 2025, the US dollar index fell 0.04% to 99.05, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.22% to 3.48%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.14% to 4.03%, the S&P 500 fell 0.49%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate rose 9.35%, the VIX fell 0.16%, and NYMEX crude oil fell 1.63% [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-10-16 情绪回暖但走势分化，20号胶触底反弹 油脂：或继续震荡，等待进一步信息指引 蛋白粕：市场延续低位震荡，关注中美贸易关系变化 玉米/淀粉：国务院引导积极入市收购提振情绪，盘面反弹 生猪：二育少量入场，猪价低位反弹 天然橡胶：情绪回暖但走势分化，NR明显反弹 合成橡胶：受天胶带动小幅反弹 棉花：棉价低位震荡 白糖：糖价延续震荡偏弱 纸浆：弱势反弹依旧 双胶纸：窄幅震荡 原木：交割面利空，原木偏弱运行 【异动品种】 天然橡㬵观点：情绪回暖但⾛势分化，NR触底反弹 逻辑：昨⽇。天㬵两品种⾛势出现明显分化，NR收涨2%⽽RU仅有0. 3%，深浅价差快速收窄。虽然并没有出现突发因素导致NR突然⾛强，但 从结果上来与我们最近⼏⽇提及的建议关注NR近⽉表现相匹配。因为RU 由于抛储略超预期，前期由注册仓单少提供的偏多预期基本被抵消。相反 NR⽅⾯由于前段时间标㬵进⼝量偏低，叠加仓单数量不多，叠加原料依 旧坚挺，盘⾯可讲的故事也较多。所以我们倾向于认为昨⽇NR的强势表 现可能可以说明短期暂时⻅底，考虑到相较于RU偏强的基本⾯，受到 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold continues to strengthen, with international gold prices surpassing $4,200 per ounce. The Fed Chair hinted at a pause in balance - sheet reduction, trade - war concerns are intensifying, and bets on two interest rate cuts this year are growing stronger. The U.S. government shutdown is ongoing, and the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt situation are deteriorating. Against this backdrop, central banks are continuously increasing their gold holdings, and investors' recognition of gold as a safe - haven and value - storing asset is rising. However, after a rapid rise, there are accumulated profitable positions, so be aware of possible adjustments and increased volatility [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Market**: - For gold futures, the prices of沪金2606 and沪金2512 are 969.60 and 962.08 respectively, with daily increases of 1.86 and 1.74, and increases of 0.19% and 0.18%. Their trading volumes are 6,880 and 420,246, and open interests are 22,325 and 230,686. - For silver futures, the prices of沪银2606 and沪银2512 are 12,201.00 and 12,138.00 respectively, with daily increases of 171.00 and 172.00, and increases of 1.42% and 1.44%. Their trading volumes are 31,945 and 2,033,514, and open interests are 19,602 and 477,807 [2]. - **Spot Market**: - The price of Shanghai Gold T + D has increased by 18.55 to 958.5, with a rise of 1.97%. London gold (in dollars per ounce) has increased by 13.55 to 964.00, with a rise of 1.43%. - The price of Shanghai Silver T + D has increased by 431.00 to 11,961.00, with a rise of 3.74%. London silver (in dollars per ounce) has increased by 1.64 to 53.05, with a rise of 3.19% [2]. - **Inventory**: - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold has increased by 2,916.00 kilograms to 75,099 kilograms. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver has decreased by 32,643.00 kilograms to 1,030,429 kilograms. - COMEX gold inventory has decreased by 375,461.09 to 39,285,219, and COMEX silver inventory has decreased by 2,921,026 to 512,711,524 [2]. - **Related Derivatives and Indexes**: - The dollar index has decreased by 0.38% to 98.6659, the S&P index has increased by 0.40% to 6,671.06, the U.S. Treasury yield has increased by 0.50% to 4.05, and Brent crude oil has increased by 0.01% to 62.47. The U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan has decreased by 0.14% to 7.1301. - The spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF holdings have both increased by 1.00 tons to 44,315 tons. The CFTC speculator net long position in silver has increased by 486 to 33,486, while that in gold has decreased by 1,451 to 32,895 [2]. Macro News - The U.S. side said that whether to impose a 100% tariff on China depends on China's actions. The Chinese Foreign Ministry urged the U.S. to correct its wrong actions and resolve issues through dialogue. China opposes the EU's forced technology - transfer practices. - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that economic activity has changed little recently, with a slight decline in overall consumer spending and stable employment levels. - The U.S. Senate failed to advance the Republican's temporary appropriation bill. The U.S. government may cut over 10,000 federal government jobs during the shutdown. The U.S. Treasury Secretary plans to submit Fed leadership candidates to Trump after Thanksgiving [3]. Fed Policy and Economic Data - Fed Governor Stephen Milan said that due to increased trade tensions, policymakers need to cut interest rates soon. He expects two interest rate cuts this year. - The New York Fed's manufacturing index rose 19.4 points to 10.7 in October, far exceeding market expectations, and the outlook index reached its highest level since the beginning of the year [4].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】当地时间10月15日，美国参议院以51票对44 票的投票结果，再次未能推进共和党的临时拨款法案。据悉， 需要60票才能推进这项将为政府提供资金直至11月底的法案。 美国行政管理和预算局局长沃特表示，在政府停摆期间，特朗 普政府可能会裁减超过1万名联邦政府岗位。评：美国政府停摆 依旧，并且裁员传闻增加了美国政府的动荡，黄金但是目前市 场处于高位，美元指数走弱，或对黄金提供一定上涨动能，但 是谨慎追高。 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 姓名：丛燕飞 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015666 【短期-橡胶】泰泰国原料胶水价格54.1泰铢/公斤，杯胶 价格49.65泰铢/公斤；海南胶水制全乳价格14500元/吨，制浓 乳胶价格15200元/吨；据柬埔寨橡胶总局最新报告显示， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 10 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 中长线上行趋势不变，中美摩擦 助推行情 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 矿端扰动再起，资金关注度快速 上升，中美贸易加剧波动 | 说明： 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：近期国际金价持续攀升，昨日纽约金站上 4200 美元关口，沪金站上 960 元关口。短期中 美贸易摩擦扰动及美国政府持续停摆加速金价上行，金价或持续强于银价，金银比值呈现上行态势。 短期的大幅上涨随之而来的是风险的快速积累，近期黄金日内双向波动明显加剧。短期单边可参考 5 日均线作为短期强弱分水岭 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its third week, with the Senate failing to pass a temporary budget for the ninth time [1] - The latest vote resulted in 51 votes in favor and 44 against, falling short of the 60 votes needed for approval [1] - Key disagreements between the two parties center around healthcare budget provisions, with Democrats insisting on including healthcare-related clauses in the temporary budget [1] Group 2 - Republican Senator Kennedy indicated that the government shutdown is expected to last for an extended period, potentially becoming the longest in history [1] - The longest previous shutdown occurred during Trump's first term, lasting 35 days due to budget disputes over the construction of the U.S.-Mexico border wall [1] - Senate Republicans plan to vote again on the temporary budget on the 16th, aiming to pressure Democrats through repeated voting [2]