豆粕：贸易事件不确定，低位震荡 豆一：震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（10.13-10.17），美豆期价涨势为主，因为中美贸易谈判希望、国内大豆压榨需求较好。从周 K 线角度，10 月 17 日当周，美豆主力 11 月合约周涨幅 1.39%，美豆粕主力 12 月合约周涨幅 1.96%。 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 19 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 上周（10.13-10.17），国内豆粕期价偏弱，豆一期价偏强。豆粕方面，盘面依然交易中美缓和、中 加缓和等。豆一方面，盘面偏强可能因为中美贸易摩擦担忧、国内政策支持预期。东北产区豆价也出现小 幅上涨，具有偏多影响。从周 K 线角度，10 月 17 日当周，豆粕主力 m2601 合约周跌幅 1.85%，豆一主力 a2511 合约周涨幅 2.03%。（上述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华财经） 上周（10.13-10.17），国际大豆市场主要基本面情况：1）美国政府停摆持续，美国农业部相关报告 依然暂停发布，影响不大。美国政府维持停摆状态，美国农业部相 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets, with the export window opening, and the strength analysis is neutral to weak [2] - Zinc ingot inventory accumulation continues, and galvanizing start - up rate rebounds [3] - Domestic supply - side pressure remains high. In October, domestic zinc ingot supply is expected to increase, and the start - up rate will remain high. The traditional peak season in the consumption end is approaching the end, and the zinc price is under downward pressure this week [5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 21,815, with a weekly decline of 2.04%; the closing price of LmeS - zinc3 was 2,942.5, with a weekly decline of 1.41% [6] - In terms of trading volume and open interest changes, the trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc main contract decreased compared with the previous week, while the open interest of LmeS - zinc3 increased [6] - In terms of inventory changes, SHFE zinc warehouse receipts, total inventory, and social inventory all increased, and LME zinc inventory also increased slightly [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished products are at a high level, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has declined [8] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a historical median level [10] 3.2.3 Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of zinc smelting has declined, and the start - up rate of downstream industries is at a historically low level [12] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - Spot premiums have strengthened slightly, and overseas premiums are relatively stable [16][18] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc presents a C - structure [21] 3.3.3 Inventory - This week, inventory continued to accumulate, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, and the total global zinc visible inventory has increased slightly [26][32][35] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [36] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level, import concentrate processing fees continue to rise, and domestic concentrate processing fees have decreased [39] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting output has decreased but is at a historical high, smelter finished product inventory has decreased but is also at a historical high, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [47] 3.4.3 Recycled Zinc Raw Materials - The start - up rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills is provided, along with prices of some recycled zinc - related products and waste steel consumption data [50][51][52] 3.5 Zinc Demand - Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive, downstream monthly start - up rates have rebounded slightly and are mostly at historically low levels, and the real estate market is still at a low level while the power grid shows structural increments [56][58][71] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices are provided, along with the profitability of zinc smelters in some European countries [73][74][75]

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3839.76 points, down 1.95%, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling 3.04% to 12688.94 points [3] - The overall market saw 4781 stocks decline, marking the highest number of declining stocks in nearly a month, with a total trading volume of 1.95 trillion [3][4] - The current market sentiment is characterized by heightened risk aversion, attributed to escalating uncertainties in US-China trade relations, despite the absence of significant negative news [6] Sector Performance - All major sectors declined, but defensive sectors related to dividends, such as banking and agriculture, experienced smaller declines, with the Agricultural Bank of China rising 1.74% to a record high [6] - High-performing sectors earlier in the year, such as power equipment, electronics, and automotive, saw the largest declines, with drops of 4.99%, 4.10%, and 3.74% respectively [6] Policy and Earnings Outlook - The upcoming fourth quarter is expected to bring a series of policy announcements, including the Fourth Plenary Session and the Central Economic Work Conference, which will clarify policy directions for the following year [6] - Investment opportunities may arise from themes such as "de-involution" in new energy and semiconductors, unified markets in consumption and cycles, and marine economy [6] Bond Market - The bond market showed a continued upward trend, with all government bond futures contracts rising, particularly the 30-year contract which closed at 115.87, up 0.74% [12] - The central bank's operations indicate a relatively ample liquidity environment, with a net withdrawal of 244.2 billion from the market, yet overall funding remains sufficient [12] Commodity Market - Precious metals continued to show strength, with gold prices reaching a new high, peaking at 1001 CNY per gram, driven by risk aversion and policy expectations [12][10] - The energy sector faced downward pressure due to rising oil inventories and production levels, with the US EIA reporting an increase of 3.524 million barrels in crude oil inventories [11] Trading Hotspots - Key investment themes include precious metals driven by central bank purchases and anticipated Fed rate cuts, artificial intelligence due to increased capital expenditures by tech giants, and domestic chip production driven by technological breakthroughs [13] - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from RMB appreciation and market style shifts, while brokerage firms may see increased activity due to active trading and potential changes in trading regulations [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The international spot gold price has reached a record high of over $4380 per ounce, driven by increased trade tensions, the US government shutdown, and dovish statements from Fed officials. The value of gold as a hedge has been further enhanced by geopolitical risks and the trend of central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization. The large capital inflow into the Shanghai gold futures contract indicates strong market sentiment [3]. - **Copper**: Demand is suppressing copper price increases, but rising expectations of interest rate cuts may lead to a rebound. The 86,000 yuan per ton level is a key resistance point [15]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, macro factors are the core drivers of aluminum prices. With the expansion of China's core CPI in September and expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the reduction of inventory, the Shanghai aluminum futures may show a slightly upward trend. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and its price is declining. Cast aluminum alloy has strong support due to raw material shortages and policy factors [37][38]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of domestic and overseas zinc markets are different, with the domestic market showing a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Low inventory provides short - term price support, and attention should be paid to the opening of export windows and potential macro - driven factors [63]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: In the nickel industry chain, the quota for nickel ore in 2026 is expected to decrease. The new energy sector is in a peak season, while nickel iron prices are weakening. Stainless steel sales are sluggish after the holiday, but export prospects are positive. Macro factors such as Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations should be monitored [77]. - **Tin**: The tin market has a pattern of tight supply and differentiated demand. Supply is constrained by the delayed resumption of Burmese mines and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, while demand is divided between weak traditional electronics and strong high - end solder demand from AI servers and new energy vehicles. Low inventory supports prices, but high prices are suppressing trading [91]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are decreasing. The demand from downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase, which may support the futures price [106]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, production cuts may increase, and prices may rise slightly, but inventory pressure limits the upside. The polysilicon market is affected by news and has weak fundamentals [117]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Movement**: The international spot gold price has broken through $4380 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold futures contract has the largest capital inflow in the domestic commodity futures market [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: Trade tensions, the US government shutdown, Fed officials' dovish statements, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases are the main factors driving the rise in gold prices [3]. Copper - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai copper futures main contract is 84,390 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.78%. London copper has a daily increase of 0.45% [16]. - **Market Outlook**: Demand restricts price increases, but interest rate cut expectations may lead to a rebound. The 86,000 yuan per ton level is a key resistance point [15]. Aluminum - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai aluminum futures main contract is 20,910 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.31%. Alumina futures main contract price is 2,800 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 0.36% [39]. - **Market Outlook**: Macro factors drive short - term price trends. Aluminum inventory is decreasing, while alumina is in an oversupply situation [37]. Zinc - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai zinc futures main contract is 21,815 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.57%. London zinc has a daily increase of 0.85% [64]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic and overseas zinc markets have different fundamentals, and low inventory provides short - term price support [63]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel futures main contract is 121,160 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0%. The stainless steel futures main contract price is 12,630 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 0% [78]. - **Market Outlook**: The nickel ore quota in 2026 is expected to decrease. The new energy sector is booming, while nickel iron prices are weakening. Stainless steel sales are slow, but export prospects are positive [77]. Tin - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai tin futures main contract is 280,750 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.21%. London tin has a daily increase of 1.01% [92]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin market has a pattern of tight supply and differentiated demand, and low inventory supports prices [91]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Data**: The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 75,700 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 760 yuan [107]. - **Market Outlook**: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are decreasing, which may support the futures price [106]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Data**: The latest price of industrial silicon futures main contract is 8,430 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 2.03%. Polysilicon and other product prices are also provided in the report [117]. - **Market Outlook**: As the dry season approaches, industrial silicon production cuts may increase, and prices may rise slightly. The polysilicon market is affected by news and has weak fundamentals [117].

Key Points - The gold market experienced significant volatility on October 17, driven by multiple factors including banking sector risks, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and ongoing U.S. government shutdown [1][2] - The surge in gold prices was primarily fueled by concerns over loan issues at two U.S. regional banks, leading to a market capitalization loss of over $100 billion for the largest U.S. banks in a single day [1] - The expectation of a potential 75 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by December has increased, making gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset [1] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which could cost the economy up to $15 billion weekly, has further weakened confidence in the dollar and bolstered gold's appeal as a safe haven [1] Volatility Factors - After reaching a historical peak of $4,380 per ounce, profit-taking by some long positions and technical indicators showing overbought conditions led to a sharp decline in gold prices [2] - Risk warnings from the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai Gold Exchange highlighted the overheated market sentiment, contributing to the sell-off [2] Current Trading Strategies - A breakout strategy suggests that if gold prices stabilize above $4,350 per ounce, traders may consider entering long positions with targets set between $4,380 and $4,400 per ounce, with strict stop-loss at $4,320 [3] - A pullback strategy indicates that if gold prices fall to the $4,280-$4,300 per ounce range and find support, traders could consider accumulating long positions, with a stop-loss set below $4,260 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks at the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting significantly impacted global markets, leading to a sharp recovery in the Dow Jones index and a drop in the 2-year Treasury yield to its lowest level since September 2022, with a near certainty of interest rate cuts by the end of October [1][3]. Economic Context - Powell's statement that "there is no risk-free path for policy" reassured the market amid a challenging economic environment characterized by government shutdowns affecting data availability and a softening job market, while inflation remains above target [3][5]. - The government shutdown has delayed critical economic reports, including the September non-farm payrolls and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions [5][7]. Employment Market Insights - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, the highest in a year, indicating a growing difficulty for job seekers despite companies reporting challenges in finding suitable candidates [7][9]. - The non-farm payrolls data showed a disappointing increase of only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below market expectations, with previous months' data also revised downward [9][10]. Inflation Concerns - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.9% year-over-year, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target, primarily driven by tariffs and potential new tariffs under the previous administration [12][13]. - There are concerns about rising service sector inflation amidst weakening job growth, placing the Federal Reserve in a difficult position [13][15]. Federal Reserve's Policy Dilemma - The Federal Reserve's internal discussions reflect a divide on the pace of interest rate cuts, with some members advocating for more aggressive action to support the job market, while others caution against rapid cuts that could reignite inflation [15][17]. - Powell hinted at the potential end of the balance sheet reduction (QT) plan, signaling a shift towards providing liquidity to the market, which was positively received by analysts and led to market reactions [17].

Core Points - The U.S. Senate failed to advance the Republican temporary funding bill with a vote of 51 to 45, requiring 60 votes to proceed [1] - This marks the 10th consecutive vote in the Senate to reject the temporary funding bill since the government shutdown began [1] - The government shutdown is expected to continue at least until next week [1]

Group 1 - COMEX gold prices opened higher on October 17, surpassing $4,360 per ounce, reaching a peak of $4,392 per ounce, marking a new historical high [1] - As of the report, spot gold was priced at $4,357.19 per ounce, reflecting a 0.71% increase from the previous day [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also rose, with brands like Lao Miao and Zhou Sheng Sheng seeing significant daily increases in their gold prices per gram [2][3] Group 2 - The surge in gold trading is partly supported by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, amid uncertainties regarding the U.S. government shutdown and its potential economic impacts [3][4] - Global central banks are actively purchasing gold, and there is a trend of reallocating funds from U.S. Treasury securities to gold among various investors [4] - Bank of America predicts that factors such as the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit and rising debt levels will continue to drive gold prices higher in the coming year [4] Group 3 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice on October 16, urging member units to enhance risk control measures due to recent volatility in international precious metal prices [4] - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, have issued warnings about increased market risks associated with precious metal price fluctuations [5] - China Bank announced an adjustment in the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation products, increasing it from 850 yuan to 950 yuan [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that spot gold prices have surged, breaking through $4,300 per ounce and reaching a new historical high of over $4,370 per ounce [1] - Domestic brands of gold jewelry have also seen prices exceed 1,200 yuan per gram [3] - The current trading surge in gold is partly supported by rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, amidst uncertainties regarding the U.S. government shutdown which may impact the economy [4] Group 2 - A global trend of central banks increasing gold purchases and rising holdings in gold ETFs is contributing to the increase in precious metal prices [5] - There is a noticeable shift of funds from U.S. Treasury securities to gold among global central banks, institutional investors, and individual investors [5] - Factors such as the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit and rising debt levels are expected to continue driving gold prices higher in the coming year, according to Bank of America [5]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 17 日 铝：具备上涨弹性 氧化铝：小幅反弹 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 资料来源：SMM、同花顺 ifind、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20975 | ર્સ | -115 | 330 | 620 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21060 | l | l | l | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2796 | 52 | 14 | 177 | 230 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | ୧୧୫୦3 | -16299 | -93920 | -92783 | -51574 ...