过去几周显示，世界经济形势难以预测。 英国央行行长贝利：缓解通胀压力允许降息。 需要坚持"循序渐进、谨慎"的做法。 ...

英国央行行长贝利：通胀压力正在缓解，因此我们今天得以降息。 ...

鲍威尔表示，美联储认为等待并进一步观察的成本相当低，因此他们选择这样做。他指出，在其他经济体 还未对进口商品大规模加征关税的情况下，这些经济体更多面临的是需求疲软和劳动力市场降温的影响， 而无需像美联储那样担忧今年晚些时候可能出现的物价攀升压力。 此外，由于美国经济刚刚经历了一段艰难的高通胀时期，不少美联储官员也认为他们不应冒着先发制人的 降息风险来提振放缓的就业，以免在短期内加剧物价上涨的压力。这种立场已使得美联储与欧洲、加拿大 和英国央行处于了截然不同的政策轨道上。 在最近的美联储议息会议后，美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上多次使用"等待"一词的不同表述，强调美 联储不会急于行动来缓冲特朗普总统关税政策对经济可能造成的冲击。这一表态引发了外界的高度关注。 特朗普曾公开批评鲍威尔行动迟缓，并建议美联储效仿欧洲央行。但一些美联储官员近期已特别强调，他 们担心在经济疲软之前降息可能会在短期内放大物价压力。这种担心在很大程度上正是由特朗普的关税政 策所触发的。 摩根大通的经济学家已将美联储首次降息的时间点调整到了9月份，而高盛则预计美联储将从7月份才会开 始降息。这很可能令美欧间的利差至少在未来几个月进一步放大。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current decline in gold prices is influenced by upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, with market participants expecting rates to remain unchanged at a high probability of 98.1% [3] Market Analysis - As of May 7, gold prices have dropped to $3383.57 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 1.37% from earlier highs [1] - The highest price reached was $3437.49 per ounce, while the lowest was $3359.78 per ounce during the trading session [1] - The recent economic data, including a slowdown in core PCE inflation to 2.6% and strong employment figures, has alleviated some market concerns regarding inflationary pressures [3] Trading Strategy - The market anticipates a potential upward movement in gold prices if the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish stance, suggesting possible rate cuts [3] - Conversely, if the Fed maintains its current rate, it could strengthen the dollar and exert downward pressure on gold prices [3] - Current trading strategies suggest monitoring the price range between $3350 and $3404 for potential high-low trading opportunities, with a focus on support levels at $3350 and $3290 [6]

富格林投资据讯，因美国可能对进口药品征收关税，亚洲买家节后重返黄金市场，现货黄金周二再度大涨近100美 元，最终收涨2.85%，报3431.11美元/盎司；周三亚盘初，黄金日内跌近1%，早盘跌近30美元，下触3400美元/盎 司。 周三最新消息，中方决定同意与美方进行接触，将在访问瑞士期间，与美财长举行会谈。这是自特朗普对中国征 收全面关税以来的首次谈判，并提升人们对两大经济体达成协议的乐观情绪。美财长当地时间周一接受采访时曾 表示，他预期美中贸易谈判未来几周内将出现进展，并指出特朗普对中国祭出的145%关税无法长期维持。 当地时间周一，他还签署关于生物医药研究的命令，希望借机促进美国药品制造业，并宣布将在未来两周内宣布 对医药产品的关税措施。特朗普当地时间周日宣布，他计划对海外制作的电影征收100%的关税，这是他对美国进 口产品的限制性贸易政策首次延伸至娱乐业。这再次点燃投资者对全球贸易战潜在后果得担忧。此外，美国可能 最快于本周公布针对半导体加征关税的细节，市场预估税率可能高达25%-100%，此举或将进一步扰乱全球半导体 供应链，迫使许多半导体厂商寻找替代供应来源或在美国制造。 尽管有迹象表明中美贸易紧 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced fluctuations, with a rebound following gold prices, amid concerns over new U.S. policies on drug imports and tariffs, which have heightened demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, which poses long-term pressure on non-yielding assets like silver [2] - The current silver price is testing a key resistance level of $33.500, with potential upward movement if this level is breached [2] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with geopolitical tensions potentially driving silver prices above $33.500 towards the psychological level of $35.000 [3] - Institutional positioning shows a slight increase in long and short ratios, indicating a balanced market without extreme sentiment [3] Technical Analysis - The Bollinger Bands indicate that silver is currently in an upward channel, with the upper band at $34.715 and the lower band at $29.966 [2] - Key support levels for silver are identified at $32.800 and $32.400, with a potential drop to $31.182 if these levels are breached [3] Trading Strategy - A trading strategy suggests entering long positions around $31.88 with a stop loss at $31.50 and a take profit target between $33.68 and $33.90 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices experienced a significant drop due to easing concerns over international trade tensions following a scheduled meeting between Chinese and U.S. officials [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain interest rates, with a probability of 98.1% for no change, which is a key factor influencing gold prices [3] - Recent economic data, including a slowdown in core PCE inflation to 2.6% and strong employment figures, have alleviated market worries about inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy [3] Group 2 - Gold prices showed a significant upward trend earlier in the week but are now facing a necessary correction after a 200-point increase, with the upcoming interest rate decision expected to influence future movements [5] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3436, while support levels are noted at 3377 and 3350, indicating potential trading strategies based on these price points [5] - The analysis suggests a cautious approach to trading, recommending short positions at current prices with a focus on testing support levels [5]

新华财经北京5月6日电 （王晓伟）美国商务部经济分析局（BEA）数据显示，3月贸易逆差从2月份修 正后的1232亿美元跃升14.0%，达到创纪录的1405亿美元。美国3月贸易逆差扩大至纪录高位，因企业 在加征关税前增加商品进口，这拖累了美国第一季GDP，导致三年来首次出现负增长。 逆差、进出口额上升：截至3月的三个月，平均商品和服务贸易逆差增加141亿美元至1314亿美元；平均 出口额增加40亿美元至2757亿美元；平均进口额增加181亿美元至4071亿美元。 同比变化：与2024年3月结束的三个月相比，平均商品和服务贸易逆差增加632亿美元；平均出口额增加 137亿美元；平均进口额增加769亿美元。 进出口商品和服务细分数据 商品出口：3月商品出口额增加13亿美元至1832亿美元，其中工业用品和材料、天然气、非货币黄金、 汽车及零部件等有不同程度增长，资本货物有所下降。 服务出口：3月服务出口额减少0.9亿美元至95.2亿美元，旅行服务出口下降明显，运输和金融服务有增 有减。 贸易逆差扩大：3月美国商品和服务贸易逆差为1405亿美元，较2月修正后的1232亿美元增加173亿美 元，增幅达14.0%。 进出口 ...

基本面： 周二（5月06日）白银早盘区间震荡行情，窄幅震荡33.11附近，市场持续区间震荡行情，基本面美国服务业增长4月有所回升，而衡量企业支付的材料和服 务价格的指标则飙升至逾两年最高水平，这表明关税导致的通胀压力正在增加。供应管理协会（ISM）周一的调查显示，美国服务业企业担心美国总统特朗 普的关税对价格的影响，以及政府寻求大幅缩减开支导致联邦支出锐减。特朗普反复无常的关税政策加剧了经济的不确定性。在ISM调查中，一些房地产、 租赁和出租公司将关税的实施描述为 "反复无常，令人抓狂"。 ISM称，4月非制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）从3月的50.8上升至51.6。经济学家此前预计，服务业PMI将降至50.2。4月服务业PMI上升的部分原因可能是企 业和家庭为抢在关税实施前进行采购。ISM调查中的新订单指数从3月的50.4升至52.3。尽管在数据公布后，美元指数跌幅略微收窄，但金价守住涨幅，甚至 在尾盘进一步拉升，暗示避险买盘和逢低买盘的支撑比较强劲，投资者需要提防金价的进一步冲高风险。本交易日将出炉美国3月份贸易帐，投资者需要予 以关注，另外，需要继续关注地缘局势和国际贸易局势的相关消息。 预计美联储将在 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on overseas film production has raised global trade war concerns, increasing market uncertainty and driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - The U.S. services sector showed signs of recovery in April, with the non-manufacturing PMI rising from 50.8 in March to 51.6, indicating positive growth [3] - However, the index measuring corporate payment prices surged to its highest level in over two years, driven by tariff impacts, leading to increased inflationary pressures [3] - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's policy decision, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% [3] - Due to the ongoing effects of Trump's tariff policy, market expectations for a rate cut in June have dropped to 37%, with major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Barclays pushing back their rate cut predictions to July [3] Technical Analysis - The gold market exhibited a clear shift in momentum last week, initially experiencing a consolidation phase before a downward trend took hold [5] - A significant bullish reversal occurred on Monday, with gold prices rising sharply and closing with a large bullish candle, indicating a potential shift back to a bullish market [5] - Current technical indicators suggest that if gold can maintain support above the moving averages, an upward trend may continue; otherwise, a new round of adjustments could occur [5] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3353, 3370/3371, and 3386, while support levels are at 3305 and the critical zone of 3270-3260 [7][8]