Core Insights - The article discusses a resurgence of traditional diversified investment strategies centered around index ETFs amidst an unprecedented AI investment boom in 2025, highlighting the strong performance of diversified asset allocation compared to concentrated bets on major tech stocks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In 2025, there is a noticeable rotation in global stock markets from tech stocks to value and cyclical sectors, indicating a shift towards diversified investment strategies that have generated significant excess alpha returns [1][3]. - Major Wall Street institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, predict a continued rotation in 2026 towards traditional value stocks, small caps, and cyclical sectors, suggesting that non-tech stocks may yield better returns than popular AI tech stocks [2][3]. Group 2: Performance of Investment Strategies - A simple stock-bond portfolio achieved double-digit gains in 2025, marking the best year since 2019, while multi-asset quantitative strategies significantly outperformed the S&P 500 index [4]. - Cambria Investments' ETF, which covers a broad range of global stocks, recorded its best annual performance, benefiting from strong gains in international markets outside the U.S. [4][11]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Despite the strong performance of diversified strategies, there is a continued trend of investors moving away from these strategies, with diversified asset funds experiencing net outflows for 13 consecutive quarters [5][9]. - The article notes that while funds are flowing into pure equity and bond funds, the traditional diversified strategies remain out of favor among retail investors [9][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts expect a broader bull market in 2026, with a focus on cyclical stocks benefiting from a "rolling recovery" phase in the U.S. economy, driven by improved corporate earnings and a favorable macroeconomic environment [15][18]. - The anticipated economic policies under the Trump administration are expected to favor commodity investments, suggesting a shift in investment paradigms towards fiscal expansion and de-globalization [20].

我国通常会在重大自然资源的发现和勘探进展中与国际市场价格紧密联系。最近，我国在山东莱州北部的渤海海域宣布发现了亚洲最大的海底金矿，这一消 息引起了广泛关注，尤其是因为全球金融市场的不确定性不断增加，黄金作为避险资产的需求急剧上升，价格也随之大幅飙升。这一发现的时机无疑让人关 注。 目前，我国对这个金矿的公开信息，可能与2026年全球金融体系的不确定性增加有关系。当前，美国国债已经突破了38万亿美元，而美国每年支付的国债利 息已超过1万亿美元，长期下去这种情况很难持续；与此同时，美国股市中的AI泡沫已接近顶点，AI相关股票吸引了超过20万亿美元的资金，而2026年这一 泡沫是否会破裂，谁也无法预测。日本央行决定加息，而日本经济面临高通胀、低增长的困境，2025年可能会出现负增长，且其政府负债率已经超过 230%。这些因素都可能引发国际金融市场的动荡。作为美国的铁杆盟友，欧盟同样面临经济停滞、能源价格上涨和工业企业外迁等问题。全球不确定性的 增加，导致黄金价格在过去一年半时间里已经翻了一番。 此外，这个金矿位于中国胶东半岛近海，距离美日韩军机和军舰频繁巡航的敏感海域并不远。历史上，日本对东海及黄海大陆架的资源高度 ...

Core Viewpoint - Caterpillar Inc. (CAT.US), once dubbed the "AI darling" of the U.S. stock market, has recently faced significant setbacks, highlighting investor skepticism regarding the sustainability of the AI investment frenzy and the potential returns from massive investments in AI data centers [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Caterpillar's stock price has experienced a notable decline, dropping 9.6% over the worst five-day period since April, making it the weakest component of the S&P 500 Machinery Index [1][6]. - Despite the recent downturn, Caterpillar's stock had risen approximately 60% year-to-date, driven by its involvement in the AI power supply chain, particularly through its gas turbine business [6][8]. - The company remains a key player in the construction and mining equipment sector, often viewed as a barometer for global economic health [6]. Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The broader market has seen a rotation away from AI-related stocks, with significant declines in companies like GE Vernova and Vertiv, which are also tied to AI data center infrastructure [7]. - Analysts express concerns that the current AI investment narrative may be nearing its peak, with skepticism growing about the long-term viability of returns from AI investments [5][8]. - High-profile investment firms are increasingly questioning the sustainability of the AI boom, likening it to the internet bubble, and are focusing on identifying the true beneficiaries of AI advancements [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, indicating a shift towards monetary normalization while maintaining a generally accommodative financial environment [2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Bank of Japan's decision to increase the uncollateralized overnight call rate reflects a moderate upward trend in core inflation, aligning with the economic outlook for the second half of the year [2][3]. - Despite the nominal interest rate hike, the central bank expects real interest rates to remain significantly negative, suggesting that the overall financial environment will continue to support economic recovery [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data supports the Bank of Japan's rate hike, with core consumer price index (CPI) rising by 3.0% year-on-year in November, consistent with market expectations and above the central bank's 2% target for the 44th consecutive month [4]. - The labor negotiations in Japan are expected to yield wage increases similar to last year, which saw the largest wage growth in decades, indicating sustained momentum in wage growth [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the interest rate hike, Japanese government bond yields rose significantly, with the 10-year yield reaching 2.22%, surpassing China's yield for the first time in history [3][4]. - The market's reaction to the rate hike has been relatively stable, with concerns about global liquidity shocks being mitigated compared to previous rate hikes [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has established a "slow bull" pattern driven by performance, with expected returns of 15% to 20% for major indices in 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - The target for the CSI 300 index in 2026 is set at 5200 points, while the MSCI China index is projected to reach 100 [1] - Earnings growth is expected to drive market returns, with projected year-on-year growth rates of 13% for the CSI 300 and 15% for the MSCI China index in 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Characteristics - The current A-share market volatility has decreased to nearly half compared to the 2014-2015 period, enhancing its attractiveness as an asset class [2] - The market is increasingly characterized by institutional participation, contrasting with the retail-driven high volatility of previous years [2] Group 3: Corporate Performance - Chinese companies are undergoing a "de-involution" process, allowing them to improve net profit margins and return on equity (ROE) despite slow revenue growth [2] - The expected ROE for Chinese stocks in 2025 is projected to grow by 12%, although the anticipated net profit margin is the lowest in the Asia-Pacific region at 5% [2] Group 4: Sector Insights - The export sector is identified as a core investment theme, with expectations of a relatively loose fiscal and monetary policy in major developed countries in the first half of 2026, which may boost demand for Chinese exports [2] - The food and beverage industry is highlighted as a sector poised for recovery, with current valuations below those of major markets like India, the US, and Japan, and potential for valuation recovery if domestic price indices stabilize [3]

有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 行业 有色金属周报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 | ♡ 위히 | \\ | | --- | --- | | | ウ咲酸缶 | | ப | 片 72 . | | | //\ www.unwu | 有色周报 铜 一、行情回顾与操作建议 本周沪铜主力运行区间在（90840、94500），总持仓为 63.19 万手，较上周 下降 2.3%，盘面价差结构近月价差为-180。现货市场，临近年末持货商抛售叠加， 国内铜现货升水重心下移，周五转为贴水 160。本周铜价高位震荡运行，宏观面 周五日央行如期加息 25BP，将基本利率上调至 0.75%，在此之前内外股 ...

当潮水退去，才知道谁在裸泳。 出品 | 新行情 作者 | 松涛 来源：市场资讯 （来源：新行情） 今年10月，英伟达市值首次突破5万亿美元，规模超过了英、法、德等主要经济体的股市总值，也将市 场对AI算力的乐观情绪推至高潮。 然而高峰过后，形势急转直下。 短短一个多月内，英伟达市值连续经历数次大幅下跌，万亿市值蒸发，再次成为舆论焦点。 英伟达市值的剧烈波动，不仅仅是单只股票的涨跌，更反映了市场情绪的集体转变：资本从狂热追逐逐 渐转为冷静审视。 其中也透露出市场的担忧：天价芯片订单是否依赖脆弱的融资循环？激烈的竞争与国际环境波动，是否 在侵蚀其护城河？就连黄仁勋本人关于"未向OpenAI付款"的澄清，也被市场解读出了别样的信号。 一场关于"AI泡沫"的疑虑，正随着英伟达市值的剧烈波动而扩散。风暴尚未停息，它迫使整个行业在狂 飙突进之后，必须直面那些悬而未决的根本问题。 英伟达市值暴跌 12月18日，英伟达股价报收于170.94美元，当日下跌3.81%，市值在一夜之间蒸发1648亿美元（约合 1.16万亿人民币）。 | 170.940 " | 176.130 昨收 177.720 量比 1.29 | | | -- ...

2025.12. 19 本文字数：652，阅读时长大约1分钟 来源 | 财联社、科创日报 就在全球主流市场近几天为"AI泡沫"忧心忡忡之际，一只默默暴涨两年的印度人工智能妖股，刷新 了全球股民对于炒作的认知。 | RRP SEMICONDUCTOR LIMITED (CIN: L46521MII1960PLC022672) | | --- | | Registred office: A396/397, TTC Industrial Area, Mahape, Thane, Maharashtra, India, 400710 | | Email ID: gdtal2000@gmail.com Website: www.gdtal.com Contact No: 9223400434 | | UN-AUDITED FINANCIAL RESULTS FOR THE OUARTER ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER, 2025 | | | | | | Standalone | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Quarter ended ...

这一叙事迅速传导至资本市场。甲骨文股价从 4 月 21 日的约 122 美元一路上涨，在 9 月初一度冲至 320 美元以上，也让 81 岁的联合创始人埃里森以约 3832 亿美元的身家，短暂超过马斯克，重回世界首 富宝座。几乎在同一时期，主导云计算基建项目的 Clay Magouyrk 被提拔为甲骨文联席 CEO。 美国时间12月中旬，有报道称，甲骨文在美国数据中心项目的主要支持者Blue Owl Capital将不会资助密 歇根州一个价值100亿美元的数据中心。 这被视为百亿项目融资"告吹"，该消息迅速放大并引发市场对AI泡沫的担忧。实际上，自9月初见顶以 来，甲骨文股价已下跌近45%。 作为近两年推动美股牛市的关键因素，AI行业对于明年市场的走向依然至关重要。难道，美国此轮 AI 基建周期已经提前来到了拐点？ 甲骨文的AI故事不香了？ 7 个月前，甲骨文官方账号在社交媒体上发布了一段颇具象征意味的视频。画面中，时任甲骨文云基础 设施负责人 Clay Magouyrk 正带领 OpenAI CEO 山姆·奥特曼（Sam Altman）参观德克萨斯州阿比林 （Abilene）首个"星际之门（Stargate ...

·当前AI热潮虽然具备历史性泡沫的所有特征，但这并不仅仅是简单的"科技股炒作过热"。AI行业的规 模更有可能在继续发展壮大的同时，实现结构性的分化式调整。 2025年第四季度以来，伴随着主要科技股的一系列回调，"AI泡沫论"甚嚣尘上，引起了业界广泛的讨 论。OpenAI首席执行官山姆·阿尔特曼承认，投资者作为一个整体对AI"过度兴奋"。微软联合创始人比 尔·盖茨也将当前的AI热潮类比为二十多年前的互联网泡沫。 几乎所有人都在谈论泡沫的存在，却没有人愿意停止投资。资金继续涌入，估值继续攀升，狂热继续蔓 延。"美股七雄"——苹果、微软、谷歌、亚马逊、Meta、英伟达和特斯拉的合计市值一度占据标普500 指数总市值的三分之一以上。英伟达市值一度达到史无前例的5万亿美元。OpenAI的估值在短短数年间 从数十亿美元跃升至五千亿美元，尽管该公司从未实现盈利，且预计在未来数年内仍将持续亏损。 OpenAI董事长布雷特·泰勒概括了这种矛盾："AI将改变经济，我相信它会像互联网一样在未来创造巨大 的经济价值……但我们同时也在一个泡沫之中，很多人将损失大量金钱。" 一方面，由于ChatGPT等生成式AI工具的普及，我们每个人都 ...