Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3939.81 points, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.92% and 1.16%, respectively [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 1.946 trillion yuan, marking three consecutive days below 2 trillion yuan [1] - The market exhibited a "structural consolidation + general pullback" characteristic, with about 1277 stocks rising and over 4100 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - **Strong Sectors**: - AI applications and e-commerce saw strength due to Alibaba's "Qianwen" launch and expectations for the Sora application, with stocks like Xiaohongshu, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou performing well [1] - The beauty care sector, including companies like Shierjia and Bawei, experienced late-session gains [1] - The semiconductor sector showed localized activity, with Longxun shares hitting the daily limit [1] - **Weak Sectors**: - The coal sector faced significant pressure, with Yunmei Energy and Baotailong hitting the daily limit down [1] - Battery stocks, including Huasheng Lithium and Haike Xinyuan, saw declines exceeding 10% [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector collectively adjusted, with Hainan Mining hitting the daily limit down [1] Global Interest Rate Dynamics - Recent market sentiment shifted from expecting potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024 to a possible delay until mid-2026, driven by internal policy disagreements and concerns over persistent inflation [2][3] - The structural stickiness of U.S. inflation, influenced by high fiscal deficits, tariffs, and labor costs, limits the scope for monetary easing [2][3] - The anticipated delay in rate cuts has led to a decrease in the probability of a December rate cut to below 50%, resulting in an upward shift in long-term interest rate expectations [2][3] Japanese Fiscal Stimulus Impact - Japan's decision to implement a large-scale fiscal stimulus of over 17 trillion yen aims to counteract a 1.8% economic contraction in Q3, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [3][5] - The increase in Japanese government bond yields has implications for global interest rates, as Japan is a major net creditor and significant holder of global bonds [3][5][6] - The rise in yields may trigger a reallocation of funds back to Japan, impacting global risk assets and increasing borrowing costs [3][7] A-Share Market Reaction - The recent pullback in A-shares reflects a localized pricing adjustment to the new consensus of prolonged high interest rates, particularly affecting high-beta sectors like batteries and non-ferrous metals [2][10] - Despite the pullback, there was no significant panic selling, with evidence of structural inflows into the market, indicating a divergence from typical panic-driven sell-offs [11][12] - Net inflows into financing exceeded 7.6 billion yuan on Tuesday, signaling a relative optimism among investors [13][14] Investment Strategy Recommendations - In the current environment of high global interest rates, the focus should be on optimizing portfolio structure rather than short-term price movements [22] - Investors are advised to manage positions carefully, reducing exposure to high-beta and high-valuation stocks while increasing allocations to high cash flow and dividend-paying companies [23][25] - Attention should be given to sectors with defensive attributes and those closely tied to domestic demand and structural upgrades [25][27]

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core View - Copper prices opened high and moved low today, showing a weak intraday oscillation. The FedWatch tool indicates that the expected probability of an interest rate cut in December has dropped significantly, leading to a lack of market confidence and pressure on the market. Fundamentally, the copper ore supply remains tight, but with the increase in scrap copper and the partial resumption of smelters, copper production is on an upward trend. The demand side is transitioning from the peak to the off - season, with some emerging industries providing continuous demand. Before the probability of an interest rate cut changes, copper prices will be weakly adjusted [1]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons, with an expected maintenance impact of 48,000 tons. However, some enterprises that underwent maintenance in October are gradually resuming production. After the copper price rises, the production enthusiasm increases, and output is expected to rise. The recovery of government support for recycled copper rod enterprises in some areas is pending tax payment next week. After the copper price rises, the supply of scrap copper increases, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources. On the demand side, the rise in the copper price center restricts downstream consumption. Traditional industries have a pre - emptive demand due to previous tariffs and national subsidy policies, and the recent trading atmosphere is weak. Except for the power and power battery new energy sectors, downstream demand is poor [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved low, showing a weak intraday oscillation. Spot: The spot premium in East China is 55 yuan/ton, and in South China is 5 yuan/ton. On November 17, 2025, the LME official price was 10,802.5 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 3.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of the latest data on November 17, the spot crude smelting fee (TC) is - 41.82 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.37 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 57,000 tons, an increase of 7,135 tons from the previous period. As of November 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 111,200 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 136,100 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 384,500 short tons, an increase of 1,857 short tons from the previous period [9].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Due to the lack of key economic data during the US government shutdown, Fed officials' remarks dominated market expectations. A dovish voting member turning hawkish dampened the expectation of a December interest rate cut, leading to a collective correction in base metals. The domestic lead, tin, and aluminum led the decline in non - ferrous metals, with a decline of over 1%. Shanghai zinc basically gave back the weekly gains last Friday, opened lower and fluctuated on Monday, with the main contract closing at 22,465 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan or 0.33%. The LME inventory increased by 1,175 tons on the 17th. The supply of domestic zinc concentrate is tight, and the smelting processing fees continue to decline. Although the TC decline squeezes smelting profits, the sulfuric acid price is still rising steadily. SMM estimates that the refined zinc output in November may decline slightly month - on - month. Overall, the market sentiment is cautious as a series of data will be released after the US government resumes operation. LME zinc maintains high - level volatility. Against the background of the realization of increased domestic exports, the supply - demand pattern has improved marginally, and the focus of the fundamentals has shifted to the support of the tight - mine logic on zinc prices. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,300 - 22,800 yuan [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc, the 2511 contract opened at 22,435 yuan/ton, closed at 22,455 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,475 yuan/ton, a low of 22,385 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.13%, and the open interest decreased by 65 to 5,520. The 2512 contract opened at 22,460 yuan/ton, closed at 22,465 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,495 yuan/ton, a low of 22,385 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan or 0.33%, and the open interest decreased by 8,703 to 91,450. The 2601 contract opened at 22,475 yuan/ton, closed at 22,490 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,530 yuan/ton, a low of 22,420 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan or 0.33%, and the open interest decreased by 1,842 to 78,331 [7]. - **Inventory and Market Factors**: On the 17th, LME zinc inventory increased by 1,175 tons, with an increase of 800 tons in Hong Kong, 500 tons in Kaohsiung, and a decrease of 12 tons in Singapore. The Cash - 3M spread was 175.85B. The supply of domestic zinc concentrate is tight, SMM domestic zinc concentrate processing fees dropped 200 to 2,650 yuan/ton, and imported ore TC dropped 4.17 to 98.37 US dollars/ton [7]. 2. Industry News - **Price and Premium Information**: On November 17, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,515 - 22,620 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was between 22,445 - 22,550 yuan/ton. In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at about 22,505 - 22,550 yuan/ton. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded at 22,360 - 22,490 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was mainly traded at 22,350 - 22,440 yuan/ton, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened [8][9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents figures including the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [10][13]

Market Overview - The gold and silver markets have recently experienced extreme volatility, with gold seeing a four-day rally followed by a sudden drop, while silver exhibited even more dramatic fluctuations [1][5] - On November 18, London gold prices briefly fell below the critical $4000 per ounce mark, while silver prices rose above $50 per ounce [1] Driving Factors - The rapid changes in market conditions are attributed to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and tightening dollar liquidity [4] - Market expectations suggest that the Fed may soon transition from balance sheet reduction to expansion, injecting liquidity into the market, which has led to buying at around $4000 per ounce [6] Recent Trends - Gold prices rebounded to over $4200 per ounce before declining, with a cumulative drop of over 3.6% over four trading days [5] - Silver experienced a significant single-day volatility of nearly 7% on November 14, retreating from its high [5] Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. core economic data, including the non-farm payroll report on November 20, is expected to impact gold pricing, as the market awaits further guidance [7] - The current market sentiment is influenced by rising dollar indices and real interest rates, which historically have an inverse relationship with gold prices [7] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December stands at 42.9%, while the likelihood of maintaining current rates is at 57.1% [8] - Disagreements within the Fed regarding inflation concerns have led to a cooling of rate cut expectations [8] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical instability, including ongoing negotiations in the Middle East and Ukraine, adds to the uncertainty in the market, potentially affecting gold prices [8] Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest that the recent price corrections in gold should be viewed as buying opportunities, given the tight supply and high demand for precious metals [11] - Despite the clear bullish logic for gold, current high valuations may increase volatility, prompting a strategy of buying on dips rather than chasing prices [11][12] Long-term Value - Gold's unique position as a non-credit asset and a hedge against credit risk and inflation continues to support its long-term investment value [11] - The structural elevation of gold's valuation is supported by the declining credibility of the dollar and the ongoing geopolitical risks [12]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently testing the 3900-point support level, with expectations of potential declines and strategies for response being discussed [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The expectation for a decrease in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has diminished, which may lead to short-term adjustments in the index [1] - A significant drop in trading volume below 20,000 is noted, suggesting a cautious approach to selecting hot stocks [1] - The upcoming days are anticipated to be emotional turning points in the market cycle, with earlier rebounds indicating smaller cycle levels and later rebounds indicating larger cycle levels [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Despite a weak and fluctuating market, there are still opportunities, particularly in AI applications and Alibaba's concepts, which have exceeded expectations [1] - The technology sector is showing signs of potential profitability, indicating that investment opportunities still exist [1] - There is a possibility of "cross-year" stocks emerging this month, suggesting that investors should remain vigilant for opportunities regardless of market fluctuations [1]

Market Overview - Major stock markets in Europe and the US experienced collective declines on November 17, with significant drops in the Asia-Pacific region on November 18, including a 3.22% drop in the Nikkei 225 index, marking the largest single-day decline since April [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.16% [1] Asset Performance - Safe-haven assets also saw declines, with gold prices dropping below $4,000, currently reported at $4,005 per ounce [1] - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 0.84% and Brent crude down 0.76% [1] - The cryptocurrency market faced significant losses, with Bitcoin dropping below $90,000, Ethereum down over 6%, and Dogecoin down over 4%, resulting in over 180,000 liquidations in the past 24 hours [1] Factors Influencing Market Movements - Concerns regarding Sino-Japanese relations have impacted the Japanese stock market, particularly affecting tourism and consumer sectors. Chinese tourists are projected to contribute ¥1.73 trillion to Japan's economy in 2024, accounting for 21.3% of total foreign tourist spending [3] - The Japanese bond market faced significant sell-offs, with 20-year yields reaching their highest since 1999 at 3.26%, driven by expectations of economic stimulus plans from the Japanese government [6] - Delayed expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have tightened dollar liquidity, negatively impacting Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The U.S. government's crackdown on Southeast Asian fraud markets is also expected to flood the market with Bitcoin [7] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices are declining due to a stronger dollar and the Federal Reserve's unchanged interest rate outlook, which diminishes gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [9][10] - The relationship between actual interest rates and gold prices is highlighted, with the actual rate remaining stable due to the Fed's stance on interest rates [12][13][14] Upcoming Events and Market Sentiment - The market is characterized by high uncertainty, with upcoming employment data and Nvidia's earnings report expected to influence market movements significantly [18][20] - Nvidia's earnings are particularly crucial as it holds substantial weight in major indices, potentially affecting investor sentiment and market direction [26][27]

▲ATFX图 ATFX贵金属：美联储12月降息预期由强转弱，黄金短期强势上涨状态难以延续。上周四至今，黄金日线四连阴，市价从最高4245美元跌至最低 4004美元，距离4000美元一步之遥，今日或将突破该关口。同样受降息预期变化影响，白银已经于昨日跌破50美元整数关口，日线技术形态呈现经 典的双顶结构。 美联储观察FedWatch，一周之前对美联储12月份降息25基点的判断，概率是70%左右。现如今，FedWatch的判断概率降低至40%左右。这期间最重 磅的事件是拨款法案被批准，美国政府结束停摆。虽然主流观点认为，停摆期间对美国宏观经济造成的影响不会因为停摆结束而快速消失，但从美 联储降息预期的变化来看，市场人士的情绪已经由极度悲观转向相对乐观。 本周四美国劳工部劳动统计局将公布9月非农就业报告，这是影响黄金行情的潜在重磅因素。如果非农就业报告表现异常糟糕，意味着美国就业市场 受到特朗普移民政策和政府停摆的双重打击，美联储12月降息的概率将骤然升高，黄金有望触底反弹。 对于非农就业报告中的关键指标新增非农就业人口，市场目前预期乐观。前值为2.2万人，预期值5万人，预期将翻倍。今年5月份以来 ，美国的新增 非 ...

隔夜，美股三大股指全线跳水，截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌1.18%，报46590.24点；标普500指数跌0.92%，报6672.41点；纳斯达克指数跌0.84%，报22708.07 点。 随着周一的走势，标普500指数11月迄今已下跌逾2%，此前该指数已连续六个月上涨。标普500指数目前较历史高点回落逾3%，而科技权重更高的纳指跌 幅更大，较纪录高点回落逾5%。 消息面上，市场对美联储的降息预期正持续降温。 首先，11月17日晚间，美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊表示，美联储在进一步降息时应谨慎行事，以免削弱其抗通胀的努力。他重申，随着利率接近中性水 平，决策者需要在行动上"缓步前行"。 隔夜，现货黄金一度暴跌近2%，最低触及4006.80美元，收盘勉强守在4045美元附近。今日欧市盘中，黄金延续跌势，目前在4033美元附近徘徊。 日本股市大跳水！ 杰斐逊的观点具有一定的风向标意义，因为他的立场通常与美联储主席鲍威尔高度一致。 其次，18日凌晨，美联储理事沃勒重申，美联储应该在12月会议上再次降息，理由是美国劳动力市场疲软以及货币政策在伤害中低收入消费者。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率降至4 ...

Core Insights - International gold and silver prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold nearing the $4000 mark and London spot silver falling below $50 per ounce [1][6] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also been adjusted downward, marking a four-day consecutive decline since the 14th [4] Price Movements - As of the latest report, London gold is down 0.55% at $4014.40 per ounce, while Shanghai gold has decreased by 1.23% to 919.42 yuan per gram, and New York gold has fallen by 1.42% to $4016.5 per ounce [1] - Major domestic brands have reported the following prices: Chow Sang Sang at 1289 yuan per gram (down 16 yuan), Chow Tai Fook at 1288 yuan per gram (down 17 yuan), Lao Miao at 1276 yuan per gram (down 13 yuan from the previous day and down 49 yuan from the high of 1325 yuan), and Lao Feng Xiang at 1285 yuan per gram (down 8 yuan from the previous day and down 40 yuan from the high of 1325 yuan) [4] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is cautious due to diminishing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, contributing to a three-day decline in gold and silver prices [6] - Weak physical demand for gold in the Asian market has further exacerbated the price drop, with the market reacting to inconsistent signals from the Federal Reserve [6] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are facing resistance at previous highs, entering a phase of high-level fluctuations, with market participants closely monitoring economic data for indications of Federal Reserve policy direction [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 17, domestic commodity futures closed with mixed results, with new energy materials leading the gains and precious metals leading the losses. Industrial products showed mixed performance, while most agricultural products declined [1]. - The steel market is currently in a stage dominated by weak reality and supported by costs. Although steel futures prices rose on Monday, there is still downward pressure in the later stage due to factors such as weak real - estate data and insufficient downstream demand [1]. - The decline in basic metals is due to the hawkish statements of some Fed officials and the fall in the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, which led to a weakening of risk appetite [1]. - The international oil price rebounded weakly. The main trading logic in the international crude oil market remains unchanged, with both positive and negative factors coexisting. In the short term, some factors support the oil price [1]. - The USDA November supply - demand report was neutral to bearish for oilseeds. Domestic soybean meal may continue to trade in a range, and the three major oils may continue to show a differentiated trend [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Performance of Different Commodity Categories - **New Energy Materials**: Lithium carbonate hit the daily limit with a 9.00% increase [1]. - **Shipping Futures**: All shipping futures rose, with the container shipping index (European line) up 6.73% [1]. - **Black Series**: All black - series commodities rose, with iron ore up 1.81%. The steel market is in a stage of weak reality and cost support. Although steel futures prices rose on Monday, there is still downward pressure in the later stage [1]. - **Chemicals**: Most chemicals rose, with urea up 0.79% [1]. - **Energy Products**: Most energy products rose, with LPG up 0.78% [1]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals led the losses, with Shanghai silver down 4.08% [1]. - **Basic Metals**: All basic metals declined, with Shanghai aluminum down 1.39% [1]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Most oilseeds and oils declined, with soybeans down 1.23% [1]. - **Non - metallic Building Materials**: All non - metallic building materials declined, with glass down 1.15% [1]. - **Agricultural By - products**: Most agricultural by - products declined, with live pigs down 0.81% [1]. 3.2 Analysis of Specific Commodity Categories 3.2.1 Black Series - The steel market is in a stage of weak reality and cost support. Steel futures prices rose on Monday due to the rebound of raw material prices and the start of environmental inspections in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region. However, in the short term, the expectation of large - scale economic stimulus has cooled, and there is still downward pressure on the steel market due to factors such as weak real - estate data and insufficient downstream demand [1]. 3.2.2 Basic Metals - The decline in basic metals is mainly due to the hawkish statements of some Fed officials and the fall in the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, which led to a weakening of risk appetite and a general softening of the non - ferrous metal market [1]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - The international oil price rebounded weakly. The main trading logic in the international crude oil market remains unchanged, with positive factors including the continuation of US sanctions on oil - producing countries and geopolitical uncertainties, and negative factors including OPEC+'s stance on increasing production and weak global economic demand. In the short term, factors such as the possible end of the US government shutdown and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict support the oil price [1]. 3.2.4 Oilseeds and Oils - The USDA November supply - demand report was neutral to bearish for oilseeds. The domestic soybean meal market is under the pressure of weak fundamentals and the support of US soybean costs, and may continue to trade in a range. The three major oils showed a differentiated trend, with palm oil rebounding. Although the Indonesian biodiesel policy boosted palm oil prices, the decline in export demand limited its increase [1].