Group 1 - There is a significant divergence in economic outlook between Western and Eastern investors, influenced by factors such as Trump's tariff policy, geopolitical risks, and currency devaluation threats [1][3] - American retail investors are experiencing a wave of profit-taking, shifting from aggressive gold purchases to large-scale selling, reflecting a stark contrast in sentiment compared to Asian investors [3][5] - In Asia, there is a surge in demand for gold, with the World Gold Council reporting a 3% increase in demand for gold bars and coins in the Asia-Pacific region in Q1 2025, particularly driven by a 12% increase in China and over 30% growth in countries like South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia [5][6] Group 2 - Concerns over the impact of Trump's tariffs initially triggered a strong rebound in gold demand in Asia, with local currency devaluation fears further driving gold purchases [6] - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $4,000 for gold next year, while Morgan Stanley predicts gold will reach $3,800 by the end of this year; in contrast, Citigroup forecasts a drop below $3,000 next year [8] - The sentiment among American retail investors has shifted, as they now perceive that tariff policies may not be as detrimental as previously thought, leading to a reduction in gold holdings and a preference for risk assets [8]

基本面： 周一（6月30日）亚盘时段，现货黄金下探刷新一个月低点至3247美元附近后反弹回升，目前交投于3278美元附近。上周五金价大幅下跌2%，触及近一个月 低点，收报3274.37美元/盎司，周线跌幅高达2.8%，创下连续两周周线收跌的记录。美股上周五延续涨势，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数创下纪录收盘新 高，贸易协议希望提振投资者的风险偏好，经济数据帮助巩固了对美联储将降息的预期。在美国总统特朗普因加拿大对科技公司征收数字税而叫停与加拿大 的贸易谈判后，股市缩减涨幅。即便如此，美国三大股指周线均上涨。 上周四，中美就加快向美国出口稀土达成贸易协议，这一消息被市场视为积极信号，显著提振了全球股市表现。美国华尔街股市延续涨势，标普500指数和 纳斯达克指数双双创下纪录收盘新高。投资者对贸易紧张局势缓解的乐观情绪推动了风险偏好的上升，削弱了黄金作为传统避险资产的吸引力。黄金价格因 此承压，上周五单日下跌2%，反映了市场对风险资产的追逐。 美国总统特朗普表示，7月9日的贸易谈判截止日期并非固定不变，并暗示可能提前或延后。这一表态为市场注入了更多的不确定性。尽管美国财政部长贝森 特乐观表示，特朗普政府有望在9月1日 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the third week of June, international gold prices experienced the largest weekly decline of the year, dropping 2.8% to around $2,280 per ounce, indicating a significant restructuring of the pricing logic for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and easing geopolitical risks [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar index regained support amid adjustments in interest rate expectations, becoming a key factor suppressing gold prices. Futures indicate that traders have pushed back the expected timing of the Fed's first rate cut from September to November, with the steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve pushing the dollar index above 106 [3]. - The substantial decrease in geopolitical risks accelerated profit-taking among gold bulls, particularly after a temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, leading to a noticeable contraction in market demand for safe-haven assets [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Changes - The World Gold Council reported a 12% year-on-year decline in global gold jewelry demand in Q2, with weaker-than-expected seasonal purchases in the Indian market. Although central bank gold purchases remained high, China's gold reserve increase slowed to 21 tons in April-May, down from an average of 35 tons per month in Q1 [7]. - The marginal changes in supply and demand dynamics have reinforced the momentum for price adjustments, with institutions beginning to revise gold valuation models. Credit Suisse lowered its year-end gold price forecast from $2,500 to $2,350, citing rising real interest rates that will compress gold premium space [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Short - term bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Weak rebound [2] - Soda ash: Range - bound rebound [2] - Caustic soda: Range - bound rebound [2] - Methanol: Short - term bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously long [2] - Asphalt: Weak [2] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Crude oil: Oil prices return to fundamental pricing. With the consumption peak season and increasing supply, oil prices are in a consolidation phase. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, prices are weakly oscillating. [1][4] - LPG: Geopolitical tensions ease, the cost side declines, and LPG is under pressure. [1][5] - L: Transaction slows down, inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches eases, the cost side of crude oil weakens, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds. [1][9] - PP: Warehouse receipts decrease, the parking ratio rises, the cost side of crude oil and methanol falls, and it is advisable to go short on rebounds. [1][12] - PVC: Calcium carbide prices rise, social inventory increases, factory inventory decreases, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds. [1][15] - PX: Domestic and foreign PX device loads are operating at a high level, and there are expectations of both supply and demand increases. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices. [1][17] - PTA/PR: Recently, there are many maintenance devices. Later, with the resumption of production and new capacity addition, supply pressure is expected to increase. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short at high prices. [1][20] - Ethylene glycol: The device load increases, the arrival volume is expected to rise, demand is expected to weaken, and it is recommended to look for high - level short - selling opportunities. [1][23] - Glass: Supported by domestic macro - policies, the supply side slightly decreases, and the price has a weak rebound. [2][26] - Soda ash: The weekly operating rate and production decline, and there is a range - bound rebound, but high supply and inventory limit the upside. [2][29] - Caustic soda: There is an expectation of inventory reduction through maintenance, and there is a weak rebound at a low level. [2][32] - Methanol: The port has a high basis, but there is a negative feedback on MTO demand. It is short - term bullish. [2][33] - Urea: The supply pressure is still large, but there are expectations for agricultural demand peak season and exports. It is recommended to be cautiously long. [2] - Asphalt: Geopolitical tensions ease, the cost side of crude oil falls, and it is recommended to go short with a light position. [2] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude oil - **Market review**: On June 27, international oil prices were weakly oscillating. WTI rose 0.43%, Brent rose 0.16%, and SC fell 0.63%. [3] - **Basic logic**: After the US participated in the Israel - Iran conflict on June 23, geopolitical risks eased, and oil prices returned to fundamental pricing. OPEC+ is rumored to increase production by 415,000 barrels per day in August. In terms of supply, Guyana's oil production increased from 611,000 barrels per day in April to 667,000 barrels per day in May. In terms of demand, the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 is 1.29 million barrels per day, lower than 1.3 million barrels per day in May. In terms of inventory, as of the week ending June 20, US crude oil inventory decreased by 5.8 million barrels, strategic crude oil reserve increased by 200,000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory decreased by 4.1 million barrels. [4] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is an oversupply of crude oil, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, with the decline of geopolitical risks, oil prices return to supply - demand fundamental pricing, and it is recommended to go short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of [490 - 510]. [4] LPG - **Market review**: On June 27, the PG main contract closed at 4,256 yuan/ton, down 0.21% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged. [5] - **Basic logic**: Recently, geopolitical risks have declined, the cost side of oil prices has adjusted after squeezing out geopolitical premiums, and LPG has oscillated following the cost side. The PDH device profit decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the alkylation device profit increased by 25 yuan/ton. The supply of LPG increased, and the demand of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil increased. The refinery inventory and port inventory increased. [6] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, after the release of geopolitical risks, from the perspective of supply and demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to go short with a light position or buy put options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4,170 - 4,300]. [7] L - **Market review**: On June 27, the prices of L contracts increased to varying degrees, and the main contract position increased by 2.0%. The spot prices of LL and HD decreased slightly, and the import and production profits changed. The social inventory of PE decreased significantly. [9] - **Basic logic**: With the easing of the situation in the Middle East, the international crude oil price has fallen, and the cost support for polyethylene has weakened. Some previously maintained devices have restarted, and the supply is expected to increase. It is currently the off - season for demand, and the price support is limited. [9] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and coal and the progress of new capacity addition. [10] PP - **Market review**: On June 27, the prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract position decreased by 1.0%. The spot prices of PP were mostly stable, and the production and import profits changed. The enterprise and trade inventory of PP decreased. [12] - **Basic logic**: The decline in cost has dampened market sentiment, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The supply side has increased device maintenance, but in the off - season, downstream factories mostly purchase on demand, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated. [12] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and coal and the progress of new capacity addition. [13] PVC - **Market review**: The PVC market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, with the spot supply - demand fundamentals being poor, and the market center remains weak. [15] - **Basic logic**: Calcium carbide prices have risen, social inventory has increased, and factory inventory has decreased. Some device maintenance is expected to end this week, and new maintenance is planned at the end of the month, with production expected to decline. It is the domestic off - season for demand, but exports still have support. There are plans to put into production three sets of devices in the future, and the supply side is under pressure. [15] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure level at integer points. V is expected to be in the range of [4,850 - 5,000]. [15] PX - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,145 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,752 (+30) yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread was 206 (+8) yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. [16] - **Basic logic**: PX profits have continued to improve, and domestic and foreign device loads are operating at a high level. The demand side is expected to improve with the resumption of PTA device production and new capacity addition. The inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years. [17] - **Strategy recommendation**: PX is expected to be in the range of [6,760 - 6,950]. [18] PTA - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5,025 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,778 (+8) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 month spread was 172 (-2) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 247 (-8) yuan/ton. [19] - **Basic logic**: Recently, there are many PTA maintenance devices. Later, with the resumption of production and new capacity addition, supply pressure is expected to increase. Downstream polyester production reduction and terminal weaving operating load continue to decline. Inventory is continuously decreasing, processing fees are high, and the basis is strong. [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: TA is expected to be in the range of [4,780 - 4,910]. [21] Ethylene glycol - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,340 (-20) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,271 (-22) yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 month spread was -43 (-9) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 69 (+2) yuan/ton. [22] - **Basic logic**: Recently, the device load has increased, and although the arrival volume is currently low, it is expected to rise. The demand side is expected to weaken, and the inventory is decreasing but the expectation is narrowing. [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: EG is expected to be in the range of [4,220 - 4,310]. [24] Glass - **Market review**: The spot market price quotes are stable, the price has a weak rebound, the basis narrows, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [25] - **Basic logic**: Supported by domestic macro - policies, the market risk preference has recovered. The glass supply has increased and decreased simultaneously this week, and the overall production remains at a low - level fluctuation. The coal - based production still has profits, and it is difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. The fuel price has increased, which has a certain boost to the glass price. [26] - **Strategy recommendation**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1,010 - 1,030], with the 5 - day moving average providing weak support. [26] Soda ash - **Market review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been raised, the price has stabilized, the main contract basis has narrowed, the number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the number of forecasts has increased. [28] - **Basic logic**: Recently, some soda ash devices have reduced their loads, and the overall supply has slightly decreased. However, the industry's operating rate is still at a high level, and the pressure of oversupply in the later period remains. The terminal consumption of soda ash is mediocre, and the glass price is consolidating at a low level, providing general support to the upstream. The manufacturer's inventory continues to accumulate. [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1,185 - 1,220], with a range - bound rebound. [29] Caustic soda - **Market review**: The spot price of caustic soda remains stable, the price has a weak rebound at a low level, the basis has weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [31] - **Basic logic**: On the supply side, due to good chlor - alkali profits, most upstream devices maintain high - load production, and there is an expectation of new capacity addition from June to July. On the demand side, the downstream alumina production has slightly declined, and non - aluminum demand is still weak. The cost support has shifted downwards, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda enterprises has increased. [32] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the weak rebound driven by inventory reduction through maintenance. [32] Methanol - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,638 (+19) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,393 (-24) yuan/ton. The East China basis was 245 (+43) yuan/ton, the port basis was 427 (+79) yuan/ton, the MA9 - 1 month spread was -26 (-10) yuan/ton, and the China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit increased to 56 (-4) US dollars/ton. [33] - **Basic logic**: The overall operating load of methanol has increased, and the arrival volume in July may be lower than expected. The demand side has shown negative feedback, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The port basis is high, and there are still geopolitical military conflict risks. [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is short - term bullish. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 09 contract and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract. MA is expected to be in the range of [2,380 - 2,460]. [2] Urea - **Basic logic**: Recently, the urea maintenance intensity has increased, and the daily production has decreased briefly. However, in early July, the device is expected to resume production, and the supply pressure remains large. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural demand peak season is approaching. The fertilizer export growth rate is relatively fast, and there is still cost support. [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to be cautiously long and pay attention to short - selling opportunities. UR is expected to be in the range of [1,710 - 1,760]. [2] Asphalt - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, the cost side of crude oil has fallen significantly, the supply has increased, and the inventory has accumulated. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south". [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short with a light position. BU is expected to be in the range of [3,500 - 3,600]. [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market reached a historical high last week, while energy futures prices declined due to easing tensions in the Middle East [1] - Investors are showing increased optimism in the short term, as the premiums for put options are decreasing, but long-term sentiment remains cautious with little change in market preferences [1][2] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) long-term contracts are still at elevated levels, indicating ongoing concerns about the economic impact of tariffs [1] Group 2 - There are signs of investors buying VIX options, with the VVIX index dropping below 90, a level not seen since July of the previous year [2] - The oil market has not fully recovered from the Israel-Iran conflict, with Brent crude implied volatility returning to levels seen in early June, indicating no strong bullish or bearish sentiment [2] - A mixed trading strategy involving stocks and oil has been suggested, as geopolitical tensions could lead to rising oil prices while high interest rates may pressure stock prices [2] Group 3 - Hedge funds and large asset managers have significantly reduced their net long positions in Brent crude futures and options, marking the largest decline since early April [5] - In the European gas market, the net short position of trend-following commodity trading advisors (CTAs) increased from 9% to 18%, complicating market operations for traders holding physical assets [5] Group 4 - There is unprecedented interest in crude oil futures spread trading, with open interest in related options reaching a historical high [6] - Traders anticipate a potential reversal from short-term supply tightness to oversupply due to increased output from OPEC and other producers, alongside uncertain economic prospects [6] Group 5 - A significant decrease in geopolitical risk premium reflects traders' experiences in managing major geopolitical shocks without significant oil supply disruptions, alongside a trend of moving from substantial inventory reductions to increases [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, leading to a decline in oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices dropping by 12.5% and 12.1% respectively, settling at $66.34 and $65.07 per barrel as of June 27, 2025 [3] Group 2 - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran does not address the ongoing nuclear negotiations, with Iran continuing to assess its nuclear program and asserting it will not abandon its nuclear ambitions, which poses significant geopolitical risks [4] - OPEC+ is expected to continue its large-scale production increase plan, with a proposed increase of 411,000 barrels per day, which is three times the original plan, although actual increases may be lower due to some members exceeding their quotas [5] Group 3 - Shell is reportedly in preliminary acquisition talks with BP, which could lead to the largest energy sector merger since the Exxon-Mobil deal in 1999, as BP is seen as a potential acquisition target due to its underperformance and strategic shift back to oil and gas [6]

周度报告-黄金 市场风险偏好回升，黄金承压下挫 | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 黄金：看跌 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 6 | 月 | 29 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★市场综述： 伦敦金跌 2.8%至 3274 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.28%，通胀 预期 2.3%，实际利率降至 1.97%，美元指数跌 1.32%至 97.4，标普 500 指数涨 3.44%，离岸人民币小幅升值，内外价差窄幅波动。 金价回调，一方面是地缘政治风险降温，美国打击伊朗核设施后 加快了伊朗和以色列的停火进程，美国没有朝着深陷战争泥潭的 方向发展，伊朗的回应也非常克制，原油价格基本回吐涨幅，减 少了美国通胀上行风险。一方面是美国经济尚未衰退，美联储维 持按兵不动暂停降息的状态，市场缺乏增量利多，鲍威尔在国会 就半年度货币政策报告作证词，表态鹰派，关税带来的不确定性 和通胀上行风险导致美联储对降息较为谨慎，同时美联储内部的 分歧也在增加，沃勒和鲍曼先后表态支持最快 ...

➢ 汽油价差收窄，烯烃价差扩大。截至 6 月 27 日，1）炼油：NYMEX 汽油和 取暖油期货结算价和 WTI 期货结算价差分别为 21.39/28.60 美元/桶，周环比变 化-7.79%/-8.67%。2）化工：乙烯/丙烯/甲苯和石脑油价差为 281/231/160 美 元/吨，较上周变化+50.10%/+97.03%/+86.04%；FDY/POY/DTY 价差为 1544/1344/2519 元/吨，较上周变化+14.55%/+18.12%/+6.61%。 ➢ 投资建议：我们推荐以下两条主线：1）油价有底，石油企业业绩确定性高， 叠加高分红特点，估值有望提升，建议关注抗风险能力强且资源量优势强的中国 石油、产量持续增长且桶油成本低的中国海油、高分红一体化公司中国石化；2） 国内鼓励油气增储上产，建议关注产量处于成长期的中曼石油、新天然气。 石化周报 以伊官宣停火，原油暂时回归基本面定价 2025 年 06 月 29 日 ➢ 以伊官宣停火，原油暂时回归基本面定价。6 月 23 日，特朗普在社交媒体 平台上表示，以色列和伊朗将于 24 日 0 时起停火，6 月 24 日，伊朗最高国家安 全委员会声明，宣 ...

Core Viewpoint - European political figures are advocating for the repatriation of gold reserves stored in the United States, particularly from Germany and Italy, due to increasing geopolitical risks and concerns over the reliability of U.S. economic policies [1][5][11]. Group 1: Gold Reserves and Value - Germany holds 3,352 tons of gold and Italy has 2,452 tons, with over one-third of their gold stored in the New York Federal Reserve, totaling a value exceeding $245 billion [3][5]. - The call for repatriation is driven by the desire to secure national assets amidst rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East [5][11]. Group 2: Geopolitical Concerns - The recent volatility in the Middle East has heightened the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, prompting European nations to reconsider their gold storage strategies [5][11]. - Concerns over U.S. economic policy, particularly influenced by former President Trump's criticisms of the Federal Reserve, have led to increased anxiety regarding the stability of U.S. financial governance [7][9]. Group 3: Trust Issues and Historical Context - Historical reasons for storing gold in the U.S. stem from Cold War fears, but current geopolitical dynamics suggest that the necessity for such arrangements may be diminishing [11][12]. - There is a growing sentiment among Europeans that U.S. actions, particularly under Trump's administration, are undermining their interests, leading to a gradual erosion of trust [11][12]. Group 4: Future Implications - Despite the desire for repatriation, significant progress is unlikely in the short term due to the complexities of transatlantic relations and the ongoing political landscape [12]. - Many European leaders still view the New York Federal Reserve as a reliable storage partner, indicating a cautious approach to any immediate changes in gold storage policies [12].

Group 1 - Recent geopolitical turmoil has minimal impact on U.S. stock returns, with historical data showing no significant effect on the S&P 500 index's 6-month performance during periods of heightened geopolitical risk [1][2] - The industrial sector tends to perform well following spikes in geopolitical risk, outperforming the S&P 500 index over two-thirds of the time, with a median excess return of +220 basis points [2] - Conversely, the energy sector often lags behind the S&P 500 index during the same periods, underperforming over 75% of the time, with a median relative return of -940 basis points [2] Group 2 - The analysis is based on the Caldera-Rakovich Geopolitical Risk Index (GPRXGRPR), which has been tracking geopolitical risks since 1985, identifying significant events that may impact market performance [5] - The study highlights that while geopolitical risks can lead to increased volatility, the overall impact on risk assets may remain weak unless conflicts escalate significantly [2]