Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The economic situation in China shows mixed signals. In May, investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, and exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. With the approach of the Politburo meeting in July, there is a possibility of further strengthening of growth - stabilizing policies. In the US, economic data such as retail sales, manufacturing PMI, and ADP employment are weak, increasing the possibility of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The progress of international trade negotiations among various countries is complex, and the "Big Beautiful" bill's passage in the US House of Representatives needs attention. Macro - inflation trading is heating up, and sectors such as non - ferrous metals, gold, and black metals are worthy of attention [1][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, in May, investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure. Only consumption showed resilience. The third - batch of consumer goods replacement funds will be released in July, and the 800 billion yuan "Two - Major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued. In June, China's official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all increased slightly, but the manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. The central bank's net investment in the open market on June 26 reached 305.8 billion yuan, and attention should be paid to the possibility of further strengthening of growth - stabilizing policies in the July Politburo meeting [1]. International Trade Situation - The deadline for the US to suspend tariffs is approaching. Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on multiple countries. The EU is willing to accept the US "benchmark national tax" but seeks industry tax exemptions and quotas. The EU trade negotiation representative will go to the US for talks. The UK - US trade agreement has come into effect, and Canada has cancelled the digital service tax. The India - US trade negotiation is deadlocked. The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5, and the harmonized CPI increased to 2% [2]. US Economic Data and Policy - The US Senate passed the tax - reform "Big Beautiful" bill, and the House of Representatives will vote on it. In May, US retail sales decreased by 0.9% month - on - month. The June ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, and the ADP employment decreased by 33,000. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on the Fed's at least two interest - rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Fed plans to relax key bank capital regulations, and stable - coin legislation may be introduced in mid - July [3]. Macro - inflation Trading - From the 2018 tariff review, tariff - adding events first lead to a decline in trading demand and then an increase in inflation trading. Recently, with the increasing expectation of the US "Big Beautiful" bill's passage and the approaching of important domestic meetings, macro - inflation trading has heated up again. Non - ferrous metal sectors with supply constraints and gold are key areas of concern, and the black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations. In the energy sector, the EU will extend sanctions against Russia, and attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6 [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and gold at low prices [5]. Important News - The National Development and Reform Commission has arranged over 300 billion yuan for the third - batch of "Two - Major" construction projects in 2025. Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on Japan. Powell said that without Trump's tariff plan, the Fed would adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. The US House of Representatives will vote on the Trump tax - legislation draft on July 2. US economic data such as manufacturing PMI and ADP employment are weak. Iran has suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Israel has agreed to the conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire in Gaza. US API crude oil inventory increased by 680,000 barrels last week [7].

Group 1 - HSBC Global Research indicates that the upcoming tariffs on products exported from Asia to the US may lead to a decline in shipment volumes in the coming months [1] - Companies are likely to suppress investments amid uncertainty due to the tariffs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could cause oil prices to surge [1] - Asian countries, except for Japan where policy normalization remains a goal, are expected to further cut interest rates with the help of a weakening US dollar [1] Group 2 - There is a focus on whether Asian consumers can support economic growth amidst external adverse factors [1] - There remains hope that household consumption can offset some of the economic weakness [1]

瑞银：特朗普对越南的20%关税处于预期范围的低端 金十数据7月3日讯，瑞银经济学家William Deng在一份研究报告中说，美国对越南商品征收的20%关税 处于预期范围的低端。越南允许美国商品免税进入该国的决定"在很大程度上是意料之中的"，因为美国 产品在技术和能源等领域的更多准入应该有利于越南的经济增长。该贸易协议的细节对于确定对越南的 经济影响至关重要，尤其是对转运货物的影响，转运货物将面临40%的关税。今后一个关键的观察点 是，是否有进一步向美国和国际资本开放金融市场的细节。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that due to tariffs leading to increased inflation, the US dollar is expected to rise in the coming months, contrary to its recent downward trend [1][6] - Chris Turner from ING predicts that the dollar may temporarily escape its decline starting in August, as trade tariffs will accelerate consumer price growth, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates [1][6] - The euro is expected to briefly retreat to the range of 1.13 to 1.15 against the dollar, while the dollar to yen exchange rate is projected to return to the range of 145 to 150, indicating a decline of about 4% for both currencies [1][6] Group 2 - The market anticipates at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, each by 25 basis points, with the first cut expected in September [6] - Turner forecasts that the US inflation rate will rise from 2.4% in May to approximately 4% by August or September, with a median forecast of 3.1% for the third quarter and 3.3% for the last three months of the year [6] - The dollar index has fallen over 9% since 2025, reflecting increased bearish bets on the dollar's future performance [6] Group 3 - The labor market is identified as a key factor influencing the dollar's outlook, with a low unemployment rate suggesting a peak in bearish sentiment towards the dollar [7] - If the labor market begins to deteriorate, market sentiment may shift towards a more negative outlook for the dollar [7]

日本央行审议委员高田创：鉴于关税可能导致美国经济放缓，需密切关注美国与日本货币政策立场分歧 可能带来的风险，这可能引发市场高波动性，尤其是在外汇市场。 ...

Group 1: Trade Agreement - The United States has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on all goods exported from Vietnam to the U.S. and a 40% tariff on transshipped goods [4] - The agreement allows the U.S. to fully access the Vietnamese market with zero tariffs on U.S. exports [4] Group 2: Stock Market Overview - Major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.9%, driven by technology stocks, while the Dow Jones fell slightly by 0.02% [2] - Centene, a health insurance company, saw a significant drop of 40%, marking its largest decline in history, after it withdrew its 2025 earnings forecast due to lower-than-expected revenues in several states [2][4] Group 3: Employment Data - The ADP National Employment Report indicated a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector for June, significantly below the expected increase of 98,000 jobs [3] - Employers announced 47,999 layoffs in June, approximately half of May's figures, attributed to broad economic pressures and some related to tariffs [3] Group 4: Market Reactions - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.29%, while the 2-year yield increased to 3.80%, reflecting market reactions to employment data and trade agreements [3] - The focus is shifting to the upcoming government non-farm payroll report, with expectations of a slowdown in job growth to 110,000 and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, which includes a 20% tariff on all goods exported to the U.S. from Vietnam, higher than the current 10% baseline tariff but lower than the previously planned 46% "reciprocal tariff" [1][2] - Vietnam will also face a 40% tariff on goods that are transshipped through Vietnam to the U.S. from other countries [1] - The agreement allows Vietnam to open its market to U.S. products with zero tariffs, particularly benefiting U.S. SUVs and large engine vehicles [1] Group 2 - Following the announcement of the trade agreement, stocks of major apparel and footwear brands that source products from Vietnam saw significant gains, indicating reduced uncertainty in the apparel industry [2][4] - The S&P 500 index reached a new intraday high, reflecting positive market sentiment following the trade news [6] - Vietnam is set to purchase $8 billion worth of Boeing aircraft as part of the trade agreement, contributing to a rise in Boeing's stock price [9]

据越南国家媒体报道，越南领导人与美国总统特朗普就关税问题进行了电话会谈。 ...

Group 1 - The podcast "Pacific Polarity" features Kurt Tong discussing the evolution of U.S. foreign policy in Asia, particularly regarding tariffs and trade agreements [1][2] - Kurt Tong predicts that the U.S. will engage in multiple bilateral trade agreements this year, as the desire to maintain high tariffs has diminished due to public discontent and inflation concerns [2][5] - The U.S. remains a major source of foreign direct investment and technology, but there is a political contradiction regarding overseas investments by American companies [4][5] Group 2 - There is a growing political focus on the need for more domestic manufacturing in the U.S., especially in traditional industries, as voters in key regions are affected by the decline of manufacturing jobs [5][6] - The perception that companies are "exporting jobs" overseas creates a political dilemma, as there is a desire to keep manufacturing in the U.S. despite potential cost implications [5][6] - The current political environment is pushing for a reevaluation of trade and investment policies, influenced by protectionist sentiments and the desire to bring jobs back to America [5][6]

特朗普宣布，越南将对美国出口支付20%的关税，将对任何转口贸易支付40%的关税。越南市场对美国全面开放，越南将对美国商品实施零关税。#行情 耐克瞬间抹除超过3%的涨幅并短暂转跌。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普：与越南达成贸易协议，详细信息将在稍后公布。 ...