当地时间7月3日公布的美国6月新增非农就业和失业率均超预期强劲，显示美国劳动力市场仍有韧性， 但前一日公布的有"小非农"之称的美国ADP就业人数则"爆冷转负"减少3.3万人，录得2023年3月以来的 最大降幅，使得市场对美联储降息预期再度出现摇摆。 对于两份天差地别的美国就业报告，接受新华财经采访的分析师多数认为，美国就业市场结构正逐步恶 化，政府部门占新增非农就业人数一半，私人部门就业人数较上个月减少了6.3万，劳动力市场整体趋 弱。但6月非农就业数据可以让美联储进一步观察夏季关税对通胀的影响，预计美联储将在9月的议息会 议上再度降息。 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园认为，两者巨大的差异背后主要有两方面原因，一是，ADP就业调查只能覆 盖约17%的就业岗位，且样本中有79%是大中型企业；而非农就业调查可以覆盖80%左右的就业岗位。 二是，关税对大中型企业的影响更大，对小企业的影响要小很多，原因在于小企业通常很少参与国际贸 易。实际上，ADP与非农就业的背离幅度从3月之后开始加深，这也与关税升级的时间相一致。 美联储降息预期反复摇摆 近期美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼均表示支持7月降息后，市场对美联储降息时点提前至7月的押注 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the articles is that the release of the U.S. non-farm employment data for June significantly impacted the gold market, leading to a sharp decline in gold prices due to stronger-than-expected employment figures and a decrease in the unemployment rate [1][2] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an addition of 147,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, indicating a resilient labor market [1] - Following the data release, the gold price dropped nearly 1%, falling from around $3,350 to approximately $3,310, while COMEX gold futures also experienced a decline of 0.68% [1] Group 2 - The reaction in the interest rate futures market was pronounced, with the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in July rising from 76.7% to 93.3%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut plummeted from 23.3% to 6.7% [2] - The COMEX gold futures positioning data revealed that large institutional investors had begun to reduce their long positions before the non-farm data was released, with a total reduction of over 6,000 contracts [3] - This reduction in long positions reflects a shift in market sentiment, as strong non-farm data diminished expectations for rapid rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, decreasing the relative attractiveness of non-yielding gold [3]

Employment Data Summary - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000[2] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2%[2] - Labor force participation rate was 62.3%, slightly below the expected and previous 62.4%[2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3% and previous 0.4%[2] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. stock markets rose, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 0.8%, 1.0%, and 0.8% respectively[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.3 basis points to 4.34%[2] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.4% to 97.1, while spot gold prices fell by 0.9% to $3326.1 per ounce[2] Fed Rate Expectations - The probability of a rate cut in July dropped from 25% to 0% after the non-farm data release[2] - The probability of a September rate cut decreased from 100% to approximately 73%[2] - The expected number of rate cuts for the year was revised down from 2.6 to 2.1[2] ADP vs Non-Farm Data - The ADP report showed a loss of 33,000 jobs in June, significantly below the expected gain of 95,000[3] - The divergence between ADP and non-farm data is attributed to differences in statistical coverage and the impact of tariffs[3] - Non-farm data is considered more reliable as it covers approximately 80% of employment positions compared to ADP's 17%[3] Economic Outlook - The strong non-farm data suggests resilience in the U.S. economy, supporting previous assessments[4] - The report indicates that if tariffs do not escalate further, a soft landing for the economy remains likely[4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance given manageable economic downturn risks and rising inflation concerns[4]

年轻人就业市场的喜好总是瞬息万变，考公上岸或做大厂牛马固然是人中龙凤，兼职或摆摊也算得上是时髦的潮流。但对搞钱的需求和对 自由的向往就像天枰的两端一样，没有孰轻孰重只有都想兼顾，不想内卷不想做牛马的他们正在迈向"日结大神"之路。 而最著名的日结工团体代表，正是每个向上年轻人避之不及的"三和大神"。 2018年NHK的纪录片《三和人才市场：中国日结1500日元的年轻人》报道了"三和大神"，那些蹲守在劳务市场里的日结工，每天清晨寻找 当天的工作，抱着两块钱的大水，吃着五块钱的盒饭。 纪录片截图（图源网络） 七年时间过去，曾经的三和人才市场早已改建成了奋斗者广场。"日结工"这一赛道也迎来了自己的00后高学历大军。公开数据显示，截至 2025年，中国灵活就业人员已2.8亿人，日结工数量也已高达4000万人。 曾经与消极色彩浓烈的"三和大神"强关联的日结工作，如今正被重塑——越来越多高学历人群涌入，越来越多新奇的日结工种，日积月累 的日结工做下来，也轻松超过应届毕业生的市场工资。 不想被雇佣关系束缚的新一代"三和大神"，正在努力突围。 前电商设计师已经做了五年日结 "不要插队，不要推搡，队尾在后面。"穿过熙熙攘攘的人群 ...

Group 1 - Silver TD is currently trading above 8890 yuan/kg, with a recent price of 8885 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.21% increase [1][4] - The highest price reached today was 8930 yuan/kg, while the lowest was 8849 yuan/kg, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1][4] - Resistance levels for silver TD are identified between 8956-8966 yuan/kg, with support levels at 8626-8636 yuan/kg [4] Group 2 - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%, close to historical lows, showcasing economic resilience [3] - The employment figures suggest that disruptions from inflation concerns and potential economic downturns have been less severe than expected [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 93.3%, with a 6.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut [3]

2025.07. 04 本文字数：1134，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 一财资讯 ①华泰证券：6月非农再超预期，7月降息概率回落 华泰证券表示，6月新增非农数据再超预期，美联储7月降息概率进一步下降，但考虑到关税、移民放缓 对三季度新增就业的拖累，维持联储9月-12月两次预防式降息的判断。6月新增非农超预期、失业率超预 期下行或受到多个因素干扰，未改变就业市场放缓的趋势：6月天气偏热叠加罢工拖累消退，对新增非农 提振约在3-4万人左右；5-6月美国劳动力规模下降75.5万人、劳动参与率合计下行0.3pp，背后或是由 于驱逐移民"压低"就业均衡增长率（即失业率不会上行的新增就业水平）。往前看，伴随移民放缓等对美 国经济特别是需求端滞后影响进一步显现，加之前瞻指标NFIB企业招聘意愿显示6月后新增非农走弱风险 上升，三季度就业或有所走弱，故维持联储9月-12月两次预防式降息的判断。 ②中信证券：预计美联储将在9月的议息会议上再度降息 中信证券研报表示，2025年6月美国新增非农就业人数超预期，失业率低于预期。不过，本份非农报告实 则显示美国就业市场继续走弱。依旧认为美国就业市场"缓冲垫"有限，就业市场继续走弱失 ...

报 告 正 文 新增非农上升，但由政府支撑。 6 月新增非农就业人数略升至 14.7 万人。分行业来看，本月政府贡献了一半的新增就业，而私营部门新增就业从 5 月的 13.7 万人大幅放缓至 7.4 万人。政府方面，新增就业源于州和地方的教育岗位，而联邦政府继续裁员。私营部门方面，本月服务业新增就业仅录得 6.8 万 人，较上月大幅减少 7.3 万人，与 6 月新增 ADP 就业转负相互映证。 私营部门就业走弱。 具体行业来看， 6 月新增就业约一半来自政府部门，并且主要为州和地方的教育岗位，联邦政府继续裁员。服务业就业大幅降温， 其中教育保健、休闲酒店和金融活动新增就业下降最多，较上月分别下降 3.2 万人、 9000 人和 7000 人。此外，制造业就业仍受关税政策压制，继续下 降 7000 人。 失业率下降，但更多人退出劳动力市场 。 6 月失业率小幅下降 0.1 个百分点至 4.1% ，不过， 6 月劳动参与率录得 62.3% ，较上月下降 0.1 个百 分点，永久退出劳动力市场的人数增加。从结构来看，本月失业人数虽减少 22.2 万人，但就业人数仅增加 9.3 万人，劳动力市场趋弱。此外， 25- ...

菲律宾央行：将通过确保货币政策有利于可持续经济增长和就业来维护物价稳定。 ...

123456789:;<2025-07-04 !"#$%&'()*+,-.$%/0 ——!"#$%&'(1 !"#$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'() *+,-./01121/34 5) !"#$% 7 月 3 日，美国劳工部公布数据显示，美国 6 月非农就业人口增加 14.7 万人，预期 11 万人，前值由 13.9 万人修正为 14.4 万人； 6 月失业率为 4.1%，低于预期的 4.3%和上个 月的 4.2%。 &'"( ■ 6 !"#$%&'7 !()*+,-(. 招聘和空缺：招聘需求趋缓，职位空缺回升。 1）截止 2025 年 6 月，招聘计划月均小 幅回落至 3191 万人，较 5 月均值回落近 5500 人，而在 2021 年时为 12.7 万人（2019 年 时为 10.4万人）。2）截止 2025年 6月，修正后的非政府部门职位空缺数升至 693.6万， 但相比较 2022 年 1000 万以上的高点持续放缓（其中制造业缺口降至 41.4 万人）。 非农就业：新增就业总量回落，失业率有所回落。 1 ...

Market Performance - The US stock market experienced strong performance on July 3, with all three major indices rising. The S&P 500 index increased by 51.94 points, or 0.83%, closing at 6279.36 points. The Nasdaq Composite index climbed 207.97 points, or 1.02%, ending at 20601.10 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 344.11 points, or 0.77%, closing at 44828.53 points. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices set new closing records, marking the S&P 500's seventh record close of the year and the Nasdaq's fourth record close of the year. Due to the public holiday, the US stock market closed early with relatively light trading volume [1]. Technology Sector - The technology sector was the main driver of the market's rise, with several leading tech stocks recording significant gains. Nvidia's stock price rose by 1.3%, reaching a historic high with a market capitalization of $3.89 trillion. The company briefly surpassed the $3.9 trillion market cap threshold, coming close to Apple's record for the highest global market capitalization. Amazon's stock increased by 1.59%, Microsoft by 1.58%, and Meta Platforms by 0.76%. Apple saw a 0.52% increase, while Alphabet rose by 0.5%. Tesla was an exception in the tech sector, closing down by 0.1% [3]. - Nvidia's strong performance was supported by multiple factors. OpenAI recently announced it would not adopt Google's TPU chips on a large scale and would continue to rely on Nvidia's GPUs and AMD's AI accelerators for its model training and inference work. OpenAI's reasoning was that these two chip manufacturers' products are "performance-validated" and have "existing supply agreements." This statement sent a positive signal to the market, indicating that Nvidia and AMD will remain core suppliers for OpenAI, potentially limiting Google's growth in the AI hardware market share [3]. Employment Data - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June non-farm payrolls exceeded market expectations, providing significant support for the stock market. In June, non-farm employment increased by 147,000 jobs, far surpassing analysts' expectations of 110,000, representing a 33% increase. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and increased by 3.7% year-over-year, indicating a moderate wage growth trend that helps alleviate inflationary pressures [4]. - Employment growth showed structural characteristics, with government sector employment increasing by 73,000 jobs, primarily driven by state and local education positions. Healthcare added 39,000 jobs, and social assistance increased by 19,000 jobs. The federal government saw a reduction of 7,000 jobs due to layoffs. Additionally, employment data for the previous two months was revised upward, with April's figures adjusted from 147,000 to 158,000 and May's from 139,000 to 144,000, totaling an upward revision of 16,000 jobs [4]. - The strong employment data impacted expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Before the data release, traders estimated a 25% probability of a rate cut in July. Following the report, market expectations for a short-term rate cut quickly diminished. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicated that the likelihood of a July rate cut fell to single digits, and the expectation for a 25 basis point cut in September decreased from 74% a week prior to 68% [4].