Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant internal debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation and the potential for interest rate cuts in the coming months [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The Federal Reserve is divided on whether the new costs from tariffs justify maintaining high interest rates, with some officials concerned about inflation expectations [1][5]. - Recent changes, including a reduction in some extreme tariff increases and an extended negotiation period with multiple countries, have altered the Fed's outlook on rate cuts [4][5]. - There has been no significant increase in consumer prices related to tariffs yet, although many expect to see price rises in upcoming June and July data [5][6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Strategy - The internal division within the Fed presents a critical test regarding the inflationary nature of tariffs and how to manage costs if predictions are incorrect [6]. - Fed Chair Powell's recent comments suggest a tactical flexibility, indicating that potential rate cuts are a continuation of a process paused due to tariff risks [7][8]. - Powell's stance reflects a middle ground, acknowledging the possibility of less severe inflation than previously thought, which may open the door for rate cuts based on labor market conditions or improved inflation data [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent FOMC meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate decisions, primarily influenced by differing opinions on the impact of tariffs on inflation [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decisions - A majority of officials lean towards a potential interest rate cut later this year, but there is a notable faction that believes current inflation levels are still far from the 2% target, which does not justify an immediate rate cut [3]. - The FOMC has maintained the interest rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, with 10 out of 19 officials predicting two rate cuts within the year, while 7 believe there will be no cuts until 2025 [3]. Economic Data and Risks - Current economic data has not provided sufficient signals for action, with ongoing risks related to inflation and a weak labor market [5]. - There is a lack of consensus on the impact of tariffs, with opinions ranging from minimal effects to concerns about long-term implications [5]. Market Expectations - Market expectations indicate a likelihood of rate cuts in September and December, as investors await key economic indicators such as CPI and unemployment rates [7]. - The Federal Reserve is also considering enhancing policy communication strategies to clarify its economic forecasts and analyses [7]. Overall Sentiment - The prevailing sentiment among Federal Reserve officials is one of caution, emphasizing patience over aggressive action in response to economic data [8].

2025 年 7 月 10 日 固定收益 核心 CPI 持续回升， "反内卷"提振再通胀预期 ——2025 年 6 月通胀数据点评 固收点评 6 月份，CPI 同比回升 0.1%，增速由跌转涨，较上月提升 0.2 个百分点， 略好于市场预期。CPI 延续修复，特别是核心 CPI 增速持续回升，显示内需 仍在稳步修复中。 6 月份，PPI 同比回落 3.6%，降幅超市场预期的 3.2%，较上月回落 0.3 个百分点。PPI 增速自 2025 年 2 月份以来持续回落，相对低迷。在此背景 下，7 月 1 日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议释放了加速"反内卷"的信 号。"反内卷"或将作为推动再通胀的重要手段，成为未来一段时间经济工 作的重点。 钟 山（分析师） zhongshan01@cctgsc.com.cn 登记编号：S0280525060002 相关报告 《核心通胀保持平稳，贸易出口继续扩 张》2025-06-10 《应对新一轮关税冲击，逆周期政策组合 拳正当时》2025-04-11 风险提示：对等关税演化存在较大不确定性；国内宏观经济政策面临不确 定性；经济主体预期变化。 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 -1- 证 ...

今日周四(7月10日)欧市盘中，现货白银震荡上涨，截至发稿报36.57美元/盎司，涨幅0.55%，今日银价 开盘于36.34美元/盎司，最高上探至36.71美元/盎司，最低触及36.27美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 鉴于特朗普对汽车征收高额关税，日本汽车制造商正以创纪录的幅度削减出口到美国的产品价格，以牺 牲利润换取市场竞争力。根据日本央行周四发布的企业商品价格报告，6月份运往北美的车辆出口价格 指数以合同货币为基础同比下跌19.4%，创自2016年有记录以来的最大降幅。 【白银走势分析】 当前白银已经突破上方阻力位36.50美元，由此判断银价可能会进一步上涨；下方关键支撑位于36.10美 元附近（日内低点），若跌破可能测试更低区间底部。市场对美联储本周会议释放降息信号的预期升 温，但主流观点认为7月按兵不动概率较高，这可能限制银价短期涨幅 。 美联储6月政策会议纪要显示，官员们对利率前景存在分歧，金价随之走高。市场分析师Linh Tran表 示，如果通胀数据继续降温，美联储9月份降息的可能性将变得更加明显，这可能会打压美元，并为金 价进一步上涨铺平道路。与此同时，贸易紧张局势继续给全球经济增长前景蒙上阴影，预 ...

隔夜，现货黄金在触及近两周低点3382.61后强势反弹，收报3313.38美元，展现出强劲的回升动能。今日欧市盘中，黄金延续涨势，目前在3324美元附近 徘徊。 这意味着，美联储内部对通胀预期、利率前景的分歧日益显现。 机构分析指出，美联储6月会议纪要反映出对未来通胀路径的激烈讨论，对价格走势的不确定性显著升温。 美联储内部分歧明显！ 隔夜，美国三大股指全线收涨，截至收盘，道指涨0.49%，报44458.3点；标普500指数涨0.61%，报6263.26点；纳指涨0.94%，报20611.34点，创历史新 高。 消息面上，美联储6月会议纪要公布，经济前景不确定性居高不下。 北京时间7月10日凌晨2点，美联储发布了今年6月的会议纪要，其中显示，美联储官员一致同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间。参会 官员们一致认为，尽管净出口波动影响了数据，但近期指标表明美国经济活动继续稳步扩张。失业率保持在低位，劳动力市场状况依然稳健，通胀率仍然 略高。经济前景的不确定性有所减弱但仍然居高不下。 由于关税政策在经济中的传导路径及贸易谈判的不同结果，美联储官员们对其通胀影响持不同观点。 部分参会官员认为，关 ...

Group 1 - The recent stock market rebound led by Nvidia has driven Bitcoin prices to briefly surpass $112,000, marking a historical high before a slight retreat [2] - Nvidia became the first company to briefly exceed a market capitalization of $4 trillion, contributing to the rise in tech stocks and the Nasdaq index reaching a new all-time high [2] - Despite the influx of billions into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bitcoin has only increased by 2% over the past month, indicating a period of narrow fluctuations [2] Group 2 - The sustainability of Bitcoin's price increase largely depends on macroeconomic conditions and developments in trade, particularly in light of the upcoming August 1 trade agreement deadline [3] - A potential trade agreement progress and lower inflation data could support a continued rise in Bitcoin prices, as indicated by the recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggesting a favorable environment for interest rate cuts [3] - A weaker dollar has also provided support for Bitcoin, as it is primarily priced in dollars [4]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to maintain the interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations, amid rising uncertainty regarding inflation and global trade [1][2] - The RBNZ's decision reflects increased uncertainty and recent inflation risks, following a significant tightening cycle where rates were cut by 225 basis points since August of the previous year [1] - New Zealand's first-quarter economic growth rate was reported at 0.8%, providing the RBNZ with time to consider future rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Higher export prices and lower interest rates are supporting New Zealand's economic recovery, but global policy uncertainty and tariffs are expected to slow this recovery and reduce inflationary pressures [2] - The market is closely watching upcoming inflation and employment data, with expectations that if mid-term inflation pressures ease, the RBNZ may further lower the official cash rate [2] - Analysts suggest that the focus is shifting to the next RBNZ monetary policy meeting, with the bank adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding future rate cuts [2] Group 3 - The upcoming inflation data on July 21 and employment data on August 5 are expected to significantly impact the pricing of the New Zealand dollar [3] - There are predictions of downside risks for the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar, with a target price potentially approaching 0.590 later in the summer due to rising US inflation expectations and a hawkish repricing by the Federal Reserve [3]

【要闻汇总】 摘要周四（7月10日），周三，美元指数在97.5附近来回震荡，最终收跌0.01%，报97.45。基准的10年 期美债收益率收报4.340%，2年期美债收益率收报3.849%。现货黄金在欧盘一度失守3290美元关口，但 在美盘前加速上行，迅速收复日内大部分失地并转涨，最终收涨0.37%，收报3313.73美元/盎司；现货 白银反弹力度较黄金偏弱，最终收跌1%，报36.37美元/盎司。 【行情回顾】 周四（7月10日），周三，美元指数在97.5附近来回震荡，最终收跌0.01%，报97.45。基准的10年期美 债收益率收报4.340%，2年期美债收益率收报3.849%。现货黄金在欧盘一度失守3290美元关口，但在美 盘前加速上行，迅速收复日内大部分失地并转涨，最终收涨0.37%，收报3313.73美元/盎司；现货白银 反弹力度较黄金偏弱，最终收跌1%，报36.37美元/盎司。 欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩周四表示，"我们正在马不停蹄地努力与美国达成初步协议，以尽可 能降低关税并提供企业所需的稳定性。 美联储 6 月 17 日至 18 日的政策会议纪要显示，大多数政策制定者仍然担心特朗普激进贸易政策 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、 耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 7月9日，国家统计局公布6月通胀数据，CPI同比0.1%、前值-0.1%、预期0%、环比-0.1%；PPI同 比-3.6%、前值-3.3%、预期-3.2%、环比-0.4%。 核心观点：大宗商品、核心商品、服务价格表现分化，令CPI与PPI"一升一降"。 分化一：6月PPI上游煤、钢等大宗商品价格回落，而CPI上游食品、铂金等大宗价格走强。 6月PPI同比 较前月回落0.3pct至-3.6%。其中钢材、水泥、煤炭等供给充足，测算钢、煤价格拖累PPI环比-0.4%；但 国际油价上行对国内油价形成支撑，铜价贡献依然为正，测算油、铜价格支撑PPI环比0.2%。CPI方面，6 月CPI同比0.1%。一是极端天气影响食品供给，食品CPI同比+0.1pct至-0.3%；二是金价保持高位，铂金饰 品价格上涨12.6%，对应包含首饰等其他用品及服务CPI同比上行0.8pct。 分化二：核心商品PPI仍在历史低位，既反映关税对价格的冲击，也与国内中下游产能利用率偏低有关。 6月核心商品PPI同比虽回升0.4pct至-1%，但整体仍在低位 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes suggest that most officials do not see an immediate need for interest rate cuts, but there is a general expectation for potential rate reductions later in the year if inflation pressures from tariffs increase [1][2] - The latest gold T+D price is reported at 769.21 yuan per gram, reflecting a 0.67% increase, indicating a rebound in the gold market during the European trading session [1] - The market is closely watching upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, particularly Christopher Waller, who has previously expressed support for rate cuts, which could influence market expectations for the July policy meeting [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices have rebounded after hitting a low, maintaining a downward trend but supported by a weekly upward trend channel, suggesting potential for further bullish rebounds if prices drop to support levels [3] - Key resistance levels for gold T+D are identified between 775-785 yuan per gram, while support levels are noted between 750-760 yuan per gram, indicating a range for potential price movements [3]