美联储青睐的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出（PCE）指数将在北京时间周五晚8:30发布，预计7月环 比上涨0.3%，与上月持平。若该预测兑现，PCE通胀同比增速将从2.8%升至2.9%，为今年2月以来的 最高水平，同时也将是连续第三个月上升。部分经济学家甚至预测，同比增速可能跃升至3%，这将是 2024年3月以来的最高值。 关税推升的通胀正逐步渗透美国经济，与此同时，美国经济增长势头也有所减弱。 经济学家表示，高通胀可能会限制今年晚些时候进一步降息的空间。部分人士认为，只有两周后发布的 8月CPI通胀数据出现激增，才可能促使美联储在9月16日至17日的会议上重新考虑降息计划。 7月消费支出或达峰值 即将出炉的PCE报告还将包含消费者支出数据，预计7月消费支出环比增长0.5%，高于前一月0.3%的增 幅。 但分析师认为，7月消费支出的增长得益于新车销量激增，后续消费支出增速将有所放缓。 "消费者仍在消费，但变得更加挑剔。"富国银行（Wells Fargo）高级经济学家萨姆·布拉德（Sam Bullard）表示。 "自今年春季起，随着关税成本从港口逐步传导至仓库，再到收银台，通胀已开始抬头。"美国运通银行 （Com ...

Core Insights - Tokyo's inflation rate significantly decreased in August, attributed to government utility subsidies, yet remains above the Bank of Japan's target, prompting continued interest in rate hikes [1][2] - The core CPI in Tokyo, excluding fresh food, rose by 2.5% year-on-year in August, down from 2.9% in July, marking the slowest increase since March [1][3] - A key price indicator, excluding energy prices, increased by 3%, slightly down from 3.1%, with energy prices negatively impacting overall inflation by 0.29 percentage points [2] Economic Indicators - Economists expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its current policy during the upcoming meeting on September 19, despite challenges in accurately assessing inflation due to temporary factors [3] - The Japanese government reinstated utility subsidies from July to September, which is reflected in the August consumer price index data [3] - Rising food prices, particularly rice, which surged by 67.9% year-on-year, have been a significant driver of inflation, although the rate of increase has slowed from 81.8% in July [3] Price Trends - Food prices, excluding fresh products, increased by 7.4%, consistent with July's growth, while service prices rose by 2%, slightly down from 2.1% in the previous month, indicating stable underlying inflation pressures [3]

Group 1 - In August, the yields on 30-year government bonds in Germany and France rose by approximately 15 and 27 basis points, reaching the highest levels since 2011 [1][2] - The global bond market faced renewed pressure due to persistent inflation concerns and increased fiscal spending and refinancing needs, leading to a decline in investor risk appetite for long-term government bonds [1][2] - Japan's long-term bond yields hit a historical high, while the UK long-end bond yields are expected to record the largest monthly increase since December of the previous year [1][2] Group 2 - The French market is under scrutiny as Prime Minister François Bayrou announced a confidence vote regarding debt reduction plans on September 8 [2] - If the political crisis in France worsens, the spread between French and German bond yields could potentially widen to 100 basis points for the first time since 2012 [2] - The yield on French 10-year government bonds reached a five-month high of 3.54% before slightly retreating to 3.49%, while the German 10-year yield increased by 1 basis point to 2.70% [2] Group 3 - A supply peak in the European and US bond markets is anticipated in the coming months, with an expected issuance of over €100 billion (approximately $117 billion) in European government bonds in September and October [4] - Concerns about supply-demand imbalances have intensified due to weak demand observed in recent auctions of Japanese 10-year and US 30-year bonds [4] - Analysts suggest that as supply surges, investors will require higher yields as compensation, which will further increase market volatility [4] Group 4 - Concerns regarding the sustainability of US fiscal policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve are driving up the risk premium on US Treasury bonds [5] - If inflationary pressures do not fully subside and the Federal Reserve relaxes its policies too quickly due to political pressure, it could trigger a new surge in long-term yields and increased volatility in the bond market [5]

Group 1 - The core issue in the real estate market is the continuous decline in both new and second-hand housing prices, with a notable drop of 1% in second-hand housing prices in four first-tier cities in July [1] - The stock market is reaching a 10-year high, leading to capital being drawn away from the real estate market, prompting some individuals to consider selling their homes to invest in stocks [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 4% year-on-year decrease in new housing sales area and a 6.5% drop in sales revenue from January to July [2] Group 2 - In July, the sales area of commercial housing plummeted by 45.8% month-on-month, reaching only 0.57 billion square meters, marking the lowest level for the same period since 2009 [2] - The ongoing sluggish sales in the real estate market could drag down the economy in the second half of the year, with potential impacts on local government finances due to reduced revenue from land sales [2][4] - A 10% drop in commercial housing sales revenue could lead to a 1% decrease in national public budget revenue, with land transfer income potentially falling by 15% the following year [4] Group 3 - Recent tax policies have been introduced to address the revenue gap left by the real estate market, including the taxation of interest income from government bonds and local government bonds starting August 8 [6] - New regulations require individuals to pay personal income tax on capital gains from overseas stock transactions at a rate of 20%, with provisions for tax credits if taxes were paid abroad [8] - The introduction of the "landlord tax" and stricter enforcement of existing tax regulations aim to increase tax compliance among property owners and high-income individuals [10][13] Group 4 - The overarching strategy of the recent tax reforms is to enforce existing tax laws more strictly rather than introducing new taxes, primarily targeting wealthier individuals [13] - To mitigate the risks associated with the real estate sector and alleviate the financial burden on homeowners, a potential solution could involve promoting moderate inflation to gradually reduce debt burdens [15]

2025.08. 29 本文字数：1767，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间29日，美国将公布7月个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数。 随着市场越来越相信美联储将在9月采取行动，投资者也密切关注关税推动的价格反弹会否影响后续 政策宽松的节奏。 核心通胀压力升级 美国个人消费支出数据在3月份触底后，从4月份开始反弹。种种迹象表明，特朗普关税政策正在缓 慢推高商品价格，带动通货膨胀率。 根据第一财经记者汇总华尔街机构的预测，7月份整体PCE价格指数有望环比上升0.3%，同比上升 2.6%，增速与6月持平。 然而， 不包括波动性的食品和能源价格，核心PCE价格指数同比增速可能加快0.1个百分点至 2.9%，创今年2月以来新高。这一指标的上升尤其值得注意，因为这是美联储最关注的通胀数据。 自2020年以来，该数据始终没有达到美联储设定的2%目标，随着关税推高了商店货架上的价格， 它似乎正在朝着错误的方向发展。 机构预计，家具、汽车和其他商品的进口关税在成本端的影响将进一步释放。道琼斯市场称，在关税 和供应链瓶颈的推动下，家具行业面临着4.2%的同比上涨。Ashley Furniture 和Etha ...

2025.08. 29 本文字数：1027，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 投资者也将密切关注周五即将公布的个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数，一旦通胀数据意外走高，可 能打击当前普遍的宽松预期。 其他个股方面，惠普因季度营收超预期大涨4.6%，受益于AI PC需求增长。耐克下跌0.2%，公司计 划裁员不到1%以应对竞争压力。 芯片巨头英伟达财报虽显示季度营收同比大增56%，虽然第二财季营收超过市场预期，但数据中心 收入略低于此前市场预期，股价收跌0.79%。 其他AI相关科技股依然表现亮眼，谷歌母公司Alphabet上涨2.01%，再度刷新收盘和盘中纪录高 点；亚马逊涨1.08%，博通涨近3%；苹果涨0.9%，微软和Meta小幅上涨不超过0.6%；特斯拉下跌 1.04%。 热门中概股涨跌互现，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.14%。其中，向上融科涨近11%，金山云和爱奇 艺涨超6%，理想汽车、蔚来涨近3%；阿特斯太阳能跌逾8%，腾讯音乐和小鹏汽车跌超3%，阿里巴 巴跌逾2%。 经济数据方面，美国商务部公布的今年二季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）经修正后年化增速为 3.3%，高于初值3%，企业投资和净出 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储理事沃勒：关税是一种税，且不会引发通胀。 ...

沃勒说，眼下他预计，"未来三到六个月内还会进一步降息，降息的步伐将取决于即将公布的数据。" 沃勒重申了他的观点，即美联储应该"忽略"关税对通胀的影响，还表示，预计这种关税的影响将是暂时 的。 作为美联储理事，沃勒任内长期拥有FOMC的货币政策会议投票权。在7月末的上次FOMC会议上，沃 勒和另一位投票委员、特朗普提名的美联储负责金融监管副主席鲍曼都投了反对票，因为他们都主张， 在那次会议就降息25个基点，而不是继续保持政策利率不变。 这是1993年以来首次出现如此多的美联储理事对利率决议持异议。有"新美联储通讯社"之称的记者Nick Timiraos当时评论认为，这些反对意见凸显了，在讨论关税对经济和通胀的影响时，联储决策者的共识 正在破裂。 本月稍早被传为下任美联储主席大热人选后，美联储理事沃勒再次呼吁立即降息。 美东时间28日周四，沃勒在公开讲话中表明态度：支持美联储9月16日至17日的下次货币政策会议降息 25个基点，并预计未来三到六个月内还会进一步降息。。 沃勒表示，鉴于美国的潜在通胀率已接近联储的长期通胀目标2%，基于市场的长期通胀预期指标稳 固，劳动力市场出现不利疲软的可能性增加，适当的风险管理意 ...

美当地时间8月28日，美股高开高走，三大指数集体收涨。纳指涨0.53%，标普500指数涨0.32%，道指涨0.16%。其中，道指、标普500指数均再创收盘新 高。 富时A50期指连续夜盘收涨0.32%，报14810点。 8月28日晚间，离岸人民币汇率大涨约300点，一度涨至7.1173元，为2024年11月6日以来首次突破7.12元，值得注意的是，人民币升值的幅度远超美元贬值幅 度。 纽约尾盘，离岸人民币(CNH)兑美元报7.1202元，较周三纽约尾盘涨337点，日内整体交投于7.1551~7.1183元区间。 COMEX黄金期货涨0.83%，报3477.2美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货涨1.36%，报39.24美元/盎司。 国际原油期货结算价小幅上涨。WTI 10月原油期货收涨0.7%，报64.6美元/桶；布伦特10月原油期货收涨0.84%，报68.62美元/桶。 图片来源：视觉中国 大型科技股多数上涨，谷歌涨超2%，亚马逊涨逾1%，苹果、微软、奈飞、Meta、英特尔小幅上涨；特斯拉跌超1%，英伟达小幅下跌。量子计算概念股领 涨，Quantum Computing涨超8%，Rigetti Computing ...

孙长忠（清华大学全球私募股权研究院研究员） 近日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表演讲，认为当前美国劳动力市场的平衡较为 脆弱，就业下行风险上升，而关税对通胀影响"合理的基准假设"是引发物价"一次性"上涨，但最终仍需 时间完全确定并体现出来。"由于政策处于限制性区间，基准前景和不断变化的风险平衡可能需要我们 调整政策立场。"演讲暗示可能恢复降息，以应对就业下行风险和经济增长放缓。随后演讲重点聚焦美 联储第二次货币政策框架审查及其成果，即当日发布的《长期目标和货币政策策略声明》（修订版共识 声明）。演讲备受全球市场关注，迅即引发强烈反应。 来源：21世纪经济报道 以上几个问题的共同之处在于忽视了美国本轮经济周期不同于以往的最大特殊性：此次危机的源头或许 不是美国经济金融内生因素，而是疫情外部冲击。当然这些都是事后分析总结，现实决策很难精准。伴 随着鲍威尔的任期临近结束，美联储未来的政策将如何调整，值得重点观察。 疫情前发达经济体长期处于低通胀、低失业、低利率、低增长的"平庸"状态，美联储、欧央行等央行希 望增加通胀率，对2021年春夏通胀开始上升重视不够，认为是暂时性的，不必干预可以自行消退，于是 ...