Group 1: Gold Market - The Shanghai gold futures price closed at 779.18 CNY per gram on August 25, with a daily increase of 0.46% and a trading volume of 226,253 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 775.72 CNY per gram, indicating a discount of 3.46 CNY compared to the futures price [1] - Current market sentiment is cautious, with gold prices experiencing narrow fluctuations around moving averages, and MACD showing limited movement [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for August recorded an initial value of 53.3, the highest level since May 2022, significantly exceeding the expected 49.5 [2] - The services PMI slightly decreased to 55.4, but the strong recovery in manufacturing pushed the composite PMI to a nine-month high of 55.4 [2] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June, indicating a potential cooling in the job market [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Following remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, market expectations for a rate cut in September have increased to 90% [3] - Powell indicated a shift in risk balance, suggesting a potential adjustment in policy stance due to rising risks in the job market [3] - The market is closely monitoring Powell's upcoming speech for further insights into monetary policy direction [4]

Core Viewpoint - 恒富控股 (00643) has issued a profit warning, expecting a significant increase in net losses for the six months ending June 30, 2025, amounting to approximately 30 million HKD, compared to a loss of about 12 million HKD for the six months ending June 30, 2024 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a substantial net loss of approximately 30 million HKD for the upcoming six-month period [1] - The expected loss for the previous six-month period was around 12 million HKD [1] - Revenue is projected to decline by approximately 70% due to a significant reduction in order volume from major clients in the US and Europe [1] Group 2: Operational Challenges - The decline in revenue is attributed to changes in procurement strategies by clients, alongside broader macroeconomic challenges [1] - The company's gross margin has decreased, influenced by ongoing inflationary pressures on supply chain and subcontractor pricing [1] - There has been a reduction in sales volume of higher-margin children's clothing, contributing to the overall decline in profitability [1] Group 3: Facility and Production Issues - The company faces idle costs associated with its Heshan facility, which will cease handling any further production orders after completing existing ones by May 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is cautiously opening the door to interest rate cuts, but the path ahead is fraught with challenges, as Chairman Powell signals a careful strategy rather than aggressive easing [3][4]. Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - Powell describes the labor market as "peculiar," indicating that the seemingly stable unemployment rate masks a decline in both labor supply and demand [5][6]. - He warns against focusing solely on supply-side constraints, such as immigration policy, which may overlook weakening demand signals that could lead to a rapid deterioration in the job market [5][6]. - A cooling labor market could serve as a mechanism to prevent a vicious cycle of rising wages and prices driven by tariffs [5][6]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements and Inflation Concerns - Despite Powell's efforts to build consensus, there is significant resistance within the Federal Reserve regarding the rationale for rate cuts, with some officials arguing that inflation remains too high [6]. - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack expresses skepticism about the temporary nature of tariff-driven price increases, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem notes that businesses are testing their pricing power [6]. - Concerns about inflation are echoed outside the Fed, with economists warning that Powell's dovish stance may underestimate inflation pressures and overstate labor market risks [6]. Group 3: Cautious Easing Approach - Powell's cautious tone this year contrasts sharply with his assertive stance from the previous year, reflecting a fundamental shift in economic conditions [7]. - The current environment of "high inflation, low interest rates" necessitates a more restrained approach to monetary easing, limiting the potential for significant declines in mortgage rates and borrowing costs [7]. - There are warnings that premature rate cuts could lead to a reversal in policy direction, potentially damaging the Fed's credibility and leading to perceptions of tolerance for inflation above the 2% target [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is cautiously opening the door to interest rate cuts, but the path ahead is fraught with challenges, as indicated by Chairman Powell's recent statements at the Jackson Hole meeting [1][5]. Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - Powell describes the labor market as "peculiar," with a stable unemployment rate masking a decline in both labor supply and demand [2]. - He warns against focusing solely on supply-side constraints, such as immigration policy, which may overlook weakening demand signals that could lead to a rapid deterioration in the job market [2]. - A cooling labor market could help prevent a vicious cycle of rising wages and prices driven by tariffs [2]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements and Inflation Concerns - Despite Powell's efforts to build consensus, there is significant resistance within the Federal Reserve regarding the rationale for rate cuts, with some officials arguing that inflation remains too high [3]. - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack expressed concerns that price pressures are increasing and questioned whether tariff-driven price hikes are merely temporary [3]. - External economists, like Michael Strain, believe Powell's remarks underestimate inflation pressures and overstate the risks of a weakening labor market [3]. Group 3: Cautious Easing Strategy - Powell's cautious tone this year contrasts sharply with his more decisive stance from the previous year, reflecting a fundamental shift in economic conditions [5]. - The current environment of high inflation and lower interest rates necessitates a more restrained approach to monetary easing [5]. - The market should not expect rapid rate cuts unless there is a significant and sudden deterioration in the labor market [6].

Group 1 - The US manufacturing PMI rose significantly to 53.3, indicating a recovery in industrial momentum [1] - Initial jobless claims increased to 235,000, the highest in eight weeks, suggesting a cooling labor market [1] - The mixed economic signals present a dilemma for the Federal Reserve, balancing inflation pressures against employment slowdown risks [1] Group 2 - The probability of a rate cut in September decreased from 82% to 74%, reflecting a slight reduction in market confidence [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee indicated that the September meeting remains "open," highlighting the contradictory economic signals [1] - Boston Fed President Collins suggested that if the labor market continues to face pressure, a rate cut in September remains a reasonable option [1] Group 3 - The GfK consumer confidence index in the UK rose to -17 in August, the highest in a year, benefiting from the Bank of England's rate cuts [1] - Despite the rise in consumer confidence, concerns about persistent inflation, rising employment risks, and fiscal pressures limit the sustainability of this recovery [1] - The GBP/USD exchange rate shows signs of weakness, currently trading below the 20-day moving average [1] Group 4 - The MACD indicator shows a reduction in bearish momentum, while the RSI remains around 45, indicating a neutral to weak price range [2] - A rebound above 1.3450 could test the resistance at 1.3520, while a drop below 1.3380 may accelerate the decline towards 1.3300 [2] - The current rebound in GBP/USD appears to be more of a technical correction rather than driven by fundamental factors [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific trend, such as high - level oscillation, slight decline, waiting for policy guidance, etc. [2][5] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 775.12, up 0.32%. The SPDR Gold ETF's position decreased by 1. [2][7][10] - **Silver**: Forecasted to decline slightly, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 yesterday was 9162, up 1.31%. The SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) decreased by 28. [2][7][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: Waiting for the Fed's interest - rate cut guidance, with narrowing price fluctuations and a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract yesterday was 78,630, down 0.30%. PT Smelting's smelting plant extended its maintenance period due to equipment failure. [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract yesterday was 22240, down 0.11%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1875 tons. [2][15][17] - **Lead**: Supported by inventory reduction, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract yesterday was 16745, up 0.12%. Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 1481 tons. [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Forecasted to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract yesterday was 266,480, down 0.51%. [2][21][24] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20590. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 57.90 million tons, down 0.70 million tons. [2][25][27] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate at a low level, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 119,830. [2][28][34] - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,795. [2][29][34] Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Supported by macro - sentiment premium, with expected increase in import costs. [5] - **Propylene**: With tightening supply - demand and price support. [5] - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long term. [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Mainly in an oscillating trend, with short - term strengthening. [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Weak and in consolidation, with a slight rebound in the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market. [5] - **PTA**: Due to unplanned device shutdown, a long - spread strategy is recommended. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4860, up 1.72%. [2][61][62] - **MEG**: Expected to show a strong trend. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4473, down 0.09%. [2][61][62] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Compressing profit margins. [2] - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market. [2] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The US bio - diesel exemption volume may be lower than expected, leading to an increase in international oil prices. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating and consolidating at a high level. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: Due to the large increase in US soybeans overnight, Dalian soybean meal may rebound. [5] - **Soybean**: Rebounding and oscillating. [5] - **Corn**: Expected to run weakly. [5] - **Sugar**: Oscillating within a range. [5] - **Cotton**: The futures price fluctuates narrowly, waiting for new drivers. [5] - **Egg**: Attention should be paid to the rhythm of culling laying hens. [5] - **Live Pig**: Waiting for the end - of - month spot verification. [5] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. [5] Others - **Iron Ore**: Supported by the fact that the macro - risk preference has not significantly declined. The closing price of the iron - ore futures contract was 772.5, up 0.46%. [2][43][44] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the RB2510 contract was 3,121, down 0.03%. [2][46][47] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the HC2510 contract was 3,375, down 0.44%. [2][47] - **Silicon Iron**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the silicon - iron 2511 contract was 5638. [2][51] - **Manganese Silicon**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the manganese - silicon 2511 contract was 5820. [2][51] - **Coke**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the J2601 contract was 1664, down 0.8%. [2][54] - **Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the JM2601 contract was 1147, down 1.3%. [2][54] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 804.5, down 0.1%. [2][57][58] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is recommended to hold 10 short positions as appropriate. [5] - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level, with limited upward momentum. [5] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating weakly. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range, silver to decline slightly, and copper to await the Fed's interest - rate cut guidance with a narrowing trading range. Zinc is likely to have a weak - side oscillation, while lead's price is supported by inventory reduction. Tin and aluminum are predicted to trade within ranges, and alumina is expected to decline slightly. Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel will operate in a low - level range, and stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality [2]. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Price and Performance**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 775.12 with a daily increase of 0.32%, and the night - session closing price was 776.08 with a night - session decline of 0.01%. Gold T + D closed at 771.66 with a 0.24% increase, and the night - session price was 772.50 with a 0.01% increase. Comex Gold 2510 closed at 3383.50 with a 0.26% decline, and London gold spot closed at 3338.25 with a 0.25% decline. For silver, Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 9162 with a 1.31% increase, and the night - session price was 9233.00 with a 0.81% increase. Silver T + D closed at 9144 with a 1.33% increase, and the night - session price was 9198 with a 0.72% increase. Comex Silver 2510 closed at 38.590 with a 0.55% increase, and London silver spot closed at 38.095 with a 0.51% increase [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Gold 2510 and Comex Gold 2510, as well as Shanghai Silver 2510 and Comex Silver 2510, showed different changes compared to the previous day. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 24,336, and the open interest decreased by 8,259 [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai gold remained at 36,642 kg, while Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) decreased by 65,319. Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 25,144 kg, and Comex silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) increased by 347,707 [5]. - **Spread and Arbitrage Cost**: The spreads and arbitrage costs of gold and silver showed various changes. For instance, the spread between gold T + D and London gold decreased by 2.52, and the spread between silver T + D and London silver increased by 5,089 [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold's trend intensity is 1, and silver's is - 1 [8]. Copper - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 78,630 with a 0.30% decline, and the night - session price was 78,730 with a 0.13% increase. The LME copper 3M electronic - trading price closed at 9,721 with a 0.38% increase [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract increased by 24,847, and the open interest increased by 1,819. The LME copper 3M electronic - trading volume decreased by 718, and the open interest decreased by 2,295 [10]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 275, and LME copper inventory increased by 1,200. The spreads between different copper contracts and the arbitrage costs also changed [10]. - **News**: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, some Fed officials made hawkish remarks. The US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years, and a smelter's maintenance period was extended due to equipment failure. Codelco restarted a smelter, and Glencore applied to include copper projects in Argentina's investment incentive plan. China's refined copper and copper concentrate imports in July had different changes [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper's trend intensity is 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,240 with a 0.11% decline, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - trading price closed at 2,786 with a 0.58% increase [13]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 26,050, and the open interest decreased by 568. The LME zinc trading volume decreased by 1,474, and the open interest increased by 574 [13]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai zinc inventory remained unchanged, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,875. The spreads and import - profit situations also changed [13]. - **News**: The US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years, and the labor - market cooling was more obvious [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc's trend intensity is 0 [15]. Lead - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,745 with a 0.12% increase, and the LME lead 3M electronic - trading price closed at 1,980.5 with a 0.33% increase [16]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 9,828, and the open interest decreased by 2,546. The LME lead trading volume decreased by 1,375, and the open interest decreased by 964 [16]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 1,481, and LME lead inventory decreased by 1,500. The spreads and import - profit situations also changed [16]. - **News**: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, some Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead's trend intensity is 0 [17]. Tin - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 266,480 with a 0.51% decline, and the night - session price was 266,840 with a 0.30% decline. The LME tin 3M electronic - trading price closed at 33,475 with a 0.89% decline [20]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract decreased by 27,750, and the open interest decreased by 633. The LME tin 3M electronic - trading volume decreased by 9, and the open interest increased by 53 [20]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 71, and LME tin inventory increased by 25. The spreads between different tin contracts also changed [20]. - **News**: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, some Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years. The euro - zone business activity reached a 15 - month high, and the US and the EU reached an agreement on the trade - agreement framework [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin's trend intensity is - 1 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,590, and the LME aluminum 3M price closed at 2,593. The Shanghai alumina main - contract price was 3,124, and the cast - aluminum alloy main - contract price was 20,125. Their prices showed different changes compared to previous periods [23]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes and open interests of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, Shanghai alumina, and cast - aluminum alloy contracts had various changes [23]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventories of aluminum, alumina, and related products, as well as the spreads between different contracts, showed different trends [23]. - **News**: A Fed official said that there might be no interest - rate cut in September [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast - aluminum alloy are all 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 119,830, and the stainless - steel main - contract price was 12,795. Their prices showed different changes compared to previous periods [27]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes and open interests of the Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel main contracts had various changes [27]. - **Industry - Chain Data**: The prices and spreads of nickel - related products and stainless - steel products in the industry chain also changed [27]. - **News**: There were issues such as potential nickel - export suspension from Canada, a nickel - iron project in Indonesia entering the trial - production stage, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, and production suspensions in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelters [27][28][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [32].

Market Overview - On August 21, US stock indices collectively declined, with the S&P 500 down 0.4%, the Dow Jones down 0.34%, and the Nasdaq down 0.34%. The S&P 500 experienced a five-day losing streak, while the Nasdaq fell for three consecutive days [1][11]. Federal Reserve Insights - Global attention is focused on the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to deliver a keynote speech. This event is viewed as a critical moment for the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy [2][4]. - On the same day, several Federal Reserve officials, including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and Kansas City Fed President Esther George, expressed cautious signals, emphasizing that monetary policy must rely on data and is not in a hurry to cut rates [5][6]. Economic Indicators - According to S&P Global, driven by stronger demand, the US manufacturing PMI expanded at its fastest pace in over three years, pushing the composite PMI, which includes services, to its highest level of the year in August. This also intensified ongoing inflationary pressures, as companies increasingly passed on rising costs to customers [4]. Walmart Financial Performance - Walmart reported second-quarter revenue of $177.4 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $176.16 billion. However, adjusted earnings per share were $0.68, falling short of the expected $0.74, marking the first time in three years that profits did not meet expectations [14]. - Walmart raised its full-year sales growth forecast to between 3.75% and 4.75%, up from the previous estimate of 3% to 4% [15]. Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.35%, with notable gains in several Chinese stocks. Xpeng Motors surged nearly 12%, while NIO and Tuniu also saw significant increases [15]. - Xpeng Motors reported a total revenue of RMB 18.27 billion for Q2 2025, a 125.3% increase year-over-year, driven by a significant rise in vehicle deliveries, which reached 103,200 units, a 241.6% year-over-year increase [16].

Group 1 - Emerging market currencies have declined for the sixth consecutive day due to strong U.S. manufacturing data and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, which have further pressured expectations for interest rate cuts [1][4] - The focus is shifting to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, where he may reiterate the limited impact of tariffs on inflation while acknowledging a softening labor market, reinforcing market interest rate expectations [4] - The Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President, Loretta Mester, stated that she would not support a rate cut if a decision were needed tomorrow, leading to a decline in the overall performance of emerging market currencies to the lowest level since early August [4] Group 2 - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index saw a slight rebound of 0.1%, ending a two-day decline caused by a drop in U.S. tech stocks, while the bond market showed mixed results [6] - The Hungarian forint led the decline among currencies due to escalating rumors regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while the Brazilian real and Mexican peso remained strong against the dollar [6] - In the geopolitical arena, former President Trump indicated support for Ukraine to launch more counterattacks against Russia, suggesting a potential shift in U.S. policy, which could impact risk assets [7]

Core Viewpoint - Due to tariff policies leading to increased retail prices during the holiday season, consumer demand for discounted clothing and accessories has risen, resulting in stronger-than-expected quarterly profits and a robust annual forecast from Ross Stores (ROST.US), which significantly boosted its stock price in after-hours trading [1][2]. Financial Performance - Ross Stores reported a 2% increase in same-store sales for the second quarter, with sales for the three months ending August 2 reaching $5.53 billion, a 2% year-over-year increase, although slightly below the market expectation of $5.57 billion [1]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were $1.56, exceeding market expectations by $0.02 [1]. - The company has revised its full-year EPS forecast to a range of $6.08 to $6.21, which includes an estimated tariff impact of $0.22 to $0.25 per share, while the market expectation stands at $6.10 [1]. Future Outlook - Ross Stores anticipates same-store sales growth of 2% to 3% over the next two quarters, with the upper end of this range representing the largest increase since the beginning of the year [2]. - The company projects third-quarter EPS between $1.31 and $1.37, below the market expectation of $1.47, but expects fourth-quarter EPS to be between $1.74 and $1.81, surpassing the market forecast of $1.69 [1][2]. Market Context - The tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration have led to increased prices for imported goods, benefiting discount retailers as consumers become more budget-conscious amid rising inflation [2]. - Other retailers, such as TJX Companies (TJX.US) and Home Depot (HD.US), have also reported positive performance, indicating a broader trend of consumers seeking value [2]. Stock Performance - As of Thursday's close, Ross Stores' stock has declined by 4.4% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500 index, which has risen by 8.3% during the same period [3].