中东地区因为历史上频繁的冲突，素有"火药桶"之称。对于这一地区的地缘政治风险对国际油价的影 响，王宁表示，从历史上以色列与中东国家的冲突对油价走势的影响来看，短期内市场由于对短期供给 的担忧，推高了油价，但随着事态发展，冲突对油价的影响效应将减弱。突发事件在供给中断续期造成 影响的阶段将影响油价，如果冲突并未升级，后续油价将逐渐回落。 谈及以伊冲突对国际油价造成的长期影响，林伯强表示："从当前的局势来看，伊朗与以色列的冲突仍 然在持续。油价目前要降下去确实比较难。OPEC+（OPEC与非OPEC产油国联盟）增产对当前的国际 油价走势影响并不大。我觉得油价短期不是看空，而是看涨。核心问题就是涨多少。" 不过，林伯强还表示："油价表现目前比较温和。从当前国际油价变动情况来看，伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海 峡的可能性不大。一旦这一原油大通道关闭，国际油价上涨到130美元/桶是有可能的。" 截至6月23日下午3时，布伦特原油价格为77.36美元/桶，涨幅0.45%。 伊朗是OPEC（石油输出国组织）第三大产油国。EIA（美国能源信息署）数据显示，5月份伊朗的原油 产量为3.35百万桶/日。 油气公司业内人士王宁（化名）向记者表 ...

央广网北京6月23日消息（记者 牛谷月）随着美国袭击伊朗核设施，中东冲突再次升级，全球市场不确 定性大增。 全球股市普遍受挫 当地时间周一（6月23日）开盘，全球股市主要股指多数下跌。 美股三大指数小幅低开，道指跌0.11%，纳指跌0.12%，标普500指数跌0.03%。 欧股开盘普跌，德国DAX指数跌0.48%，英国富时100指数跌0.31%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.44%，意大 利富时MIB指数向下触及39000点，跌幅0.79%。 亚市主要股指普遍下跌。截至23日收盘，日经225指数收盘下跌49.14点，跌幅0.13%，报38354.09点； 韩国综合指数收跌0.24%，报3014.47点；富时新加坡海峡指数收跌0.11%，报3879.26点，恒生指数低开 高走，收盘上涨0.67%，报23689.13点。 A股方面，主要指数23日早盘震荡下行，午后拉升转涨。截至收盘，沪指涨0.65%报3381点，深证成指 涨0.43%，创业板指涨0.39%。全天成交1.13万亿元，较前一交易日增量552亿元，全市场超4400股上 涨。 广发证券研报显示，近期区域冲突再升级，触发全球风险偏好下行，A股顺势休整。预计地缘冲 ...

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes that the stock market is at a technical support level, but volatility has reached a new low since 2024, indicating that a trend change may be imminent [5][21]. - The A-share market's trading volume reached 1.12 trillion, an increase of 54.9 billion compared to the previous trading day, with market focus on stablecoins, port shipping, and solid-state batteries [21]. - The report suggests that the probability of an upward trend in the index is low, and managing positions is the best strategy [21]. Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital, as the overall market remains volatile with a lack of positive news [18][8]. - The report notes that the bond market may regain upward momentum due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [8]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1876, an increase of 91 basis points from the previous close, indicating a potential strengthening of the RMB [33]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend for the USD remains bearish [33]. Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.13%, with strong performance in the energy sector but poor performance in agricultural and chemical products [38]. - The report advises caution for investors who have not participated at lower levels, suggesting a wait-and-see approach due to high volatility in oil and related products [38].

2025.06. 23 本文字数：1338，阅读时长大约3分钟 数小时前，美国国土安全部也通过美国全国恐怖主义警报系统发布警告称，黑客分子可能对美国网络 发动低级别网络攻击，以伊冲突可能会促使美国境内的暴力极端分子策划更多袭击。 作者 | 第一财经 程程 图源 | 6月22日在以色列中部内斯齐约纳拍摄的在导弹袭击中被毁的建筑 （新华社图） 据央视新闻，当地时间6月22日，美国国务院发布全球安全警报，警告因以色列与伊朗冲突升级，可 能在全球范围内引发针对美国公民或美国利益的抗议活动。 全球安全警报指出，中东地区目前空中交通已受干扰，部分空域临时关闭，同时"存在针对美国海外 公民和利益的潜在示威风险"，美方建议全球范围内的美国公民"增强安全意识"。 22日，美国国务院还发布公告称，美国驻耶路撒冷大使馆和特拉维夫分馆将于6月23日停止提供紧急 美国护照服务。公告还称，美国大使馆知悉目前有第三方机构正在协助美国公民经陆路离开以色列前 往约旦和埃及，以及经海路离开以色列前往塞浦路斯。美国大使馆还建议希望离开伊朗的美国公民， 在认为情况安全的情况下经陆路前往阿塞拜疆、亚美尼亚或土耳其。 据报道，由于以伊冲突，以色列、伊拉 ...

| /// ◆ 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月23日 | | 原油 | ★☆★ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 上周国际油价继续上行,布伦特08合约涨2.85%,SC08合约涨8.82%;今日开盘后外盘市场高开低走,SC日内涨 0.3%。周日美国袭击伊朗三处核设施，有迹象表明伊朗欲采取的报复回应包括但不限于袭击美国驻伊拉克、叙 利亚美军基地,且伊朗议会已批准封锁霍尔木兹海峡,最终决定由最高安全机构决定。我们始终认为在美伊重 返谈判泉或伊朗政权更替前,伊朗的能源基础设施及霍尔木兹海峡通行相关的供应风险依 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bean Meal**: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - position trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Eggs**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including soybeans, bean meal, edible oils, corn, hogs, and eggs. It takes into account factors such as weather, geopolitics, policies, and supply - demand relationships, and provides corresponding investment suggestions and trend judgments for each product [2][3][7] Summaries by Agricultural Product Categories Soybeans and Related Products - **Domestic Soybeans**: The remaining domestic soybean inventory at the grass - roots level is low, and the policy is conducting auctions for supplementation. Short - term weather is favorable for domestic soybean growth. For imported soybeans, attention should be paid to the report on the new soybean planting area in the US at the end of June, and short - term weather is also beneficial for US soybean growth [2] - **Soybeans and Bean Meal**: The Israel - Iran war has led to a continuous rise in crude oil prices, driving up the prices of oil - related futures. US soybean growing conditions are favorable in the next two weeks. Domestically, soybean arrivals have increased since May, supply has become more abundant, and bean meal inventory is expected to continue to rise. The soybean market is currently in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to changes in the oil market and future weather [3] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: CBOT soybeans should be monitored for the new planting area report at the end of June. The short - term weather outlook is beneficial for US soybeans. CBOT soybean oil prices are strong. Domestically, there is a large arrival pressure in the short term, and the fourth - quarter procurement progress is slower than usual. The long - term view is to maintain a long - position allocation for vegetable oils, and short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game [4] Rapeseed Products - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed meal prices generally declined today, while rapeseed oil prices showed mixed trends. The weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas is dry, and the crop quality is below the average in recent years. Domestic rapeseed crushing has declined, which supports the high price difference between rapeseed products and competing products. The impact of geopolitical risks and biodiesel policies has been mostly digested, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy for rapeseed products is to shift from a bullish stance to a wait - and - see approach [6] Corn - The introduction of the minimum wheat purchase price policies in Henan and Anhui has strengthened the price increase expectations of corn/wheat. The supply of corn in the circulation link has tightened, and the futures market may continue to fluctuate [7] Hogs - The weekend increase in hog spot prices drove the futures market to open higher today and then fluctuate. In the short term, group farms are reducing supply to support prices, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased. In the medium term, the pressure on hog slaughter is large. In the long term, the policy aims to stabilize hog prices, and attention should be paid to when the production capacity reaches an inflection point [8] Eggs - Due to the high number of chick replenishments from January to April this year, egg - laying capacity is still being released. The long - term egg price cycle has not reached the bottom, and there is a possibility of further decline in the far - month contracts [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged, the Middle - East geopolitical situation further escalated, the US dollar index rose weekly, stocks and bonds were weak, and commodities continued to rise. In general, commodities > bonds > stocks in terms of USD - denominated assets [3][6]. - In China, from June 16th to June 20th, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in May was lower than expected, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in May was higher than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment from January to May was 3.7%, lower than expected. The year - on - year decline of national real estate development investment from January to May was 10.7%. The stock market declined, and the bond market and commodities rose. Generally, commodities > bonds > stocks [3]. - The market will focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [3][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Large - scale Asset Overall Performance - **Global Stock Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the Middle - East situation increased market risk - aversion, and most global stock markets declined. European stocks performed poorly, and emerging markets were slightly more resilient than developed markets. The VIX index fluctuated weekly [8]. - **Global Bond Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting maintained the target range of the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.5%, in line with market expectations. The divergence of Fed officials' monetary policy expectations increased. Medium - and long - term US bond yields declined, and the 10 - year US bond yield fell 3BP to 4.38% weekly. The bond market fluctuated weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [13]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the US macro data was generally stable, market risk - aversion increased, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated narrowly. The US dollar index rose 0.63% weekly [14]. - **Global Commodity Market**: The escalation of the geopolitical situation supported the high - level operation of international oil prices. Precious metal prices declined, and the prices of major agricultural products and non - ferrous metals showed mixed trends [16]. 3.2 Domestic Large - scale Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the geopolitical situation continued to affect equity assets, and most major broad - based A - share indexes declined. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, large - cap blue - chips were relatively more resilient. Among sectors, banks had the highest gains, while pharmaceuticals and textile and apparel underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51% weekly [18]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 799 billion yuan. The capital market remained stable overall. The bond market fluctuated strongly weekly. Generally, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [21]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose overall. Among major commodity sectors, energy had the highest gains, while precious metals underperformed [22]. 3.3 Large - scale Asset Price Outlook - The market will continue to focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [23].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has experienced a significant decline against major currencies, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices, which may worsen Japan's trade balance and reduce the yen's attractiveness [2][5][6]. Currency Performance - On June 23, the yen fell sharply against major currencies, with the USD/JPY rising by 1.3% to a high of 148.0335, the highest since May 13 [5]. - The offshore yuan also saw a decline of over 1% against the yen, while the Hong Kong dollar, euro, and British pound appreciated against the yen by 1.22%, 0.74%, and 0.66% respectively [5]. Geopolitical Impact - Analysts suggest that Iran may retaliate against the U.S., potentially affecting oil production and exports in the region, which is crucial for Japan as it relies heavily on oil imports from the Middle East [5][9]. - Japan imports over 90% of its oil from the Middle East, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices [9]. Economic Implications - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East could lead to increased import-driven inflation in Japan, hindering the normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, with expectations for the next interest rate hike being pushed to Q1 2026 [7][10]. - Rising oil prices are expected to deteriorate Japan's trade surplus and trade conditions, further weakening the yen [10]. Investment Strategies - U.S. Bank strategists recommend investors buy USD/JPY to hedge against the risks associated with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [8]. - Citigroup analysts noted that rising oil prices could compound downward pressure on the yen, especially given the Bank of Japan's dovish stance in recent policy meetings [10]. Oil Price Outlook - International oil prices have surged, with Brent crude futures rising over 5% and WTI crude futures increasing over 3% on June 23 [14]. - Analysts predict that even a partial disruption in oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz could lead to significant price increases, potentially reaching $110 per barrel for Brent crude [16][19]. Regional Currency Vulnerability - Other currencies such as the Philippine peso, South Korean won, and Thai baht are also susceptible to rising oil prices, which may limit the monetary policy flexibility of their respective central banks [11][12][13].

Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions - The recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have become a focal point for the market, despite the expectation that geopolitical risks would increase demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The market remains cautious, partly due to the hawkish stance maintained by Federal Reserve officials [1] - If Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could exceed $100, leading to heightened fear and panic among investors [1] Currency Volatility - The volatility of the USD/JPY pair is the highest across all time frames, particularly with a one-month volatility rate of -0.028 [2] - The USD/JPY pair rose to 147.39 yen following the U.S. attack on Iran, with traders holding $12.5 billion in yen long positions [2] - The Japanese yen has depreciated by 2.4% against the dollar since the Israeli missile strikes on Iranian targets began [2] Impact on Japan's Economy - Japan's heavy reliance on imported oil makes it vulnerable to rising oil prices, which threaten its trade balance and weaken the yen's attractiveness [3] - The spike in oil prices has worsened Japan's trade conditions, further diminishing its economic competitiveness [3] Eurozone Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's natural gas prices are highly correlated with the euro exchange rate, with rising gas prices likely to weaken the euro and reduce the current account surplus [5] - Natural gas prices have surged from approximately $2.8 to over $4 since late April, indicating a potential further shrinkage of the Eurozone's surplus [6] - The Eurozone's economic growth exceeded expectations at the beginning of the year, but lost momentum in April due to U.S. tariff policies [6] Swiss Franc and Safe-Haven Demand - The Swiss franc is supported by safe-haven demand and signals from the Swiss National Bank indicating no inclination to lower interest rates further [7] - The current USD/CHF pair is trading within a range established over the past week, with market participants remaining cautious about directional choices [7] UK Economic Activity - The UK's PMI data exceeded expectations, yet the GBP/USD exchange rate fell by 0.1% to $1.3430, indicating a muted market reaction [8] - Manufacturing activity in the UK has contracted for the ninth consecutive month, although the contraction rate is the smallest since January [8] - The June services PMI rose from 50.9 to 51.3, while the manufacturing PMI improved from 46.4 to 47.7, suggesting a slight recovery despite ongoing challenges [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry is "Outperform the Market" [2][6][24] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the increasing tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran's potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could significantly impact global oil supply and prices [3][4][19] - OPEC+ has announced substantial production increases, but actual output has not met expectations due to compensatory cuts from member countries [8][12] - The rising operational costs for U.S. shale oil production are expected to lead to a decline in U.S. oil output by 2026 [13][16] Summary by Sections Industry Events - The Iranian parliament has suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil and gas, which could lead to a spike in oil prices if implemented [3][4] - Historical precedents show that threats or actions to close the Strait have previously resulted in significant price increases, with predictions of oil prices reaching $120 per barrel if a closure occurs [5][19] OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ has announced a collective reduction of 2 million barrels per day and has extended voluntary cuts until the end of 2026, with plans to gradually restore production starting in 2025 [8][12] - Despite these announcements, actual production increases have been lower than planned, primarily due to compensatory measures from countries like Iraq and the UAE [12] U.S. Shale Oil Production - The operational costs for existing U.S. shale oil wells have risen, with average costs now at $41 per barrel, leading to a forecasted decline in production [13][16] - The EIA predicts a decrease in U.S. oil production from 13.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2025 to 13.3 million barrels per day by Q4 2026 [16] Investment Recommendations - If Iran proceeds with closing the Strait of Hormuz or if other geopolitical tensions escalate, there is a strong possibility of a significant rise in international oil prices [19] - The report estimates that Brent crude oil prices could stabilize between $70 and $80 per barrel, while WTI prices could range from $65 to $75 per barrel under current conditions [19] Company Valuations - Key companies in the sector, such as China National Petroleum and CNOOC, are rated as "Outperform the Market" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [20]