Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of domestic cotton is stable with a projected slight increase in planting area, and the market focus is on consumption. The export situation is severe due to tariff hikes, and domestic consumption is in the off - season. Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is under pressure, and its performance is affected by macro - changes. If the trade situation improves, it may emerge from the weak trend. [1][27] - The global cotton market remains under pressure, with the USDA's April report increasing the global inventory. However, short - term consumption of US cotton is stimulated by Southeast Asian countries' rush to export, which supports the price of US cotton. The political uncertainty of the US president brings high market risks and uncertain impacts on the cotton market. [2][27] - The operation suggestion is to mainly conduct short - term trading in Zhengmian. [2][28] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In April, Zhengmian experienced a cliff - like decline and then maintained weak oscillations. After the US unexpectedly increased tariffs on April 7, Zhengmian dropped with a gap, and the panic spread. On April 9, the main contract of Zhengmian reached a minimum of 12,490 yuan/ton and then oscillated at a low level. [5] - The international cotton market declined and then rebounded in April. After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs, the global trade situation was tense, and US cotton reached a minimum of 62.05 cents/pound on April 4. Then, as the market digested the negative impact and the trade situation improved, the price of US cotton rebounded and basically recovered the decline. [5] 2. Domestic Market Analysis 2.1 Weak Operating Rates - Due to the tense Sino - US trade situation, the textile and weaving industries suffered a severe blow in April. As of April 18, the operating rate of textile enterprises was 54.8%, remaining unchanged since February 28. The operating rate of weaving enterprises was 52.4%, slightly down 0.1 percentage points from the previous week and at the lowest level in five years. [7] - As of April 18, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 18.7 days, up 0.3 days from the previous week and down 5.1 days year - on - year. The finished - product inventory of weaving enterprises was 31.4 days, down 0.3 days from the previous week and up 4.5 days year - on - year. The inventory accumulation of both was obvious, with the weaving enterprises' inventory at a high level compared with the same period in previous years. [10] 2.2 Escalation of Sino - US Trade Conflicts - On April 2, 2025, Trump announced a national emergency and a series of tariff policies, including a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on all trading partners effective on April 5, and "reciprocal tariffs" of 10 - 50% on trade - deficit countries. The policy of canceling the "small - value exemption" for Chinese exports under $800 will take effect on May 2. [12] - China announced multiple counter - measures on April 4, including imposing a 34% tariff on all US imports from April 10, suing the US at the WTO, and taking other relevant measures. [13] - The US continued to threaten to increase tariffs on China, and China synchronously raised tariffs on US imports. Later, the US tried to ease the international pressure, and both sides showed signs of potential negotiation. [14][15] - Compared with the 2018 trade war, the scope of this tariff measure is wider, hitting all trading partners. The US also imposed high tariffs on Southeast Asian countries, with comprehensive tax rates on some goods exceeding 60%, affecting their代工 economy. [16][17] - New models of trans - shipment trade are expected to emerge. Chinese enterprises can set up factories in Mexico through the USMCA to reduce tariffs, and African countries' cotton - related industrial parks enjoy zero - tariff treatment under the AGOA. [18] - The deterioration of the trade situation has a negative impact on the domestic and international cotton markets. China's textile and clothing exports to the US may see a sharp decline, and China's imports of US cotton are likely to stop. [19] 3. International Market Analysis 3.1 Weak Global Production and Consumption with a Slight Increase in Inventory - According to the USDA's April cotton supply - demand report, global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume are all declining, while the inventory is increasing. The global total output decreased by 69,000 bales, consumption decreased by 520,000 bales, and the monthly import volume declined. The global ending inventory in the 2024/25 season increased by more than 520,000 bales. [21][23] 3.2 Stronger US Cotton Exports with Southeast Asian Countries' Rush to Export - During the 90 - day suspension period of the "reciprocal tariff" given by the US government, Southeast Asian countries may make concessions in tariffs. Southeast Asian yarn mills and cotton trading enterprises are rushing to export, which stimulates short - term US cotton consumption. [25] - As of April 10, 2024/25, the total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.527 million tons, accounting for 107% of the annual predicted total export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume was 1.674 million tons, accounting for 66% of the total annual signed volume. [25]

Group 1 - The U.S. is facing significant debt pressure, and the trade war with China has escalated unexpectedly for Trump [2][4] - Trump has been vocal in his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, demanding interest rate cuts to support the economy, but Powell has maintained the Fed's independence [6][8] - High interest rates are causing distress in the U.S. manufacturing sector, with average loan rates exceeding 6%, impacting companies like Tesla and Walmart [10][12] Group 2 - Trump's trade policies aim to reduce trade deficits and revive U.S. manufacturing, but high loan rates hinder companies from relocating to the U.S. [12][14] - A significant amount of U.S. debt, totaling $6.5 trillion, is maturing soon, leading to concerns about the government's ability to meet these obligations [14] - China has refused to negotiate with the U.S. in response to Trump's tariffs, contrasting with previous negotiations during his first term [16][18] Group 3 - Trump has attempted to signal goodwill towards China by suggesting potential tariff reductions, despite no communication from China [20][22] - The situation in Taiwan is being leveraged by Trump, as he may be influencing Taiwan's leadership to adopt a more conciliatory stance towards China [27][28] - The dynamics between the U.S. and Taiwan are shifting, with calls for peace contrasting with previous aggressive rhetoric [25][30]

长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 投资人记事 来源：雪球 基金年报+一季报相继出炉 ， 又到了我们了解自己基金经理的时间窗口了 。 不妨来看看 ， 朱少醒 、 张坤 、 谢治宇今年一季度在干嘛 ？ 他们的基民在做什么 ？ 截至今年一季度末 ， 朱少醒 、 张坤 、 谢治宇三位基金经理 ， 管理的资产规模合计约1258亿元 。 我们分两个部分 ， 去了解我们的基金经理 。 第一部分是 ， 他们的基民在做什么 ， 这决定了基金经理的很多行为模式 。 公募基金管理的一个重要工作 ， 就是流动性管理 ， 面对基民的申赎 ， 基金经理会做一些被动的买卖 ， 我们需要大致了解 ， 他们在报告期花了多大精力在被动工作 。 另外 ， 基金规模决定了 ， 他们的交易操作到底是真的增减持 ， 还是被动增减持 ， 任何不基于基金规模 变动的持仓分析 ， 都不靠谱 。 比如 ， 一个基金规模原本100亿 ， 现在200亿 ， 假设原本持有茅台10亿元 ， 现在持有茅台12亿元 ， 你说 ， 它是增持还是减持 ？ 数字上看 ， 是增持的 。 然而 ， 因为10亿 ...

本期内容转载自公众号「十分之一信箱」 朋友们，周日早上好！又到了我们放送好奇心的时间。看看过去两周，「Knock Knock 世界」又收到了哪些来 自少年听众的观察和疑问。 如果你也有感兴趣的问题，点击我们的选题投递箱入口：https://sourl.cn/uwvZsy，或者直接在「Knock Knock 世界」每期节目的评论区留言，把好奇心发送给我们。 税,对我们生活有什么影响? 如何理解贸易战?美国和我国加 关税对经济贸易有哪些影响? 「关税」在投递箱里挤爆了，所 以 …… 记得收听「Knock Knock 世 界」上周五更新的第十期节目哦。 为什么地铁里有女士车厢,没有 男士车厢? 世界各地都能吃到麦当劳,但是 不一定能吃到肯德基,明明都卖 炸鸡,在中国肯德基还更好吃,为 什么麦当劳更受欢迎呢? 我很好奇,在乐高逐渐占领市场 的背景下,布鲁可是如何实现突 破的?为什么那些乐高没能合作 的众多 IP,反而纷纷出现在布鲁 可的产品线上?另外,我也想了 解,拼装积木这个行业,是因为有 技术壁垒吗?为什么感觉这个赛 道上的品牌不像其他行业那么 多?乐高是不是拥有某些独特的 专利?希望能听到「Knock Knoc ...

对于美国的这一系列举措，可以用一句中国俗话来形容："软的不吃来硬的，硬的不吃来软的"。美国的软硬策略，最终却发现并没有奏效。中国在这一过程 中保持了清醒的头脑，深刻了解特朗普的动向。自贸易战第一轮以来，中国已经为应对各种可能的局面做好了充分准备。当前中美两国的国内形势恰恰证明 了这一点。 随后，部分美国媒体透露，可能会采取将对华关税降至"50%~65%"的方案，另一种方案被称为"分级方案"，即对第一类商品征收35%的关税，对第二类商品 的税率至少为100%。然而，白宫新闻秘书莱维特却坚称，特朗普在关税问题上的立场并未软化。 对此，中方回应称："如果美方真心希望通过对话来解决问题，应该放弃极限施压的策略，停止威胁和讹诈，在平等、尊重和互惠的基础上与中方开展对 话。"事实上，即便美国将关税降至50%左右，两国之间的贸易仍然会受到严重制约。正如美国财政部长所说，关税的影响导致中美贸易几乎停滞。 自4月2日以来，美国对华加征关税的幅度迅速提升至125%。面对这一变化，中方采取了相应的反制措施，并明确表示："在目前的关税水平下，美国的输华 商品已无市场可言。如果美方继续玩弄关税游戏，中方将不予理睬。但若美方继续侵犯中方 ...

Core Insights - The airline industry is experiencing significant challenges due to the ongoing global trade war, leading to uncertainty in passenger demand and revenue projections [1] - Major airlines, including Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, and Alaska Air Group, have withdrawn their full-year 2025 guidance, indicating a cautious outlook for investors [1] Airline Performance - Southwest Airlines reported weakened bookings throughout the first quarter, while Alaska Air Group anticipates a 6-point decline in second-quarter revenues due to reduced demand [3] - American Airlines provided a modest second-quarter earnings forecast of $0.50 to $1.00, which is significantly below consensus estimates [3] - Delta Air Lines and United Airlines have also expressed caution, with Delta not planning to expand flying in the second half of the year due to disappointing bookings [4] Market Trends - The U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS), which tracks major airline stocks, has seen a decline of 2.3% over the past week and 27.4% since the beginning of the year [2] - The ETF holds 56 securities, primarily focused on the top four largest U.S. carriers, which collectively account for nearly 10% of the index [5] Travel Demand - There is a notable decline in both domestic and international travel, attributed to a potential economic slowdown linked to the Trump administration's tariff policies [7] - International arrivals to the U.S. have sharply decreased, with a 3.3% year-over-year decline in global visitors reported for 2025, and an 11.6% drop in March compared to the previous year [8] Future Outlook - The near-term outlook for airline stocks remains subdued, with the domestic economy class under pressure until trade negotiations and consumer sentiment stabilize [11] - Despite current challenges, the JETS ETF is still considered a viable investment option due to its diversified exposure to various firms within the airline industry [12]

瑞达期货研究院 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 「2025.4.25」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格多数下行，主力合约收跌12.21%，其余合约收得-3-1%不等。最新SCFIS欧线结算 运价指数为1508.44，较上周回升106.09点，环比上行7.6%。当地时间4月22日，美国总统特朗普在白宫新闻发布会上 表示，对中国商品征收的高关税将"大幅下降"。当天，美国财政部长贝森特也暗示中美关系将缓和，并表示对华高 关税不可持续。然而，美方发言虽缓和了高额关税给国际贸易环境带来的负面影响，但中美关税谈判并未正式展开， 因此近月需求依旧遭受打击。此外，欧元区3月制造业PMI持续位于收缩区间，尤其是德国作为欧元区经济引擎，其制 造业的持续低迷可能对欧元区整体经济复苏构成压力，同时通胀压力依然存在，经济持续承压。从汇率来看，4月份 美国消费者信心急剧恶化，录得50.8，远低于前值57及预期值 ...

20 25年4月23日至24日，二十国集团（G2 0）主席国南非在美国华盛顿举 行今年第二次G2 0财长和央行行长会议。会议讨论了全球经济展望、完善 国际金融架构、应对非洲发展和增长困境等议题。财政部部长蓝佛安，中 国人民银行行长潘功胜出席会议并发言。 蓝佛安：关税战、贸易战进一步影响经济金融稳定 2025年4月23日至24日，二十国集团（G20）主席国南非在美国华盛顿举行今年第二次G20财长和央行行长会议。会议主要就全球宏观经济形势和金融稳 定、国际金融架构以及促进非洲增长和发展等议题进行了讨论。财政部部长蓝佛安出席会议并发言，副部长廖岷陪同参会。 来源 | 财政部、中国人民银行 编辑丨丁开艳 责编丨兰银帆 往期回顾 Review of Past Articles - 蓝佛安表示，当前世界经济增长动能不足，关税战、贸易战进一步影响经济金融稳定。中方坚定维护以世界贸易组织为核心的多边贸易体制，主张通过平 等对话协商解决贸易和关税争议，也将坚定维护自身正当权益。各方应通过加强多边合作进一步完善国际经济金融体系，积极推动多边开发银行改革，有 效推进国际复兴开发银行股权审议，务实完善《缓债倡议后续债务处理共同框架》 ...

Core Insights - Temu, launched by PDD, has rapidly grown to 292 million monthly active users by the end of 2024, with 185.6 million in the U.S., becoming the most downloaded shopping app globally [2] - The Trump administration's new tariffs on Chinese goods could significantly impact Temu's growth and PDD's strategy to diversify away from China [4] - Meta Platforms has benefited from Temu's advertising spending, but Temu's decision to reduce ad purchases could pose risks to Meta's revenue [5][13] Group 1: Temu's Growth and Impact - Temu's user base reached 292 million MAUs globally by the end of 2024, with a significant portion in the U.S. [2] - The app's growth may be threatened by new tariffs that could impose up to 245% on imports from China, affecting PDD's business model [4] - Temu's advertising expenditures on Meta's platforms have been substantial, with estimates of $1.4 billion in 2024, representing 1% of Meta's total revenue [13] Group 2: Meta's Financial Performance - Meta's revenue and earnings per share saw significant growth from 2022 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 19% and 67%, respectively [8] - In 2023, Meta's revenue from China surged 85% to $13.7 billion, accounting for 10% of its total revenue, and continued to grow by 34% to $18.4 billion in 2024 [10][11] - Despite the challenges, China remains Meta's fastest-growing market, driven by increased ad spending from Chinese companies [12] Group 3: Risks from Trade Relations - Meta's reliance on Chinese advertisers like Temu makes it vulnerable to the impacts of rising tariffs and trade tensions between the U.S. and China [14] - The potential loss of ad revenue from Temu and other Chinese e-commerce platforms could disrupt Meta's financial stability, despite its primary revenue being from advertising [14]

报告日期：2025 年 4 月 25 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：央行 MLF 操作，黄金强势依旧 中美没有就关税问题磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。据新华网，有记者问：近 来美方不断有消息称，中美之间正在谈判，甚至将会达成协议。你能否证实双方 有没有开始谈判？外交部发言人郭嘉昆说，这些都是假消息。"据我了解，中美 双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。"特朗普考虑对华 关税分级方案。央视网援引《华尔街日报》报道，美方高级官员透露，特朗普政 府正考虑多种方案。中国央行 25 日将开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，将实现净投放 5000 亿。本月有 1000 亿元 MLF 到期，在 4 月 25 日进行 6000 亿元 MLF 操作后， 将实现净投放 5000 亿元。3 月央行超量续作 MLF，实现净投放 630 亿元，是 2024 年 7 月以来 MLF 首次净投放，展现了适度宽松的货币政策取向。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、集运指数 原油：SC 上涨 1%。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产 量水平时，哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。 他还表 ...