"美联储的独立性很重要，因为它可以确保对通货膨胀有个更稳定的预期。政治干预可能会加大美联储降低利率的难度。" 在美国总统特朗普日前再次施压美联储降息之际，美国圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长阿尔韦托·穆萨莱姆表明了以上态度。 利率将第四次维持不变？ 在日前公布的数据显示5月美国私营部门就业岗位增幅创下两年多以来新低、服务业意外出现近一年来的首次收缩，同时欧洲央行宣布了一年内的第八次降 息决定后，美国领导人坐不住了。 总统特朗普6日再次将矛头指向迟迟不肯进一步降息的美联储主席鲍威尔，在社交媒体上称鲍威尔为"太迟先生"且"是个灾难"，并称美国经济"表现很棒"， 敦促美联储"加油"，立即降息"整整一个百分点"。 特朗普社交媒体截图 在第二条帖文中，特朗普进一步炮轰鲍威尔"让美国付出了巨大代价"，称通胀"几乎已经不存在"，贷款利率应该被大幅降低。 特朗普社交媒体截图 虽然特朗普要求的"整整一个百分点"的降息幅度不同寻常，但他敦促美联储降息的做法并不新鲜。 为了应对40年不遇的高通胀，美联储从2022年开始大幅加息。随着通胀回落，美联储又从去年9月开始降息，以免过高的利率制约经济增长。但近几个月持 续高于2%理想目标的通胀率促 ...

Group 1 - The current political pressure on the Federal Reserve, particularly from Trump, mirrors historical events that led to significant inflation in the 1970s [1][2] - Three controversial candidates for the Federal Reserve chairmanship have emerged: Walsh, Bowman, and Shelton, each with potentially destabilizing policy positions [2][3] - Historical lessons indicate that political interference in monetary policy often results in market distortions, uncontrolled inflation, and a loss of policy credibility [4] Group 2 - Walsh's previous misjudgment during the 2008 financial crisis raises concerns about his potential impact on inflation and the credibility of the dollar if he assumes leadership [3] - Bowman's inclination towards deregulation could pose risks to financial stability, reminiscent of the 2008 crisis, particularly if capital requirements are relaxed [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future leadership could lead to significant pricing distortions in assets with maturities of five years or more [3] Group 3 - Investors are advised to adopt defensive strategies, including increasing holdings in gold and cryptocurrencies to hedge against dollar risks [5] - Shortening bond durations is recommended due to rising volatility in the 10-year Treasury yield [5] - Maintaining liquidity and diversified portfolios is essential for navigating potential market turbulence stemming from political pressures on the Federal Reserve [5]

屡屡催促美联储降息却一再"无功而返"后，美国总统特朗普可能又开始考虑换掉美联储主席鲍威尔，或 者是设立一位"影子联储主席"，架空鲍威尔。 美东时间时间6月6日周五，特朗普表示，正在考虑下一任美联储主席的人选，"很快就会发布"。特朗普 并未透露大概的人选范围，只是说，他已经差不多想好要选谁，这个人广受尊重，他还说，一位优秀的 美联储主席会降息。他重申，鲍威尔应降低利率。 被问到外界视为可能接替鲍威尔的前美联储理事沃什时，特朗普回答："他是被高度重视的。" 不过，去年就有分析称，特朗普通过设立"影子主席"来影响美联储决策的想法可能行不通，即使能够影 响货币政策，特朗普也无法通过刺激政策摆脱随之而来的通胀飙升问题。 特朗普一再"攻击" 削弱市场对鲍威尔接班人信心 由于特朗普政府4月2日公布的所谓对等关税水平远超联储预期，且此后关税政策摇摆不定、不确定性 高，联储决策者越发担心高关税会持续推升通胀，届时陷入滞胀的困境，鲍威尔今年多次表态称不急于 降息。直到本周二，还有多位美联储官员罕见表达对通胀压力持久的强烈担忧。 就在对等关税公布的4月，特朗普开始密集"炮轰"鲍威尔，让外界猜测他会不会寻求罢免鲍威尔。白宫还 传出美 ...

Group 1 - President Trump indicated that a decision regarding the next Federal Reserve Chairman will be announced soon, emphasizing that a good Chairman should lower interest rates [1] - Trump suggested that the Federal Reserve should reduce interest rates by a full percentage point, criticizing current Chairman Jerome Powell for being slow to act on lowering borrowing costs [1] - Trump's comments and actions have led to speculation about the potential replacement of Powell, with Kevin Warsh being a favored candidate for the position [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns have arisen regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, as Trump's repeated criticisms of Powell and the potential for a leadership change may undermine future monetary policy effectiveness [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and tariffs has increased worries among Federal Reserve officials about persistent inflation, which has contributed to Powell's reluctance to lower interest rates [2] - Financial analysts have suggested that Powell may face significant challenges, including the possibility of being directly dismissed or having his authority undermined by a new appointee [2]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is exerting pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, suggesting a one percentage point cut, while also hinting at potential changes in leadership at the Fed [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - Trump announced that the appointment of the next Federal Reserve chairman will be revealed soon, indicating he has a candidate in mind who is well-respected [2]. - Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, is considered a strong candidate for the next chairman, as he has publicly supported Trump's criticisms of the Fed [2][3]. - There are concerns that Trump's intervention in the Fed's leadership could undermine the independence of the institution, affecting future monetary policy effectiveness [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Policy - Trump criticized current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, labeling him as a disaster and urging for a significant reduction in interest rates, claiming that the U.S. has not followed Europe in making necessary cuts [4]. - The Fed has maintained the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50% for three consecutive meetings, with officials expressing concerns over economic uncertainties stemming from Trump's policies [5]. - Recent employment data indicates a slowdown in job growth, which may influence the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rates [4][5]. Group 3: Regulatory Changes - Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision, Randal Quarles, is advocating for a comprehensive review and relaxation of banking regulations, arguing that many rules have become overly burdensome [6][7]. - The Fed plans to reassess regulations for large banks, aiming to allow for "orderly failures" without threatening the stability of the banking system [6]. - Quarles emphasized the need for a more sensible approach to bank ratings, focusing on significant risks rather than subjective judgments [7].

据央视新闻6月7日，当地时间6月6日，美国总统特朗普在接受记者采访时表示，下一任美联储主席的任命结果将很快公布，他对人选已有相当明确的认识。 彭博社则在5月8日报道称，特朗普的言论再次挑战了美联储的独立性，此举可能令已经因美总统不断变化的关税计划而摇摆不定的市场进一步陷入不安。彭 博社还指出，这位美国总统多次就是否解雇鲍威尔发出矛盾信号。4月，特朗普公开说考虑解雇鲍威尔，其首席经济顾问称政府正在研究总统是否具备此权 限——但特朗普随后又说无意采取行动。 5月7日，美联储主席鲍威尔宣布美联储决定维持利率不变，称特朗普的关税战已经带来通胀和失业率上升的风险。 图片来源：央视新闻 据央视新闻，当地时间5月8日，美国总统特朗普对记者表示，如果美国联邦储备委员会愿意降息，将对美国经济产生"像航空燃料一样的"促进作用，但美联 储主席鲍威尔拒绝降息，可能是因为"他不爱我"。 5月7日，鲍威尔在回答记者提问时说，尽管特朗普一再呼吁降息，但这对于美联储的决策和他本人的工作"影响不了一点"。鲍威尔还表示，他不会主动要求 与特朗普见面，与美联储主席的会面应由总统方面提出。 图片来源：视觉中国 据央视新闻，当地时间6月6日，美国总统 ...

Core Insights - The President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Patrick Harker, emphasized the resilience of the U.S. economy and suggested that decision-makers should adopt a wait-and-see approach until the impacts of tariffs and other policies on economic outlook become clearer [1][3] - Harker supports the recent decision to maintain the Federal Reserve's policy interest rates unchanged, indicating a cautious and certain approach during uncertain times [1][3] Economic Outlook - There remains uncertainty regarding how the U.S. economy will respond to President Trump's policies on immigration, trade, taxation, and regulation, leading Federal Reserve officials to signal intentions to keep borrowing costs stable [3] - Some decision-makers believe it may take several months to gather sufficient information to determine whether interest rates should be adjusted [3] Inflation and Employment - Harker noted the possibility of rising inflation and unemployment rates, but stated that this is "far from certain" [3] - He highlighted the need to understand the extent and persistence of the impacts on inflation and employment before making policy adjustments [3] Upcoming Reports - The upcoming May employment report is expected to provide the latest insights into the labor market, which will be crucial for Federal Reserve officials [3] Leadership Transition - Harker will conclude his tenure at the end of the month, marking the end of a decade-long leadership at the Philadelphia Fed, with Anna Paulson set to succeed him [3] - In his farewell address, Harker underscored the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence, stressing that monetary policy decisions must remain free from external noise and interference [3]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is deemed crucial as the economy faces multiple potential paths, while the job market remains largely stable [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's independence is emphasized as a vital aspect of its operations [1] - The economy is currently navigating various possible trajectories, indicating uncertainty in future economic conditions [1] - The job market has shown a basic level of stability up to this point, suggesting resilience in employment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant downturn in the U.S. labor market, as evidenced by the ADP employment data showing an increase of only 37,000 jobs in May, the smallest since March 2023, which is far below market expectations [1] - The ISM services PMI index fell to 49.9 in May, marking the first contraction in nearly a year, indicating a broader economic slowdown [1] - The combination of disappointing employment and services data has led to volatility in U.S. capital markets, with a weakening dollar and strengthening of U.S. Treasuries and gold [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reported a slight decline in U.S. economic activity, attributing this to tariffs and high uncertainty affecting the economy [2] - The Beige Book also noted moderate price increases, with many respondents expecting faster cost and price hikes in the future, with some regions anticipating significant price increases [2] - A report from the Congressional Budget Office indicated that Trump's tariff policy could reduce the deficit by $2.8 trillion over ten years but would also lead to economic contraction, higher inflation, and decreased purchasing power for American households [2]

在这一背景下，美国财政部副部长迈克尔·福克德于6月2日表示，特朗普政府在贸易谈判方面已经取得"非常好的进展"，并称"部分贸易协议即将达成"，他 认为，只要继续取得进展，更多协议有望在7月9日之前宣布。 4月2日，美国总统特朗普宣布实施"对等关税"政策，短短一周后的4月9日，他却突然决定为部分国家的"对等关税"设定90天的暂缓期。在这段暂缓期内，关 税将降至10%，同时特朗普政府与多个国家开始进行贸易谈判，旨在达成新一轮的贸易协议。然而，90天的暂缓期所剩时间不多，目前谈判进展较慢，除了 与英国签订了贸易协议，并与中国达成了一些重要共识外，其他国家的谈判几乎停滞不前。 如今，随着90天的暂缓期即将到期，特朗普政府显得十分急迫。特朗普在近期表示，一旦暂缓期结束，他不打算再延长，而是恢复高额的"对等关税"。不 过，特朗普的关税政策一向反复无常，谁也无法预料到最终会发生什么变化，甚至他自己可能也没有确切的答案。 不仅如此，特朗普的关税政策还面临法律挑战。过去两周，特朗普政府先后遭遇了两次与关税相关的法律挑战，均涉及特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力 法》(IEEPA)加征关税的越权问题。5月28日，美国国际贸易法院裁定 ...