（责任编辑：王治强 HF013） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com "十五五"时期，推动高质量发展继续成为经济社会发展的主题。党的二十届四中全会对"十五五"时 期的高质量发展作出哪些新部署，一图梳理如下： ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 中美元首会议结束，股指走势分化 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-11-3 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因 素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 经济和企 | 偏空 | 10月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）回落至49.0%，较上月下降0.8个百分点，收缩态势有所加剧。从具体构成看，生产与需求两端同步走弱， | | 业盈利 | | 价格水平继续回调，企业仍处于主动去库存周期。同期，房地产市场下行压力依然存在，建筑业活动指数出现小幅回落。在非制造业领域，商 | | | | 务活动指数为50.1%，略升0.1个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.0%，较前月下降0.6个百分点。 ...

螺纹：期货估值偏低 回落做多为宜 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-11-03 【产业服务总部 | 黑色产业服务中心】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 11月观点：钢材估值偏低 回落做多为宜 逻辑与策略 交易逻辑：10月份，钢材先跌后涨，双焦则持续走强，钢材明显弱于原料，钢厂盘面利润与现货生产利润均下滑。宏观方面，一 系列重磅事件相继落地，"十五五"规划出炉、美联储如期降息、中美元首釜山会晤。产业方面，10月螺纹钢产量小幅下降、需求略 有回升，库存先增后减，环比9月底减少30多万吨，焦煤受安检、环保等政策影响，产量出现反复，目前同比偏低。 11月份，宏观方面，9月底推出了5000亿新型政策性金融工具、10月从地方政府债务结存限额中安排5000亿元下达地方，全年完 成经济目标的压力不大，不过为实现"十四五"圆满收官与"十五五"顺利开局，仍需关注政策是否会加码，另外反内卷大方向确定， 虽然本轮周期可能较长，但政策举措可能时有出台，会对盘面带来扰动。产业方面，预计11月螺纹产量稳中走低、需求先强后弱，库 存仍能缓慢去化，在铁水产量 ...

Economic Goals - The main goal is to maintain economic growth within a reasonable range, with total factor productivity steadily improving and a significant increase in the resident consumption rate[2] - By 2035, the target is to achieve a per capita GDP of over $20,000, doubling the 2020 level, which requires an average annual GDP growth of 4.17% during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans[3][20] Industrial Development - Emphasis on strengthening the global competitiveness of traditional industries such as mining, metallurgy, and construction, while accelerating the development of strategic emerging industries like new energy and aerospace[2] - Key technologies in integrated circuits, high-end instruments, and advanced materials are prioritized for breakthroughs through unconventional measures[2] Domestic Demand and Income - The report highlights the need to reasonably increase public service spending as a proportion of fiscal expenditure and to enhance government investment in livelihood projects[2] - New measures include implementing a collective wage negotiation system and improving the minimum wage adjustment mechanism[2] Financial and Capital Market Reforms - The central financial office aims to promote the consolidation and restructuring of small financial institutions and complete financial legislation[3] - The focus is on enhancing the capital market's inclusivity and adaptability, encouraging the transformation of household savings into social investments[21] Fiscal Policy - The finance minister emphasizes the need to standardize tax incentives and fiscal subsidies while preventing local protectionism and "involution" competition[4] - A total of 5 trillion yuan has been allocated for local government debt, with 2 trillion yuan earmarked for specific investment projects, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan[18] International Trade and Relations - The U.S. has agreed to cancel a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, while a 24% reciprocal tariff will remain suspended for one year, indicating a shift towards more cooperative trade relations[6][19] - Both countries have reached consensus on various issues, including fentanyl cooperation and expanding agricultural trade[6][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Hold long positions on rubber futures [1][2][8] Core Viewpoints - The market is dominated by sentiment this week, with prices rising and then falling without breaking through the technical resistance level. The natural rubber fundamentals remain bullish, and the price correction this week is not a new downward trend. It is recommended to continue holding long positions [2][3][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Review - RU2601 opened at 15330, reached a high of 15670, a low of 15030, and closed at 15085, with a decline of 1.63%. NR2512 opened at 12480, reached a high of 12770, a low of 12190, and closed at 12230, with a decline of 2.2%. BR2512 opened at 11100, reached a high of 11155, a low of 10525, and closed at 10585, with a decline of 4.81%. The natural rubber market rose and then fell this week, and the price failed to break through the technical resistance level, with sentiment dominating the trend [3] 2. Spot Market Review - The quoted price of 2023 state - owned whole latex in Shanghai and Yunnan, including 9% tax, is 14800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week. The quoted price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 2050 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from last week. The quoted price of BR9000 in Shanghai is 10925 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from last week [4] 3. Inventory Situation Review - This week, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The subtotal inventory decreased by 1425 tons to 162025 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 3120 tons to 120990 tons [5] 4. Market Structure - The basis strengthened this week due to the decline in futures prices and the rise in spot prices [6] 5. Forecast and Operation Strategy - The price rose and then fell this week without breaking through the technical resistance level. The prices of Thai raw materials rose across the board this week, with a large increase in latex. The operating rate of tire enterprises declined slightly. In terms of tire enterprise inventories, the semi - steel tire inventory remained unchanged, and the all - steel tire inventory decreased. The release of the 14th Five - Year Plan in China and the expected easing of Sino - US trade conflicts drove market sentiment, but the final trade agreement was lower than market expectations, causing financial asset prices to fall. The natural rubber market fluctuated with the market, rising first and then falling. The market was dominated by sentiment last week, and the natural rubber fundamentals remain bullish. The domestic visible inventory continued to decrease, and the operating rate of tire enterprises was at a high level. The price correction this week is not a new downward trend, and a bullish view on the future market is maintained, suggesting to continue holding long positions [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The "15th Five-Year Plan" draft provides future focus directions, and the Sino-US economic and trade consultation has reached a phased consensus, but the long - term game remains. The manufacturing PMI has declined marginally, and the economy needs policy support. Overseas, the Fed has cut interest rates with internal differences, and the market's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is in a tug - of - war around 7.10. Last week, the USD/CNY spot rate showed a V - shaped reversal, and it is expected to trade in the 7.09 - 7.14 range this week [3][4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate mainly due to a dull news environment. Treasury bonds suggest holding medium - term long positions. The container shipping European line is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [7][8][13]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, and copper's 12 - month contract has reached its high. Aluminum is expected to be in high - level fluctuations, and alumina may be in weak fluctuations [18][21][23]. - Zinc is expected to be in narrow - range fluctuations, and nickel and stainless steel are under fundamental pressure. Tin is in high - level fluctuations, and lithium carbonate is expected to be in an oscillating and relatively strong state [26][29][30]. - Industrial silicon is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and polycrystalline silicon has a weak fundamental situation. Lead is expected to be in narrow - range fluctuations [34][35][36]. - Steel products are expected to be in an oscillating adjustment. Iron ore has limited upward space, and coking coal and coke are suitable for long - position allocation in the black sector [37][40][41]. - Ferroalloys are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and weak demand. Crude oil is expected to oscillate in the $60 - 65 range this week [42][46]. - LPG is affected by cost. PX - PTA is expected to be strong and oscillating with the cost, and MEG is expected to be in wide - range fluctuations and maintain a short - position allocation [48][52][55]. - Methanol 01 may continue to decline, and PP and PE are in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be in low - level fluctuations [57][61][64]. - Fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is strengthening. Asphalt's basis is weakening [68][69][72]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - China's October official manufacturing PMI fell to 49, and the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates with internal differences, and Powell's hawkish speech reduced the probability of a December interest - rate cut [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - Last week, the USD/CNY spot rate showed a V - shaped reversal. It is expected to trade in the 7.09 - 7.14 range this week, and the key technical point around 7.10 is the focus of the battle between bulls and bears [3][4]. Stock Index - Last Friday, most stock indexes fell except for the CSI 1000. Short - term news is dull, and it is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [5][7]. Treasury Bonds - Last week, treasury bonds rose significantly. The central bank's stance on supporting monetary policy and resuming secondary - market bond purchases improved market expectations. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [7][8]. Container Shipping European Line - There are both positive and negative factors. The contract price is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the 1800 - 1900 point range. Trend traders can wait, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the spread between EC2512 and EC2602 [10][11][13]. Precious Metals - Last week, precious metals continued to adjust. Although the medium - and long - term prices are expected to rise, the short - term is in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15][16][18]. Copper - The 12 - month contract of copper has reached its high. In November, the market focuses on the 1 - month contract. If the December interest - rate cut expectation increases, there may be an upward impulse [19][21]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is affected by macro - policies and is expected to be in high - level fluctuations. Alumina is in a supply - surplus state and may be in weak fluctuations. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum and is expected to be in high - level fluctuations [23][24][25]. Zinc - Zinc prices are in narrow - range fluctuations. There is an upward drive in November, and it is recommended to wait and see exports and the macro - situation [25][26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The prices of nickel and stainless steel are under fundamental pressure. The 12 - month interest - rate cut expectation is uncertain, and the Sino - US tariff situation is changeable [27][29]. Tin - Tin prices are in high - level fluctuations, mainly affected by the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. It is recommended to go long in the short - term and conduct high - selling and low - buying operations [30]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to be in an oscillating and relatively strong state in the 74000 - 85000 yuan/ton range, affected by supply and demand factors [30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - Industrial silicon is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and polycrystalline silicon has a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to be cautious when investing in polycrystalline silicon [33][34][35]. Lead - Lead prices are in narrow - range fluctuations. It is recommended to use option double - selling strategies to earn option premiums [36]. Steel Products - Steel products are in an oscillating adjustment. The follow - up apparent demand needs to be improved, and it is affected by raw material costs and the macro - environment [37]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is facing a situation of "exhausted macro - benefits and pressured fundamentals". It is recommended to short at high levels after valuation repair [38][39][40]. Coking Coal and Coke - Downstream coking plants and steel mills are actively replenishing inventory. Coking coal and coke are suitable for long - position allocation in the black sector [41]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys are facing the contradiction of high inventory and weak demand. After the macro - sentiment fades, they are expected to oscillate [42]. Crude Oil - Last week, crude oil was in a sideways adjustment. This week, it is expected to oscillate in the $60 - 65 range, and it is difficult to break through [44][46]. LPG - LPG is affected by cost. The domestic fundamental support is relatively limited, and it is mainly affected by the cost side [47][48]. PX - PTA - PTA's price has rebounded due to the "anti - involution" rumor and improved fundamentals. It is expected to be strong and oscillating with the cost, but the surplus expectation remains [49][50][52]. MEG - Bottle Chip - Ethylene glycol's demand has improved marginally, but the valuation is under pressure due to the inventory accumulation expectation. It is recommended to short at high levels [53][54][55]. Methanol - Methanol 01 may continue to decline due to the delay of the Iranian gas - restriction expectation [56][57]. PP - PP is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The supply pressure is difficult to fundamentally relieve, and it is expected to be weak [59][61]. PE - PE is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The supply pressure is large, and the demand support is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - changes [63][64]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to be weak due to the expected inventory accumulation. Styrene has high inventory and de - stocking pressure. It is recommended to short after a rebound [66][67]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is strengthening due to improved fundamentals [68][69]. Asphalt - Asphalt's basis is weakening. The short - term is affected by external disturbances, and the long - term demand in the south may be boosted [70][72].

Group 1: Economic Development and Strategic Planning - The meetings emphasized the importance of aligning with the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, focusing on the key nodes of the "14th Five-Year Plan" completion and the planning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] - The industrial and information technology sector is tasked with monitoring key enterprises and industries, implementing one-on-one support for major industrial projects, and accelerating the integration of "artificial intelligence + manufacturing" [1] - The audit department is to integrate the guiding principles and strategic tasks of the "15th Five-Year Plan" into the entire auditing process, ensuring high-quality audit supervision to support national and regional development [2] Group 2: Regulatory and Governance Enhancements - The market regulation bureau is focusing on aligning its work with the economic and social development goals of the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the construction of a modern industrial system and enhancing market vitality [3] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is prioritizing the deepening of state-owned enterprise reforms and enhancing risk prevention measures while improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth [2] - The Nanning Customs is committed to strengthening border security and facilitating high-quality services for the construction of new cooperation platforms with ASEAN, while also focusing on key projects related to customs inspection and testing systems [3]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies for future economic development in China [4] - There is a significant focus on activating idle assets, with state-owned administrative assets totaling 68.2 trillion yuan and net assets of 55.4 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [3] - The plan encourages a collaborative approach between fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate domestic demand and consumption [10][13] Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The plan advocates for a more proactive macroeconomic policy, which will shape China's fiscal and financial strategies over the next five years [4] - The recent initiative in Anhui to manage "large assets" aims to activate idle government resources, potentially leading to new industries and job creation [6] Group 2: Economic Growth and Development - The focus on "digging potential" from existing assets suggests that there are untapped resources that could contribute to economic growth if effectively utilized [3] - The alignment of fiscal and monetary policies is intended to foster an economy driven by domestic demand, consumption, and endogenous growth [10][13] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The next five years are expected to present both strategic opportunities and risks, but the underlying strengths of China's industrial system, market size, talent pool, and innovation capacity provide a solid foundation for long-term economic development [15]

Core Points - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China approved the "Proposal on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," marking a significant milestone in China's modernization journey [1][3] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to set clear goals for China's development over the next five years, serving as a foundation for achieving socialist modernization by 2035 [3][4] Historical Significance - The session highlights the historical importance of long-term planning in China's economic and social governance, reflecting the evolution from "planning" to "planning" in the context of transitioning to a socialist market economy [2] - China has implemented 14 five-year plans since 1953, which have significantly contributed to economic growth and social stability [2] Practical Significance - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for solidifying the foundation laid during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and addressing complex external challenges [4][7] - The proposal emphasizes the need for high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and comprehensive reforms to enhance the socialist market economy [3][5] Theoretical Value - The session enriches the theoretical framework of Chinese-style modernization, emphasizing the importance of a modern industrial system, technological advancement, and cultural prosperity [6] - The plan connects various strategic elements, such as domestic market strength and international cooperation, to the overarching goal of modernization [6] Global Significance - China's modernization efforts are positioned as a significant contribution to global development, with the potential to influence modernization processes in other developing countries [8][11] - The session's outcomes are expected to enhance China's role in the global economy, providing new opportunities for international cooperation and trade [11]

郑栅洁 习近平总书记指出，科学制定和接续实施五年规划，是我们党治国理政一条重要经验，也是中国特色社会主义一个重要政 治优势。党的二十届四中全会审议通过《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称 《建议》），对未来五年发展做出顶层设计和战略擘画，高屋建瓴、统揽全局、举旗定向、催人奋进，是乘势而上、接续 推进中国式现代化建设的又一次总动员、总部署。国家发展和改革委员会作为宏观管理和经济综合协调部门，将认真学习 贯彻习近平总书记重要讲话精神，全面落实《建议》部署，扎实做好"十五五"规划《纲要》（以下简称《纲要》）编制工 作，持之以恒推动经济社会高质量发展，奋力开创中国式现代化建设新局面。 一、 充分认识"十五五"时期经济社 会发展具备坚实基础 "十四五"时期，以CR450动车组为代表的一项项重大技术装备项目取得新进展、实现新突破。CR450动车组试验速度可达450公里/小时， 运营速度可达400公里/小时，是全球跑得最快的高铁。图为2025年7月9日，在国家铁道试验中心展区拍摄的CR450BF动车组。 新华社记 者 才扬/摄 过去五年，我们始终沿着党中央明确的社会主义现代化建设新征程砥砺 ...