Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to experience verifiable growth, leading to a potential revaluation [1] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 38 times, with an upward potential of 24% based on a target PE of 42 times, resulting in a reasonable market value of 692 billion HKD [6][7] - The company benefits from its monopoly status and integrated clearing platform, which allows it to earn commissions from Average Daily Turnover (ADT) [6][7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections (in million HKD) for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 20,516 (11% growth) - 2024: 22,374 (9% growth) - 2025E: 26,978 (21% growth) - 2026E: 29,020 (8% growth) - 2027E: 29,857 (3% growth) [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million HKD) is forecasted as: - 2023: 11,862 (18% growth) - 2024: 13,050 (10% growth) - 2025E: 16,477 (26% growth) - 2026E: 17,936 (9% growth) - 2027E: 18,775 (5% growth) [4] - Earnings per share (in HKD) are projected to be: - 2023: 9.36 - 2024: 10.29 - 2025E: 13.00 - 2026E: 14.15 - 2027E: 14.81 [4] Valuation Review - The valuation range for the company is estimated between 30 to 70 times PE, with fundamental and liquidity factors being the core drivers [6][19] - The report emphasizes that the company’s growth potential is supported by the increasing market capitalization of new economy sectors, which have risen from 17% in 2018 to 35% in 2025 YTD [6][59] - The report highlights that the ADT is a critical factor influencing the company's profitability, with expectations for ADT to remain robust due to increased connectivity between mainland China and Hong Kong [6][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) is expected to report strong earnings growth in Q2 2025, with a projected year-on-year increase of 31% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [1] - For Q2 2025, total revenue is anticipated to reach HKD 68.7 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 27% and a flat quarter-on-quarter performance, while the main fee income is expected to be HKD 54.8 billion, up 30% year-on-year [1] - The trading activity in spot and commodity markets remains high, while derivatives trading shows a marginal decline; spot trading ADT is projected to be HKD 2,381 billion, a 96% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The IPO market is expected to remain active, with 27 IPOs completed in Q2 2025, raising HKD 884 billion, which is a significant increase of 932% year-on-year [1] - The investment income is projected to grow by 15% year-on-year to HKD 13.9 billion, driven by a favorable interest rate environment and increased margin requirements in a high volatility market [1] - The long-term growth potential for HKEX is supported by the expected increase in daily trading volume, with a projected CAGR of 14% for the next decade, leading to a profit CAGR of 12% [2] Group 3 - The current valuation of HKEX is at 34x/32x P/E for 2025/2026, with a target price of HKD 465, indicating an 11% upside potential [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, highlighting significant liquidity improvements and potential for valuation recovery, particularly in the small and mid-cap sectors [1][5][18]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a notable increase in liquidity, primarily due to the rising proportion of new economy companies and increased participation from southbound funds and retail investors, which now account for approximately 40% of the market [1][3]. - The report anticipates that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) and brokerage sectors will benefit from high market activity and robust earnings support, with IPO financing expected to reach HKD 107 billion in the first half of 2025, a sevenfold increase year-on-year [1][9]. - The potential return of Chinese concept stocks to the Hong Kong market could significantly enhance trading volume and total market capitalization, with estimates suggesting an increase of 17% to 20% [12][18]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to remain active in the second half of 2025, with an increase in the number of listings and trading volume, particularly in the fourth quarter [2][9]. - The market's appeal for new economy assets has been bolstered by reforms at the HKEX and geopolitical factors [2][18]. Liquidity Improvement - The improvement in liquidity is attributed to both asset and funding sides, with a notable increase in the proportion of new economy companies enhancing tradability [3][5]. - The report emphasizes that improved liquidity has led to a revaluation of companies, particularly benefiting small and mid-cap stocks [5][18]. Impact of New Economy Companies - New economy companies have significantly influenced the market, with their market capitalization increasing from 27% in 2015 to over 51% by the end of 2024, and their trading volume now exceeding 70% [16][17]. - These companies are expected to drive higher turnover rates and valuations compared to traditional sectors [17]. Future Growth Potential - The report outlines that the future growth of the Hong Kong stock market will be supported by the influx of new assets and the revaluation of existing companies, driven by domestic enterprises seeking overseas financing and foreign companies returning to avoid geopolitical risks [18][19]. - The HKEX is projected to see substantial profit growth, with estimates suggesting a 31% year-on-year increase in Q2 earnings, reaching HKD 15.4 billion for the year [4][22]. Brokerage Sector Outlook - Key Chinese brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Guotai Junan are expected to benefit significantly from the development of the Hong Kong market due to their strong overseas revenue and competitive edge [4][25]. - The overall outlook for the Chinese brokerage industry is positive, with expected profit growth of nearly 20% for the year [28].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Hong Kong's IPO fundraising exceeded 100 billion in the first half of the year, leading the global market, and the hot IPO market is expected to continue until the end of the year [1] - Various high-quality companies are eager to list in Hong Kong, driven by supportive measures for the capital market and economy introduced by China since last September [1] - The successful completion of large IPOs, such as Midea Group and SF Holding, has encouraged many companies to decide to list in Hong Kong [1] Group 2 - Hong Kong provides not only a financing channel for A-share companies to access international capital markets but also opportunities for US-listed Chinese companies to return to Hong Kong, showcasing its unique advantage as a connector between Chinese and foreign capital markets [2] - Investment focus is suggested on new stock themes such as biotechnology, healthcare, technology, and new consumption, indicating a diversification in Hong Kong's IPO market [2] - The strong demand for refinancing from quality listed companies reflects the gradually recovering confidence of investors in Hong Kong's capital market [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the Hong Kong stock market [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the expected return of Chinese concept stocks and the impact of the "A+H model" on maintaining high Average Daily Turnover (ADT) in the Hong Kong market [4] - It notes that as of May 2025, the total market capitalization of the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 40.93 trillion, reflecting a 5.4% month-over-month increase and a 24% year-over-year increase [4] - The report emphasizes the significant inflow of southbound funds and the recovery of the IPO market, with 10 new IPOs raising HKD 558 million in May 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Chinese Concept Stock Return - Since 2018, 33 Chinese concept stocks have returned to the Hong Kong market, contributing 14% to the total market capitalization and approximately 12% to the ADT [4] - The report identifies 26 potential Chinese concept stocks that could return, estimating an ADT increase of HKD 72 to 96 billion based on their previous performance in the US market [4][5] Market Overview - The report states that the Hong Kong market's ADT has consistently exceeded HKD 2 trillion for four consecutive months, with May 2025's ADT recorded at HKD 2,103 billion, a 23% decrease month-over-month [4][19] - The turnover rate for the Hong Kong market in 2025 year-to-date is 0.59%, compared to 0.37% in 2024 [4] Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on the investment value of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Hong Kong brokers, as the active secondary market and IPO market directly benefit their business [4] - Specific recommendations include companies like CICC H, GF Securities H, CITIC Securities H, and Guotai Junan H [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a resurgence, with an increasing number of Chinese companies considering returning to Hong Kong for listing amid geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since the reform of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing system in 2018, 33 Chinese companies have listed in Hong Kong, accounting for over 70% of the total market capitalization of Chinese companies listed in the U.S. [1] - In the first five months of 2025, the Hong Kong stock market saw 27 IPOs raising a total of HKD 77.346 billion, nearing the total amount raised in the previous year [2][3]. - The average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong securities market for the first five months of 2025 was HKD 2.423 billion, more than double the amount from the same period last year [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is considering relaxing the market capitalization threshold and dual-class share structure restrictions for Chinese companies returning to Hong Kong [1][20]. - The introduction of the "FINI" system aims to shorten the settlement period for new shares from T+5 to T+2, enhancing capital turnover efficiency and attracting more international investors [3]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The return of large Chinese companies to Hong Kong is expected to inject new vitality into the capital market, with concerns about trading activity and stock price suppression being addressed by the exchange's leadership [2][21]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is driving international capital into the Hong Kong stock market, with a year-to-date increase of over 20% in the Hang Seng Index, leading global major stock markets [7][8]. Group 4: A+H Listing Model - The A+H listing model is gaining traction among Chinese companies seeking overseas financing platforms to support international expansion plans [23]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced measures to facilitate the overseas listing process for mainland companies, reducing compliance costs and time [4][5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is committed to continuously reviewing its listing rules to better serve the needs of companies and adapt to market demands [19][20]. - The exchange's leadership emphasizes the importance of maintaining liquidity and attracting quality companies to ensure a robust market environment [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The trend of mainland companies listing in Hong Kong continues to grow, with significant increases in both the number of IPOs and the amount of capital raised in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Market Overview - In the first half of the year, mainland companies accounted for 95% of the total number of IPOs and 96.7% of the total capital raised in the Hong Kong market [1]. - The number of companies listed in Hong Kong and the amount of capital raised increased by 33% and 711%, respectively, compared to the previous year [1]. - Over 50 A-share companies have announced plans to list in Hong Kong, indicating a strong interest in the market [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The "new consumption + hard technology" sectors are emerging as new engines for the Hong Kong stock market [2]. - The biotechnology and health, retail, and consumer sectors had the highest number of IPOs in the first half of the year, with significant interest in niche markets like trendy toys and new-style tea drinks [2]. - The report anticipates more large enterprises and industry leaders will enter the Hong Kong market, with an increasing proportion of IPOs from new consumption and hard technology companies [2]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The current growth lines in the Hong Kong market are technology and new consumption, with investment opportunities identified in AI, smart driving, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [3]. - The launch of the "Tech Company Fast Track" by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange aims to facilitate the listing of specialized technology and biotech companies, enhancing the market's appeal [3][4]. - The "H+A" listing model is expected to connect the capital markets of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, providing new growth opportunities for both A-share and Hong Kong-listed companies [4][6]. Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - The "H+A" policy implementation faces challenges such as regulatory alignment, valuation differences, and information disclosure requirements [6]. - Companies listed in both markets must adapt to different regulatory standards, which may complicate their operations [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong government is actively seeking to attract more leading mainland enterprises to raise funds in Hong Kong, supporting their international development and welcoming the return of more Chinese concept stocks [1] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The Hong Kong government plans to improve approval processes and optimize the dual primary listing and secondary listing thresholds, including reviewing market structures and considering establishing an over-the-counter trading mechanism for delisted companies [1] - The revised dual primary listing and secondary listing system may relax restrictions on market capitalization, industry attributes, and compliance duration [1][2] - As of June 11, there are 59 U.S.-listed Chinese concept stocks with a market capitalization exceeding $1 billion, of which 29 are not yet listed in Hong Kong [1][4] Group 2: Dual-Class Share Structures - Many of the 29 companies not yet listed in Hong Kong adopt a dual-class share structure, which allows different voting rights for shareholders [2][3] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has allowed companies with dual-class share structures to list, provided they meet certain market capitalization and financial criteria [2][3] - Notable companies like Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan have successfully listed on the HKEX under this structure since the 2018 reforms [3] Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - Current popular Chinese concept stocks with special voting rights structures, such as Huya, Hesai Technology, and WeRide, do not meet the current HKEX listing requirements [5] - There is ongoing discussion about whether the HKEX will further relax restrictions on dual-class share structures, with industry experts suggesting that the urgency for such changes may not be high at this moment [5] - Suggestions for future regulatory adjustments include balancing the attraction of Chinese concept stocks with investor protection, potentially through phased relaxations of dual-class share structure restrictions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong SAR government is actively seeking to attract more leading mainland enterprises to raise funds in Hong Kong to support their international development and is also welcoming more Chinese concept stocks to return [1] Group 1 - The Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong SAR, Paul Chan, emphasized the importance of attracting mainland enterprises for fundraising [1] - The initiative aims to support these enterprises in their international expansion efforts [1] - There is a specific focus on encouraging the return of Chinese concept stocks to the Hong Kong market [1]

Market Overview - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets experienced a rebound in the first week of June, with the Every Day Brand 100 Index rising by 1.3% to close at 1077 points, aiming for the 1100-point mark [1][2] - The three major A-share indices all saw weekly gains of over 1%, with 60 out of 99 constituent stocks rising, indicating a broad-based rally [2] Key Stock Performances - Notable performers included CITIC Bank and Trina Solar, both of which saw weekly gains exceeding 5%, while other companies like Jiangxi Copper, China Life, NetEase, Pinduoduo, Xiaomi Group, and Industrial Bank also recorded gains above 4% [2][3] - Tencent Holdings led the market with a market value increase of 154.46 billion yuan, being the only stock in the Every Day Brand 100 Index to surpass a 100 billion yuan increase in market value for the week [4] Economic Indicators - China's Caixin Services PMI for May was reported at 51.1%, a 0.4 percentage point increase from April, while the composite PMI fell to 49.6%, indicating a contraction for the first time in 2023 [4] - The U.S. job growth slowed in May but was better than expected, alleviating concerns about a U.S. economic slowdown and boosting investor sentiment [4] Company-Specific Developments - CITIC Bank announced the approval to establish a financial asset investment company with a registered capital of 10 billion yuan, which will allow it to invest in early-stage technology companies [5][6] - Trina Solar hosted a research meeting with 58 institutions, projecting that global demand for photovoltaic modules will exceed 660 GW by 2025, driven by energy transition and technological advancements [7] Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong stock market has outperformed the A-share market this year, making it an attractive option for investors, especially with the potential return of Chinese concept stocks to Hong Kong [8] - The China Overseas Internet 50 Index, which tracks 50 Chinese internet companies listed overseas, reflects the investment opportunities in this sector, with major stocks like Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi being significant components [11][12]