Market Performance - A-shares continued to rise significantly this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.03% to 3455.97 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index up 1.41%, the ChiNext Index up 2.07%, the STAR Market 50 Index up 1.73%, and the Northbound 50 Index up 1.38% [1] - Total trading volume in the A-share market reached 16,395 billion yuan, an increase from 14,482 billion yuan the previous day [1] - Strong performance was noted in sectors such as brokerage stocks, shipbuilding, aerospace, software development, internet services, and semiconductors, while sectors like mining, oil and gas, and port shipping showed weaker performance [1] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The central bank conducted a 300 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation with a one-year term, resulting in a net injection of 118 billion yuan after accounting for 182 billion yuan maturing in June [1] - The central bank's proactive stance in injecting liquidity is considered a contributing factor to the strong performance of A-shares [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent testimony indicated a hawkish tone, suggesting that inflation in the U.S. is expected to rise due to tariffs, which may influence interest rate decisions [2] Consumer Support Measures - A joint announcement from six government departments, including the central bank and the Ministry of Finance, outlined 19 specific measures to support and expand consumption, aiming to enhance the foundational role of consumption in economic development [2] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The easing of tensions in the Middle East is seen as a direct support for risk assets, including stocks, and may indirectly benefit the RMB exchange rate, potentially attracting more foreign investment into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] - The recent increase in trading volume over two consecutive days suggests that the recent rise in A-shares may have better sustainability compared to previous rebounds, with a recommendation for investors to hold stocks for potential gains [2] - If trading volume remains above 1.5 trillion yuan, the rebound in A-shares could evolve into a reversal [2] Earnings Reports - As the half-year reporting period approaches, investors are advised to focus on the operational outlook of listed companies while being cautious of short-term earnings risks [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is influencing global capital markets and the Chinese yuan's exchange rate, with a significant probability of the yuan breaking the 7 mark [1][2] - The probability of the yuan breaking the 7 mark is assessed at around 50% in the short term, with potential fluctuations between 6.9 and 7.2 [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is expected to weaken the dollar, potentially leading to the dollar-yuan exchange rate dropping to the 6.9-7.0 range if a cumulative cut of 100 basis points occurs [4] Group 2 - Factors supporting the yuan breaking the 7 mark include the U.S. economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions, while factors that may prevent it include China's economic resilience and policy tools available to the central bank [4] - The current interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is -2.57%, which may narrow to -1.5% if the Fed cuts rates while China maintains its rates, alleviating depreciation pressure on the yuan [4] - Chinese exports have shown resilience, with a 9.3% growth in exports to Belt and Road countries in 2024, indicating a strong economic foundation [4] Group 3 - Export companies are advised to consider their decision-making based on order cycles and product value, with different strategies for short-term low-value products versus long-term high-value products [3][5] - Recommendations for companies include a phased approach to locking in exchange rates, with a suggestion to lock 50%-70% of the order value while remaining flexible for the rest [5] - Companies are encouraged to adopt proactive currency management strategies, such as contract design for exchange rate adjustments and shortening payment cycles to mitigate exposure [7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut cycle, with predictions of four cuts starting in March, potentially lowering the inflation rate to the target of 2% [3][4] - Historical context shows that previous rate cut cycles were closely linked to economic conditions, such as the 2008 financial crisis, where the Fed reduced rates from 5.25% to a range of 0-0.25% [3][4] Group 2: Global Monetary Policy Divergence - The European Central Bank has recently cut key interest rates for the first time since 2019, while the Bank of Japan maintains an ultra-loose monetary policy [4][5] - Emerging economies are experiencing a mix of rate hikes and moderate easing, reflecting their unique economic challenges [4][5] Group 3: Impact on China's Economy - The anticipated Fed rate cuts may lead to a depreciation of the dollar, easing pressures on the Chinese yuan and allowing for greater flexibility in China's monetary policy [6][7] - A potential appreciation of the yuan could enhance the competitiveness of Chinese exports while lowering import costs, although it may pressure export-oriented companies [7][8] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in China - The influx of international capital into China due to lower yields on dollar assets can enhance market liquidity and lower financing costs for domestic enterprises [9][10] - The bond market may see increased attractiveness as global yields decline, although rising inflation expectations could pose challenges [10] - Sectors such as renewable energy and semiconductors may benefit from lower financing costs, while traditional industries will need to innovate to remain competitive [11]

Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD has led to an increase in outbound travel bookings, particularly for long-haul trips to Europe, with prices rising approximately 20% compared to last summer [1] - The cost of European travel packages has significantly increased, with a specific example showing a price rise from approximately 16,000 yuan to 19,000 yuan for a France-Switzerland-Italy tour, marking an increase of about 18.8% [2] - Customized travel packages have seen even larger price increases, with one traveler noting that her budget of 35,000 to 38,000 yuan for a trip to the UK was insufficient, as current prices exceed 50,000 yuan for similar itineraries [2] Group 2 - Short-haul trips to nearby countries have remained relatively stable in pricing, with some travel agencies opting not to raise prices despite currency fluctuations, focusing instead on maintaining competitive pricing [3] - Travelers are increasingly choosing cost-effective destinations such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, while also seeking budget-friendly accommodations and dining options to optimize their travel expenses [3] - New routes and increased flight availability to emerging destinations like the Caucasus and Central Asia have resulted in a slight price decrease of about 5% for travel packages to these areas compared to last year [3]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a downturn, with the ChiNext index dropping nearly 1% and over 4,100 stocks declining, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors [2] - The military industry sector is showing a "V-shaped reversal," with companies like Chengfei Integration and Lijun Co. hitting the daily limit up, driven by expectations of order surges before the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - The textile manufacturing sector is gaining momentum, with Wanshili hitting the daily limit up, attributed to currency fluctuations, Southeast Asian order returns, and the rise of domestic brands [2] Group 2 - Bank stocks are strengthening, led by city commercial banks like Qingdao Bank, as investors seek safe havens amid uncertainty, suggesting a valuation recovery rather than strong growth [2] - The semiconductor and robotics sectors are facing adjustments, with companies like Huahong and Dongtu Technology experiencing significant declines, indicating selective investment behavior in the tech sector [3] - The current market environment is seen as a test for portfolio quality, with recommendations to maintain a position of no more than 60% and focus on companies with strong mid-term performance indicators [3]

Group 1 - Ukrainian President Zelensky rejected Russian President Putin's proposal for a 72-hour ceasefire from May 8 to 10, insisting on a minimum 30-day ceasefire instead [1] - Zelensky stated that an unconditional ceasefire is a model proposed by the United States, which Ukraine intends to follow [1] - Putin announced a ceasefire during the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory in World War II, emphasizing that military actions should cease during this period [1] Group 2 - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that in the past week, Russian forces targeted Ukrainian military enterprises, electronic intelligence bases, and ammunition depots [3] - Ukrainian armed forces engaged in over 100 battles with Russian troops, with the most intense fighting occurring in the Pokrovsk direction [3] - Ukrainian forces conducted a drone attack on a Russian military airport located in Crimea [3]

Core Viewpoint - The depreciation of the RMB is under significant pressure due to the ongoing US-China trade war and Federal Reserve policies, marking the largest strain since the 2008 financial crisis [1][4]. Impact on Import Costs - The depreciation of the RMB against the USD directly increases the import costs of commodities such as oil and iron ore, with a 1% depreciation leading to a cost increase of 0.8-1.2% [4]. - In 2024, China's reliance on foreign oil is projected to reach 73%, resulting in a 15% year-on-year increase in procurement costs for energy companies, which will compress profit margins in sectors like petrochemicals and aviation [4]. - High-tech product imports, including chips and precision instruments, will also see a cost increase, with companies like SMIC facing a 12% rise in procurement costs for technical equipment [4]. Inflationary Pressures - The depreciation of the RMB is expected to cause the food and consumer goods import price index to rise by 6.3%, with essential items like beef and milk powder experiencing price increases of up to 9.8% [5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China is projected to rise by 3.5% year-on-year in 2024, exceeding the central bank's 3% warning line, complicating monetary policy balancing between growth and inflation control [6]. Debt Implications - The depreciation of the RMB increases the repayment costs for companies and local governments with foreign debt, with a 5% depreciation translating to an additional $140 billion in debt servicing costs for the $2.8 trillion foreign debt [8][9]. - Real estate companies, such as Country Garden and Vanke, are particularly affected, with the proportion of dollar-denominated debt interest payments rising from 12% to 19%, exacerbating cash flow challenges [9]. Capital Outflow Risks - Continuous RMB depreciation poses risks of capital outflow, as foreign investment may decline and domestic capital may seek higher returns in USD-denominated assets, especially given the current high US Federal Reserve interest rates [10]. Export Dynamics - While RMB depreciation theoretically enhances export competitiveness, it may lead to a reliance on low-end manufacturing, with high-tech product export share declining by 2.3 percentage points to 28.7% in 2024 [11]. - The withdrawal of foreign R&D centers and a shift in investment towards Southeast Asia by companies like BMW and Tesla indicate a potential decline in foreign investment attractiveness due to currency volatility [11]. Structural Changes and Future Outlook - Historical trends suggest that significant currency adjustments often accompany industrial upgrades, and the current low point of the RMB may represent a pivotal moment for China to advance beyond the middle-income trap and into higher value chains [12]. - Short-term challenges are anticipated as the economy adjusts to these changes, necessitating innovation and a robust domestic supply chain to enhance resilience against external shocks [12][13].

创业板投资风险提示 本次股票发行后拟在创业板市场上市，该市场具有较高的投资风险。创业板公 司具有创新投入大、新旧产业融合成功与否存在不确定性、尚处于成长期、经 营风险高、业绩不稳定、退市风险高等特点，投资者面临较大的市场风险。投 资者应充分了解创业板市场的投资风险及本公司所披露的风险因素，审慎作出 投资决定。 中集安瑞环科技股份有限公司 CIMC Safeway Technologies Co., Ltd. （江苏省南通市城港路 159 号） 保荐人（主承销商） （广东省深圳市福田区中心三路 8 号卓越时代广场（二期）北座） 联席主承销商 （新疆乌鲁木齐市高新区（新市区）北京南路 358 号大成国际大厦 20 楼 2004 室） 中集安瑞环科技股份有限公司 招股说明书 声明 中国证监会、交易所对本次发行所作的任何决定或意见，均不表明其对发行 人注册申请文件及所披露信息的真实性、准确性、完整性作出保证，也不表明其 对发行人的盈利能力、投资价值或者对投资者的收益作出实质性判断或保证。任 何与之相反的声明均属虚假不实陈述。 根据《证券法》规定，股票依法发行后，发行人经营与收益的变化，由发行 人自行负责；投资者自主判 ...