本报记者 刘萌 12月19日，商务部消费促进司负责人谈2025年11月我国消费市场情况时表示，11月份，社会消费品零售总额4.39万亿元， 同比（下同）增长1.3%。1-11月份，社会消费品零售总额45.6万亿元，增长4.0%，累计增速快于去年同期0.5个百分点。 三是新型消费需求旺盛。1-11月份，网络零售额增长9.1%，其中实物商品网上零售额增长5.7%。据商务部商务大数据，11 月份，重点监测平台运动相机、具身智能机器人、一级能效电视销量增长均超20%。据汽车流通协会数据，11月份新能源乘用 车渗透率达59.3%。 四是乡村消费快于城镇。县域商业体系不断健全，下沉市场消费潜力加速释放。1-11月份，乡村消费品零售额增长4.4%， 增速比城镇快0.5个百分点；11月份，乡村消费品零售额增长2.8%，增速比城镇快1.8个百分点。 （编辑 黄力） 一是商品消费保持平稳。11月份，商品零售额增长1.0%。基本生活类商品销售平稳增长，其中限额以上单位粮油食品、服 装鞋帽零售额分别增长6.1%和3.5%。部分升级类商品销售较快增长，其中金银珠宝、化妆品零售额分别增长8.5%和6.1%。以 旧换新相关品类快速增长，其 ...

三是新型消费需求旺盛。1-11月份，网络零售额增长9.1%，其中实物商品网上零售额增长5.7%。据商务 部商务大数据，11月份，重点监测平台运动相机、具身智能机器人、一级能效电视销量增长均超20%。 据汽车流通协会数据，11月份新能源乘用车渗透率达59.3%。 四是乡村消费快于城镇。县域商业体系不断健全，下沉市场消费潜力加速释放。1-11月份，乡村消费品 零售额增长4.4%，增速比城镇快0.5个百分点；11月份，乡村消费品零售额增长2.8%，增速比城镇快1.8 个百分点。 本文编选自"商务部"官网，智通财经编辑：冯秋怡。 智通财经APP获悉，12月19日，据商务部消息，商务部消费促进司负责人谈2025年11月我国消费市场情 况。11月份，社会消费品零售总额4.39万亿元，同比(下同)增长1.3%。1-11月份，社会消费品零售总额 45.6万亿元，增长4.0%，累计增速快于去年同期0.5个百分点。 一是商品消费保持平稳。11月份，商品零售额增长1.0%。基本生活类商品销售平稳增长，其中限额以 上单位粮油食品、服装鞋帽零售额分别增长6.1%和3.5%。部分升级类商品销售较快增长，其中金银珠 宝、化妆品零售额分别增 ...

三是新型消费需求旺盛。1-11月份，网络零售额增长9.1%，其中实物商品网上零售额增长5.7%。据商务 部商务大数据，11月份，重点监测平台运动相机、具身智能机器人、一级能效电视销量增长均超20%。 据汽车流通协会数据，11月份新能源乘用车渗透率达59.3%。 四是乡村消费快于城镇。县域商业体系不断健全，下沉市场消费潜力加速释放。1-11月份，乡村消费品 零售额增长4.4%，增速比城镇快0.5个百分点；11月份，乡村消费品零售额增长2.8%，增速比城镇快1.8 个百分点。 11月份，社会消费品零售总额4.39万亿元，同比(下同)增长1.3%。1-11月份，社会消费品零售总额45.6 万亿元，增长4.0%，累计增速快于去年同期0.5个百分点。 一是商品消费保持平稳。11月份，商品零售额增长1.0%。基本生活类商品销售平稳增长，其中限额以 上单位粮油食品、服装鞋帽零售额分别增长6.1%和3.5%。部分升级类商品销售较快增长，其中金银珠 宝、化妆品零售额分别增长8.5%和6.1%。以旧换新相关品类快速增长，其中通讯器材、文化办公用品 零售额分别增长20.6%和11.7%。 二是服务消费较快增长。1-11月份，服务零 ...

随着消费品以旧换新政策持续发力显效，废旧家电家具如何回收、处置受到越来越多人关注。记者 近日走访广东、广西、湖北、浙江等地发现，除了生产企业和消费平台的售新收旧，废旧家电家具的回 收、处置体系也日益完善，对于释放家电家具消费潜力，畅通再生资源循环利用发挥了积极作用。 回收网点更密集 在位于广东广州番禺区的超大型社区祈福新村，一处可回收物交售点内，不时有居民将废纸箱、塑 料和废旧家电送来有偿回收。 这是今年初社区上新的3个交售点之一。所属企业由当地多部门联合引入，形成了"企业驻场运营— 物业提供场地—社区定期宣传"的模式。企业负责人林先生说："现在交售点日均回收量稳定，居民对规 范、透明的回收方式非常认可。" 记者走访发现，像这样的"家门口"稳定回收网点，在各地逐渐增多。 广西商务厅数据显示，在全国再生资源回收体系建设试点城市梧州、柳州，再生资源回收网点数量 均达700个以上，数量明显提升。在湖北武汉，截至2024年底，已累计建成规范化社区回收网点2320 个。在浙江杭州，当地按照"城区1000户设1个回收网点，农村2000户设1个回收网点，3个乡镇街道设1 个分拣中心"布局，截至2024年底，累计提升建设分拣 ...

扩大产品供给 围绕金融促消费，丰富消费金融产品和服务，增强消费金融服务的适配性和便利度是此次《方案》的亮 点之一。 近日，《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》(以下简称《方案》)提出，强化财政 金融支持。丰富消费金融产品和服务，增强消费金融服务的适配性和便利度。消费金融的快速发展与消 费市场需求高度契合。通过提供灵活多样的金融产品，消费金融有效降低了消费者的购买门槛，使更多 优质产品能够触达目标消费群体。 政策接续发力 消费金融作为连接消费需求与金融供给的关键纽带，是激发消费活力、有效提振内需的重要力量。 苏商银行特约研究员薛洪言认为，首先，消费金融能够降低消费门槛，将潜在需求转化为实际购买力， 帮助更多消费者获取优质产品与服务。其次，通过灵活的分期和信贷方式，消费金融释放了消费潜力， 使消费者得以提前提升生活品质。最后，消费金融促进了供需适配，作为连接生产与消费的桥梁，消费 金融助力实现以消费升级引领产业升级的政策目标。总的来看，消费金融已超越传统借贷功能，成为推 动供需对接、激活内需的重要金融力量。 今年以来，金融管理部门多次召开金融机构座谈会，引导金融机构充分满足实体经济有效信贷需求，尤 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025-12-18 China Fiscal Policy Outlook: Moderate Expandsion? 中国财政政策展望：如何理解适度扩张 | 甘 青 | Gan | Qing | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F03124127 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0023461 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 程小庆 | | | Cheng Xiaoqing 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3083989 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0018635 | | 张菁 | Zhang Jing | | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3022617 | 投资咨询号 Consulting ...

Core Insights - The central theme of the articles revolves around the impact of the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement subsidy policy and the upcoming changes in the new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase tax policy in China, particularly in 2026 [1][3][11]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy in Beijing has been suspended, but the central government has indicated that the policy will continue in 2026 with further optimization [1][4][11]. - The NEV purchase tax exemption is set to expire soon, transitioning to a 50% reduction, which will increase the cost for consumers [3][9]. - The suspension of local subsidies has led to a decline in consumer enthusiasm, although interest has started to recover as the year-end approaches [4][6]. Consumer Behavior - Two main groups of consumers are currently in a state of "wait-and-see": those interested in locking in orders for models with tax guarantees and those waiting for the specifics of the new subsidy policy [7][12]. - The demand for vehicle replacements has diminished as many potential buyers have already made purchases during the subsidy period, leaving only those with less urgent needs [6][10]. Sales Performance - Recent data indicates a significant decline in vehicle sales, with a 32% year-on-year drop in retail sales during the first week of December [9][10]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations that the upcoming policy changes may lead to further fluctuations in demand [11][13]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the subsidy levels for the "old-for-new" policy in 2026 will likely be reduced, which could impact market growth [11][12]. - Despite the anticipated challenges, the overall vehicle market is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory due to ongoing improvements in NEV technology and competitive pricing [13].

今年以来，日照市商务局会同发改、财政等部门分别制定汽车报废更新、置换更新，以及家电、 3C、电动自行车、家装厨卫等6类商品以旧换新实施细则，推进消费品以旧换新工作。日照市商务局先 后组织6批共计801家企业参与消费品以旧换新工作。1-11月份，全市汽车报废更新销售1.39万台，汽车 置换更新销售1.18万台，家电以旧换新销售28.44万件，3C数码产品购新销售17.04万件，家装厨卫换新 销售1.09万件，电动自行车以旧换新销售6.29万件，申请补贴资金共计6.57亿元，真金白银的政策红利 直接撬动消费市场扩容升级。 在以旧换新政策发力的同时，日照同步打出促消费 "组合拳"，创新"票根经济"模式成为消费增长 新亮点。组织实施"日照贵客、驾到有礼"等活动，以票根为纽带促进多业态联动，先后组织、发动150 余家零售、住宿、餐饮企业参与2025大学生沙滩音乐节、2025中国运动休闲大会等票根经济活动，拉动 消费增长5600余万元。（记者 丁兆霞） 12月11日，日照市政府新闻办举行"聚力服务 赋能发展"日照市商务局助企惠企工作新闻发布会， 通报了全市消费品以旧换新等助企惠民政策落地成效。数据显示，1-11月，日照以 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the heavy truck industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in November, domestic heavy truck sales reached 113,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 65% and a month-on-month increase of 7%. The cumulative sales from January to November reached 1.041 million units, up 27% year-on-year [2][4]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in heavy truck sales due to the economic recovery and the introduction of the "old-for-new" policy in 2025, projecting sales of 1.117 million units for 2025, a 24% increase year-on-year [4]. - The report emphasizes the growing penetration of new energy heavy trucks, expecting the penetration rate to reach 18% by 2025, driven by technological advancements and cost reductions [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In November, the sales structure of heavy trucks showed that semi-trailer trucks accounted for 51.7%, cargo trucks for 27.0%, and non-complete vehicles for 21.2%. The sales of semi-trailer trucks reached 62,000 units, up 85% year-on-year, while heavy cargo truck sales were 29,000 units, up 61% year-on-year [4]. - The report notes that the sales of domestic natural gas heavy trucks in November were 19,000 units, a significant increase of 154% year-on-year, although it saw a month-on-month decline of 12% [4]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the heavy truck market's high prosperity in November is attributed to the tail effect of the "old-for-new" policy and the continuation of the traditional peak season for heavy trucks [4]. - The report also highlights that the penetration rate of natural gas in heavy trucks was 17% in November, with expectations for further growth due to the economic advantages of natural gas vehicles for high-mileage operations [4]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, CIMC Vehicles, Foton Motor, and FAW Jiefang, based on their growth potential and market positioning [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the effectiveness of proactive fiscal policies in 2025, which have supported major national strategies, expanded domestic demand, stabilized growth, and improved people's livelihoods. It anticipates continued expansionary fiscal policies in 2026, focusing on both material and human investments [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Effectiveness - In 2025, proactive fiscal policies significantly supported major national strategies, with 800 billion yuan allocated for "two重" construction and 1,880 billion yuan for equipment upgrades, leading to a 10.7% year-on-year increase in machinery and equipment purchases from January to November [1]. - Increased spending in the livelihood sector was noted, with sales in supported retail sectors growing by 26.5% and 20.3% year-on-year, respectively, from January to November [1]. - Over 70% of national fiscal spending since the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan" has been directed towards improving people's livelihoods, according to the Minister of Finance [1]. Group 2: Investment in People and Material - Fiscal policies in 2025 met expectations in material investments, while policies aimed at human investments, such as childcare subsidies and free preschool education, contributed to high-quality population development [2]. - The combination of material and human investments is seen as essential for high-quality development and improving residents' living standards, creating a virtuous cycle of new demand and supply [2]. Group 3: Future Policy Directions - The Ministry of Finance plans to optimize spending structures and enhance financial support for major national strategies, focusing on increasing funding for human investments and expanding domestic demand [3][4]. - Policies supporting "two重" and "two新" will continue, with an emphasis on utilizing government bond funds and increasing central budget investments to stabilize and boost investment [5]. - Experts suggest that optimizing project reserves and expanding the fiscal "toolbox" will enhance the effectiveness of material investment policies [5][6].