2026 年春节零售市场数据点评 2026 年春节假期期间，零售消费需求整体保持修复，9 天假期安排叠加中央与地 方促消费政策工具，对节前采购与假期消费形成阶段性支撑，线下商圈活跃度回升， 部分节日属性品类及以旧换新相关品类表现较好。需要关注的是，春节数据具有季节 性与政策扰动特征，展望后续，零售行业景气度的持续改善更取决于宏观层面居民收 入与就业预期修复、财政促消费与结构性补贴政策的延续力度及投放节奏、居民资产 负债表与消费信心变化的影响。在上述条件边际改善的情形下，叠加新业态渗透率提 升与供给侧服务能力优化，零售行业需求有望延续温和修复。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 联合资信 工商评级一部 一、春节期间零售业运行情况 2026 年春节假期期间，消费需求保持修复。分业态看，线下实体零售增幅显著， 重点商圈客流量和营业额同比提升；即时零售订单同比增幅较快，成为线上消费增长 的主要驱动因素。从消费品类看，金银珠宝、食品、服饰等节日属性品类，以及在以 旧换新政策带动下的通信器材等品类增速较高；受消费习惯变化影响，礼赠型高端烟 酒需求相对偏弱，智能、绿色、健康类商品消费增长。 2026 年春节 ...

Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival consumption market shows a clear shift from functional satisfaction to a focus on "meaning and value," with a notable increase in both rational and emotional spending [1][20] - Daily sales revenue in consumption-related industries increased by 13.7% year-on-year, with significant growth in sectors such as cultural tourism, dining, and smart green consumption [1][26] - The "old-for-new" policy benefited 27.56 million people, indicating a new growth point in the market for smart and green products [1][17] Group 1: Consumption Trends - The report identifies 12 core trends in Spring Festival consumption, reflecting deep changes in the market, including the emergence of a new "reunion economy" and the rise of the Z generation as the main decision-makers in family consumption [2][28] - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing emotional healing and satisfaction over mere functionality, with "heart-price ratio" becoming a key consideration [11][12] - Local culture is becoming a new engine for consumption, with traditional experiences and local specialties gaining popularity among younger consumers [13][14] Group 2: Service and Retail Dynamics - Service consumption has seen explosive growth, with consumers willing to pay for time-saving and immediate gratification services, indicating a shift from buying products to buying time [19][20] - Instant retail is replacing traditional bulk purchasing for the Spring Festival, aligning with rational consumption trends [2][28] - The demand for pet-related services has surged, with pets becoming integral to family celebrations, reflecting a broader trend of emotional consumption [19][20] Group 3: Policy and Economic Impact - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly impacted consumer behavior, with a total sales volume of 193.09 billion yuan generated from this initiative, particularly in the automotive sector [17][27] - The overall consumption landscape is evolving, with a focus on quality upgrades and green products, driven by consumer awareness and policy support [15][17] - The Spring Festival period has highlighted the importance of understanding new consumption paradigms, emphasizing emotional fulfillment and real value over mere traffic competition [3][20]

Group 1: Overseas Economic and Policy Environment - The US economy faces stagflation risks, with Q4 2025 GDP growth below expectations due to government shutdown impacts[13] - Non-farm employment data showed unexpected rebound, but the unemployment rate remains a concern as it may adjust after March[14] - The Eurozone is experiencing weak recovery, with February manufacturing PMI entering expansion territory for the first time since mid-2025[21] Group 2: Domestic Economic Performance - During the Spring Festival, national consumption-related industries saw a daily average sales increase of 13.7% compared to last year[30] - Smart products like smart glasses and intelligent robots saw sales growth of 47.3% and 32.7% respectively during the holiday[30] - Manufacturing investment growth is expected to be strong, with key product operating rates exceeding January averages[38] Group 3: Domestic Policy Environment - The central bank's monetary policy remains cautious, focusing on structural tools to support key sectors while maintaining liquidity stability[5] - Fiscal policy is actively supporting economic stability, with over 1.5 trillion yuan in new local special bonds issued by February 26, 2026[46] - The government is expected to prioritize spending on technology innovation and social welfare in the first quarter[46] Group 4: Risks and Outlook - Geopolitical risks and unexpected economic changes pose significant threats to domestic economic stability[6] - Inflation concerns are rising, with the Fed's rate cut window likely closed in the first half of 2026, impacting future monetary policy decisions[15]

蔡彤娟（中国人民大学重阳金融研究院副院长、研究员） 智能产品成为年货新宠。在625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新政策带动下，截至2月23日， 2026年消费品以旧换新惠及3112.7万人次，带动销售额2070.3亿元。汽车以旧换新61.2万辆，带动新车 销售额1005.3亿元。商务大数据显示，今年春节假期，重点平台智能眼镜、具身智能机器人销售额较去 年春节假期分别增长47.3%和32.7%，节水卫浴器具、有机食品分别增长23.2%和26.5%。 2026年马年春节，中国消费市场呈现出"马力全开"的强劲态势。作为"史上最长春节假期"（除夕前一天 即开始放假，共9天），叠加多项促消费政策持续发力，居民消费意愿明显增强，消费结构持续优化， 展现出从物质满足向精神体验、从传统实物向智能健康、从单一购物向多元场景转变的鲜明特征。 2026年春节消费热度从支付数据可见一斑。据中国人民银行披露，除夕当天（2月16日）银联、网联两 大支付清算平台共处理支付交易49.31亿笔，较2025年除夕同比增长21.64%。这一增速显著高于2026年1 月移动支付商品消费交易笔数16.8%的同比增幅，表明长假效应极大激发了即时消费 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese consumer market experienced a strong start during the Spring Festival holiday, with significant increases in both sales and foot traffic, reflecting a vibrant festive atmosphere [1] - Key data points include over 2.8 billion trips taken, 4.35 million events held, and a 5.7% increase in sales compared to the previous year [1] Transportation and Travel - A total of 2.65 billion trips were made by road, with 86% being self-driving, averaging nearly 270 million trips per day [3] - The railway system transported 121 million passengers, marking an 11.5% increase year-on-year, with all transportation modes seeing substantial growth [4] - Daily package deliveries reached nearly 200 million, with 9.5 million tons of goods transported by rail [4] Entertainment and Cinema - The Spring Festival film season, lasting from February 15 to February 23, set a record with 4.35 million screenings, generating a box office of 5.752 billion yuan and attracting 120 million viewers [7] - Average ticket prices dropped to 47.8 yuan, a decrease of 3 yuan or 6% from the previous year, marking a six-year low [10] - Third and fourth-tier cities contributed 54% of the box office, the highest proportion recorded [12] Tourism and Spending - During the nine-day holiday, domestic travel reached 596 million trips, an increase of 95 million from the previous year, with total spending amounting to 803.48 billion yuan, up 126.48 billion yuan [21] - Intra-provincial travel accounted for over 50% of trips, while inter-provincial travel saw a daily increase of 6.8% compared to the previous year [23][24] - The average stay duration for tourists increased by 21.6% in cities rich in traditional cultural experiences [24] Consumer Market Performance - Key retail and catering enterprises reported a 5.7% increase in daily sales compared to the previous year, with foot traffic and sales in monitored shopping districts rising by 6.7% and 7.5%, respectively [28] - The "old for new" consumption initiative benefited 31.127 million people, generating sales of 207.03 billion yuan [29] - Notable sales growth was observed in smart glasses (47.3%) and smart robots (32.7%), along with significant increases in water-saving sanitary ware (23.2%) and organic food (26.5%) [29] International Tourism - The Spring Festival attracted tourists from over 160 countries and regions, with significant increases in visitors from Sweden, Italy, Malaysia, and France, all exceeding 30% [32] - The volume of inbound tourism orders rose by 18.4% compared to the previous year, indicating a growing trend of foreign visitors celebrating the Spring Festival in China [32] Expert Analysis - Experts attribute the record-breaking performance of the cultural and tourism market to a combination of strong demand and effective supply-side strategies, including optimized product offerings and targeted promotional activities [36]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful implementation of the "Happy Shopping Spring Festival" campaign by local commerce departments, which has significantly boosted consumer spending during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday compared to 2025. Group 1: Sales Performance - During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide increased by 5.7% compared to the 2025 Spring Festival holiday, with the growth rate accelerating by 1.6 percentage points [1] - The foot traffic and revenue in 78 monitored pedestrian streets (business districts) increased by 6.7% and 7.5% respectively compared to the previous year's Spring Festival holiday [1] Group 2: Consumer Demand - The "old for new" consumption policy has effectively stimulated consumer demand, benefiting 31.12 million people and generating sales of 207.03 billion yuan by February 23 [1] - There is a strong demand for smart and green products, with sales of smart glasses and embodied intelligent robots increasing by 47.3% and 32.7% respectively compared to the previous year [1] - Sales of water-saving bathroom fixtures and organic food also saw significant growth, increasing by 23.2% and 26.5% respectively during the holiday [1]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce reports that as of February 22, 2026, the consumption upgrade program has benefited 30.53 million people, generating sales of 204.54 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Market Trends - There is a strong demand for smart and green products, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards more sustainable and technologically advanced options [1] - During the Spring Festival holiday, key platforms saw significant sales growth, with smart glasses sales increasing by 47.3% and water-saving bathroom fixtures by 23.2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "Happy Shopping Spring Festival" initiative has effectively stimulated consumer spending during the holiday period, showcasing strong collaboration among various government departments to enhance domestic consumption and economic growth [1][5]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Impact - The initiative includes six key areas: food, accommodation, transportation, tourism, shopping, and entertainment, with significant policy measures such as trade-in programs, prize invoices, and financial support [1][3]. - A total of 20.5 billion yuan has been allocated for consumer vouchers and subsidies across 50 cities, with over 10 billion yuan in prizes distributed during the Spring Festival, significantly boosting consumer willingness to spend [3][4]. Group 2: Regional Responses and Activities - Local governments have actively organized events, with Beijing distributing over 20 million yuan in consumer vouchers and Henan issuing 70 million yuan in retail and dining vouchers, leading to substantial sales in various sectors [2][3]. - In Liaoning, monitored retail sales increased by 10.2% year-on-year during the holiday, with 18.4 million products sold through trade-in programs, generating 740 million yuan in sales [2][4]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 5.7% compared to the previous year, with foot traffic and sales in monitored shopping areas rising by 6.7% and 7.5%, respectively [4]. - The demand for smart and green products surged, with sales of smart glasses and intelligent robots increasing by 47.3% and 32.7%, respectively, during the holiday period [4]. Group 4: Future Recommendations - The initiative's success suggests the need for ongoing themed promotional activities throughout the year to maintain consumer engagement and adapt to seasonal demands [5]. - Recommendations include enhancing support for small businesses, integrating online and offline experiences, and utilizing big data for better supply-demand matching [5].

Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival has seen a significant surge in consumer enthusiasm, indicating a robust economic recovery in China, driven by the "trade-in" policy and government initiatives [1] - The focus of consumer spending is shifting from basic ownership to quality upgrades, with notable increases in sales of smart glasses, service robots, and water-saving bathroom fixtures during the holiday period [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - As of February 22, 2026, the trade-in policy has benefited 30.53 million people, generating sales of 204.54 billion yuan [1] - The government allocated 62.5 billion yuan in subsidies to stimulate the Spring Festival consumption market [1] Group 2: Industry Strategies - Companies should focus on the "smart + green" dual track, enhancing product offerings through technology and innovation, particularly in the fields of smart homes and low-carbon products [2] - There is a growing demand for high-quality, intelligent products in lower-tier markets, prompting companies to improve sales networks and service points to facilitate easier access for rural consumers [3] Group 3: Consumer Segmentation - The market is diversifying, with different consumer groups such as the elderly, young professionals, and those seeking emotional value in products, necessitating tailored product development [4] - Companies are encouraged to adopt a precise supply strategy to meet the varied needs of different consumer segments, ensuring a sustainable approach to product lifecycle management [4]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer electronics sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by strong demand for smart and green products, particularly during the Chinese New Year holiday, with notable sales increases in smart glasses and water-saving sanitary products [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 25, 2026, the CSI Consumer Electronics Theme Index (931494) rose by 0.71%, with notable increases in component stocks such as Xiamen Tungsten New Energy (up 5.71%), Geke Micro (up 5.70%), and Shanghai Silicon Industry (up 5.69%) [1] - The Consumer Electronics ETF (561600) also saw a rise of 0.72%, with the latest price reported at 1.26 yuan [1] Group 2: Sales Data - According to the Ministry of Commerce, as of February 22, 2026, the "old-for-new" policy in consumer goods has benefited 30.53 million people, generating sales of 204.54 billion yuan [1] - During the Chinese New Year holiday, sales of smart glasses increased by 250% year-on-year, while sales of water-saving sanitary products grew by 23.2% [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - AI glasses and other smart wearable devices are becoming a new trend in holiday consumption, with the "old-for-new" subsidy policy expanding to include smart glasses and other tech products [1] - The CSI Consumer Electronics Theme Index includes 50 listed companies involved in component production and brand design, reflecting the overall performance of the consumer electronics sector [1]