证券研究报告 科技 越南有望成为东南亚下一个半导体中 心—SEMIEXPO Vietnam 2025 洞察 华泰研究 2025 年 11 月 18 日│中国内地 动态点评 科技 增持 (维持) | 黄乐平，PhD | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570521050001 | leping.huang@htsc.com | | SFC No. AUZ066 | +(852) 3658 6000 | | 陈旭东 | 研究员 | SAC No. S0570521070004 SFC No. BPH392 chenxudong@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 于可熠 研究员 SAC No. S0570525030001 yukeyi@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 行业走势图 (10) 6 22 38 54 Nov-24 Mar-25 Jul-25 Nov-25 (%) 科技 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 11/7-11/8，我们参加了 SEMI 在越南河内举办的 SEMIEXPO Vietnam 论坛。 越南政府总理范明 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around China's halt in large-scale soybean purchases from the U.S., which contrasts with the U.S. government's expectations of a $120 billion procurement commitment [1] - China's agricultural imports have diversified, with private enterprises increasing their share, indicating that state-owned enterprises cannot fulfill the large orders anticipated by the U.S. [5] - The U.S. soybean industry is facing internal challenges, including surplus inventory and rising production costs, which complicate the market dynamics [3] Group 2 - The U.S. soybean import tariff of 13% significantly hampers competitiveness compared to Brazilian soybeans, which are 10% cheaper [1] - Brazil's soybean exports to China are projected to reach approximately 4 million tons by the end of 2025, providing China with leverage in negotiations [1] - The U.S. agricultural sector is concerned about the political volatility affecting trade agreements, as seen in the uncertainty faced by farmers regarding whether to store or sell their soybeans [3][5] Group 3 - China's procurement strategy appears to focus on risk diversification rather than reliance on a single source, reflecting a cautious approach in the face of geopolitical tensions [1] - The U.S. soybean association expresses hope that agricultural trade will not be politicized, highlighting the industry's frustration with the current trade environment [5] - China's response to the U.S. trade policies suggests that cooperation is contingent upon the removal of high tariffs, indicating a need for a more balanced trade relationship [5]

2025年10月，荷兰突然对安世半导体动手，把公司直接强制接管，理由是"技术转移风险"。这理由看上去挺冠冕堂皇，真掰开了看，不过是给大西洋联盟的 对华技术围堵找个漂亮的说辞。比起商业争执，这更像是一次政治宣示，跟2024年的新能源车关税战是一条线上的事。 荷兰经济事务部长甚至话说得很死，公开表示关键科技必须隔绝中国影响。这种把经济问题硬拽进政治圈的做法，欧洲自己也清楚后果。更早在2025年9 月，欧盟刚通过《关键原材料法案》，把半导体供应链列为高度敏感领域，这等于提前铺好了法律地毯，让类似安世这样的剧情容易发生。 看似有底气，其实欧洲心里也虚。2025年前九个月，中国新能源车对欧出口逆势上涨了52%，但欧洲车企在中国的销量却掉了42%。这种不对称的依赖摆在 台面上，欧洲就陷在一个怪圈里，既怕中国技术崛起，又怕真正撕破脸失去中国市场。 从结果看，安世事件已经被推上了中欧关系的风向标位置 。它不只是荷兰自己的意气之争，更是欧洲在战略产业上跟着美国亦步亦趋的缩影。 中国手里不是没牌。稀土、光伏这些反制筹码一旦打出来，效果一定显著。但问题是，一刀切可能反而把欧洲逼得更快完全倒向美国。看看德国的态度，10 月初德国车企 ...

Economic Outlook and CEO Confidence - 84% of CEOs in the energy and natural resources sector are optimistic about industry growth, up from 72% last year[12] - 78% of CEOs are confident about their own company's growth prospects, although this is a slight decrease from 82% in 2024[13] - 44% of CEOs expect a slight revenue increase (2.5%-4.99%) this year, compared to 30% last year[13] Artificial Intelligence and Innovation - 80% of CEOs recognize the disruptive potential of artificial intelligence (AI)[10] - 40% of CEOs are actively retraining employees affected by AI to enhance their skills[10] - 66% of CEOs expect to see returns on AI investments within 1-3 years, significantly higher than 15% in 2024[10] Mergers and Acquisitions - 55% of CEOs anticipate "moderate" M&A activity, a significant increase from 38% the previous year[16] - Only 36% of CEOs expect to engage in "major" M&A, down from 58% in 2024[16] ESG and Sustainability - 72% of CEOs have integrated sustainability into their corporate strategy, but only 38% have fully incorporated ESG into capital decisions[54] - 61% of CEOs acknowledge that public debates on sustainability hinder their focus on core tasks[54] Supply Chain Resilience - 34% of CEOs identify supply chain resilience as the primary factor influencing short-term decisions[22] - 61% of stakeholders in the renewable energy sector believe supply chain risks complicate the scaling of renewable projects[19]

Core Viewpoint - General Motors (GM) is increasingly dissatisfied with geopolitical disruptions affecting its operations and has requested thousands of suppliers to eliminate Chinese components from their supply chains [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain Strategy - GM executives have been instructing suppliers to seek alternative sources for raw materials and components outside of China, aiming for a complete supply chain shift by 2027 [3][4]. - The urgency of this initiative has intensified due to the escalation of the US-China trade war, which began affecting supplier directives as early as the end of 2024 [3][4]. - This move is part of a broader strategy to enhance supply chain resilience, with a preference for sourcing components from North American factories [4]. Group 2: Industry Context - The escalation of the US-China trade war in 2025 has prompted automotive companies to reassess their long-standing relationships with China, a key supplier of components and materials [4][5]. - Automotive manufacturers and suppliers have already begun shifting supply chains to avoid tariffs imposed during Trump's first term, with the situation becoming more complex as mutual tariffs were introduced in 2025 [5]. - The entrenched nature of China's component and raw material networks poses significant challenges for suppliers attempting to find alternatives, particularly in areas like lighting, electronics, and custom parts manufacturing [5].

11月5日至10日，第八届中国国际进口博览会（下称"进博会"）在国家会展中心（上海）举行。 本届进博会参展企业总数再创新高。一方面，国外企业加速进入中国市场，另一方面，中国企业也借助 平台成功"出海"，而物流、交通、运输，正是支撑起"进口"与"出海"互动的桥梁，这些行业的领军企业 纷纷亮相进博会，为观者展现出中外经济"双向奔赴"的新时代图景。 供应链显韧性 作为进博会交通与物流领域的重要配套活动，2025全球贸易与国际物流高峰论坛日前召开，来自制造 业、物流业和全球贸易领域参会代表汇聚一堂，共为全球供应链"韧性化"发展贡献中国方案、中国智 慧。 中国交通运输协会副会长钟华在论坛上表示，当前，中国物流行业延续"韧性增长、质效双升"的良好态 势，正加快从"规模扩张"向"质量提升"转变，同时，"逆全球化"思潮抬头，供应链"断链""脱钩"等风险 也在加剧。 对此，他提出三点建议：一是筑牢"安全共赢"的基石；二是激活"数智共赢"的动能；三是夯实"绿色共 赢"的底色。业界要以"共赢链"理念为指引，将物流发展深度融入国家双循环新发展格局，不断优化产 业链供应链协同，降低流通成本，助力制造业向全球价值链中高端攀升。 国家邮政 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Hisense Group Global Supply Chain Partner Summit was held in Qingdao, focusing on the theme "Intelligent Chain Global, Resilient Symbiosis" [1] - Ningbo Jizhi Technology Co., Ltd., a leader in the optical film industry, received the "Technology Leap Breakthrough Award" from Hisense Group for its significant contributions in optical film technology [1][2] Group 1: Technological Breakthroughs - Jizhi Technology is recognized for breaking the monopoly in optical film technology, having developed high-performance optical films that meet international standards [2] - The company's core composite brightness-enhancing film integrates multiple optical films into a single multifunctional film, reducing thickness and cost while enhancing display brightness and assembly efficiency [2][3] Group 2: Supply Chain Resilience - The summit's theme emphasizes Hisense's dual pursuit of supply chain stability and innovation, with Jizhi Technology providing critical "Chinese technological support" to Hisense's supply chain [3] - Jizhi Technology has become a strategic supplier for leading global display brands, showcasing its commitment to research and development [3] Group 3: Future Collaboration - Jizhi Technology and Hisense plan to deepen collaboration in three dimensions: technology, ecology, and globalization [4] - They will establish a "Joint Innovation Laboratory" to focus on next-generation display technologies, such as Mini/Micro LED and flexible displays, enhancing display effects and energy efficiency [4] Group 4: Green Supply Chain Initiatives - The companies aim to advance "low-carbon display" technology by optimizing energy consumption and emissions in optical film production, developing recyclable and low-VOC products [5] Group 5: Globalization Strategy - Jizhi Technology is expanding globally with new factories in Malaysia and offices in Vietnam, leveraging Hisense's global marketing network for efficient production and supply chain management [6] - The collaboration aims to enhance their influence in the global display industry while ensuring rapid delivery and technical support for Hisense's products [6]

Core Viewpoint - UPS is enhancing its global logistics capabilities and localizing its services in China to adapt to the evolving trade landscape by 2025, focusing on resilience and efficiency in supply chains [1][2] Group 1: Global Trade and Logistics Strategy - UPS is showcasing its upgraded global supply chain integration capabilities and AI-driven smart logistics solutions at the China International Import Expo [1] - The company aims to create a more resilient and efficient logistics system for businesses navigating the complex global trade environment [1] - UPS is committed to deepening its localized presence in China, optimizing products and services, and providing customized supply chain solutions for key clients [1] Group 2: Regional Network Enhancements - UPS is accelerating the dual-layer layout of its global logistics network and regional hubs, operating over 200 intercontinental and Asia-Pacific flights weekly from major Chinese airports [1] - The international air hub at Pudong International Airport operates nearly 50 flights weekly, providing efficient global connectivity for clients in the Asia-Pacific region [1] - UPS is transitioning its investments in mainland China from large-scale to more refined investments, extending its ground network into second and third-tier markets [2] Group 3: Specific Route Upgrades - UPS announced a strategic upgrade to its Asian regional air network, increasing the direct flight frequency from Shenzhen to Sydney to five times a week, enhancing capacity by over four times [2] - The delivery time from major Asian markets to Australia has been reduced by one day due to this upgrade [2] - UPS is also upgrading the route from Hanoi to Shenzhen, doubling the cargo capacity to 570 tons per week to meet the growing logistics demand in the region [2]

作为全球首个以进口为主题的国家级展会，中国国际进口博览会（以下简称"进博会"）日益成为跨国巨 头加码中国市场的重要展示平台之一。 在许宝燕作出上述表述的背后，作为全球领先的国际快递企业，联邦快递近年来正在持续加码中国市 场。许宝燕向记者介绍，联邦快递每周进出中国大陆的国际航班300多架次，高效连接中国客户与全球 市场。 而在过去的10月份，联邦快递还宣布，每周新增5个连接中国与法国巴黎的货运航班，以扩大其全球网 络覆盖范围，联邦快递表示，此举将协助亚洲企业更快捷、可靠、灵活地连接欧洲市场。 "今年是联邦快递在华41周年。中国已经成为我们国际业务发展最快、最具潜力的地区之一。"许宝燕向 记者表示，"中国是联邦快递策略的核心，联邦快递对中国市场的前景充满信心。" "中国快递市场极具发展前景" 在一众参与进博会的跨国巨头中，6次参展进博会的联邦快递格外受行业关注。 公开信息显示，在第八届进博会中，联邦快递亮相"服务贸易展区"，聚焦"供应链韧性""数字化转 型""可持续发展""社会责任"四大主题，全面展示其通过持续优化的物流网络建设和数字创新服务，支 持中国与全球市场互联互通的最新成果。 不同于一些单纯展示商品或服务 ...

汇丰前海证券大中华区经济学家姜璐璐认为，随着新发展格局的持续深化，中国企业也在更加积极优化 全球布局，积极拓展东盟等新兴市场。因此，除了制造业出海，接下来相关的技术、生产性服务会协 同"走出去"，也具备相当的增长潜力。 毕马威中国国际贸易与海关主管合伙人张浩炜认为，中国企业应更加重视各国贸易政策和规则的解读， 结合自身产品及行业特点，因地制宜地规划全球供应链布局。同时，企业应强化内部合规管控机制的建 立与实施，增强全球供应链架构的可持续性与韧性。通过平衡成本优化与合规管理，中国企业将能够在 未来的国际竞争中占据更有利的位置。 中证报中证网讯(记者黄一灵)11月7日，在第八届进博会期间，"中企出海行稳致远"会议在上海举办。 据悉，会议旨在探讨当前形势下出海企业应如何构建更具韧性、更稳健的供应链，以及如何应对在海外 市场深入本土化运营的挑战。 虹桥国际中央商务区管委会常务副主任孔福安表示，虹桥具有独一无二的区位优势、含金量高的政策优 势、便利度好的环境优势和竞争力强的人才优势，商务区将着力构筑出海企业总部高地，打造海外综合 服务高地以及出海制度创新高地，赋能中国企业提升国际竞争力，全力打造长三角强劲活跃增长极 的 ...