在过去，非洲企业若用人民币向中国合作伙伴付款，需经香港中间行周转，耗时至少3天，且手续费高 昂。接入CIPS系统后，刚果钴矿商的汇款2小时即可到账，成本降低40%。非洲是铁矿储量非常丰富的 一个区域，与中国有多个重要合作项目。 最近，人民币国际化进程迎来了一个重大里程碑。周三，人民币跨境支付系统（CIPS）宣布与标准银 行、非洲进出口银行、阿布扎比第一银行、大华银行等六家全球领先外资机构正式签署合作协议。这是 CIPS系统首次将非洲、中东、中亚及新加坡离岸人民币中心的核心银行纳入体系。 相关数据显示，截止今年5月底，CIPS系统的直接、间接参与者已达到1683家，其中直接参与者达到 174家。 CIPS（人民币跨境银行支付系统）是中国央行在2015年推出的跨境支付平台，是人民币跨境支付清算 主要渠道。CIPS为人民币国际化发挥了重要支持作用，相较于传统跨境人民币清算模式（需依赖代理 行），CIPS的结算速度、成本、系统覆盖时间及操作便利性等方面都有显著改善。 目前，人民币已跃居全球第三大支付货币、第二大贸易融资货币，全球有186个国家和地区的商家都能 使用数字人民币，这些数据表明人民币不仅在国际货币体系中的地 ...

Group 1 - The discussion at the Lujiazui Forum highlighted concerns over the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on the global economy and the potential decline of the US dollar as a reserve currency [1][2] - Giovanni TRIA emphasized that the US dollar's status provides the US with significant advantages, allowing it to finance its debts without limits, but the current tariff strategies may weaken confidence in the dollar and US bonds [1][2] - The need for a diversified global currency system was stressed, with the possibility of multiple currencies playing major roles and the issuance of a global Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) being considered [2][3] Group 2 - The role of stablecoins, particularly dollar-pegged stablecoins, was a focal point, with discussions on their potential global impact and the challenges of other currencies achieving similar status [2][3] - Concerns were raised about the implications of dollarization in various economies, with the need for careful consideration of its effects on national economies [3] - The Singapore Monetary Authority highlighted the importance of innovation in digital currencies to enhance financial system efficiency and facilitate cross-border transactions, suggesting that stablecoins may not necessarily lead to dollarization [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing explosive growth in the first half of 2025, driven by escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, with COMEX gold prices surpassing $3,450 per ounce, leading to a significant increase in gold ETFs as a prominent investment choice [1][3]. Market Performance - As of June 16, 2025, gold and gold stock indices have risen in tandem due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, with several ETFs tracking the SSH gold stock index showing weekly gains exceeding 7% [2]. - Year-to-date, the overall market for gold ETFs has seen an increase of 124.66%, with total market size growing from 72.608 billion yuan to 163.12 billion yuan, reflecting a robust demand for gold-related investments [1][3]. - The number of gold ETF shares has increased by 10.5 billion this year, with market size surging by 90.5 billion yuan [2]. Underlying Factors - The U.S. debt crisis has intensified concerns about the sustainability of U.S. Treasury bonds, with the fiscal gap reaching $316 billion in May 2025 and a 14% year-on-year increase in annual deficits [4]. - Central banks globally are accelerating de-dollarization, with gold purchases reaching a record high in 2024, totaling 520 tons from January to May 2025, with China, India, and Turkey leading the increases [4]. - The Federal Reserve's shift in policy, including a projected 100 basis points rate cut in 2025, has historically correlated with an average gold price increase of 22% during such cycles [4]. Investment Opportunities - Gold mining stocks are showing high earnings elasticity, with companies like Zijin Mining seeing significant EPS increases with rising gold prices [5]. - The high-end gold jewelry market in China is growing at a rate of 35%, with online sales accounting for 32% of total sales, indicating a structural change in consumer behavior [5]. - Different types of gold ETFs cater to varying risk-return profiles, with physical gold ETFs suitable for hedging against inflation and gold stock ETFs offering higher potential returns [5]. Future Outlook - The short-term outlook for gold prices is primarily driven by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, while medium-term support is expected from U.S. debt issues and central bank gold purchases [5]. - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization is likely to enhance gold's position in asset allocation over the long term, reflecting a broader transformation in global monetary systems and investment logic [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that rising risk aversion is driving gold prices higher, with the Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) seeing significant inflows and a current scale of 1.427 billion yuan, making it the top product in the Shenzhen market [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF closely tracks Shanghai gold (SHAU.SGE) and has lower management and custody fees compared to similar products, with a management fee of 0.25% and a custody fee of 0.05% [1] - Global markets are experiencing heightened risk aversion, with gold prices reaching a new high of 3,436 USD/ounce, reflecting a 1% increase [1] Group 2 - Recent volatility in gold prices is seen as a reflection of the restructuring of the global monetary system, with driving factors shifting from inflation expectations to sovereign credit risk and global system stability [2] - The U.S. trade policy and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are expected to influence gold price fluctuations, with potential for prices to exceed 3,500 USD if risks escalate [2] - The U.S. administration's approach to tariffs and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, including potential military actions against Iran, are contributing to the uncertainty in the market [2]

当地时间6月11日，欧洲央行发布题为《欧元的国际地位》的年度报告。受多重因素影响，多国央行近 期大举增持黄金，加上金价飙升，黄金已取代欧元，成为全球第二大储备资产，仅次于美元。报告指 出，2024年美元在世界各国外汇储备中占比46%，比前一年小幅下降。 报告称，黄金在各国外汇储备中的占比明显上升，2024年全球储备资产中黄金占比达20%，超过欧元的 16%，仅低于美元的46%，成为全球第二大储备资产。报告还指出，全球央行购金量连续三年超1000 吨，是21世纪10年代年均水平的两倍，购金速度创历史新高。目前全球央行持有的黄金储备已经达到 3.6万吨，接近二战后布雷顿森林体系时期的历史最高水平。而全球央行增持黄金的主要原因是规避地 缘政治风险与分散投资，同时，担心遭到制裁、预期全球货币体系将发生重大变化等因素加速了多国央 行增持黄金的速度。（央视新闻） ...

全球变局：锚定"确定性" 国泰海通中期策略会宏观发言实录 登记编号 S0880525040019 本报告导读： 在各国信任基础逐渐减弱的情况下，全球产业链、货币体系及资产分析框架都迎来 重构，黄金因去美元化及持续的央行购金需求或呈长期牛市，美元美债定价需关注 美元信用因素；国内经济需求端仍待提振，政策将延续渐进积极基调。 投资要点： 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦超预期 [Table_Authors] 梁中华(分析师) 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.09 2025-06-09 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 | 1. 全球变局：大类资产如何重定价 | | --- | | 3 | 究 宏 观 专 题 021-38676666 [Table_Summary] 全球变局：大类资产如何重定价？全球经济体系重构的根源是信任 基础的变化。变局中的"确定性"在于供应链变化只能是缓慢的，短 期虽有关税不确定性扰动，但影响没那么大。而全球货币体系的重 构也是信任的变化。近几年美国的制裁做法，其实在破坏货币体系 的信任度。在这个背景下，黄金的长期牛市需要站在更长历史维度 看待 ...

报告导读： 受到一系列利好政策推动， A 股在 5 月延续了 4 月中旬以来的反弹势头。我 们建议后续基金配置在整体维持均衡风格的前提下，适度偏向成长，并且关注基金经理的 选股和风控能力。 基金投资策略 股混基金： 5 月份，制造业 PMI 为 49.5% ，比上月上升 0.5 个百分点，本月制造业 PMI 的表现与过去 三年同期水平大体相当，涨幅略强于季节。在关税摩擦缓和后， 5 月出口期看，外部因素其实不是那么重 要，因为我国制造竞争力有足够的韧性，美国也不可能持续逆着经济规律办事，所以内部解决好低通胀的 问题才是关键。往后看，一揽子支持稳市场稳预期的金融政策正在路上，国泰海通策略团队认为，从行业 上来看，在这轮 A 股上涨行情中，新兴科技依然是中长期主线，周期金融领域可能成为黑马，同时具有竞 争格局改善、供需偏紧逻辑的周期品，以及新消费需求和品类创新逻辑下的新消费领域同样值得关注。从 基金投资的角度来看， 2024 年以来价值和成长风格中均具备结构性投资机会的市场格局或将延续，因此 我们 建议后续基金配置在整体维持均衡风格的前提下，适度偏向成长 ， 并且关注基金经理的选股和风控 能力。 债券基金： 6 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the long-term and continuous purchasing behavior of global central banks towards gold reflects a restructuring of the global monetary system due to changes in trust foundations [2] - The recent performance of the gold ETF fund shows a net inflow of funds totaling 1.25 billion yuan over the past four days, indicating strong investor interest [2] - The gold ETF fund has achieved a 95.39% increase in net value over the past five years, ranking it among the top funds in its category [3] Group 2 - The gold ETF fund has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10%, which are competitive within the industry [3] - The fund's performance metrics include a maximum monthly return of 10.62% and a historical holding period profitability probability of 100% over three years [3] - Leverage funds are actively investing in the gold ETF, with the latest margin buying amounting to 27.57 million yuan and a margin balance of 3.736 billion yuan [2]

一是"基本面"。即使汇率决定论历经了国际借贷说、购买力平价、利率平价和资产市场说等多阶段的演 变，但学界普遍公认经济发展水平和增速是决定一国汇率的最基本变量。虽然中国正在经历增速换挡， 但随着制度型开放的提速和内需潜力的挖掘，我国经济增长的基本面明显好于发达国家。世界银行和 IMF最新的报告都对中国经济增长的前景充满了信心，并且给出了远高于美欧日等发达国家的增速预 期。如果再考虑大量不断涌现的科技创新，人民币在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定的基础非常扎实。 二是"资金面"。资金跨境流动是影响一国汇率的关键要素。自布雷顿森林体系解体之后，美国依靠全球 价值链分工又再次强化了美元全球"公共货币"地位。但随着特朗普政府贸易立场转变，以及美国政府不 断增加的财政赤字，建立在全球分工基础上的美元霸权体系走向衰落的力量正在聚集。虽然美联储应对 措施还不明朗，但美元定价逻辑或将迎来根本性的改变。中国作为全球第二大经济体和多边主义拥护 者，人民币的价值自然引起了全球投资者的重视，这使得国外投资者开始审视中国经济的增长潜力，人 民币价值重构空间已经打开。一些外国资本已经提前认识到了中国资产的价值，并自年初以来大量涌入 中国。在经历 ...

全球黄金正以万吨级流入中国 美国联储局的黄金到底有没有8133吨？自1950年以来美联储从未允许对洛克斯堡和纽约联邦储备银行金 库的黄金进行全面独立审计，也就是说没人能证明这些黄金的存在。美国黄金储备的高位反映了其作为 全球金融体系核心的地位，但近年来，部分国家（如德国、印度、匈牙利等）撤回存放在美国的黄金， 以增强本国的金融主权。2012年，德国要求美国运回部分黄金储备，结果发现归还的金条，不是原始批 次，甚至规格都变了。自此，市场开始怀疑美联储金库可能根本没有黄金，可能是一场持续半个世纪的 金融骗局。但是，没有明确证据证明这是一个金融骗局。2025年2月底，美国在短短两个月内从伦敦和 瑞士进口了超过600吨黄金，这一数据震惊了市场。这一进口量远超正常水平，确实引发了市场对美国 黄金储备策略的猜测。 全球黄金正以万吨级流入中国，中国正在「吞金」，中国公布官方黄金储备为2279吨，但实际估计可能 超过3万吨。不要低估我们中国领导人的「金融智慧」，虚则实之、实则虚之，隐藏实力吓你一惊。 2016至2022年，中国淨进口黄金5978吨，但中国央行公布的黄金储备增加量远低于这个数字，剩下的黄 金去哪里呢？答案是中国 ...