Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have surged strongly, stabilizing above the historical $3,500 mark, continuing a bullish trend due to the contraction in U.S. manufacturing for six consecutive months, escalating tariff disputes, and strong expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - The latest data shows that the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose slightly from 48.0 in July to 48.7 in August, but remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector, which constitutes about 10.2% of the U.S. economy [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has intensified, with a U.S. appeals court ruling that most of the Trump administration's tariff measures are illegal, although these tariffs will remain in effect until October 14 [1] Technical Analysis - The gold price is showing a strong upward trend with higher lows, indicating a robust bullish momentum, as evidenced by the recent historical highs [3] - The MACD indicator suggests that bullish forces are dominating the market, with the fast and slow lines operating above the zero line [3] Trading Strategy - For gold, a long position is suggested at $3,512.0 with a stop loss at $3,500.0 and targets set at $3,525.0 and $3,565.0 [4] - For silver, a long position is recommended at $40.45 with a stop loss at $40.25 and targets at $40.85 and $41.20 [6] Market News - The market is anticipating several key economic indicators and speeches, including the European Central Bank President Lagarde's speech and various PMI data releases from France, Germany, and the Eurozone [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian economy is experiencing persistent core inflation, making it difficult for the Bank of Canada to consider interest rate cuts [1] Inflation Trends - Overall inflation in Canada decreased to 1.7% in July due to the cancellation of the consumer carbon tax and falling energy prices [1] - However, rising prices for food, housing, and durable goods are offsetting this decline, with durable goods price increases potentially reflecting the impact of tariffs [1] - The company anticipates that both overall and core inflation rates (currently above 3%) will gradually rise in the short term as the costs from the US-Canada tariff dispute are passed on to retail prices [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its policy interest rate at 2.75% during the meeting on September 17 [1] Currency Analysis - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently at 1.3856, with a slight increase of 0.02% from the opening price of 1.3855 [1] - The currency pair may be forming a "wedge" pattern, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 60 indicating significant selling pressure [1] - Key resistance is noted around the 1.3878 level, while important support is at 1.3758; a break below this support could confirm a continuation of the downtrend, targeting 1.3375 [1]

Core Viewpoint - LG Chem's petrochemical business reported a significant decline in revenue and operating profit in the second quarter, attributed to external factors such as U.S. tariff disputes and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Financial Performance - The petrochemical business revenue reached 4.6 trillion KRW (approximately 3.3 billion USD), a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% [1] - The operating loss for the petrochemical division was 90 billion KRW, compared to an operating profit of 46 billion KRW in the same period last year [1] - The advanced materials division saw a 50% drop in operating profit to 71 billion KRW, with sales declining by 34.6% to 1 trillion KRW [1] Market Outlook - LG Chem maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for its petrochemical business, despite ongoing uncertainties related to U.S. tariffs [1] - The company plans to enhance profitability through normalization of new production capacity and ongoing cost reduction measures [1]

Group 1 - Swiss Federal President Keller-Zuthel urgently traveled to Washington, D.C. to negotiate with the U.S. government before the deadline to reduce the 39% tariff announced by Trump [1][2] - The Swiss government aims to improve its tariff situation through negotiations with U.S. authorities [1] - Trump's tariff announcement shocked Switzerland, as the new rate is higher than the previously announced 31% [2] Group 2 - It remains unclear whether Trump will meet with Swiss officials or what new proposals Switzerland might present [2] - The U.S. emphasizes a significant trade deficit with Switzerland, claiming that Switzerland profits greatly from pharmaceuticals [3] - If the 39% tariff is fully implemented, Switzerland's economic output could face a risk of up to 1% in the medium term [3] Group 3 - The tariff dispute poses a challenge to Switzerland's export model and highlights the vulnerability of even close allies under Trump's transaction-oriented negotiation style [3]

Core Viewpoint - Swatch's CEO is urging the Swiss President to travel to Washington to address the ongoing tariff dispute [1] Group 1 - The call for intervention highlights the importance of resolving trade tensions for the Swiss watch industry [1] - The tariff dispute has significant implications for Swiss watch exports, which are a vital part of the country's economy [1] - Swatch is advocating for diplomatic efforts to mitigate the impact of tariffs on its business operations [1]

产量：2025Q2 黄金产量 86.60 万盎司（26.94 吨），同比减少 3.3%，环比减少 0.9%。2025Q2 和 2025H1 黄金产量与上年同 期相比有所下降，主要原因是 Meadowbank（驯鹿迁徙时间长 于预期，影响了采矿和选矿作业）、Fosterville（品位和产量较 低）和 CanadianMalartic（产量较低）的产量较低，但 Macassa 和 LaRonde（品位较高）的产量较高，部分抵消了下降的产 量。 销量：2025Q2 黄金销量 84.68 万盎司（26.34 吨），同比减少 3.1%，环比增加 0.5%。 售价：2025Q2 黄金平均售价为 3288 美元/盎司（761.1 元/ 克），同比增长 40.4%，环比增长 13.7%。 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 1 日 [Table_Title] Agnico Eagle 2025Q2 年黄金产量分别环比减少 0.9%至 26.94 吨，净利润环比增长 31.2%至 10.69 亿美元 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian President Lula's approval rating has risen above disapproval for the first time in nine months amid escalating trade tensions with the United States [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Approval Rating** - A recent poll indicates Lula's approval rating at 50.2%, an increase from 49.7% two weeks prior, marking the first time since October of the previous year that his approval has surpassed disapproval [1] - **Trade Dispute** - The trade dispute intensified when U.S. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports, citing "political persecution" of Lula's right-wing opponent, former President Bolsonaro [1] - **Government Response** - Lula's administration has retaliated by labeling Trump an unpopular "emperor" and denouncing the sanctions as "unacceptable" [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Germany is shifting from a dialogue-based approach to a more hardline stance against the U.S. due to escalating tariffs, aligning more closely with France's call for strong countermeasures [1][2][5] - The U.S. has announced a 30% tariff on EU goods starting August 1, with existing tariffs on steel and aluminum at 50% and on automobiles at 25%, significantly impacting EU exports [2][4] - Germany's economy, heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., is facing substantial pressure, with exports to the U.S. dropping 7.7% in May, marking a three-year low [4][5] Group 2 - The European Commission is considering activating a coercive tool to impose trade and investment restrictions on countries attempting to pressure EU member states economically [3] - Experts suggest that the U.S. may be overestimating its negotiating leverage, as many German high-end industrial products have no substitutes in the U.S. market [6] - Despite the hardening stance, both the U.S. and EU are still open to negotiations, with the EU planning to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of U.S. goods if talks fail [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant shift in Germany's stance towards the U.S. regarding trade tariffs, moving from a more conciliatory approach to a stronger opposition, aligning more closely with France's hardline position [1][4][5] - The U.S. has raised its demands in trade negotiations with the EU, seeking to impose minimum tariffs of 15% to 20% on EU goods, which could provoke retaliatory measures from the EU [2][3] - Germany's initial strategy was to quickly reach an agreement with the U.S., but recent developments have led to a unified stance among EU countries to prepare for potential retaliation against U.S. tariffs [4][5][6] Group 2 - The EU is still hopeful for a trade agreement with the U.S., but the increasing demands from the U.S. have made it difficult to reach a consensus [2][3] - Germany's economic dependence on the U.S. market has historically influenced its more moderate approach, but the current aggressive stance from the U.S. has forced Germany to consider stronger countermeasures [6][7] - The shift in Germany's position may encourage other EU member states to adopt a similar hardline approach, potentially leading to a more unified EU response against U.S. tariffs [7]

Oil Market Overview - Oil prices experienced a rebound in early trading, recovering from previous losses due to stronger-than-expected economic indicators from major oil-consuming nations and easing global trade tensions [1] - U.S. crude oil inventories saw a significant decline of 3.9 million barrels to 422.2 million, surpassing the expected draw of 552,000 barrels, indicating robust refinery operations and heightened demand [2] - Despite the rise in crude prices, unexpected increases in gasoline and diesel inventories suggest a supply overhang in refined products [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve's economic snapshot indicated a modest pickup in activity, but the overall outlook remained "neutral to slightly pessimistic," with businesses concerned about inflation from higher import tariffs [4] - Chinese economic data showed a slower second-quarter growth, but crude oil processing in June rose by 8.5% year on year, indicating strong fuel demand [5] Global Trade Outlook - President Trump expressed optimism regarding trade negotiations with major partners, hinting at progress with China, an imminent trade agreement with India, and potential deals with Europe [6] Sector Performance Gainers - Energy sector, particularly the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP), is expected to benefit from rising oil prices as exploration and production companies increase output [9] - Steel producers, represented by the VanEck Vectors Steel ETF (SLX), are likely to gain from rising oil prices as they supply materials for oil drilling operations [10] Losers - Retail sector, represented by the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), may suffer as rising energy prices squeeze consumer spending [12] - Oil refiners, represented by the VanEck Vectors Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK), could face profitability challenges due to higher crude prices impacting their input costs [13] - Airlines, represented by the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS), are expected to perform better in a falling crude price scenario, as energy costs significantly affect their overall expenses [14] - Gold miners, represented by the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), may face pressure on operating margins due to higher oil prices, which constitute a significant portion of their production costs [15]