Economic Outlook - Germany's economy is predicted to grow only 0.2% in 2025, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from previous forecasts, and 1.3% in 2026, down by 0.2 percentage points [3] - Unemployment is expected to rise by 155,000, leading to an unemployment rate of 6.3%, with a return to below 6% not anticipated until 2027 [3] Trade and Tariff Impact - Despite a tariff agreement between the EU and the US, tariffs imposed by former President Trump remain largely unchanged, with most goods facing a 15% tariff, putting pressure on German exports to the US, which is still Germany's most important export market [4] Government Stimulus Measures - The effectiveness of Germany's government stimulus plan is expected to be lower than anticipated, with an economic boost of €38 billion projected for 2025, nearly €20 billion less than previous estimates, and only €9 billion for the current year [5] - Future growth may be supported by defense and infrastructure investments [5] Inflation and Policy Challenges - Inflation in Germany is forecasted to rise to 2.6% in 2026, up from 2.2% in 2024, indicating ongoing economic challenges [6] - The ability of Germany to overcome prolonged economic weakness is heavily dependent on government economic policies, with concerns about potential long-term economic stagnation and industrial decline if policy inertia continues [6]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have surged strongly, stabilizing above the historical $3,500 mark, continuing a bullish trend due to the contraction in U.S. manufacturing for six consecutive months, escalating tariff disputes, and strong expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - The latest data shows that the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose slightly from 48.0 in July to 48.7 in August, but remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector, which constitutes about 10.2% of the U.S. economy [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has intensified, with a U.S. appeals court ruling that most of the Trump administration's tariff measures are illegal, although these tariffs will remain in effect until October 14 [1] Technical Analysis - The gold price is showing a strong upward trend with higher lows, indicating a robust bullish momentum, as evidenced by the recent historical highs [3] - The MACD indicator suggests that bullish forces are dominating the market, with the fast and slow lines operating above the zero line [3] Trading Strategy - For gold, a long position is suggested at $3,512.0 with a stop loss at $3,500.0 and targets set at $3,525.0 and $3,565.0 [4] - For silver, a long position is recommended at $40.45 with a stop loss at $40.25 and targets at $40.85 and $41.20 [6] Market News - The market is anticipating several key economic indicators and speeches, including the European Central Bank President Lagarde's speech and various PMI data releases from France, Germany, and the Eurozone [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian economy is experiencing persistent core inflation, making it difficult for the Bank of Canada to consider interest rate cuts [1] Inflation Trends - Overall inflation in Canada decreased to 1.7% in July due to the cancellation of the consumer carbon tax and falling energy prices [1] - However, rising prices for food, housing, and durable goods are offsetting this decline, with durable goods price increases potentially reflecting the impact of tariffs [1] - The company anticipates that both overall and core inflation rates (currently above 3%) will gradually rise in the short term as the costs from the US-Canada tariff dispute are passed on to retail prices [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its policy interest rate at 2.75% during the meeting on September 17 [1] Currency Analysis - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently at 1.3856, with a slight increase of 0.02% from the opening price of 1.3855 [1] - The currency pair may be forming a "wedge" pattern, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 60 indicating significant selling pressure [1] - Key resistance is noted around the 1.3878 level, while important support is at 1.3758; a break below this support could confirm a continuation of the downtrend, targeting 1.3375 [1]

Core Viewpoint - LG Chem's petrochemical business reported a significant decline in revenue and operating profit in the second quarter, attributed to external factors such as U.S. tariff disputes and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Financial Performance - The petrochemical business revenue reached 4.6 trillion KRW (approximately 3.3 billion USD), a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% [1] - The operating loss for the petrochemical division was 90 billion KRW, compared to an operating profit of 46 billion KRW in the same period last year [1] - The advanced materials division saw a 50% drop in operating profit to 71 billion KRW, with sales declining by 34.6% to 1 trillion KRW [1] Market Outlook - LG Chem maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for its petrochemical business, despite ongoing uncertainties related to U.S. tariffs [1] - The company plans to enhance profitability through normalization of new production capacity and ongoing cost reduction measures [1]

Group 1 - Swiss Federal President Keller-Zuthel urgently traveled to Washington, D.C. to negotiate with the U.S. government before the deadline to reduce the 39% tariff announced by Trump [1][2] - The Swiss government aims to improve its tariff situation through negotiations with U.S. authorities [1] - Trump's tariff announcement shocked Switzerland, as the new rate is higher than the previously announced 31% [2] Group 2 - It remains unclear whether Trump will meet with Swiss officials or what new proposals Switzerland might present [2] - The U.S. emphasizes a significant trade deficit with Switzerland, claiming that Switzerland profits greatly from pharmaceuticals [3] - If the 39% tariff is fully implemented, Switzerland's economic output could face a risk of up to 1% in the medium term [3] Group 3 - The tariff dispute poses a challenge to Switzerland's export model and highlights the vulnerability of even close allies under Trump's transaction-oriented negotiation style [3]

Core Viewpoint - Swatch's CEO is urging the Swiss President to travel to Washington to address the ongoing tariff dispute [1] Group 1 - The call for intervention highlights the importance of resolving trade tensions for the Swiss watch industry [1] - The tariff dispute has significant implications for Swiss watch exports, which are a vital part of the country's economy [1] - Swatch is advocating for diplomatic efforts to mitigate the impact of tariffs on its business operations [1]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the gold production of Agnico Eagle decreased by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter to 26.94 tons, while net profit increased by 31.2% to $1.069 billion [2][7] - The average gold price in Q2 2025 was $3,288 per ounce, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.7% [2][3] - The company expects to meet its annual gold production guidance for 2025, having achieved approximately 51% of the midpoint of its guidance in the first half of the year [13] Production and Operational Summary - **Production**: Q2 2025 gold production was 866,029 ounces (26.94 tons), a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.9% [2][16] - **Sales**: Gold sales in Q2 2025 were 846,835 ounces (26.34 tons), a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.5% [2][16] - **Cost Metrics**: - Unit production cost in Q2 2025 was $911 per ounce, up 5.7% year-on-year and 3.6% quarter-on-quarter [3][16] - Total cash cost per ounce was $933, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [3][16] - All-in sustaining cost (AISC) was $1,289 per ounce, up 10.3% year-on-year [3][16] Financial Performance - **Revenue**: Q2 2025 revenue was $2.816 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.1% [4][17] - **Net Income**: Net income for Q2 2025 was $1.069 billion, a year-on-year increase of 126.5% [7][17] - **Adjusted Net Income**: Adjusted net income was $976 million, up 82.4% year-on-year [8][17] - **EBITDA**: Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $1.914 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62.8% [9][17] - **Free Cash Flow**: Free cash flow before changes in non-cash working capital balances was $792 million, a year-on-year increase of 36.1% [11][17] Capital Expenditures - Capital expenditures in Q2 2025 totaled $538 million, with capitalized exploration expenditures of $78 million [12][17] - Total capital expenditures for the first half of 2025 were $957 million [12][17] Guidance for 2025 - The company maintains its guidance for 2025, expecting gold production to be between 3.3 million and 3.5 million ounces [18]

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian President Lula's approval rating has risen above disapproval for the first time in nine months amid escalating trade tensions with the United States [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Approval Rating** - A recent poll indicates Lula's approval rating at 50.2%, an increase from 49.7% two weeks prior, marking the first time since October of the previous year that his approval has surpassed disapproval [1] - **Trade Dispute** - The trade dispute intensified when U.S. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports, citing "political persecution" of Lula's right-wing opponent, former President Bolsonaro [1] - **Government Response** - Lula's administration has retaliated by labeling Trump an unpopular "emperor" and denouncing the sanctions as "unacceptable" [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Germany is shifting from a dialogue-based approach to a more hardline stance against the U.S. due to escalating tariffs, aligning more closely with France's call for strong countermeasures [1][2][5] - The U.S. has announced a 30% tariff on EU goods starting August 1, with existing tariffs on steel and aluminum at 50% and on automobiles at 25%, significantly impacting EU exports [2][4] - Germany's economy, heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., is facing substantial pressure, with exports to the U.S. dropping 7.7% in May, marking a three-year low [4][5] Group 2 - The European Commission is considering activating a coercive tool to impose trade and investment restrictions on countries attempting to pressure EU member states economically [3] - Experts suggest that the U.S. may be overestimating its negotiating leverage, as many German high-end industrial products have no substitutes in the U.S. market [6] - Despite the hardening stance, both the U.S. and EU are still open to negotiations, with the EU planning to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of U.S. goods if talks fail [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant shift in Germany's stance towards the U.S. regarding trade tariffs, moving from a more conciliatory approach to a stronger opposition, aligning more closely with France's hardline position [1][4][5] - The U.S. has raised its demands in trade negotiations with the EU, seeking to impose minimum tariffs of 15% to 20% on EU goods, which could provoke retaliatory measures from the EU [2][3] - Germany's initial strategy was to quickly reach an agreement with the U.S., but recent developments have led to a unified stance among EU countries to prepare for potential retaliation against U.S. tariffs [4][5][6] Group 2 - The EU is still hopeful for a trade agreement with the U.S., but the increasing demands from the U.S. have made it difficult to reach a consensus [2][3] - Germany's economic dependence on the U.S. market has historically influenced its more moderate approach, but the current aggressive stance from the U.S. has forced Germany to consider stronger countermeasures [6][7] - The shift in Germany's position may encourage other EU member states to adopt a similar hardline approach, potentially leading to a more unified EU response against U.S. tariffs [7]