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国泰海通|宏观:关税传导仍慢,降息预期增强——2025年7月美国物价数据点评
Core Insights - The July CPI data indicates that the transmission of tariffs on core goods inflation remains slow, reinforcing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September [1][2] - The current market's expectation of three rate cuts by the Fed this year may be overly optimistic, as immigration and tariff policies will continue to impact inflation in the second half of the year [3] Inflation Data - In July, the US CPI year-on-year was 2.7% (previous value 2.7%, market expectation 2.8%). The core CPI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% year-on-year [1] - The month-on-month CPI growth rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2% (market expectation 0.2%), while the core CPI month-on-month was 0.3% (previous value 0.2%), aligning with market expectations [1] Core Goods and Services - The increase in transportation goods inflation in July was a major support for core goods, particularly the significant rebound in the used car segment [2] - Tariff-sensitive goods showed a decline in month-on-month growth rates, with furniture, clothing, and leisure goods maintaining positive growth but at a slower pace compared to June [2] - Medical services and transportation were the main drivers of core services, with strong performance in dental services and airline ticket prices, likely influenced by a rebound in travel demand [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The July CPI data suggests that the slow transmission of tariffs and stable service demand may lead to a "soft landing" scenario rather than a recession, impacting market expectations for Fed rate cuts [2] - The upcoming employment data for August and the Jackson Hole central bank conference will be critical events for observing the Fed's monetary policy decisions [3]
国泰海通 · 晨报0814|宏观、金融工程
Macro Analysis - The core viewpoint of the article is that the transmission of tariffs remains slow, leading to an increased expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4] - In July, the US CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, unchanged from the previous value, while the core CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% [3] - The month-on-month CPI growth rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, while the core CPI month-on-month was 0.3%, aligning with market expectations [3] - Food and energy inflation showed a month-on-month decline, with core services being the main driver for the core CPI's month-on-month increase [3] Core Goods and Services - The month-on-month growth rate of tariff-sensitive core goods has declined, with transportation goods inflation being a major support for core goods [3] - The significant rebound in the used car segment contributed to this growth, while tariff-sensitive items like furniture, clothing, and leisure goods saw a decrease in growth rates compared to June [3] - Medical services, particularly dental services, and transportation services, especially airfares, were strong performers in July, driven by a recovery in travel demand [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The July CPI data indicates that tariff transmission is still slow, and service demand has not shown a significant slowdown, reinforcing market expectations for a September interest rate cut [4] - The persistent core service inflation suggests that the market is trading on a "soft landing" rather than a "recession" scenario, leading to a decline in short-term US Treasury yields [4] - The article suggests that the market's expectation of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year may be overly optimistic due to potential disruptions from upcoming employment data and the sticky nature of core service inflation [4] Financial Engineering - The article discusses the decomposition of the enhanced CSI 300 index into internal and external components, with internal stocks showing lower tracking error and relative drawdown but also weaker excess returns [7] - The external component provides greater return elasticity, and the study indicates that a multi-factor model based on fundamentals and momentum indicators is more effective for the CSI 300 index [8] - Backtesting results show that the enhanced strategy can achieve an annualized excess return of at least 10% since 2016, with an information ratio above 2.0 [8]
2025 年 7 月美国物价数据点评:关税传导仍慢,降息预期增强
Inflation Data Summary - In July, the U.S. CPI year-on-year growth was 2.7%, unchanged from June and below the market expectation of 2.8%[7] - Core CPI increased to 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in June, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 3.0%[7] - Month-on-month CPI growth fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI rose to 0.3%[7] Core Goods and Services Analysis - Core goods CPI remained at 0.2% month-on-month, supported mainly by the transportation sector, particularly used cars, which saw a 1.2 percentage point increase to 0.5%[11] - Tariff-sensitive goods experienced a slowdown in growth, with furniture and clothing showing declines of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points respectively compared to June[12] - Core services CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%, driven by strong performance in dental and air travel services, with airfares increasing by 4.1 percentage points to 4.0%[13] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The July CPI data reinforced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with a 94% probability of a 25 basis point cut[21] - The market anticipates three rate cuts within the year, scheduled for September, October, and December[21] - Despite the optimistic outlook, the company believes the market's expectation of three rate cuts may be overly optimistic due to persistent core service inflation and ongoing tariff impacts[23] Risks and Considerations - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have resurfaced, alongside the potential for continued strength in the U.S. labor market, which could disrupt rate cut expectations[24] - The impact of tariffs on core goods inflation remains slow, with the potential for further increases in tariffs in the latter half of the year, which may continue to affect inflation dynamics[22]
2025年7月美国物价数据点评:关税传导仍慢,降息预期增强
Inflation Data - In July, the US CPI year-on-year growth was 2.7%, unchanged from June and below the market expectation of 2.8%[11] - The core CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%, slightly above the market expectation of 3.0%[11] - The month-on-month CPI growth decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, aligning with market expectations[11] Core Goods and Services - Core goods inflation remained at 0.2% month-on-month, supported mainly by transportation goods, particularly used cars, which saw a significant increase of 1.2 percentage points to 0.5%[15] - Core services inflation increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%, driven by strong performance in dental services and airfares, which rose by 1.3 percentage points to 2.6% and 4.1 percentage points to 4.0%, respectively[20] Federal Reserve Outlook - The July CPI data reinforced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with the probability rising to 94% for a 25 basis point cut[30] - Current market expectations for three rate cuts this year may be overly optimistic, given the persistent core service inflation and ongoing impacts from tariffs and immigration policies[32] Tariff Impact - The transmission of tariffs to core goods inflation remains slow, with concerns that tariffs will continue to influence inflation in the second half of the year[31] - Despite some positive growth in tariff-sensitive categories like furniture and clothing, the growth rates have slowed compared to June[16]
美国7月CPI点评:关税传导仍不明显,其他政策影响也在显现
BOCOM International· 2025-08-13 09:39
Global Macro - The July CPI in the US increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous month and below the expected 2.8% [2] - The core CPI rose to 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in the previous month, indicating a continuous increase over three months [2] - Energy prices have significantly contributed to the decline in inflation, with international oil prices dropping due to easing geopolitical tensions [4] - The core goods and services prices have both risen, with tariffs not fully reflected in the current inflation data as US companies absorbed over 50% of the tariff costs [2][4] Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in September has increased to 93.6%, with expectations of nearly three cuts throughout the year [2] - The soft non-farm payroll data in July raises concerns about employment, making a rate cut a reasonable action for the Federal Reserve [3] - The upcoming Jackson Hole conference may provide signals regarding potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3] Core Inflation Dynamics - Core goods prices have risen for four consecutive months, driven by tariff impacts on furniture and used car prices [4] - Supercore inflation, excluding housing, has shown significant increases, particularly in medical services, influenced by recent policy changes [4] - The rising costs in medical services are attributed to cuts in healthcare spending and potential tariffs on drug imports, leading to increased insurance premiums [4]
2025年7月美国CPI数据点评:关税传导可控,降息预期升温
EBSCN· 2025-08-13 06:01
Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In July, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous month's value and slightly below the market expectation of 2.8%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.3% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2] - Core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% previously and above the market expectation of 3.0%[2] Group 2: Tariff Impact and Consumer Behavior - The impact of tariffs is becoming more evident, with July's goods inflation remaining stable at a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[3] - Prices in previously affected sectors like clothing and appliances are showing signs of stabilization or decline, indicating that companies may be absorbing tariff costs due to weakened consumer demand[4] - Service inflation is rebounding, with significant increases in medical services (+0.8%), vehicle maintenance (+1.0%), and airfares (+4.0%) reflecting rising labor costs[5] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of weak employment data and moderate inflation figures, the expectation for a rate cut in September has risen to 94.3%, up from 85.9% the previous day[6] - The current inflation outlook suggests potential challenges for future rate cuts, as tariff impacts may continue to spread, leading to price increases that could eventually be passed on to consumers[6] - The tightening of immigration policies may also affect labor supply, potentially increasing service inflation persistence[6]
华泰证券:维持联储9月首次降息、年内2次降息的判断
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-13 00:11
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the transmission of tariffs to inflation in the U.S. is relatively mild, which reduces the constraints on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - The report maintains the prediction of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in September and two cuts within the year [1] - Research by Cavallo et al. (2025) shows that after the announcement of tariffs, the maximum increase in commodity prices occurs within 10-15 weeks, indicating a rapid transmission of tariffs [1] Group 2 - Despite the rapid transmission of tariffs, companies are only passing on 50-60% of the tariff pressure to consumers due to weak perceived demand, which prevents a larger increase in inflation [1] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates that the rise in tariffs in August may continue to moderately push up core inflation, but weak corporate demand and a weakening job market will limit the extent of inflation increases [1] - The report highlights that demand slowdown and accelerated deportation of illegal immigrants indicate that the job market will continue to face pressure in the third quarter [1]
华泰证券:维持美联储9月首次降息、年内2次降息的判断
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-13 00:09
Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S. is relatively mild, with companies passing on only 50-60% of tariff pressures to consumers, thus preventing a larger increase in inflation [1] Inflation and Tariffs - U.S. inflation data for July shows that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is moderate, with the maximum price increase occurring 10-15 weeks after the announcement of tariffs [1] - The report suggests that while tariffs may continue to gently push up core inflation due to an increase in tariffs in August, weak corporate demand and a weakening job market will limit the extent of inflationary pressure [1] Employment Market and Economic Outlook - The demand slowdown and accelerated efforts to deport illegal immigrants indicate that the job market will continue to face pressure in the third quarter [1] - The company maintains its forecast for a rate cut in September and two rate cuts within the year, reflecting the anticipated economic conditions [1]
宏观周报(第16期):英央行纠结中降息,美国“对等关税”生效-20250808
Huafu Securities· 2025-08-08 12:24
Group 1: UK Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Bank of England (BoE) faced challenges in lowering interest rates due to rising inflation expectations, ultimately deciding to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.0% on August 7, 2025[3] - The BoE raised its food inflation forecast for Q3 2025 by 1.5 percentage points to 5.0%, expecting it to rise further to 5.5% by the end of 2025[3] - The nominal yield on 10-year UK government bonds increased by 323 basis points from February 1, 2022, to August 6, 2025, indicating a steepening yield curve[4] Group 2: US Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US is expected to impact global economies, with significant implications for non-US developed economies[5] - Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 0.7 thousand to 226 thousand, suggesting potential upward revisions in future employment data[5] - The US labor market shows signs of cooling, but strong consumer spending and non-residential investment contrast with the weak demand seen in the UK and other non-US developed economies[5] Group 3: Global Economic Trends - The recent tariffs imposed by the US range from 10% to 41%, affecting various trade partners, including China, and potentially leading to a restructuring of global supply chains[6] - The dollar index is expected to rebound after a temporary decline, which may put pressure on the Chinese yuan[6] - The report suggests that the People's Bank of China may consider a small rate cut of 10 basis points to stimulate demand in the real estate market[6]
-美联储那些事儿:美联储7月议息会议:等待看到更多价格传导
Ping An Securities· 2025-07-31 09:28
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Fed decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5% in the July 2025 meeting, with some members opposing and supporting a 25BP rate cut [8]. - Powell's stance is hawkish, and he has no pre - set expectations for the September policy decision, which dampens market rate - cut expectations [8]. - The certainty of a September rate cut by the Fed is low. If the unemployment rate remains stable or slightly rises in the next two months, the Fed may keep the rate unchanged to wait for tariff transmission results [9]. - If inflation does not rise significantly in the next two months, the bond market opportunities will increase in the fourth quarter; if inflation rises significantly, the US Treasury yields may rise further. It is recommended to maintain a relatively short duration in the short term [9]. - The US dollar index has rebounded to around 100 points. Short - term dollar short - covering may bring some upward space, and the view that the US dollar index will operate in the 95 - 105 range is maintained [6][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fed Meeting Decision - In the July 2025 meeting, the Fed kept the policy rate at 4.25 - 4.5% unchanged. Members Bowman and Waller voted against and supported a 25BP rate cut this month [8]. Powell's Stance - Powell adheres to data - dependence and has no policy expectations for September, which hits market rate - cut expectations [8]. - In terms of inflation, Powell aims to prevent one - time price increases from turning into continuous inflation, hopes to maintain a moderately restrictive monetary policy, and believes that tariff transmission to prices may be slower than expected [8][10]. - Regarding employment, Powell thinks the job market is relatively stable despite some downward risks [5][10]. - On economic growth, Powell admits that the overall economic growth has slowed down, and large fluctuations in net exports may affect consumer spending, making some signals difficult to interpret. He also believes that although consumer growth has slowed down, consumers' credit conditions are good [5][10]. Market Reaction - After the Fed's press conference, the market lowered the expectation of a September rate cut. Short - term interest rates rose significantly, the US dollar continued to rise, and the US stock market was under pressure. As of 4:30 Beijing time, the 2Y and 10Y US Treasury yields rose by 6.8BP and 2.8BP respectively compared with before the meeting, the US dollar index rose 0.6% to around 100 points, and the S&P 500 fell 0.4% at the close [9]. Outlook for September Fed Meeting - The certainty of a September rate cut by the Fed is not high. If the unemployment rate remains stable or slightly rises in the next two months, the Fed may keep the rate unchanged to wait for longer - term tariff transmission results [9]. Outlook for US Treasury Yields - If inflation does not rise significantly in the next two months, the bond market opportunities will increase in the fourth quarter; if inflation rises significantly, the US Treasury yields may rise further. It is recommended to maintain a relatively short duration in the short term, and the downward revision of the rate - cut expectation provides some allocation opportunities [9]. Outlook for US Dollar Index - After the US - EU trade agreement, the US dollar index has generally risen and has now rebounded to around 100 points. Short - term dollar short - covering may bring some upward space. Without a substantial weakening signal in the US labor market and continuous rate cuts by the Fed, the view that the US dollar index will operate in the 95 - 105 range is maintained [6][9].