Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S. is relatively mild, with companies passing on only 50-60% of tariff pressures to consumers, thus preventing a larger increase in inflation [1] Inflation and Tariffs - U.S. inflation data for July shows that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is moderate, with the maximum price increase occurring 10-15 weeks after the announcement of tariffs [1] - The report suggests that while tariffs may continue to gently push up core inflation due to an increase in tariffs in August, weak corporate demand and a weakening job market will limit the extent of inflationary pressure [1] Employment Market and Economic Outlook - The demand slowdown and accelerated efforts to deport illegal immigrants indicate that the job market will continue to face pressure in the third quarter [1] - The company maintains its forecast for a rate cut in September and two rate cuts within the year, reflecting the anticipated economic conditions [1]

Group 1: UK Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Bank of England (BoE) faced challenges in lowering interest rates due to rising inflation expectations, ultimately deciding to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.0% on August 7, 2025[3] - The BoE raised its food inflation forecast for Q3 2025 by 1.5 percentage points to 5.0%, expecting it to rise further to 5.5% by the end of 2025[3] - The nominal yield on 10-year UK government bonds increased by 323 basis points from February 1, 2022, to August 6, 2025, indicating a steepening yield curve[4] Group 2: US Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US is expected to impact global economies, with significant implications for non-US developed economies[5] - Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 0.7 thousand to 226 thousand, suggesting potential upward revisions in future employment data[5] - The US labor market shows signs of cooling, but strong consumer spending and non-residential investment contrast with the weak demand seen in the UK and other non-US developed economies[5] Group 3: Global Economic Trends - The recent tariffs imposed by the US range from 10% to 41%, affecting various trade partners, including China, and potentially leading to a restructuring of global supply chains[6] - The dollar index is expected to rebound after a temporary decline, which may put pressure on the Chinese yuan[6] - The report suggests that the People's Bank of China may consider a small rate cut of 10 basis points to stimulate demand in the real estate market[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Fed decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5% in the July 2025 meeting, with some members opposing and supporting a 25BP rate cut [8]. - Powell's stance is hawkish, and he has no pre - set expectations for the September policy decision, which dampens market rate - cut expectations [8]. - The certainty of a September rate cut by the Fed is low. If the unemployment rate remains stable or slightly rises in the next two months, the Fed may keep the rate unchanged to wait for tariff transmission results [9]. - If inflation does not rise significantly in the next two months, the bond market opportunities will increase in the fourth quarter; if inflation rises significantly, the US Treasury yields may rise further. It is recommended to maintain a relatively short duration in the short term [9]. - The US dollar index has rebounded to around 100 points. Short - term dollar short - covering may bring some upward space, and the view that the US dollar index will operate in the 95 - 105 range is maintained [6][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fed Meeting Decision - In the July 2025 meeting, the Fed kept the policy rate at 4.25 - 4.5% unchanged. Members Bowman and Waller voted against and supported a 25BP rate cut this month [8]. Powell's Stance - Powell adheres to data - dependence and has no policy expectations for September, which hits market rate - cut expectations [8]. - In terms of inflation, Powell aims to prevent one - time price increases from turning into continuous inflation, hopes to maintain a moderately restrictive monetary policy, and believes that tariff transmission to prices may be slower than expected [8][10]. - Regarding employment, Powell thinks the job market is relatively stable despite some downward risks [5][10]. - On economic growth, Powell admits that the overall economic growth has slowed down, and large fluctuations in net exports may affect consumer spending, making some signals difficult to interpret. He also believes that although consumer growth has slowed down, consumers' credit conditions are good [5][10]. Market Reaction - After the Fed's press conference, the market lowered the expectation of a September rate cut. Short - term interest rates rose significantly, the US dollar continued to rise, and the US stock market was under pressure. As of 4:30 Beijing time, the 2Y and 10Y US Treasury yields rose by 6.8BP and 2.8BP respectively compared with before the meeting, the US dollar index rose 0.6% to around 100 points, and the S&P 500 fell 0.4% at the close [9]. Outlook for September Fed Meeting - The certainty of a September rate cut by the Fed is not high. If the unemployment rate remains stable or slightly rises in the next two months, the Fed may keep the rate unchanged to wait for longer - term tariff transmission results [9]. Outlook for US Treasury Yields - If inflation does not rise significantly in the next two months, the bond market opportunities will increase in the fourth quarter; if inflation rises significantly, the US Treasury yields may rise further. It is recommended to maintain a relatively short duration in the short term, and the downward revision of the rate - cut expectation provides some allocation opportunities [9]. Outlook for US Dollar Index - After the US - EU trade agreement, the US dollar index has generally risen and has now rebounded to around 100 points. Short - term dollar short - covering may bring some upward space. Without a substantial weakening signal in the US labor market and continuous rate cuts by the Fed, the view that the US dollar index will operate in the 95 - 105 range is maintained [6][9].

美联储理事库格勒：核心商品通胀反映了关税的传导。 ...

各位朋友，近美国6月的通胀数据出炉了，说实话，这次的数据没有什么惊喜，也没有什么爆点——基本上符合市场预期。核心通胀连续第五个月没有超 出预期，走势还是挺平稳的。 你要是觉得通胀不会太严重，也有理由啊，"企业为了留住客户，在需求疲软的情况下也不敢乱涨价，通胀传导可能会非常慢，甚至影响不大。" 所以现在的情况是，谁也说服不了谁，数据也没法让某一派完全站上风口。 Timiraos还提到，6月这份通胀数据，其实不算特别温和，比5月稍微硬点。基础物价的环比涨幅是0.23%，听起来没啥，但和过去12个月的平均差不多。 所以这也说明，6月这个数据就是个正常表现，不惊不喜。 那接下来怎么办？政策制定者要看后面几个月的数据，尤其是7月和8月。因为那时候，关税传导的效果才可能真正显现。如果到时候物价真的明显上涨 了，那就说明关税的影响来了，美联储可能就得更谨慎地评估通胀风险了。 不过，这并不代表市场就能松口气了。大因为现在很多人都在关注一个问题：特朗普加的那些关税，怎么还没"发力"？按理说，这应该会推高商品价格 吧？但目前来看，这种传导效应还没完全展现出来。 这时候，出场的是"新美联储通讯社"的记者Nick Timiraos。 ...

关税传导效应已开始显现，美国6月CPI数据在表面疲软背后隐藏着关键的结构性变化。 尽管6月核心CPI月环比仅上涨0.2%（低于预期），但核心商品价格出现自2月以来首次明显上涨，家庭用品、服装等受关税影响的品类价格大幅上涨。各大 投行目前预计核心PCE将显著强于核心CPI，可能达到0.29%-0.34%的月环比涨幅，这将削弱美联储今年降息的理由，强化其维持当前政策立场的决心。 家庭用品价格月环比上涨0.98%，为2022年1月以来最大涨幅； 服装价格上涨0.43%； 娱乐商品价格上涨0.77%； 核心商品上涨的同时，核心服务（比如住宿、机票等）价格下降。其中，酒店住宿价格连续4个月下降，机票价格连续5个月下降。美银表示，从银行的消费 数据和机场安检人数来看，需求正在放缓。 巴克莱估计，美国贸易加权有效关税率为14-15%，远高于去年的2.5%，预计约50%的关税成本将传导至价格，这一假设与美联储调查一致。 表面疲软掩盖结构性变化 6月CPI数据初看温和：核心CPI月环比上涨0.23%，略低于市场预期的0.25%-0.30%，年同比从2.8%升至2.9%。然而，这一表面的疲软掩盖了重要的结构性变 化。 据追风交易 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 美国 6 月核心 CPI 环比回升至 0.23%，虽不及彭博一致预期的 0.3%，但分 项显示关税影响已经有所显现；核心 CPI 同比小幅上行 0.1pp 至 2.9%，符 合预期；CPI 环比从 5 月的 0.08%升至 0.29%，符合预期，同比小幅上行 0.3pp 至 2.7%，略高于预期的 2.6%。6 月核心通胀环比虽不及预期，但受 关税影响比较大的分项通胀均有所回升，显示关税的传导仍在持续，这也导 致美债收益率先下后上：截至北京时间 22:30，联储降息预期下行 2bp 至 44bp，9 月降息概率降至 54%，2y、10y 美债收益率分别上行 6bp、3bp 至 3.95%、4.46%，美元指数上涨 0.4%至 98.4，美股高开后回落。 从分项来看，6 月核心商品、核心服务分项均有不同程度反弹，特别是核心 商品中受关税影响较大的一些分项，但由于二手车、新车等偏弱拖累了核心 CPI 整体涨幅。具体来看， 往前看，关税传导或进一步推高核心商品通胀，但考虑到就业市场后续或有 所放缓，我们维持联储 9 月和 12 月两次降息的判断。6 月 CPI 数据显示进 口依赖度高的商品通胀已 ...

中信证券：美联储7月降息的可能性小、年内最多降息两次 7月15日，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，6月CPI同比上涨2.7%，为今年2月以来的最高水平。环比方 面，CPI上涨0.3%，符合预期。此外，美国6月核心CPI同比上涨2.9%，环比涨0.2%，连续第五个月低于 市场预期。 方正证券指出，6月CPI数据略有升温但总体并未太超市场预期，关税影响仍较为有限，很大程度源于 库存托底，但第三季度关税冲击或持续体现，滞胀压力或加大，其中经济下行压力大于通胀上行风险： 从6月份的非农和通胀数据看，美国经济尚未见到失速风险，通胀压力也相对可控，暂未出现市场预期 的滞胀风险。预计7月美联储将维持观望，9月或开启降息。 华泰证券：维持美联储9月和12月两次降息的判断 华泰证券表示，往前看，关税传导或进一步推高核心商品通胀，但考虑到就业市场后续或有所放缓，维 持美联储9月和12月两次降息的判断。6月CPI数据显示进口依赖度高的商品通胀已经有所回升，证伪了 海外出口商降价，关税不传导的说法。考虑到5月美国加权进口关税税率仅为8.7%，且部分企业通过消 耗库存推迟了价格的传导，往前看，预计关税对通胀的传导将进一步显现，短期或推高美 ...

新华财经北京7月16日电美国6月CPI涨速如期加快，美国国债收益率在数据发布后大幅跃升。截至周二 （7月15日）纽市尾盘，10年期美债收益率涨约5个基点，近4.49%；2年期美债收益率涨4个基点至 3.94%。20年期和30年期美债收益率均涨超4个基点，自5月下旬以来，再次站上5%。 达拉斯联储主席洛根也支持维持利率不变，以继续为通胀降温。 不过，美国总统特朗普15日仍重申美联储现在就应该降息，"鉴于通胀非常低，美联储应当降息3个百分 点"。美国财政部副部长福尔肯德也质疑美联储的立场是否正确。他认为，"整体而言，（消费者价格） 指数朝着低于美联储（2%通胀）目标的水平回归。" 华泰证券分析说，往前看，关税传导或进一步推高核心商品通胀，但考虑到就业市场后续或有所放缓， 仍维持联储9月和12月两次降息的判断。6月CPI数据显示进口依赖度高的商品通胀已经有所回升，证伪 了海外出口商降价，关税不传导的说法。考虑到5月美国加权进口关税税率仅为8.7%，且部分企业通过 消耗库存推迟了价格的传导，预计关税对通胀的传导未来将进一步显现，短期或推高美国通胀。纽约联 储的调查也佐证，88%的制造业企业以及82%服务业企业选择在3 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains the judgment that the Federal Reserve will implement rate cuts in September and December, considering the potential impact of tariffs on core goods inflation and a possible slowdown in the labor market [1] Inflation and Tariffs - The June CPI data indicates a rebound in inflation for goods with high import dependence, contradicting claims that tariffs do not translate into consumer prices [1] - The weighted average import tariff rate in the U.S. was only 8.7% in May, and some companies have delayed price transmission by consuming inventory [1] - It is anticipated that the impact of tariffs on inflation will become more evident, potentially pushing U.S. inflation higher in the short term [1] Business Sentiment - A survey by the New York Fed shows that 88% of manufacturing firms and 82% of service firms plan to pass on tariff costs to consumers within three months [1] - Jerome Powell stated during the June FOMC press conference that the Fed needs to observe the impact of tariffs over the summer, suggesting that the rise in inflation may already be within the Fed's expectations [1]