Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that certainty is a scarce commodity in the Chinese economy, advocating for a shift from merely stabilizing to creating sustainable growth momentum [4][17]. Economic Performance - Over the past five years, China's economic output has consistently crossed significant thresholds, reaching 110, 120, 130, and 140 trillion yuan, with manufacturing value added maintaining the world's top position for 16 consecutive years [6]. - The focus is on long-term stability rather than short-term speed, likening the economy to a robust net that can withstand external shocks [7]. Consumer Demand - The real breakthrough for the economy lies in domestic demand, with the article questioning not whether to consume, but rather the willingness and capability to do so [9]. - Policies are shifting from merely issuing consumption vouchers to enhancing supply, such as promoting high-efficiency and intelligent upgrades through trade-in programs [10]. Technological Integration - New productive forces are not just theoretical but are becoming integral to daily life, enhancing customer service, infrastructure like charging stations, and creating higher-paying jobs [13]. - The upgrade of traditional industries serves as a foundation, while new technologies act as accelerators, supported by patient capital in a long-term investment approach [14]. Openness and Market Dynamics - The article notes a 30% year-on-year increase in inbound and outbound travelers in Hainan's first month of customs clearance, with international institutions raising growth forecasts for 2026 by 0.3 percentage points [15]. - The combination of a unified market and institutional openness is reducing friction costs for businesses, indicating a calculated approach rather than an emotional response [16]. Conclusion - Certainty can be constructed as a competitive advantage, and transforming stability into progress will help the Chinese economy avoid being swayed by emotional fluctuations [17][18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai zinc will undergo wide - range adjustments, and attention should be paid to the range of 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. The upstream zinc mine imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are in production reduction at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore procurement has intensified, processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, and the profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, with production expected to continue to be restricted. The export window may close again. The downstream market is turning to the off - season, and overall demand is weak, with only some policy - supported areas like the automobile sector showing bright spots. The spot premium is at a low level, and domestic social inventory has slightly increased, while LME zinc inventory is stable. Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted, with both long and short positions trading cautiously [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - Shanghai zinc main contract closing price: 24,395 yuan/ton, down 490 yuan; 03 - 04 month contract spread: - 55 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan - LME three - month zinc quote: 3,305.5 US dollars/ton, down 17.5 US dollars - Shanghai zinc total open interest: 194,134 lots, down 6,190 lots - Shanghai zinc top 20 net open interest: 2,011 lots, down 4 lots - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged - SHFE inventory: 65,154 tons, down 7,997 tons; LME inventory: 108,200 tons, down 775 tons [3] 3.2. Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 0 zinc spot price: 24,580 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan - Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 zinc spot price: 24,160 yuan/ton, down 510 yuan - ZN main contract basis: 185 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan - LME zinc cash - 3 months spread: - 22.23 US dollars/ton, up 3.66 US dollars - Kunming 50% zinc concentrate ex - works price: 21,710 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan - Shanghai 85% - 86% crushed zinc price: 16,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3. Upstream Situation - WBMS zinc supply - demand balance: - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons - ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance: - 7,700 tons, down 4,900 tons - ILZSG global zinc mine production: 1.0627 million tons, down 11,900 tons - Domestic refined zinc production: 675,000 tons, up 21,000 tons - Zinc ore imports: 462,600 tons, down 53,900 tons [3] 3.4. Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports: 8,760.85 tons, down 9,469.07 tons - Refined zinc exports: 27,266.66 tons, down 15,548.89 tons - Zinc social inventory: 111,300 tons, up 4,100 tons [3] 3.5. Downstream Situation - Galvanized sheet production: 2.36 million tons, up 20,000 tons; sales: 2.36 million tons - New housing construction area: 58.76996 million square meters; housing completion area: 60.34813 million square meters, down 20.8942 million square meters - Automobile production: 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles - Air - conditioner production: 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units [3] 3.6. Options Market - Zinc at - the - money call option implied volatility: 31.1%, down 5.39% - Zinc at - the - money put option implied volatility: 31.1%, down 5.39% - Zinc at - the - money option 20 - day historical volatility: 0.08%; 60 - day historical volatility: 18.91%, up 0.02% [3] 3.7. Industry News - The People's Bank of China focuses on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises. - The US ADP employment data in January was significantly lower than expected, with only 22,000 new jobs added, indicating weakening momentum in the labor market at the beginning of the year. The growth was entirely driven by the education and healthcare service sectors, while many key industries such as professional business services and manufacturing experienced employment contractions. - The US ISM services PMI index in January was 53.8, remaining at the highest level since October 2024, better than expected. Business activity rebounded, but new order growth slowed down, employment hardly expanded, and the price index reached a three - month high. [3]

2、家电家居与以旧换新领域：这是本轮"两新"政策的最直接受益者。国家层面对于汽车、家电以旧换 新的补贴力度加大，有效降低了消费者的换新成本，刺激了存量市场的更新需求。特别是智能化、绿色 化家电产品，更符合当前的消费升级趋势。 近日浙商证券首席经济学家李超表示，从整体的政策导向看，2026年财政政策有必要保持积极态势，维 持一定的赤字水平。同时，从货币政策角度看，适度宽松状态下降准降息仍会存在。对于中央经济工作 会议确定的2026年经济工作头项重点任务"内需"，李超指出，从扩大内需角度看，2026年需要更加注重 消费的重要性。过去在扩大内需问题上，房地产是最主要的逆周期变量，消费往往被当作顺周期变量。 而未来，市场需要认识到，消费将是最重要的逆周期变量。"对于2026年的中国股市，不需要再特别关 注利率，而需要更加关注风险偏好。若市场信心能保持长期相对乐观，股市仍有望通过估值抬升来延 续'慢牛'行情。"李超说。 市场相关领域梳理 1、食品饮料与白酒领域：该领域直接受益于内需扩大和居民消费意愿的回升。随着元旦、春节等传统 消费旺季的临近，礼赠、宴席等场景需求有望集中释放。 据《东方财富Choice数据》消息，A股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of the phrase "爱你老己" reflects a growing trend of self-care among young people, emphasizing the importance of living for oneself while also gently reminding elders to do the same [1] Group 1: Consumer Trends - The term "谷子" representing "emotional economy" was included in the top ten buzzwords of 2025, indicating a shift in consumer attitudes towards self-fulfillment and emotional well-being [1] - New policies aimed at enhancing consumer supply and demand adaptability focus on expanding diverse interest consumption and innovative consumption scenarios, reflecting the evolving expectations of the public [2] - The interaction between supply and demand in the consumer market is becoming a dominant theme, driven by policies that encourage personalized and diversified consumption [2] Group 2: Policy Implications - Recent consumption and domestic demand policies are designed not just to stimulate short-term consumption but to build a healthier, more sustainable consumer ecosystem centered on people's needs [3] - The shift from material satisfaction to achieving spiritual resonance in consumption is supported by strong policy backing, which is crucial for continuously releasing consumption potential [3] - The alignment of personal consumption trends with national policies fosters a vibrant economic environment, enhancing both individual well-being and overall economic growth [2][3]

内需的动能仍然没有完全释放。 1月份，统计局公布了2025年国内经济数据，上年度实现了5%的增长目标，不过从季度来看，2025年GDP增速逐 季回落，四季度降至4.5%，这也说明补贴刺激效果，随着时间的推移，出现了边际效益递减。 从结构上看，2025年出口表现超预期，工业生产较快增长，四季度服务消费和物价也有所改善。但内需不足问 题仍然显著，零售改善幅度也不及预期，以房地产为代表的投资降幅扩大，呈现出供给强、内需弱的持续低 位。 2026年，是十五五的开局之年，经济走势也备受我们关注，去年12月的经济工作会议更是强调要释放潜力和提 升效能，而不是加大刺激力度。 在这样的背景之下，内需向何处去？ 要了解2026年的经济形势，就必须要对2025年做一个回望总结。 2025年宏观经济走势前高后低。今年上半年，在财政前置发力、以旧换新和出口强劲的带动下，经济实现了 5.3%的较快增长。 到了下半年，随着边际效益递减，三季度增速放缓至4.8%，四季度进一步降至4.5%，反映出内需还有待提振。 从利好来看，去年利好的因素有两点。第一就是出口韧性超预期。2025年，我国出口金额同比增长5.5%，贸易 顺差逼近1.2万亿美元 ...

中国宏观周报（2026 年 1 月第 5 周） 宏 2026 年 2 月 2 日 观 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 石油化工价格上涨 证券分析师 平安观点： 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 从高频数据观察，本周部分原材料生产环比恢复，1 月末新房成交企稳回 升，去年同期低基数也有助推。工业品价格指数环比回升，结构分化，石 油化工产品表现强于有色金属及黑色原材料。 1. 工业：本周生产环比分化。1）原材料方面，本周钢铁建材和板材产量提 升，水泥熟料产能利用率、浮法玻璃开工率也有恢复，石油沥青开工率、 钢铁建材表观需求环比回落。2）中下游方面，本周纺织聚酯开工率、织造 业开工率季节性走弱；汽车半钢胎开工率环比提升，全钢胎开工率环比回 落。据乘联会统计，1 月第一周至第二周，全国纯燃料轻型车同比-85%， 12 月同比-29%；混合动力与插混总体生产同比-65%，12 月同比-26%， 混动插混类汽车生产表现较燃油车 ...

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In January, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down from 50.1% in December[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4%, compared to 50.2% in the previous month[2] - The decline in PMI is attributed to the upcoming Spring Festival and a high base effect from the previous month[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - High-tech and midstream equipment manufacturing PMIs remain above the threshold at 52.0% and 50.1% respectively, despite slight declines[2] - Downstream consumer goods manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3%, indicating a significant decrease of 2.1 percentage points[2] - The construction PMI fell to 48.8%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points, reflecting seasonal impacts and a high base from the previous month[2] Group 3: Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 56.1%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points, while the factory price index reached 50.6%, up by 1.7 percentage points[2] - This marks the first time in 20 months that the factory price index has risen above the critical point, suggesting a potential narrowing of PPI declines[2] Group 4: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The production index decreased to 50.6%, down by 1.1 percentage points, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, down by 1.6 percentage points[2] - The new export orders index also declined to 47.8%, indicating a slowdown in export momentum compared to the previous month[2] Group 5: Policy and Economic Outlook - The first batch of "two new" funds has been allocated, and a coordinated fiscal and financial policy to boost domestic demand has been deployed[2] - Continued attention is needed on marginal changes in investment, consumer performance during the Spring Festival, and new policies from the upcoming Two Sessions[2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that France's economy is projected to grow by 0.9% in 2025, slightly above the government's previous forecast of 0.7% and in line with market expectations, but still lower than the 1.1% growth anticipated for 2024 [1] - The main drivers of France's economic growth in 2025 are expected to be household consumption and public spending, with overall investment remaining stable [1] - Despite the impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade, foreign trade is anticipated to be a significant contributor to France's economic growth in 2025, particularly in the aerospace, shipbuilding, and digital services sectors [1] Group 2 - The economic growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2025 is set at 1.5%, while the EU is expected to grow by 1.6% [2] - Germany's economy is projected to experience a slight growth of 0.3% in 2025, narrowly avoiding a third consecutive year of recession, with the government revising its 2026 growth forecast down to 1% [2]

成长性，得益于消费升级新需求。 时下，车厘子大量上市。不少消费者有这种感受：进口水果的价格更亲民了，实现"水果自由"的内涵更 丰富了。从欧洲的红酒、巧克力，到南美洲的肉类、鱼虾，再到大洋洲的乳品，全球好物纷至沓来，不 断满足人民美好生活需要。 政策引领，促需求释放。去年，消费品以旧换新政策惠及超3.6亿人次，带动相关商品销售额超2.6万亿 元。2025年，内需对经济增长的贡献率超67%，其中消费贡献率达52%，比上年提高5个百分点。英国 《金融时报》刊文："不要低估中国消费者。" 市场成长性越强，对全球资源越具有吸引力。中国市场正是凭借极强的成长性，吸引外资布局中国 近期发布的两则新闻，很值得关注。 一则是，2025年，中国货物进口规模再创新高，达18.5万亿元。另一则是中国美国商会发布的调查报告 显示，对中国市场增长持乐观态度的受访在华美企比例显著上升，七成以上企业不考虑转移在华业务， 近六成企业计划加大在华投资。在世界开放指数下滑、部分大宗商品国际市场价格下行的大背景下，中 国大市场的魅力凸显。 市场是当今世界最稀缺的资源。市场成长性越强，对全球资源越具有吸引力。中国市场正是凭借极强的 成长性，吸引外资布 ...

"内需"是当前观察中国经济的关键词 。 最新数据显示 ， 2025年中国社会消费品零售总额首次突破50万亿元，消费对经济增长的贡献率稳 固在52%。然而， 经济"暖数据"之下，居民消费与企业投资意愿偏冷的"温差"依然明显，多位经济 学家警示复苏的基础并不牢固。 "2025年的整个宏观经济积极一点说是处在经济复苏的早期阶段。"CF40资深研究员、中国社科院 世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌表示，复苏的基础还不牢固，内生增长的动力还得不到支撑。 这考验宏观调控的智慧。 01 复苏进行时：基础是否牢固？ 国家统计局近日发布数据显示， 2025年中国国内生产总值（GDP）首次跃上140万亿元新台阶，按 不变价格计算，比上年增长5.0%。 2025年社会消费品零售总额突破50万亿元，比上年增长 3.7%。全年服务零售额比上年增长5.5%，最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率达52%。 金融市场上，股票市场、人民币汇率、社融增速、企业存款等金融指标有明显提升，企业盈利止住了 连续多年的下行趋势，消费、劳动力市场总体运行平稳。 " 2025年的整个宏观经济积极一点说 是 处在 经济复苏的早期阶段。 "张斌同时强调，"复苏的基 础还 ...