Core Viewpoint - The private equity firms believe that the A-share bull market is ongoing, with a shift from liquidity-driven to fundamentals-driven growth expected in 2026, leading to increased stock selection difficulty and significant investment opportunities in areas such as overseas expansion, artificial intelligence, anti-involution, and domestic demand [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is still in a bull phase, with the valuation uplift driven by a loose liquidity environment in 2025 [2]. - The current stock-to-deposit ratio indicates that equity assets remain attractive, with room for residents to shift asset allocation towards the stock market [2]. - The ratio of total A-share market capitalization to household savings is around 0.65, suggesting that the bull market has not yet concluded [2]. Group 2: Fundamental Changes - A significant transformation in the underlying logic of the A-share market is noted, with improving free cash flow and increasing dividend and buyback ratios, expected to exceed 40% in 2025 [2]. - The transition from old to new economic drivers is underway, supported by a stable market mechanism from policy [2]. - The overall market risk appetite is bolstered by favorable liquidity conditions and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in 2026 are expected to focus on overseas expansion, artificial intelligence, anti-involution, and domestic demand [6][7]. - Strategic resource stocks, particularly copper and aluminum, are viewed positively due to limited supply growth and rising costs [6]. - High-growth sectors such as artificial intelligence, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industry are highlighted as attractive investment areas [6][7]. Group 4: Economic Recovery and Market Dynamics - The economic recovery is anticipated to be supported by domestic price recovery and the implementation of anti-involution policies, which may lead to a shift in market style from growth to value and cyclical stocks [5]. - The expected GDP resilience and ongoing domestic demand expansion are likely to contribute to a favorable investment environment [5]. - Historical data suggests that during periods of earnings recovery, the market can achieve significant returns despite limited valuation increases [5].

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 [Table_Author] 解运亮 宏观首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521040002 联系电话：010-83326858 邮 箱：xieyunliang@cindasc.com 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱：mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] PMI 超预期背后的信号 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 31 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 [➢Table_Summary] 12 月制造业 PMI 重返扩张区间，且回升幅度超出市场普遍预期，从年末 制造业景气度的表现来看，我们认为可能释放了以下几点信号： ➢ 第一，12 月出口对经济的拉动作用或仍较强。新订单指数的快速增长是 此次超预期的关键支撑，12 月新订单指数为下半年以来首次进入扩张区 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly in the cyclical direction, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and consumption [1][7]. Core Views - The report highlights the recent emphasis from authoritative media and high-level officials on the importance of domestic demand, which is crucial for the industry [7]. - Despite a recent pullback in the high-end liquor sector, the report anticipates a recovery in sales and pricing balance in the upcoming quarters, with expectations of a double-digit decline in sales year-on-year for Q1 2026, followed by stabilization in Q2 and a potential turning point in Q3 [7][8]. - The report suggests that high-quality liquor companies are currently in a strategic allocation phase, with recommendations for specific brands such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye [7][8]. - For the consumer goods sector, the report identifies systemic opportunities, with a focus on CPI as a core observation indicator, predicting gradual improvement in food CPI throughout the year [7][10]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.56% last week, with the liquor segment down by 0.20%, underperforming the broader market [6]. - The report notes that the top gainers included Anji Food (+29.65%) and Xichuan Food (+9%), while the biggest losers were Huanlejia (-16.35%) and Zhuangyuan Pasture (-13.19%) [6]. Liquor Sector - Moutai's bottle price is reported at 1550 RMB, with a week-on-week increase of 5 RMB, while the box price is 1560 RMB, also up by 5 RMB. Wuliangye's price remains stable at approximately 780 RMB, and Guojiao 1573 has decreased by 10 RMB to around 820 RMB [8][33]. - The Moutai dealer conference emphasized a market-oriented transformation, focusing on consumer-centric strategies and adjusting product offerings to stabilize market dynamics [8]. Consumer Goods Sector - The report recommends focusing on the restaurant supply chain, particularly in condiments and frozen foods, with specific recommendations for companies like Anji Food, Qianhe Flavor, and Tianwei Food [10]. - The dairy sector is expected to see an improved supply-demand balance in 2026, with recommendations for Yili and New Dairy [10]. Valuation Metrics - As of December 26, the food and beverage sector has a dynamic PE of 20.02x, with a premium rate of 21%, while the liquor sector has a dynamic PE of 18.50x, with a premium rate of 12% [34].

丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 当出口链回暖遭遇利润率回落 %% %% research.95579.com 1 ——1-11 月工业企业利润点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 11 月工业企业利润同比增速续降至-13.1%，与当月出口的走强出现明显分化，有部分行业利润 调整的影响在，但整体内需动能的趋弱也值得关注：11 月工业企业当月的库存、周转等指标均 在转差。年末，在外需支撑减弱，内需并未明显改善的情况下，企业经营压力或仍在不断累积， 且有进一步传导到就业市场的趋势。展望未来，2026 年上半年政策靠前发力实现"开门红"的 可能性仍较大，内需稳增长有望对冲外需不确定性，并推动企业利润长期企稳向好。 [Table_Author] 于博 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Title 当出口链回暖遭遇利润率回落 2] ——1-11 月工业企业利润点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 12 月 27 日，国家统计局公布数据：11 月规模以上工业企业利润总额同比 ...

12月25日，离岸人民币对美元升破7.0关口，为2024年9月以来首次；在岸人民币最高升至7.0061。当 天，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币 7.0392元，相较前一交易日中间价7.0471元，调升79个基点，续创2024年10月来新高。 中央经济工作会议在部署2026年经济工作时指出，要保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。人 民币在岸、离岸对美元汇率12月以来均保持强劲，这中间所涉及到的房地产、通胀、价差、利差等一系 列重要因素都不容忽视。野村中国首席经济学家陆挺认为，不如利用出口大幅增长带来的这一时间窗 口，通过结构性改革，来拉动内需，苦练内功，带动经济增长。 中美价差对人民币实际汇率形成怎样的支撑？物价水平将如何改变人民币实际汇率？房地产和汇率之间 存在着什么样的关系？需要引导人民币继续升值吗？汇率政策的安全边际应该如何界定？汇率政策在明 年整体的货币政策中的影响权重如何？明年美联储的货币政策调整对汇率有什么样的影响？第一财经 《首席对策》专访野村中国首席经济学家陆挺。 过去5年中美汇率变化不大 真正的差别表现在物价上 预言明年结束负通胀为时 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Platinum, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferroalloy, Glass, Coke, Coking Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Piglets, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Bitumen, MEG, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, Butadiene, Ethylene, Propylene Oxide, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1][2] Core Views - The stock index is expected to remain strong in the short - term after breaking through the previous shock range, while the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy but face interest - rate risks in the short - term [1]. - Metal prices are mainly affected by macro - sentiment, industrial fundamentals, and policy factors. For example, nickel and stainless - steel prices are influenced by Indonesian policies, and tin prices are affected by industry initiatives and geopolitical situations [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, factors such as OPEC+ policies, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes affect prices. For instance, BR rubber is supported by cost and market sentiment, and PTA benefits from strong PX prices and high polyester consumption [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as production expectations, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. For example, palm oil has a bearish outlook due to supply expectations, and cotton is in a state of "supported but no drive" [1]. Summary by Categories Stock Index and Bonds - Stock Index: The market sentiment and liquidity are in good condition. The index broke through the previous shock range and is expected to remain strong in the short - term [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: The industrial situation is weak, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, resulting in high - level oscillations [1]. - Aluminum: The driving force in the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals are weak, and the price remains low in the short - term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, and the negative factors have basically been realized. The price is expected to oscillate strongly as market risk appetite improves [1]. - Nickel: Global nickel inventory is high, but supply concerns have led to a recent sharp rebound in Shanghai nickel. The Indonesian policy has not been implemented but is difficult to disprove. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material price has stabilized, the social inventory has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [1]. - Tin: Affected by the industry initiative, the price oscillates weakly in the short - term. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa and the improved market risk appetite, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. - Gold: After reaching a record high, it may oscillate at a high level in the short - term due to strong US economic data and weakened interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Platinum: The domestic futures price has a large premium over the spot and foreign markets, and the market is expected to be volatile. Rational participation is recommended [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuela, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. - Bitumen: It follows crude oil in the short - term. The supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the profit is relatively high [1]. - BR Rubber: The transaction has improved, the cost has increased, and the market sentiment is strong due to rumors of a factory shutdown [1]. - PTA: The PX price is strong, the PTA device operates at a high load, and the polyester consumption is high [1]. - MEG: Supply - side news has stimulated a rebound, and the polyester downstream demand is better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The cost has some support, the market sentiment has improved slightly, but the inventory is high [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: High - frequency data has improved, but the supply in the producing areas is expected to be loose. Rebound selling is recommended [1]. - Cotton: It is currently in a state of "supported but no drive". Attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, and weather conditions in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous drive [1]. - Piglets: Affected by weather and supply - demand relationships, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with limited decline [1]. - Soybean Meal: There is a risk of selling pressure due to high - yield expectations, and the price is affected by reserve rumors [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, unilateral investment is recommended to be on the sidelines, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered [1]. - Logs: Affected by external quotes and spot price declines, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pigs: The supply is yet to be fully released, and the price is affected by demand support and inventory [1].

2025年，A股在政策、估值、盈利、资金四重支撑下走出了牛市行情。2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之 年，经济转型深化与政策发力预期叠加，A股市场细分赛道的分化愈发明显。 在这样的背景下，2026年的投资机会如何？驱动2026年行情的核心变量是什么？哪些领域可能成为市场 资金新的"共识"？对于这些问题，私募大佬们又有着怎样独到的判断？近日，《每日经济新闻》记者 （以下简称NBD）带着这些问题，专访了星石投资副总经理方磊。 由估值走向盈利驱动 NBD：从2025年市场表现来看，政策、资金、盈利三大要素的联动效应尤为明显，您认为这三者中哪 个是驱动2026年行情的核心变量？请结合来年的市场特征说明理由。 方磊：2026年驱动股市行情的核心变量是盈利要素，全市场将进入业绩释放期，股市将由估值驱动走向 盈利驱动，各个板块均有投资机会，2026年市场风格与2025年相比有望更为均衡。2025年，人工智能、 高端制造等科技成长板块景气度率先修复，顺周期等传统行业基本面及预期相对低迷，共同造成了科技 成长风格估值率先修复、累计涨幅突出的局面。 进入2026年，人工智能产业链景气度有望延续，虽然高估值可能会带来波动放大，但盈 ...

2025年末，食品饮料板块连续调整的第年，食品主题基金再度新发。 12月22~12月26日，食品ETF华夏（代码：159151）正在发行中。与2020年发行的食品饮料ETF（515170.SH）有所不同，食品ETF华夏（代码：159151） 跟踪中证全指食品指数（H30192.CSI），该指数剔除了白酒，更纯粹聚焦大众品，底部刚需韧性更强。其中调味发酵品（25.39%）、乳品（17.57%）、 肉制品（10.04%）、零食（6.60%）、预加工（5.69%）等细分行业，伊利股份为第一大权重股，其余权重股包括海天味业、双汇发展、安琪酵母、中粮 糖业、金龙鱼、安井食品、新诺威等。 从2025年前三季度来看，食品行业剔除白酒后收入、利润增速逐步平稳。其中，零食、软饮料、调味品三大细分子板块的收入增速居前，分别为 31.1%/10.8%/3.8%。 食品饮料行业及主要子板块收入及利润增速 | 板块 | | | 收入同比增速 | | | | | 图解膜系统的日 | | | | | 防承受因尽 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

2025 年 12 月 25 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 25 日 浙商早知道 市场总览 重要观点 重要点评 【浙商大制造中观策略 邱世梁/张菁】汽车零部件 行业深度：汽车轻量化浪潮下，以塑代钢空间广阔—— 20251223 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：12 月 24 日上证指数上涨 0.53%，沪深 300 上涨 0.29%，科创 50 上涨 0.9%，中证 1000 上涨 1.54%，创业 板指上涨 0.77%，恒生指数上涨 0.17% 行业：12 月 24 日表现最好的行业分别是国防军工（+2.88%)、电子（+2.12%)、建筑材料（+1.72%)、轻工制造 （+1.69%)、机械设备（+1.49%)，表现最差的行业分别是农林牧渔（-0.85%)、煤炭（-0.7%)、食品饮料（- 0.36%)、银行（-0.3%)、传媒（+0.01%)。 资金：12 月 24 日全 A 总 ...

制造业 PMI 小幅回升至 49.2%，非制造业商务活动指数降至 49.5%。 国际机构上调对中国 2025 年和 2026 年经济增长预期，工业转型升级 取得进展，但内需不足和收入乐观程度下降构成挑战。 政策建议包括：生产端优化提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业；投资端 扩大有效投资，激发民间投资活力；消费端提升居民消费能力，推进新 消费培育。短期财政政策应兜牢基层"三保"底线，规范税收优惠及财 政补贴政策。 预计 2026 年全球经济增速与 2025 年持平，中国 GDP 增长目标可设定 为 4.5%-5.0%。宏观政策将继续实施积极财政政策和适度宽松货币政 策。应重视科技创新与产业深度融合，培育科技企业家，并通过高科技 发展带动就业和民生改善。 包括：内需动能不足拖累整体生产，但外需扩张对 11 月生产端形成主要拉动 力量；冬季供暖需求推动采矿业增速提升，当月煤炭开采和洗选业同比增速为 7.5%；装备制造业占比持续提升，工业结构不断优化，其中电子、汽车行业增 速分别为 9.2%和 11.9%；高技术制造业引领工业高质量发展，规模以上高技 术制造业增加值同比增长 8.4%。 稳中求进、行稳致远的中国宏观经济 ...