Core Viewpoint - The Israeli central bank has decided to maintain the interest rate at 4.5% due to high political uncertainty, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict with Hamas and growing international isolation concerns [1] Economic Growth Projections - The central bank warns that economic growth will slow this year due to the intensifying conflict in Gaza and deteriorating international sentiment towards Israel [1] - The bank has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.5%, from a previous estimate of 3.3% made in July [1] - However, the growth forecast for 2026 has been slightly increased from 4.6% to 4.7%, contingent on the continuation of the Gaza conflict at varying intensities, with an expectation for it to conclude by the first quarter of 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% this week, with economists predicting a single rate cut in November, followed by a prolonged pause until Q3 2026 [1][2] - There is a divergence in institutional forecasts, with Westpac and Bloomberg holding a dovish stance predicting rates below 3% next year, while the National Australia Bank maintains a hawkish outlook expecting stability until May 2026 [1] - RBA Governor Michele Bullock's upcoming press conference is anticipated to emphasize a "data-dependent" and cautious policy approach [1] Group 2 - Post-pandemic, the RBA has attempted to balance "job preservation" and "price control," but renewed price pressures raise concerns, especially given the backdrop of anticipated multiple rate cuts [2] - The six-month annualized core inflation rate in Australia has surpassed that of other major economies, which may raise the threshold for rate cuts and attract capital inflows, supporting the Australian dollar and bond yields [4] - Despite claims of good progress in controlling inflation, recent monthly inflation indicators have accelerated to the upper limit of the RBA's 2%-3% target, driven by housing, food, and alcohol prices [7] Group 3 - Economists warn that rapid inflation data suggests rising price pressures, particularly in the services sector, leading institutions like NAB and Deutsche Bank to abandon predictions for a fourth rate cut this year [7] - The RBA's upcoming policy statement will be closely monitored for changes in language regarding price pressures, labor market weakness, and wage inflation [7] - The RBA will release its semi-annual financial stability assessment two days after the rate decision, which may provide further policy insights [7]

Market News - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) monthly report on September 30, with market attention on whether the manufacturing sector can continue its recovery trend [2] - The People's Bank of China will have 516.6 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing this week, with significant amounts maturing on Monday and Tuesday [3] - The China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation announced arrangements for securities fund clearing during the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [3] - New financial regulations will take effect on October 1, including the "Management Measures for the Protection of Permanent Basic Farmland" and various guidelines from the central bank and the CSRC [3] Sector Matters - Starting October 1, internet platform companies will officially report identity and income information of operators and employees as per new tax reporting regulations [6] - The Hefei International New Energy Vehicle Conference will be held from September 29 to October 5, focusing on smart connectivity, AI technology, chips, and supply chains [6] - The U.S. government will no longer provide tax credits for electric vehicles starting September 30 under the "Big and Beautiful" Act [6] Individual Stock Events - Zhongxin Co. announced that the U.S. Department of Commerce made a final anti-dumping ruling on "hot-formed molded fiber products" from China and Vietnam [8] - Yidao Information is planning a major asset restructuring involving the acquisition of stakes in two companies, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [8] - ST Tianmao announced that the Shenzhen Stock Exchange approved the voluntary termination of its stock listing, with delisting scheduled for September 30 [8] - New Light Optoelectronics received a notice of investigation against its controlling shareholder and CEO [8] - Koli announced plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 14.875 million shares, accounting for 2% of its total shares [8] Restricted Stock Unlocking - A total of 36 restricted stocks will be unlocked this week, with approximately 4.882 billion shares released, valued at around 40.081 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.3% from the previous week [16] - The highest unlocking value is from Ningbo Port, Wan Kai New Materials, and Jiao Cheng Ultrasound, with values of 13.202 billion yuan, 4.665 billion yuan, and 4.374 billion yuan respectively [20] New Stock Calendar - One new stock will be issued this week, with Daosheng Tianhe starting online subscriptions on September 29 at a price of 5.98 yuan per share [22] Market Outlook - The current market shows healthy trends in sectors like optical modules, PCB, innovative drugs, and non-ferrous metals, while innovative drugs are experiencing consolidation [24] - According to Everbright Strategy, the market is expected to continue its upward trend after the National Day holiday, with reasonable valuations and no significant overextension [25]

Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on September 28, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 181.7 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] Funding Conditions - The interbank funding market is relatively loose due to the absence of non-bank institutions as a significant demand side, leading to a slight decrease in the overnight repo weighted average rate, while the 7-day rate increased by over 2 basis points [3] - The overnight financing rate in the U.S. is currently at 4.18% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market is around 1.695% [6] Major Interbank Bond Yield Rates - The yields for various government bonds are as follows: - 1Y: 1.3500% - 2Y: 1.4500% - 3Y: 1.2650% - 5Y: 1.6150% - 7Y: 1.8050% - 10Y: 1.8000% [10] Recent City Investment Bonds (AAA) Yield Spread Trends - The article provides insights into the yield spread trends for city investment bonds, indicating market conditions [11] Upcoming Market Events - A total of 516.6 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature in the week of September 29 to October 3, with significant amounts maturing on Monday and Tuesday [12] - The three major exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen will be closed from October 1 to October 8 for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [12] Global Macro Insights - Key Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak this week, which may influence market expectations regarding monetary policy [14] - U.S. President Trump is set to meet with congressional leaders to discuss funding issues, with significant divisions remaining between parties [14]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) reported an increase in consumer inflation expectations for the Eurozone in August, supporting the stance of "not further lowering interest rates" [1] - Consumers expect prices to rise by 2.8% over the next 12 months, up from 2.6% in July, while three-year inflation expectations remain unchanged and five-year expectations slightly increased to 2.2% [1][3] - The current inflation rate in the Eurozone is stable at the target level of 2%, with officials expressing satisfaction with the current interest rate levels [3] Group 2 - Some ECB officials are concerned that inflation may fall below the target in the next two years, while others are focused on the impact of increased defense spending [3] - ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir stated that the bank has achieved its target and emphasized the need for patience and readiness for timely action [3] - The market anticipates an increase in the inflation rate to 2.3% this month [3] Group 3 - The ECB is closely monitoring food price trends, which are rising faster than other goods and services, with warnings that this could elevate overall inflation expectations [3] - The August survey revealed that consumer expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months remain stable at -1.2% [4] - Consumer expectations for the unemployment rate increased from 10.6% to 10.7%, while nominal income growth expectations rose to 1.1% from 1.0% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points reflects a response to economic data indicating a weakening job market, despite ongoing inflationary pressures [1][2][6] Economic Data and Employment - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut in 2025 after a nine-month interval [1] - August non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, significantly below market expectations and down from a revised 79,000 in July [1] - Revised data indicates that from April 2024 to March 2025, the U.S. added 911,000 fewer jobs than initially reported, highlighting a more sluggish employment market [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-over-year in August, the largest increase since January, with a median inflation forecast of 3% for the end of 2025, above the Fed's 2% target [2] - Powell emphasized that the rate cut was a data-driven decision aimed at mitigating risks from a softening job market, rather than a political maneuver [2][5] Political Dynamics and Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's desire for a more aggressive rate cut stems from the U.S. national debt exceeding $37 trillion, with interest payments becoming a significant budgetary concern [3] - The Fed's decision-making process is designed to resist short-term political pressures, with Powell receiving broad support from the financial and academic communities [5][6] - The Fed's 25 basis point cut is seen as a cautious response to economic conditions, maintaining its independence despite external pressures from the Trump administration [5][6] Market Reactions and Global Context - Following the rate cut announcement, U.S. stock indices initially rose before retreating, while the dollar experienced volatility, indicating mixed market reactions [4] - Approximately 90% of businesses plan to raise prices within three months, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns [4] - Global central banks are responding differently to the Fed's actions, with the European Central Bank remaining steady and the Bank of Japan considering rate hikes, showcasing varied economic conditions across regions [5]

Group 1 - The central bank maintained its key interest rate at zero, aligning with investor expectations [1] - Bank officials indicated a reluctance to further decrease the interest rate [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market remains strong due to expectations of future US liquidity easing, but there are still risks of stagflation in the US and geopolitical conflicts. In the long - term, there is a tendency for global asset allocation to shift towards gold, and short - term fluctuations can be dealt with by a low - buying strategy [2][3]. - The copper market is affected by macro factors and fundamentals. The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and domestic production has declined. The consumption is weak in the peak season, and short - term copper prices are expected to be in a high - level consolidation [5][9][11]. - The alumina market shows a weakening trend. The domestic and overseas spot prices are falling, and the import window is slightly open. The bauxite in Guinea has an incremental expectation, and the fundamentals are weak [13][16]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a stable and slightly strong alloy ingot spot price. The enterprises in some regions are preparing raw materials for the National Day holiday, and the downstream demand is picking up [18]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by macro factors and supply - demand. The price is expected to be weak in the short term until the consumption side improves significantly [22][25]. - The zinc market may maintain a slight surplus in September. The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and the downstream has a replenishment expectation, but the amplitude is limited. The overseas inventory reduction may support the price, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [27][30]. - The lead market has mixed long and short factors. The supply may increase, and the downstream may stock up before the holiday. The lead price is expected to oscillate at a high level [32][34]. - The nickel market is slightly boosted by the Indonesian policy, but the impact on the supply is limited. The net import is expected to decline, and the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [36][37]. - The stainless steel market has a supply pressure as the production has increased significantly in September, but the inventory is slowly decreasing, and the cost support is strong. It is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [39][41]. - The industrial silicon market has a "low - at - both - ends, high - in - the - middle" inventory structure. The production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment have a greater impact on the price. It is recommended to participate in long positions [43]. - The polysilicon market has a short - term negative impact on the futures due to the rumor of production resumption. The best strategy is to participate in long positions after the price correction [45][46][47]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a stalemate. The supply increment is limited in the short term, and the demand is strong. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term but will generally maintain an oscillating pattern [48][51][52]. - The tin market has a high - level oscillation. The supply is still tight, and the demand is sluggish. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [57][58]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold hit a new high above $3790 and then fell back, closing up 0.46% at $3764.02 per ounce. London silver first rose and then fell, closing down 0.07% at $44.02 per ounce. The Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts also had corresponding price changes [2]. - The US dollar index oscillated above 97, closing down 0.08% at 97.22. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.11%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was in a high - level consolidation, closing at 7.1119 [2]. Important资讯 - The Fed officials had different views on interest rates. Powell thought the policy rate was still slightly restrictive, and the market expected further interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October and December was high [2]. - The US September PMI data showed that the economy had some resilience. Geopolitical conflicts also had an impact on the market [2]. Logic Analysis - The market expected future US liquidity easing, but there were still stagflation risks and geopolitical conflicts. The precious metals maintained a strong trend, but there were profit - taking signs at high levels [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a low - buying strategy. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Use collar call options [3]. Copper Market Review - The night - session Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 79,970 yuan per ton, up 0.04%. The LME copper closed at $9,993.5 per ton, down 0.08% [5]. - The LME copper inventory decreased by 400 tons to 144,900 tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 1,511 tons to 318,200 tons [5]. Important资讯 - Diplomatic activities were carried out between China and the US. Powell warned about the Fed's dual mission and implied that interest rates were still restrictive [5]. - There were differences within the Fed on future monetary policies. Southern Copper expected stable copper production in Peru this year and had some project plans [5][7][8]. Logic Analysis - Macro factors indicated that interest rates were still restrictive, and the market followed the Fed's statements. Fundamentally, the supply of copper concentrates was tight, and domestic production declined. The consumption was weak in the peak season [9]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term copper prices will be in a high - level consolidation. - Arbitrage: Hold long - short cross - market arbitrage positions. - Options: Wait and see [11]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session alumina 2601 contract decreased by 18 yuan to 2,881 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [13]. Important资讯 - There were some spot transactions in different regions, and the prices decreased. The national alumina production capacity operation increased slightly, and the Australian alumina price decreased. The import and export volume of alumina in August had corresponding changes [13][14]. Logic Analysis - The domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina were falling, and the import window was slightly open. The bauxite in Guinea had an incremental expectation, and the fundamentals were weak [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The alumina price will run weakly. - Arbitrage: Conduct reverse calendar spread arbitrage. - Options: Wait and see [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 40 yuan to 20,270 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions were stable [18]. Important资讯 - A policy on standardizing investment promotion affected the recycled aluminum industry. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots changed, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange launched the standard warehouse receipt generation business for casting aluminum alloy [18]. Trading Logic - Some enterprises in Henan, Jiangxi, and Anhui were preparing raw materials for the National Day holiday. The downstream demand was picking up, and the alloy ingot spot price was stable and slightly strong [18]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The aluminum alloy futures price will oscillate weakly following the aluminum price. - Arbitrage: Long AD and short AL. - Options: Wait and see [20]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 20,670 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [22]. Important资讯 - The euro - zone September manufacturing PMI fell into the contraction range, and the US manufacturing PMI was still in the growth range. The electrolytic aluminum inventory in the main markets decreased. An electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia was expected to be put into production in stages. The import and export volume of aluminum ingots in August had corresponding changes [22][23]. Trading Logic - The Fed was cautious about further interest rate cuts. The European manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range. Domestically, attention should be paid to the downstream's inventory - building sentiment and holiday plans [25]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The aluminum price will be weak in the short term until the consumption side improves. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [25]. Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market decreased by 0.36% to $2,889.5 per ton. The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract decreased by 0.09% to 21,935 yuan per ton [27]. - The spot price in Shanghai was in a certain range, and the trading was not active [27]. Important资讯 - The domestic zinc inventory decreased in some regions and increased in others. Affected by Typhoon "Hagasa", the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises in Guangdong was expected to decline [27][28]. Logic Analysis - The domestic refined zinc supply in September may decrease slightly, but the monthly output was still at a relatively high level. The downstream enterprises bought at low prices, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downstream had a replenishment expectation before the National Day, but the amplitude was limited. The overseas inventory reduction may support the price, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [28][30]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term zinc price will oscillate in a range. Pay attention to the LME inventory change. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [30]. Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market decreased by 0.03% to $1,999 per ton. The Shanghai lead 2511 contract decreased by 0.2% to 17,090 yuan per ton [32]. - The SMM1 lead average price decreased, and the price difference between different regions and types of lead existed. The transaction of recycled refined lead was under pressure [32]. Important资讯 - The SMM lead ingot social inventory decreased. The import volume of lead concentrates in August increased, and the import and export volume of lead - acid batteries decreased [32][33][34]. Logic Analysis - The lead price strengthened, and the loss of domestic recycled lead smelting was repaired. Some enterprises planned to resume production. The downstream lead - storage enterprises may stock up before the holiday. The lead price was expected to oscillate at a high level [34]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term lead price will oscillate at a high level. Try short positions at high prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [34]. Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price increased to $15,340 per ton, and the inventory increased. The Shanghai nickel main contract increased to 121,740 yuan per ton [36]. - The spot premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [36]. Important资讯 - Indonesia punished some mining companies, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo was considering extending the cobalt export ban [36]. Logic Analysis - The nickel price was slightly boosted by Indonesia's policy, but the impact on the supply was limited. The net import of refined nickel decreased, and the LME inventory was expected to increase. The positive news from Indonesia and the Philippines supported the nickel ore price, but the upward momentum was insufficient. The nickel price will oscillate in a wide range [37]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [37]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main stainless steel SS2511 contract increased to 12,940 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [39]. Important资讯 - Affected by Typhoon "Hagasa", Foshan implemented "five - stop" measures [39]. Logic Analysis - The stainless steel production in September increased significantly, but the demand did not show seasonal peak - season characteristics. The supply pressure existed, but the inventory was slowly decreasing, and the cost support was strong. The price was expected to oscillate [41]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate in a wide range. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [41]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The Tuesday industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated narrowly, closing down 2.3% at 8,925 yuan per ton. The spot price was stable [43]. Important资讯 - The export volume of industrial silicon products in August increased year - on - year and month - on - month [43]. Comprehensive Analysis - The industrial silicon inventory structure was "low - at - both - ends, high - in - the - middle". The production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment had a greater impact on the price. It was recommended to participate in long positions [43]. Strategy - Unilateral: Participate in long positions. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options. - Arbitrage: None [43]. Polysilicon Market Review - The Tuesday polysilicon futures main contract decreased and then rebounded, closing at 50,260 yuan per ton, down 2.745. The spot price was stable [45][46]. Important资讯 - The August全社会用电量 data was released, showing an increase year - on - year [46]. Comprehensive Analysis - The rumor of polysilicon production resumption in October was a short - term negative factor. The spot price was rising, and the best strategy was to participate in long positions after the price correction [46][47]. Strategy - Unilateral: Participate in long positions after sufficient price correction [47]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2511 contract decreased to 73,660 yuan per ton, and the index position decreased. The GQEX warehouse receipt increased. The spot prices of electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate were stable [48]. Important资讯 - India had requirements for the procurement of components, battery cells, and silicon wafers in the ALMM project. Chile submitted the lease agreement for lithium production [49][51]. Logic Analysis - The lithium price was in a stalemate. The short - term supply increment was limited, and the demand was strong. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term but will generally maintain an oscillating pattern [51]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate in a wide range. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. - Options: Sell wide - straddle options [49][52]. Tin Market Review - The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 271,090 yuan per ton, up 0.31%. The LME tin inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory decreased significantly [54][57]. - The Shanghai metal network spot tin ingot average price decreased. The spot trading atmosphere improved, but the downstream demand was still limited [54]. Important资讯 - Diplomatic activities were carried out between China and the US. Powell warned about the Fed's dual mission, and the Fed officials had different views on interest rates [56]. - An Indonesian tin ore producer planned to increase production next year, and a US tin smelter started construction [57]. Logic Analysis - The Fed had differences on future monetary policies. The tin ore supply was still tight, but there were short - term improvement signs. The demand was sluggish, and the consumption electronics and home appliance industries only slightly recovered. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [57]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a high - level oscillation. - Options: Wait and see [58].

Core Viewpoint - Australia's inflation rate accelerated in August, reaching the upper limit of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target of 2%-3%, supporting the rationale for the RBA to maintain interest rates unchanged and boosting the Australian dollar [1] Economic Indicators - The tight labor market, as indicated by last week's employment report, may lead RBA decision-makers to keep rates steady in the upcoming meeting, maintaining a cautious outlook [1] - The Australian dollar appreciated by 0.2% against the US dollar, recovering losses [1] - The yield on Australia's three-year government bonds rose as traders reduced expectations for a rate cut [1] Market Expectations - Swap rates related to the RBA meeting indicate a pause in rate cuts during the meeting scheduled for September 29-30, with a 70% probability of a rate cut in November [1]

Group 1: Inflation Data - Australian consumer prices rose 3% in August year-on-year, up from 2.8% in July, exceeding median forecasts of 2.9% [2] - The trimmed mean measure of core inflation was 2.6% in August, down from 2.7% in July, while a measure excluding volatile items increased to 3.4% from 3.2% [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Investors are now betting that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will not change interest rates next week, with the likelihood of a rate cut in November dropping to 50% from nearly 70% [1] - Major banks including Barrenjoey, Deutsche Bank, and National Australia Bank have abandoned their calls for a rate cut in November due to the upside surprise in inflation data [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The RBA has indicated that the economy is in a good position, with inflation expected to return to the target band of 2% to 3% and the labor market nearing full employment [5] - The central bank forecasts headline inflation to rise to 3.1% by mid-next year, while core inflation is expected to remain around 2.6% [6] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Price growth in the services sector, particularly in restaurant meals and takeaway food, has accelerated, indicating potential inflationary pressures [7] - New dwelling prices increased by 0.7% year-on-year to August, suggesting a stall in the disinflationary trend in the housing sector [7]