Core Viewpoint - The current economic adjustment in China is characterized by a weak inflation cycle under a declining financial cycle, with productivity being a crucial dimension for analysis [1][8]. Financial Cycle - The financial cycle is defined as the long-term interaction between credit and housing prices, with a downward trend leading to credit contraction and insufficient domestic demand [9]. - During the financial cycle's expansion, productivity did not improve synchronously, indicating inefficient allocation of credit resources [12][19]. - The current financial cycle in China has seen a concentration of funds and labor in low-efficiency sectors, particularly real estate, leading to a decline in overall productivity growth [12][22]. Policy Implications - Historical experience suggests that during a declining financial cycle, both monetary and fiscal policies should be coordinated to stimulate the economy [2][33]. - The intensity of monetary and fiscal policies tends to increase as the negative impact of the cycle deepens, with a typical lag of 3 to 4 years before economic stabilization occurs [2][40]. - Current monetary policy efforts in China are relatively weaker compared to international averages, indicating room for further action [34][40]. Asset Implications - Accelerated policy efforts are expected to stabilize and potentially increase asset prices, with historical data showing that housing and stock prices tend to recover after initial declines [4][55]. - In the context of China's current economic environment, sectors such as finance, real estate, and technology are likely to perform better as policies are implemented [63]. - The ongoing global rebalancing of funds and a weak dollar environment may favor the revaluation of Chinese assets, particularly in light of domestic policy support [5][70]. Economic Development Trends - China's GDP growth from 2020 to 2025 is projected to significantly outperform international averages, attributed to factors such as manufacturing scale effects and pre-existing monetary and fiscal policy support [22][23]. - Price levels in China have shown similarities to international low-price differentiation scenarios, with a notable demand gap impacting inflation [23][24]. - The housing market in China has experienced a cumulative decline of 14% since the peak, which is more severe than the international average [24][26]. Conclusion - The analysis of the current economic cycle in China through the lenses of financial cycles, productivity, and price levels provides valuable insights into potential policy and asset performance [1][22].

Group 1 - The U.S. labor productivity declined for the first time in nearly three years in Q1, primarily due to a decrease in economic output, interrupting the previous trend of efficiency improvements that helped alleviate employment cost inflation [1][4] - Non-farm employee output per hour annualized fell by 0.8%, with the previous value revised to a growth of 1.7% [1] - The decline in labor productivity led to a surge in unit labor costs, which increased by 5.7% in Q1, marking the largest rise in a year [1][4] Group 2 - The drop in productivity was mainly attributed to a 0.3% decrease in corporate output, as indicated by recent GDP data suggesting a contraction due to trade factors, despite an increase in hours worked [4] - Short-term productivity growth may remain under pressure as companies delay investment plans while awaiting clearer U.S. trade and tax policies [4] - The Trump administration is attempting to stimulate domestic manufacturing and investment through tariffs, while post-pandemic productivity gains and an influx of immigrants are seen as key drivers for economic growth and inflation control [4] Group 3 - Federal Reserve officials are closely monitoring productivity data, as improvements driven by technological upgrades, including artificial intelligence, could help curb wage inflation [4] - Labor costs represent the largest expense for most companies, prompting them to seek new technologies and equipment upgrades to enhance efficiency and mitigate inflationary pressures from wage increases [4] - Despite high borrowing costs, ongoing inflation, and economic uncertainty leading some companies to invest selectively, many are still focused on improving efficiency [4] Group 4 - Manufacturing productivity surged by an annualized 4.5%, the largest increase in nearly four years, with factory output rising by 5.1%, likely reflecting increased production of commercial aircraft [4] - Another report indicated that initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 228,000, suggesting limited layoffs [4]

Group 1 - U.S. labor productivity has declined for the first time since 2022, with a 0.8% annualized decrease in Q1, surpassing economists' expectations of a 0.7% decline [1] - Unit labor costs surged by 5.7% in Q1, marking the largest increase in a year, exceeding the anticipated 5.1% rise [1] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring these productivity figures, as improvements in productivity are crucial for controlling wage inflation [1] Group 2 - The decline in productivity is primarily attributed to a 0.3% decrease in business output, which was also reflected in the Q1 GDP data showing an annualized initial value of -0.3% [2] - Labor costs have increased by 1.3% year-over-year, with hourly wages rising to 4.8%, a 2.7% increase compared to the previous year [3] - Despite overall negative data, the manufacturing sector showed strong performance, with productivity increasing by 4.5% in Q1, the highest in nearly four years [3]