Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The plastic market is in a state of oscillating downward. Although there are expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, the improvement in the plastic supply - demand pattern is limited. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress of downstream enterprises after the Spring Festival. Due to the recent new plastic production capacity coming on - stream, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch film has not yet started, so continue to shrink the L - PP price spread [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Analysis - On February 26, new maintenance devices such as the old full - density line 2 of Dushanzi Petrochemical were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 92%, currently at a moderately high level. As of the week of February 13, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 13.93 percentage points to 19.8% week - on - week. During the Spring Festival, most downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally. The petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival, and on Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 870,000 tons, 60,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year, at a neutral level in recent years. In terms of cost, the market is concerned about the US - Iran negotiation and worried about the Iranian situation, but the US crude oil inventory has significantly increased, and the crude oil price is basically stable. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into production in January 2026 [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6,660 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,816 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,668 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.96%. The position increased by 42,552 lots to 550,407 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The PE spot market mostly declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,620 - 6,970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,230 - 8,960 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,800 - 8,040 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On February 26, new maintenance devices such as the old full - density line 2 of Dushanzi Petrochemical were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 92%, currently at a moderately high level [1][4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of February 13, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 13.93 percentage points to 19.8% week - on - week. During the Spring Festival, most downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally [1][4]. - **Inventory**: The petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival, and on Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 870,000 tons, 60,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year, at a neutral level in recent years [1][4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell below $71/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $705/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $685/ton week - on - week [4].

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2026年2月26日 【行情分析】 截至2月20日当周，PP下游开工率环比回落11.78个百分点至30%，春节假期，下游多数停工放假， 整体PP下游开工率季节性下滑。2月26日，新增宁波金发一线、北海炼厂单线等检修装置，PP企业开 工率下跌至80%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例下降至25%左右。春节期间石化库存增 加48万吨至94万吨，周四石化早库下降0.5万吨至87万吨，较去年农历同期低了6万吨，与往年同期基 本相当，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本端，市场关注美伊谈判，对伊朗局势感到担忧， 但美国原油库存大幅累库，原油价格基本稳定。近期检修装置略有增加。目前市场报价大稳小动， 节后下游工厂尚未完全启动，PP供需格局改善有限，但化工反内卷仍有预期，关注节后下游复产进 度。由于塑料近日有新增产能投产，开工率较PP高，叠加地膜集中需求尚未开启，继续做缩L-PP价 差。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2605合约增仓震荡下行，最低价6666元/吨，最高价6782元/吨，最终收盘于6675元/吨， 在20日均线下方，跌幅0.89%。持仓量增加276 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年2月25日 【行情分析】 2月25日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在93%左右，目前开工率处于中性偏高水平。截 至2月13日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降13.93个百分点至19.8%，春节假期，下游多数停工放假，整 体PE下游开工率季节性下滑。春节期间石化库存增加48万吨至94万吨，周三石化早库下降6.5万吨至 87.5万吨，较去年农历同期低了6.5万吨，与往年同期基本相当，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水 平。成本端，市场对伊朗局势感到担忧，加上美国能源信息署数据显示美国原油库存减少901.4万桶， 且成品油库存全线下降，春节假期海外原油价格上涨。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东） FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑料开工率略有上涨。目前市场报价大 稳小动，塑料供需格局改善有限，但化工反内卷仍有预期，关注节后下游复产进度。由于塑料近日 有新增产能投产，开工率较PP高，叠加地膜集中需求尚未开启，继续做缩L-PP价差。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 塑料2605合约增仓震荡运行，最低价6766元/吨， ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 25 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 2 月 25 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。沪锡、铂涨超 7 ...

【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2605合约增仓震荡运行，最低价6709元/吨，最高价6769元/吨，最终收盘于6720元/吨， 在20日均线上方，涨幅0.22%。持仓量增加7385手至479778手。 【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年2月25日 【行情分析】 截至2月20日当周，PP下游开工率环比回落11.78个百分点至30%，春节假期，下游多数停工放假， 整体PP下游开工率季节性下滑。2月25日，检修装置变动不大，PP企业开工率维持在81%左右，处于中 性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例下降至27%左右。春节期间石化库存增加48万吨至94万吨，周三石化 早库下降6.5万吨至87.5万吨，较去年农历同期低了6.5万吨，与往年同期基本相当，目前石化库存处 于近年同期中性水平。成本端，市场对伊朗局势感到担忧，加上美国能源信息署数据显示美国原油 库存减少901.4万桶，且成品油库存全线下降，春节假期海外原油价格上涨。近期检修装置略有增加。 目前市场报价大稳小动，节后下游工厂尚未完全启动，PP供需格局改善有限，但化工反内卷仍有预 期，关注节后下游复产进度。由于塑料近日有新增产能投产，开工率较P ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年2月24日 期货方面： PP2605合约高开后减仓震荡运行，最低价6665元/吨，最高价6720元/吨，最终收盘于6693元 /吨，在20日均线上方，涨幅0.51%。持仓量减少1731手至486837手。 现货方面： PP各地区现货价格多数上涨。拉丝报6310-6850元/吨。 【行情分析】 截至2月20日当周，PP下游开工率环比回落11.78个百分点至30%，春节假期，下游多数停工放假， 整体PP下游开工率季节性下滑。2月24日，新增中景石化二期二线等检修装置，PP企业开工率下跌至 81%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例上升至31%左右。春节期间石化早库增加48万吨至94 万吨，较去年农历同期低了2万吨，与往年同期基本相当，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成 本端，市场对伊朗局势感到担忧，加上美国能源信息署数据显示美国原油库存减少901.4万桶，且成 品油库存全线下降，海外原油价格涨幅较大，原油价格上涨。近期检修装置略有增加。目前市场报 价大稳小动。PP供需格局改善有限，但化工反内卷仍有预期，关注节后下游复产进度。由于塑料近 日有新增产 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年2月24日 【行情分析】 2月24日，齐鲁石化LDPE等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至93%左右，目前开工率处于中 性偏高水平。截至2月13日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降13.93个百分点至19.8%，春节假期，下游多 数停工放假，整体PE下游开工率季节性下滑。春节期间石化早库增加48万吨至94万吨，较去年农历 同期低了2万吨，与往年同期基本相当，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本端，市场对伊朗 局势感到担忧，加上美国能源信息署数据显示美国原油库存减少901.4万桶，且成品油库存全线下降， 海外原油价格涨幅较大，原油价格上涨。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万 吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑料开工率略有上涨。目前市场报价大稳小动，塑 料供需格局改善有限，但化工反内卷仍有预期，关注节后下游复产进度。由于塑料近日有新增产能 投产，开工率较PP高，叠加地膜集中需求尚未开启，继续做缩L-PP价差。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 塑料2605合约减仓震荡上行，最低价6707元/吨，最高价6855元/ ...

格隆汇2月24日｜化工板块表现亮眼，云天化涨8%，盐湖股份、万华化学分别涨4%和2%，带动化工 ETF天弘（159133）标的指数涨3.28%，盘中获资金净申购1250万份，已连续33日获资金净申购，净流 入额达20亿元。 资金持续流入得益于化工ETF天弘（159133）跟踪标的指数囊括基础化工、石油石化等主流领域及磷氟 化工、新能源材料等热门赛道，大中小市值均衡搭配，既包含万华化学、盐湖股份、天赐材料等龙头公 司，又涵盖细分领域优质中小企业，周期属性与成长动能兼备，场外联接C类：015897。 ③"金三银四"是化纤行业的传统需求旺季，每年的3月至4月期间，下游纺织企业集中采购化纤原料，以 满足春夏季节服装、家纺等产品的生产需求。 中信证券指出，化工反内卷持续加码，多行业发起行业自律，化工品价格有望底部回暖；叠加化工品行 业自身高景气，主营业务有望保持高增长。 ①2月18日，美国宣布将磷和草甘膦列入战略资源。 ②随着美国和伊朗冲突加剧，国际原油价格持续上涨，WTI原油主力合约累计涨幅达5.8%左右。 消息面上： ...

中信证券指出，化工反内卷持续加码，多行业发起行业自律，化工品价格有望底部回暖；叠加化工品行 业自身高景气，主营业务有望保持高增长。 上个马年沪指涨近60%！新年新福利来了，炒股排面要拉满，新号启幸运>> ①2月18日，美国宣布将磷和草甘膦列入战略资源。 ②随着美国和伊朗冲突加剧，国际原油价格持续上涨，WTI原油主力合约累计涨幅达5.8%左右。 ③"金三银四"是化纤行业的传统需求旺季，每年的3月至4月期间，下游纺织企业集中采购化纤原料，以 满足春夏季节服装、家纺等产品的生产需求。 格隆汇2月24日｜化工板块表现亮眼，云天化涨8%，盐湖股份、万华化学分别涨4%和2%，带动化工 ETF天弘（159133）标的指数涨3.28%，盘中获资金净申购1250万份，已连续33日获资金净申购，净流 入额达20亿元。 资金持续流入得益于化工ETF天弘（159133）跟踪标的指数囊括基础化工、石油石化等主流领域及磷氟 化工、新能源材料等热门赛道，大中小市值均衡搭配，既包含万华化学、盐湖股份、天赐材料等龙头公 司，又涵盖细分领域优质中小企业，周期属性与成长动能兼备，场外联接C类：015897。 消息面上： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Plastic supply and demand pattern improves limitedly, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. The upstream petrochemical inventory is low, and the basis has been repaired. Due to the long Spring Festival holiday, the risk of unilateral positions is high, so it is recommended to hold no positions for the holiday. Since there is new plastic production capacity put into operation recently, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet, it is advisable to hold a light - position short L - PP spread [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 12, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased. The overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally. Petrochemical de - stocking in February was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in recent years. The cost of crude oil rebounded due to market concerns about military conflicts between the US and Iran. New plastic production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate increased slightly recently. The concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract opened higher, then decreased in position and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 6732 yuan/ton, the highest was 6834 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6734 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.72%. The position decreased by 2602 lots to 501315 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Some prices in the PE spot market declined, with the price change ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6600 - 7020 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8280 - 8960 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6760 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On February 12, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased. The overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally [4]. - **Inventory**: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 440,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year. Petrochemical de - stocking was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above $69 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $695 per ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $675 per ton week - on - week [4].