Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The rebound of the urea futures market is mainly due to short - term profit - taking by short - sellers. The spot market remains dull, and the previously expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not materialized. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may struggle to absorb high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to fluctuate at low levels. However, considering the current low valuation of urea, it is not advisable to continue short - selling. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On October 16, compared with October 15, UR01 decreased by 4 yuan/ton (0.25%), UR05 decreased by 6 yuan/ton (0.36%), and UR09 decreased by 2 yuan/ton (0.12%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton (0.65%), Shanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton ( - 0.68%), Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton (0.65%), while prices in Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The spread between Shandong spot and UR increased by 4 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton ( - 0.33%), while that in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. b) Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1599 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1610 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1577 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1604 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1597 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2601 was 315,491 lots [1]. c) Trading Strategy The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The rebound of the urea futures market is mainly due to short - term profit - taking by short sellers. The spot market remains dull. The previously expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not materialized. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may not be able to absorb the high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to fluctuate at a low level. However, the current urea valuation is already at a low level, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Price) - On October 15, UR01 was 1597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan or 0.19% from October 14; UR05 was 1671 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan or - 0.12%; UR09 was 1707 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan or - 0.29% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - On October 15, the prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 1550 yuan/ton, 1540 yuan/ton, 1590 yuan/ton, 1620 yuan/ton, and 1560 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Shanxi was 1460 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.68% from October 14 [1]. Basis and Spread - On October 15, the spread between Shandong spot and UR01 was - 121 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan from October 14; the spread between 01 - 05 was - 74 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [1]. Upstream Cost - On October 15, the anthracite coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Downstream Prices - On October 15, the prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5100 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1600 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1611 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1596 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1600 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1604 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 322,686 lots [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report [1] 2) Core View - The urea futures market saw a short - covering rally, likely due to short - term profit - taking by bears. The spot market remains dull, and the expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not materialized. Without further changes in exports and with weakening domestic agricultural demand, domestic demand may struggle to absorb high supply, leading to continued low - level price fluctuations. However, urea is currently undervalued, and short - selling is not recommended. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1610 yuan/ton on October 13, up 13 yuan (0.81%) from October 10 [1] - UR05: 1678 yuan/ton on October 13, up 12 yuan (0.72%) from October 10 [1] - UR09: 1710 yuan/ton on October 13, up 8 yuan (0.47%) from October 10 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1530 yuan/ton on October 13, down 20 yuan (-1.29%) from October 10 [1] - Shanxi: 1450 yuan/ton on October 13, down 10 yuan (-0.68%) from October 10 [1] - Henan: 1520 yuan/ton on October 13, down 20 yuan (-1.30%) from October 10 [1] - Hebei: 1570 yuan/ton on October 13, down 30 yuan (-1.88%) from October 10 [1] - Northeast: 1630 yuan/ton on October 13, unchanged from October 10 [1] - Jiangsu: 1530 yuan/ton on October 13, down 30 yuan (-1.92%) from October 10 [1] Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: -148 yuan/ton on October 13, down 32 yuan from October 10 [1] - 01 - 05 spread: -68 yuan/ton on October 13, up 1 yuan from October 10 [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively from October 10 to October 13 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively from October 10 to October 13 [1] - Melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively from October 10 to October 13 [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1590 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1617 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1583 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1610 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1605 yuan/ton. The持仓量 was 326154 lots [1]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - After the holiday, urea prices dropped significantly. The potential upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) did not materialize. Due to the uncertainty of export policies, the domestic market's response to India's new tender during the National Day was limited. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may struggle to absorb high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to fluctuate weakly. However, considering the current low valuation of urea, short - selling is not recommended. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: On October 10, UR01 in Shandong was 1597 yuan/ton (-0.75% compared to October 9), in Shanxi was 1540 yuan/ton (-0.65%), UR05 was 1666 yuan/ton (-0.66%), and UR09 was 1702 yuan/ton (+0.06%) [1]. - Domestic spot prices: In Henan, it was 1530 yuan/ton (-0.65%); in Hebei, 1600 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Northeast China, 1630 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Jiangsu, 1550 yuan/ton (-0.64%) [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 126 yuan/ton (+1 yuan compared to October 9), and the spread of 01 - 05 was - 69 yuan/ton (-1 yuan) [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1612 yuan/ton, the highest was 1614 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1593 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1597 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1601 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 338,864 lots [1].

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance and trends of various ETFs, highlighting significant movements in different sectors and the overall market sentiment as of September 30, 2025 [1][2][4]. Market Overview - The market temperature gauge indicates a 75% confidence level, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index showing historical P/E ratios at the 96.3%, 67.17%, and 52.45% percentiles respectively [1]. - The overall market performance shows a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.52%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.35%, and ChiNext Index remaining unchanged [1]. Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include real estate (+2.12%), non-ferrous metals (+3.22%), and defense industry (+2.59%) [2]. - Conversely, sectors experiencing declines include non-bank financials (-57.00 billion), telecommunications (-55.17 billion), and electric power equipment (-38.24 billion) [2]. ETF Performance - Notable ETFs include the Non-ferrous Metals ETF, which has increased by 50.00% over the past six months, and the Defense Industry ETF, which has risen by 2.59% [4]. - The Chemical Industry sector is highlighted for its recent strong performance, with the index showing a nearly 2% increase, marking five consecutive days of gains [6]. Investment Trends - The article emphasizes the ongoing development in the domestic AI industry, particularly the collaboration between AI models and chip technology, which is expected to accelerate breakthroughs in AI computing facilities [6]. - The chemical sector is noted for its potential recovery in profitability due to the ongoing optimization of supply and demand structures, driven by efforts to eliminate inefficient production capacity [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The proposition of demand overdraft due to pre - export has gradually materialized, and the off - peak season for polyester in the peak season is basically a foregone conclusion. The polyester segment currently faces little short - term pressure, with a marginal improvement in terminal demand. There is an expected seasonal uptick in October, but the sustainability and height of the demand are pessimistic. Starting from November, the production is expected to decline seasonally. With weak demand, polyester raw materials are entering an inventory accumulation phase, lacking upward drivers in the supply - demand balance [1]. - For MEG, the main theme in the fourth quarter is the contradiction between strong current reality and weak future expectations. Near - term supply - demand shows marginal improvement, with port inventories at historical lows and a short - term tight liquidity situation. However, the actual tightness is less severe than indicated by low visible inventories, and the impact on absolute prices is limited. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation has a greater impact on valuation. With the new device coming into operation, the supply load pressure increases, leading to inventory accumulation starting from November. Excess supply is difficult to digest, and MEG will remain in a short - position until its valuation is further compressed [1][17]. - For PX - PTA, prices have rebounded recently due to the resurgence of the "chemical anti - involution" sentiment and marginal improvement in demand. However, the peak season for polyester is not expected to be strong, mainly showing seasonal and phased strength. The polyester load's peak depends on the performance of bottle - chip production. In the fourth quarter, many PTA maintenance plans have been announced. If they are implemented, the structural contradiction of PX - TA will be alleviated before December, and PTA processing fees may be repaired. But the overall excess situation of PTA restricts the repair of processing fees [2][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 MEG Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, MEG prices dropped significantly due to cost collapse and a weakening supply - demand pattern. In January, prices fluctuated at a high level due to low inventories. In February, prices rebounded slightly and then fell. In March, prices were in a low - level consolidation [3]. - In the second quarter, macro and geopolitical factors dominated. In early April, prices plummeted due to trade disputes, then rebounded and fluctuated. In May, prices rose due to the expectation of pre - export, then weakened. In June, prices rose due to the Israel - Palestine conflict and then fell after the cease - fire [4]. - In the third quarter, the "anti - involution" sentiment influenced prices. In July, prices reached a high and then fell. In August, prices rose and then fell again. In September, prices were under pressure due to the expectation of inventory accumulation [5]. 3.1.2 PTA Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, PTA prices mainly followed the cost trend, fluctuating in the range of 4700 - 5350. In January, prices reached a high and then fell. In February, prices fluctuated downward. In March, prices were in a low - level consolidation [9]. - In the second quarter, macro and geopolitical factors dominated. In early April, prices dropped to a low due to trade disputes, then rebounded. In May, prices rose due to the expectation of pre - export, then weakened. In June, prices rose due to the Israel - Palestine conflict and then fell after the cease - fire [10]. - In the third quarter, PTA prices fluctuated widely in the range of 4500 - 5000. In July, prices were affected by cost and macro factors. In August, prices first fell and then rose. In September, prices were under pressure and then recovered slightly [10][11]. 3.2 Core Focus Points 3.2.1 MEG - The significance of MEG's historical low visible inventories is diminishing. Port inventories are expected to remain below 600,000 tons before the end of October, with tight short - term liquidity. Domestic production has reached a high level, and supply elasticity is limited. With the resurgence of the "anti - involution" sentiment and coal production inspections, there is limited downward momentum [18]. - The expectation of inventory accumulation continues to suppress MEG's valuation. The early commissioning of Yulong and the planned commissioning of Ningxia Changyi will lead to inventory accumulation, with an expected monthly inventory increase of over 150,000 tons starting from November. If the inventory accumulation expectation is realized, the current production profit may not be maintained, and the EG01 contract may end below 4100 [19]. 3.2.2 PTA - The near - term trading logic of PTA is that the peak season for polyester is not strong. The start - up of filament and staple fiber has reached a high level, and the polyester load depends on bottle - chip production. With the improvement of weaving orders and the reduction of polyester yarn inventory, demand will remain high in October and weaken seasonally in November. The "anti - involution" sentiment has stabilized the commodity mood, and there is limited downward momentum [29]. - The long - term trading expectation of PTA is that PX is in excess relative to polyester in the fourth quarter, and its valuation is expected to fluctuate with cost and macro sentiment. Many PTA maintenance plans have been announced. If implemented, the structural contradiction of PX - TA can be alleviated, and PTA processing fees may be repaired, but the long - term excess situation restricts the repair height. The 01 contract's processing fees are expected to fluctuate between 250 - 400 in the fourth quarter. The "anti - involution" sentiment will repeatedly affect the market, and attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee and the 15th Five - Year Plan [31]. 3.3 MEG Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.3.1 MEG Industry Pattern Analysis - MEG's domestic production capacity has grown rapidly in recent years, changing from supply shortage to over - capacity. Since 2024, the large - scale commissioning period has ended, and the industry is gradually moving towards valuation repair. Currently, ethylene - based production accounts for 62% of the total capacity, and coal - based production accounts for 38%. In 2025, the supply logic has changed, with increased production and reduced supply elasticity [37][38]. 3.3.2 MEG Supply Analysis - Domestic supply: From January to August 2025, the actual domestic production of MEG was 13.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. The average load from January to August was 69.2%, an increase of 4.8% compared to the same period in 2024. Coal - based production has achieved profitability, but with the expectation of inventory accumulation, the valuation is under pressure, and there is still room for price compression [41]. - Import supply: In 2025, the monthly import volume of MEG has increased significantly year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 5.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16%. The import source is becoming more concentrated, mainly from the Middle East and North America. If India's anti - dumping tax policy is implemented, it may change the global logistics pattern [51][53]. 3.3.3 MEG Balance Sheet Analysis - In the fourth quarter, MEG is entering an inventory accumulation phase. Production is expected to remain high, while demand is not expected to be strong. There will be a small inventory accumulation in October and a significant surplus starting from November, which will suppress the valuation. The 01 contract may end below 4100 [60]. 3.4 PTA Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.4.1 PX - PTA Industry Pattern Analysis - Domestic PX production capacity has expanded rapidly in recent years, and the commissioning has paused since 2024. PTA production capacity has continued to grow at a high speed. In 2025, new PTA capacity is expected to be put into operation, but there is a possibility of delay. The industrial pattern has changed, with PX supply being relatively tight and PTA supply being in excess [64][68]. 3.4.2 PTA Supply Analysis and Valuation Feedback - In 2025, PTA processing fees have been under pressure. In the first quarter, the average processing fee was 218 yuan/ton, lower than the same period in 2024. In the second quarter, processing fees were repaired due to maintenance and increased demand. In the third quarter, processing fees were under pressure again due to increased supply. In the fourth quarter, if maintenance plans are implemented, the structural contradiction can be alleviated, but the repair of processing fees is limited [70][71]. 3.4.3 PTA Export Demand Analysis - From January to August 2025, PTA exports totaled 2.53 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. The decline is mainly due to the new overseas PTA plant in Turkey. The export volume to Turkey has decreased significantly, and part of the export volume has shifted to other countries [74]. 3.4.4 PTA Balance Sheet Analysis - The peak season for polyester is not expected to be strong. In October, there may be a small supply - demand gap if maintenance plans are implemented. Starting from November, demand is expected to decline seasonally, and PTA prices are expected to be weak. Processing fees are expected to remain under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - policies [84]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Analysis 3.5.1 Start - up Performance - The peak season for polyester is not strong. Although there is a marginal improvement in downstream demand, high坯布 inventories suppress terminal purchasing. Filament and staple fiber start - up rates are already high, with limited room for further increase. Bottle - chip production load has been low, and attention should be paid to potential load - increasing plans. In the fourth quarter, demand is expected to improve in October but weaken seasonally starting from November, with average loads of 91.5%, 90%, and 89% from October to December [87]. 3.5.2 Macro - demand - In terms of domestic consumption, from January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.6%. Textile and clothing consumption grew at a low speed, with clothing retail sales increasing by 2.2% and textile and clothing products increasing by 2.9% year - on - year [103]. - In terms of exports, in the first three quarters of 2025, textile and clothing exports showed low - speed growth. Affected by trade disputes and macro - policies, export growth has been under pressure. In the first quarter, exports increased significantly, but after April, exports weakened due to the uncertainty of macro - expectations [106].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The PTA industry is expected to see a cyclical bottoming out, with leading companies discussing coordinated production cuts to improve supply-demand dynamics [27][28] - The domestic PTA capacity has rapidly expanded from 46.69 million tons in 2019 to 84.28 million tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 12.5% [27] - The report highlights the potential for a new cyclical upturn in the PTA market, driven by the exit of older, high-cost production capacities and a stabilization in domestic and international textile demand [28][29] Market Performance - The basic chemical sector underperformed the market, with the industry index declining by 1% during the week of September 19-26, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.2% [15][20] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 22.3%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 8 percentage points [15][21] Key News and Company Announcements - Recent discussions among leading PTA companies regarding coordinated production cuts are expected to enhance industry self-discipline and avoid disorderly competition [26][27] - Xinxiang Chemical Fiber announced a planned shutdown of 31,200 tons of viscose filament capacity for maintenance starting October 1, 2025, which is anticipated to tighten supply in the viscose filament market [26][29] Price and Margin Analysis - The report notes that the price difference for PTA has narrowed to within 200 RMB/ton, indicating significant pressure on profitability for many companies [27] - The viscose filament industry is expected to see price increases driven by seasonal demand and coordinated actions among leading companies [29] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., and Xinfonming, which are well-positioned to benefit from the expected improvements in the PTA market [28][29] - For viscose filament, attention is drawn to Xinxiang Chemical Fiber and Jilin Chemical Fiber, which may experience profit elasticity due to potential price increases [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX - TA prices rebounded from low levels driven by the resurgence of the "chemical anti - involution" sentiment and marginal improvement in demand. However, the peak of the polyester peak season is hard to anticipate, mainly showing seasonal and phased strength. The operating rates of filament and staple fiber in polyester have reached high levels, and the room for further increase is limited. The peak of polyester load still depends on the performance of bottle - chip operating rate [1]. - In the short term, the demand for polyester will remain at a high level. The inventory of polyester yarn has been significantly reduced due to the improvement of weaving orders and the superposition of terminal speculative sentiment and pre - holiday rigid - demand stocking. Recently, crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost and sentiment have stabilized in the short term, with insufficient power for further decline [2]. - In the long term, PX is in a state of supply surplus relative to polyester in the fourth quarter, and its fundamentals are weakening marginally. However, PXN has been compressed to a low level, and its valuation is expected to fluctuate following the cost side and macro - sentiment. The macro - sentiment will repeatedly dominate the commodity market trend, and attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session in October and the 15th Five - Year Plan Outline, which may provide new drivers for PTA prices [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - PX - TA prices rebounded from low levels, but the polyester peak season is lackluster. The operating rates of filament and staple fiber are high, and the polyester load depends on bottle - chip production. The subsequent terminal demand and sentiment are expected to improve marginally in October, and the impact of macro - expectations may be greater than the suppression of fundamental pessimistic expectations [1]. - PX is expected to accumulate inventory in October, and PTA has many maintenance plans in the fourth quarter. If implemented, PX will generally maintain a state of flat to slightly accumulated inventory, and the supply - demand tight pattern has eased compared with previous expectations. PTA processing fees have expanded recently, but the over - supply pattern suppresses the repair strength, and additional maintenance is needed to relieve the structural contradiction [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Oscillating upward. The TA2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 4550 - 4800. - Strategy recommendation: Buy TA01 contracts on dips, with the recommended entry range of (4550, 4600). Expand the TA01 processing fees when they are below 280 [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Polyester price range forecast: The price ranges of ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, and bottle - chip are 4150 - 4450, 6400 - 7100, 4400 - 5000, and 5600 - 6200 respectively [9]. - PTA hedging strategy: Enterprises can short PTA futures to lock in profits according to their inventory, and buy PTA futures to lock in procurement costs [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", but the impact on the supply side is expected to be limited. Ineos reduced the load of one line and stopped another due to the typhoon [14]. - Negative information: A 1.1 - million - ton polyester bottle - chip plant in South China stopped production temporarily due to seawater backflow caused by the typhoon [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Polyester load adjustment and downstream replenishment rhythm before the National Day. The subsequent recovery of Ineos' two lines with a total capacity of 2.35 million tons [23]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The PTA disk is oscillating in the range of 4500 - 4700, with overall shrinking trading volume. The futures price has oscillated downward recently, and the basis shows a slight discount [18]. - Capital trend: The net short positions of key seats in PTA and p - xylene first increased and then decreased, indicating that the main funds are cautiously bearish on the PX - TA market outlook. The PX - TA market currently lacks upward drivers and should be treated with a cost - following oscillation mindset [20]. - Monthly spread structure: PTA shows a slight C - structure, indicating that the monthly spread contradiction is not obvious. This week, the PTA monthly spread oscillated, and there was no significant change in the monthly spread [22]. - Basis structure: This week, some PTA plants reduced or stopped production due to the typhoon, and the downstream polyester sales improved significantly. The PTA spot basis strengthened slightly, but the overall market expectation is poor, and the subsequent spot contradiction is not obvious. The upward space of the basis is expected to be limited [32]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Cost Tracking The report shows the seasonal trends of Brent crude oil, Japanese CFR naphtha, and South Korean FOB xylene prices [46]. 3.4.2 Upstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - International gasoline and diesel crack spreads: The report shows the seasonal trends of international gasoline and diesel crack spreads in Singapore, the United States, and Rotterdam [50]. - Domestic gasoline and diesel crack spreads: The report shows the seasonal trends of domestic gasoline and diesel crack spreads in Shandong [52]. - Naphtha reforming: The report shows the seasonal trends of naphtha reforming and cracking profits in Asia [55]. - Aromatic hydrocarbon blending for oil: The report shows the seasonal trends of toluene and xylene blending for oil and disproportionation spreads in Asia [57]. - PX - TA link: The report shows the seasonal trends of Asian PXN, BZN, and PTA domestic processing fees [64]. 3.4.3 Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain The report shows the seasonal trends of polyester comprehensive profit, POY, FDY, DTY, staple fiber, and bottle - chip processing profits, as well as the bottle - chip internal - external price difference [66]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including PX and PTA production, import, supply, consumption, inventory, and other data [73]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - PX supply: Tianjin Petrochemical restarted this week, and the load increased to 86.7% (+0.4%). PX supply is expected to increase in October. In terms of supply - demand balance, PX is expected to accumulate about 100,000 tons of inventory in October. If the PTA maintenance plans in the fourth quarter are implemented, PX will generally maintain a state of flat to slightly accumulated inventory [74]. - PTA supply: Fuhai Chuang restarted 50% of its 4.5 - million - ton capacity recently. Ineos reduced the load of one line and stopped another due to the typhoon, and the TA load remained stable at 76.8%. The downstream demand has improved marginally, and the social inventory has increased slightly to 2.14 million tons. The PTA cash - flow processing fee has rebounded from a low level, but further expansion requires additional maintenance or price support [75]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Polyester demand: This week, the polyester load decreased to 90.3% (-1.1%) due to the shutdown of a bottle - chip plant in Zhuhai. The seasonal increase in polyester demand is limited, but weaving orders have improved recently, and the terminal sentiment has improved temporarily. The inventory of filament and staple fiber has been significantly reduced, and the polyester load is expected to remain high. The processing fees of the polyester segment are under pressure this week, but except for FDY, the pressure is not significant [84]. - Long - filament demand: The inventory of long - filament has been significantly reduced, and the subsequent load maintenance pressure is not large. The processing fees are under pressure but can be adjusted dynamically [84]. - Staple - fiber demand: The inventory of staple - fiber has decreased, and the processing fees are under pressure but can be adjusted [84]. - Bottle - chip demand: The processing fees of bottle - chip have improved recently, and the inventory is healthy. Attention should be paid to whether there will be plans to increase the load [84].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the ongoing efforts in the chemical industry to combat irrational competition and regulate industry order, particularly focusing on glyphosate market issues such as low prices and poor quality [1] - The China Pesticide Industry Association will hold a meeting on October 12 in Shanghai to discuss the latest progress on international standards for glyphosate and outline future work [1] - As of September 26, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) increased by 0.68%, with notable stock performances including Xin Feng Ming (603225) up 10.02% and Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233) up 7.30% [1] Group 2 - The chemical ETF (159870) closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which consists of seven sub-indices reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in related sub-industries [2] - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a weak overall performance, influenced by a new capacity cycle and weak demand, although some sub-industries, like lubricants, have exceeded expectations [1] - Investment opportunities are suggested in areas such as glyphosate, fertilizers, import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend assets [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the basic chemical sector has shown a decline of 1.33% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.89 percentage points [6][19] - Key companies to focus on include Wanhua Chemical, Yangnong Chemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, with a specific interest in agricultural chemicals and technology sectors such as liquid cooling and PCB supply chains [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the basic chemical sector is at 4048.88, with a weekly high of 4123.45 and a low of 2721.92 [2] Price Movements - Major price increases were observed in products such as liquid chlorine (up 22.93%), dichloromethane (up 19.44%), and bismuth ingots (up 12.39%) [9][25] - Conversely, prices for vitamin E decreased by 10.00%, and other products like β-methyl naphthalene and trichloro-sucrose also saw significant declines [10][27] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included significant gains for companies like Kaimete Gas (up 28.62%) and Guangdong Hongda (up 22.93%), while companies like Runyang Technology and Wankai New Materials experienced declines of 11.48% and 10.42%, respectively [7][22] Key Company Ratings - Wanhua Chemical is rated "Buy" with a closing price of 65.3 and a market cap of 204.45 billion [12] - Yangnong Chemical is also rated "Buy" with a closing price of 71.2 and a market cap of 28.86 billion [12] - Other companies such as Meihua Biological and Bailong Chuangyuan remain unrated [12]