1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for each metal, which can be summarized as follows based on the rating standard (expected price movement within 2 - 12 weeks): - **Copper**: Expected to be in a volatile pattern [8][9] - **Alumina**: Expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term [9] - **Aluminum**: Expected to be range - bound in the short term and bearish in the medium - long term [11][13] - **Aluminum Alloy**: ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level oscillation in the short term, with potential for an upward movement later [13][15] - **Zinc**: Expected to be volatile and bearish [15][16] - **Lead**: Expected to be in a volatile state [17][20] - **Nickel**: Expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term, and a short - position is recommended in the medium - long term [21][25] - **Stainless Steel**: Expected to be range - bound in the short term [26] - **Tin**: Expected to be in a volatile pattern, with potential for increased volatility in August [27][29] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Investors are concerned about weak consumption, causing the non - ferrous metals market to decline under pressure. The 7 - month Politburo meeting was in line with expectations, and potential incremental stimulus policies are yet to be seen. The market's focus has shifted back to weakening consumption. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the Sino - US tariff has been further extended. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and the US unexpectedly did not impose additional taxes on refined copper imports, leading to a stronger US dollar index, which exerts pressure on non - ferrous metals. In terms of supply and demand, the supply and demand of base metals are gradually loosening seasonally, and domestic inventories are rising seasonally. In the short - to - medium term, the rapid rise of the US dollar and the expectation of weakening demand will suppress prices, and there is a risk of further decline in the center of gravity of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to short zinc ingots at high prices and cautiously consider low - buying and short - term long opportunities for aluminum and tin. In the long term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and short - selling opportunities at high prices for some varieties with supply - demand surplus or expected surplus can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, causing a significant decline in COMEX copper prices. - **Information Analysis**: The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products starting from August 1. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged. China's electrolytic copper production in June decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The spot price of electrolytic copper increased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly [8]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, COMEX copper prices dropped significantly, and the C - L spread returned to the historical average. In terms of supply and demand, the copper ore processing fee continued to decline, and the raw material supply was still tight. The demand for copper rods decreased, and the copper inventory increased, weakening the upward momentum of copper prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs [9]. - **Outlook**: The supply of copper is still restricted, and the inventory is at a low level. However, the demand is marginally weakening, and the US tariff on copper is unfavorable to Shanghai copper prices. Copper is expected to show a volatile pattern [9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has declined, and alumina prices are oscillating and falling. - **Information Analysis**: The spot prices of alumina in different regions showed different trends on July 31. There were some spot basis - point transactions, and an overseas transaction of 30,000 tons of alumina was completed. The alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment and the low warehouse receipts problem dominate the alumina market. Fundamentally, the supply is increasing, and the inventory is rising, but the warehouse receipts are at a very low level. The market price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation before the significant increase in warehouse receipts [11]. - **Outlook**: Alumina is expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" sentiment and warehouse receipts [11]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The social inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices are oscillating weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, the inventory of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased significantly. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum decreased. The US and the EU are still negotiating trade agreements, and the Sino - US tariffs have been extended again [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the Sino - US tariffs have been extended again, and the Politburo meeting statement is in line with expectations. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in a weakening trend. The social inventory continues to accumulate, and the spot is at a discount. The off - season inventory accumulation trend may continue [13]. - **Outlook**: The short - term consumption and inventory accumulation rhythm need to be observed, and the price is expected to be range - bound. In the long term, there are concerns about consumption, and a short - selling strategy at high prices is recommended based on the premium/discount and inventory inflection point [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: There is still cost support, and the market is oscillating. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged, and the price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased. The import volume of scrap aluminum in June decreased year - on - year. The Sino - US tariffs have been extended, and the Politburo meeting was in line with expectations [13][15]. - **Main Logic**: The cost of ADC12 is supported by the firm price of scrap aluminum. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The ADC12 - A00 spread is at a low level, and there is an expectation of an upward movement in the future [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and the market follows electrolytic aluminum. There is room for an upward movement later, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities can be considered [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has eased, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions were different, and the inventory increased. A large - scale lead - zinc smelting project was put into production [15][16]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the "anti - involution" speculation sentiment has cooled down. The supply of zinc ore has become looser, and the smelting profit is good. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. The fundamentals are in a surplus state [16]. - **Outlook**: In August, the production of zinc ingots will remain high, and the demand is in the off - season. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and bearish [16]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: There is still cost support, and the decline space of lead prices is limited. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the price of scrap batteries remained unchanged, the price of lead decreased slightly, the inventory increased slightly, and the supply increased. The downstream procurement enthusiasm improved slightly [17]. - **Main Logic**: In the spot market, the premium is stable, and the spread between primary and recycled lead has decreased slightly. The supply of recycled lead is increasing, and the demand is in the transition period from the off - season to the peak season, with the battery factory's operating rate higher than the same period in previous years [20]. - **Outlook**: The macro - situation is fluctuating. The demand is gradually recovering, and the supply may continue to increase slightly. The cost of recycled lead is strongly supported, and lead prices are expected to be in a volatile state [20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The anti - speculation logic has emerged, and nickel prices are oscillating weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic inventory decreased slightly. Many companies in the nickel industry have investment and development plans, and the Indonesian nickel ore association proposed to revise the HPM formula [21][22][23]. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. The raw material supply may become looser after the rainy season, and the intermediate product output has recovered. The inventory has accumulated significantly, and the upward pressure is significant [25]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices are expected to be volatile and bearish, and a short - position is recommended in the medium - long term [25]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The price of nickel iron is strong, and the stainless - steel market is oscillating. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The spot premium in Foshan was positive, and the price of high - nickel pig iron increased [26]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel iron and chromium iron are stable. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. The inventory has decreased, and the structural surplus pressure has been relieved [26]. - **Outlook**: The cost has increased recently. Attention should be paid to the possibility of production cuts by steel mills. The demand is limited by the off - season, and the price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [26]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply is still tight, and tin prices are oscillating. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the position decreased. The spot price of tin decreased [27]. - **Main Logic**: After the mining license is issued, the tin ore production is expected to increase gradually, but the domestic tin ore shortage situation will not change for the time being. The supply of raw materials for smelters is tight, and the operating rate and output are under downward pressure. The terminal demand has weakened marginally [27]. - **Outlook**: The tin price is supported by the tight supply of tin ore. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern, and the volatility may increase in August [29].

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in copper prices have been influenced by a weakening US dollar and inventory depletion in non-US regions, alongside domestic sentiment regarding "anti-involution" [2] - The US has announced trade agreements with Japan and the Philippines, and negotiations with the EU have eased, reducing uncertainty around tariffs [2] - The "anti-involution" sentiment has led to optimism in the industrial sector, but the actual impact on copper prices has been limited due to low domestic copper inventory and concerns over US import tariffs [3][4] Group 2 - Domestic smelting enterprises are facing challenges due to low processing fees, but strong performance in by-products like sulfuric acid and gold has provided some profit support [6] - The tightening supply of copper concentrate is expected to persist, with major mining companies reporting mixed production outcomes [4][6] - The upcoming increase in US import tariffs on copper, potentially rising from 25% to 50%, is expected to alter global copper trade dynamics, leading to increased inventories in non-US regions [8][10] Group 3 - The copper market is currently experiencing a demand lull, which is limiting upward price momentum despite low social inventory levels [10] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly upgraded its global economic growth forecasts, which may support copper demand in the near term [10] - The market is closely monitoring the August 1 deadline for US tariffs, which could lead to increased volatility in copper prices if implemented as scheduled [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The driving force of the 91 spread may come from the SR2601 contract. The domestic situation is relatively strong, but the spot price is higher than the cost of out-of-quota imports, with no valuation advantage. The import volume in Q3 2025 is expected to increase significantly quarter-on-quarter, and the spot price will remain stable. Currently, the basis of the SR2509 contract is at a low level compared to previous years, with limited potential for imagination. The SR2601 contract is priced based on expectations, anchored to domestic production costs and out-of-quota import costs, and is also affected by the anti-involution sentiment. From late June onwards, driven by the anti-involution sentiment, the prices of industrial products such as polysilicon and coking coal have risen significantly, and the Zhengzhou sugar price has followed suit. In addition, the market expects that the sugar yield in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season is likely to decline, and the production cost will increase, supporting the price of the SR2601 contract. From August to September, the spot price is expected to remain stable, the basis of the SR2509 contract has limited potential for imagination, and the driving force of the 91 spread depends on the SR2601 contract [1][24] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Zhengzhou Sugar 91 Spread First Strengthened and Then Weakened - Since June 2025, the spread between the SR2509 contract and the SR2601 contract (hereinafter referred to as the 91 spread) has first strengthened and then weakened, generally fluctuating within the range of 100 - 200 yuan/ton, with a relatively small fluctuation range [4] - From June to July, the 91 spread strengthened, mainly because the price of the SR2509 contract was stronger. After the expiration of the New York raw sugar 2507 contract, the New York raw sugar price bottomed out and rebounded, and the suppression of the weak expectation on the SR2509 contract weakened. As the SR2507 contract expired, the SR2509 contract became the near-term contract, and as the delivery month approached, the pricing gradually shifted from expectation-based pricing to reality-based pricing. Against the background of a high basis, the price of the SR2509 contract was relatively stronger than that of the SR2601 contract [4] - Since July, the 91 spread has weakened, and the price of the SR2601 contract has been relatively stronger. Starting from July, the anti-involution sentiment in the domestic market has swept through the commodity market, and the prices of agricultural products have also been affected by this sentiment. Most of the funds trading on the macro level choose the far-term contracts. Fundamentally, the delivery of the SR2509 contract is still affected by the beet sugar warehouse receipts. On the one hand, the basis of the SR2509 contract has been repaired to a low level in recent years; on the other hand, the basis before the expiration of the SR2507 contract was still relatively high, so the room for the basis of the SR2509 contract to continue to weaken is limited [4] 2. The Basis of the SR2509 Contract is at a Low Level Compared to Previous Years, with Limited Potential for Imagination 2.1 Pricing Benchmark of the SR2509 Contract and the SR2601 Contract - The price of the SR2509 contract first declined and then increased. Since May 2025, the spot price in Nanning has fluctuated downward, with a fluctuation range of 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton. The SR2509 contract first declined and then increased, with a fluctuation range of 5600 - 5930 yuan/ton. The fluctuation range of the spot price is smaller than that of the futures price, and the basis fluctuates within the range of 150 - 400 yuan/ton, showing an overall inverted "V" shape. Since mid-June 2025, the basis of the SR2509 contract has weakened significantly. Currently, the basis of the SR2509 contract is at a low level compared to previous years, and its absolute level is lower than that before the expiration of the SR2507 contract, with limited potential for imagination [8] - The basis before the expiration of the SR2507 contract was relatively high. Since May 2025, the price of the SR2507 contract has fluctuated downward, and the basis has fluctuated within the range of 200 - 350 yuan/ton. The average basis in June was 282 yuan/ton, and the average basis in July was 279 yuan/ton. The basis before expiration was generally at a relatively high level. It is believed that the high basis before the expiration of the SR2507 contract is mainly related to the high proportion of beet sugar warehouse receipts [10] - The warehouse receipts mainly consist of beet sugar and Yunnan sugar. On July 29, 2025, the number of registered warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou sugar was 19,746. Among them, there were about 197 warehouse receipts for cane sugar from the Guangxi production area, about 2,324 warehouse receipts for cane sugar from the Yunnan production area, 1,824 warehouse receipts for credit from Yunnan factories, 5,000 warehouse receipts for credit from processing sugar factories in the sales area, about 8,706 warehouse receipts for beet sugar in the sales area, and 1,695 warehouse receipts for credit from beet sugar factories in the sales area. The warehouse receipts likely to be delivered are probably the beet sugar in the sales area and the cane sugar from the Yunnan production area, with a quantity of around 14,500 (including the possible warehouse receipts for credit from factories) [12] - The SR2601 contract is priced based on expectations, and its price increase benefits from the anti-involution sentiment. The pricing of the SR2601 contract is anchored to domestic production costs and out-of-quota import costs, and is also affected by the anti-involution sentiment. Since late June, driven by the anti-involution sentiment, the prices of industrial products such as polysilicon and coking coal have risen significantly, and the Zhengzhou sugar price has followed suit. Fundamentally, after the expiration of the New York raw sugar July contract, the news of Pakistan's import of 500,000 tons of sugar was positive. The markets in Brazil and India lacked obvious marginal information to drive prices, and the prices generally stabilized and then fluctuated within a range, with the out-of-quota import cost remaining stable [15] 2.2 International and Domestic Market Fundamentals - In the 24/25 sugar season, the global sugar supply was in a shortage of 5.47 million tons. In May 2025, the ISO released a report on the global sugar market for the 24/25 year, with a production of 174.80 million tons and a consumption of 180.26 million tons, resulting in a global supply shortage of 5.47 million tons, compared with a previous forecast of a shortage of 4.88 million tons (forecast in February 2025). In terms of the quantity of the supply shortage, the shortage is at a relatively high level in history, indicating that the overall market supply situation is relatively tight. In the 24/25 sugar season, Conab estimated that the sugar production in Brazil would be 44.12 million tons (-1.56 million tons), and Nfcsf estimated that the sugar production in India would be 26.11 million tons (-5.79 million tons) [18] - In the 25/26 sugar season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. In the 25/26 sugar season, the USDA estimated that the global sugar production would be 189.32 million tons, with a surplus of 11.4 million tons. Datagro estimated a global surplus of 1.53 million tons, GreenPool estimated a surplus of 1.15 million tons, Louis Dreyfus estimated a surplus of 0.4 million tons, and Alvean estimated a surplus of 0.4 million tons [20] - The core of the domestic sugar market trading is still the total import volume and structure. According to CAOC data, in the 24/25 sugar season, China's sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), consumption was 15.8 million tons, and imports were 5 million tons. In the 25/26 sugar season, China's sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons (+0.04 million tons), consumption is expected to be 15.9 million tons (+0.1 million tons), and imports are expected to be 5 million tons. In Q2 2025, the Guangxi production area was threatened by drought, but the total production data from CAOC did not change significantly. In Q1 2025, the policy tightened the import of syrup and premixed powder, and in May 2025, the supervision of 4 measures of the special account book management policy for commodities was further refined. Even if the in-quota import volume remains the same, with the decrease in the import volume of syrup and premixed powder, the market needs out-of-quota imports to fill the supply gap, and the pricing anchor point switches to the out-of-quota import cost. The total import volume and structure are the core of the market trading [20] 3. The Driving Force of the 91 Spread May Come from the SR2601 Contract - In the international market, the situation is one of strong reality and weak expectation. In terms of driving factors, in the 24/25 sugar season, the short-term supply in the global market is relatively large, and the reality is still strong; in the 25/26 sugar season, the global sugar market is expected to increase production and accumulate inventory, with a weak expectation [22] - In terms of valuation, although the price of New York raw sugar has significantly declined from its high level, its valuation is still relatively high compared to other major agricultural products [23] - In the domestic market, the pricing anchor point is the out-of-quota import cost. Whether in the 24/25 sugar season or the 25/26 sugar season, even if the in-quota import volume remains the same, with the decrease in the import volume of syrup and premixed powder, the market needs out-of-quota imports to fill the supply gap, and the pricing anchor point switches to the out-of-quota import cost. The total import volume and structure are the core of the market trading [23] - The driving force of the 91 spread depends on the SR2601 contract. The domestic situation is relatively strong, but the spot price is higher than the cost of out-of-quota imports, with no valuation advantage. The import volume in Q3 2025 is expected to increase significantly quarter-on-quarter, and the spot price will remain stable. Currently, the basis of the SR2509 contract is at a low level compared to previous years, with limited potential for imagination. The SR2601 contract is priced based on expectations, anchored to domestic production costs and out-of-quota import costs, and is also affected by the anti-involution sentiment. From late June onwards, driven by the anti-involution sentiment, the prices of industrial products such as polysilicon and coking coal have risen significantly, and the Zhengzhou sugar price has followed suit. In addition, the market expects that the sugar yield in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season is likely to decline, and the production cost will increase, supporting the price of the SR2601 contract. From August to September, the spot price is expected to remain stable, the basis of the SR2509 contract has limited potential for imagination, and the driving force of the 91 spread depends on the SR2601 contract [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have limited improvement in the weak reality. The downstream and end - users have limited ability to accept high prices, but there are frequent disturbances on the supply side, and the influence of funds and sentiment remains significant. It is expected that lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. The recommended strategy is to hold put options, with an expected operating range of 64,000 - 81,000 [4][84] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated upward, with a weekly increase of 15.82%. The trading volume reached 6.27 million lots (+1.98 million), and the open interest reached 491,100 lots (+113,800). The basis was at a discount of 7,620 yuan/ton [5][8] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In June, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,450 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 6.6%; lithium mica production was 16,800 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%. Lithium concentrate imports decreased to 427,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%. In April, the amount of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 58,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.3% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [12][16][21] 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In June, the recycling of waste lithium batteries was 18,366 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.8% [26] 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate production was 18,630 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. In June, lithium carbonate imports decreased to 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. In June, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 10,226 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.2% [31][33] 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In June, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 35%, and the production was 24,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.8%. Exports were 6,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.1% [39] 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, lithium iron phosphate production was 77,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. In June, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 56%, and the production was 229,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 56% [42] 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, ternary materials production was 15,502 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. In June, imports and exports increased [47] 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In June, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 36%, and the production was 68,360 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. Exports decreased in June [50] 3.3.4 Manganese Acid Lithium and Cobalt Acid Lithium - In June, the operating rate of manganese acid lithium was 33%, and the production was 11,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 19%. The operating rate of cobalt acid lithium was 57%, and the production was 9,730 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year increase of 20.4% [51] 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In June, electrolyte production was 159,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 45.6%. Exports of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased in June [54] 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In June, power battery production was 129.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 52.9%. The installed capacity was 58.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year increase of 36.0% [60] 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In June, new energy vehicle production was 1.268 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. Sales were 1.329 million units, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 26.7% [63] 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In June, energy storage battery production was 41.65 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 13.9% and a year - on - year increase of 42.7%. In May, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 5.15 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year increase of 18.7%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.66 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 7.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.3% [68] 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In June, China's smartphone production was 108.27 million units, a month - on - month increase of 19.0% and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The production of micro - electronic computers was 31.59 million units, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [71] 3.5 Cost - Lithium ore prices rebounded. The price of 6% lithium spodumene concentrate increased by $75/ton, and the price of lithium mica increased by 460 yuan/ton [74] 3.6 Inventory - Total inventory decreased by 550 tons. Structurally, smelters' inventory decreased by 2,654 tons, downstream inventory increased by 1,544 tons, and other inventory increased by 1,660 tons. Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory decreased by 168 tons, and ternary materials inventory increased by 229 tons [80][81] 3.7 Market Outlook - The recommended strategy is to hold put options, with an expected operating range of 64,000 - 81,000. On the resource side, there are frequent disturbances in domestic lithium mica supply, lithium spodumene production increases, and lithium ore imports decrease. On the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production decreased slightly but remained at a high level, imported lithium salt volume decreased, Chile's lithium salt exports were low, and the recycling end continued to decline. On the demand side, the growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down. The production schedules of cathode and cell factories were stable. Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory decreased and ternary materials inventory increased; energy storage battery production scheduling increased, and the winning bid scale of energy storage increased. On the cost side, the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica rebounded significantly. In terms of inventory, overall inventory decreased, smelters' inventory decreased, and downstream and other inventory increased. Overall, the weak reality of lithium carbonate fundamentals has limited improvement, the downstream and end - users have limited ability to accept high prices, but there are frequent supply - side disturbances, and the influence of funds and sentiment remains significant, so lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely [84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term squeeze risk and anti - involution sentiment have jointly pushed up the aluminum oxide market. In the short term, aluminum oxide is expected to remain strong, but attention should be paid to the rate and scale of warehouse receipt recovery and new supply disruptions in the future [4][5][8] 3. Summary According to the Directory Event Review - Short - term squeeze risk and anti - involution sentiment pushed up the aluminum oxide market. The 07 contract delivery led to a significant outflow of warehouse receipts, leaving only over 6kt of visible warehouse receipts on the exchange, raising squeeze concerns. The July 18th press conference of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned two statements affecting aluminum oxide, boosting market sentiment. Whether the new growth - stabilization plan for the non - ferrous metals industry will adjust the supply side of the alumina industry remains to be observed [4][5] Market Outlook - Bauxite inventory accumulates weekly with weak prices. Smelters have sufficient low - cost ore sources, and corporate profits have recovered. Alumina companies' operating capacity has been increasing steadily since late May, reaching 93.85mn t. In June, net exports were 69.7k t, the lowest in nearly a year. The demand side is stable, with the weekly operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum reaching 44.204mn t. The upstream - downstream balance coefficient is 2.12, indicating oversupply. Although inventory data from different sources diverge, both show an inventory accumulation trend, but the absolute inventory level is relatively low [7] - After arbitrage opportunities opened, there was an expectation for new warehouse receipt registration. After the 07 contract delivery, the cancellation of old warehouse receipts led to a tight supply of warehouse receipts. In the short term, sufficient low - cost ore, the recovery of corporate operating capacity, and social inventory alleviated supply concerns. Aluminum oxide is expected to remain strong in the short term. Upstream companies can hedge at high prices, institutions can use straddle option strategies, and those with the means can engage in spot - futures arbitrage [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns an overall "oscillating" rating to the black building materials sector [6][8][9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the black market rose to a high level driven by macro factors, the market became extremely sensitive. Following the exchange's position - limit notice last Friday, the market sentiment took a sharp turn overnight, with coking coal hitting the daily limit. As the outcome of important meetings remains uncertain, funds tend to take a risk - averse approach. The fundamental situation in the industry has changed little, and no obvious turnaround has been observed in the terminal sector. After a large - scale replenishment in the middle reaches, a continuous price decline may lead to significant sales by traders, amplifying the bearish sentiment. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and in the long term, the overall trading should be bearish as the focus returns to the fundamentals [1][2] - The volatility of the black market has increased recently, and there may still be macro - level disturbances in the future. The key factors to watch are the implementation of policies and the performance of terminal demand [6] Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased on a month - on - month basis, while the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased as expected. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased significantly, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting the demand for iron ore. Due to low arrivals and high demand, the inventory at 45 ports of iron ore has slightly decreased. With high demand and stable supply, there is limited bearish driving force in the fundamentals of iron ore. However, as the short - term macro - level positive factors have been mostly priced in, the price is expected to oscillate [2] Carbon Element - After the exchange adjusted the trading limit of the JM2509 contract last Friday, the market sentiment quickly cooled down, and the coking coal futures hit the daily limit across the board. There are still disruptions in production at the origin, and the overall supply is slowly recovering. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal has been above 1,000 trucks in recent days, remaining at a high level. Affected by the sharp decline in the futures market, the downstream and traders have become more cautious, and the auction results have been mediocre. After three rounds of price increases for coke, the coking profit is still under pressure. Coke producers in the main producing areas initiated a fourth - round price increase over the weekend. Given the current tight supply - demand structure of coke and the pressure on coking profit, the fourth - round price increase is expected to be implemented soon. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [3] Alloys - Affected by the decline in coking coal futures, the manganese - silicon futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated widely. In the spot market, there is strong wait - and - see sentiment at the beginning of the week. With the futures market remaining at a high level, the spot prices remain firm. As coke enters the price - increase cycle, the cost support for manganese - silicon is continuously strengthening. Manganese ore traders at ports are more inclined to hold prices, and low - priced supplies are scarce, with the ore prices remaining stable overall. The output of ferrosilicon is expected to increase rapidly, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector [3][6] Glass - After the glass futures hit the daily limit, the market sentiment weakened rapidly, and the production - sales ratio dropped significantly. On the supply side, there are still two production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line has been shut down for cold repair. The overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and there are no prominent internal contradictions, but there are many market - sentiment disturbances. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the market's pessimistic expectations for the supply - demand fundamentals have returned. However, as the Politburo meeting is approaching, the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate. In the short term, both the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely. The long - term over - supply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the rising "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price. After the positive feedback, the inventory locked in the positive spread is large, and the delivery pressure is high. In the short term, it is easy to rise but difficult to fall, while in the long term, the price center will still decline [6] Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: After the exchange adjusted the coking coal trading limit, the market sentiment cooled down, and the futures prices fell from a high level. The spot trading volume of steel was generally weak, with only a small amount of speculative and rigid - demand purchases at low prices. Last week, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory decreased on a month - on - month basis; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory slightly accumulated; the supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and the inventory slightly decreased. The inventory is at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the fundamental contradictions in the off - season are not obvious. In the future, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation for steel, but due to the low inventory level, the fundamental pressure is limited. The futures prices are easily affected by market sentiment and are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [8] - **Iron Ore**: The arrivals at ports have decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The overseas mine shipments have increased on a month - on - month basis, while the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased as expected. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased significantly, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting the demand for iron ore. With high demand and stable supply, there is limited bearish driving force in the fundamentals of iron ore. However, as the short - term macro - level positive factors have been mostly priced in, the price is expected to oscillate [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume has significantly increased, and the spot price has risen. The fundamentals of scrap steel are acceptable, with an increase in rebar production, a decrease in inventory, and an increase in apparent demand this week. On the supply side, the arrival volume has increased significantly. On the demand side, the profits of electric arc furnaces during off - peak hours have improved, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process steelmaking has increased. The inventory in steel mills has slightly decreased. The demand for scrap steel is at a high level, and there are no prominent fundamental contradictions. After Shagang raised its price, the spot price has followed suit. However, as the steel price has declined, scrap steel itself lacks upward - driving force and is expected to oscillate [9] - **Coke**: The spot market has initiated a fourth - round price increase, and the futures followed coking coal to hit the daily limit. After three rounds of price increases, the coking profit is still under pressure, and coke producers in the main producing areas initiated a fourth - round price increase over the weekend. Meanwhile, the supply of coke is still affected by environmental protection and maintenance. On the demand side, although the molten iron output has slightly decreased on a month - on - month basis, it remains at a high level, and there is still rigid demand. The downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing inventory. The inventory of coke producers has continuously decreased. The current supply - demand structure of coke is tight, and the fourth - round price increase is expected to be implemented soon. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [10] - **Coking Coal**: There are continuous disturbances in coal mine supply, and the market enthusiasm remains high. In the futures market, there are strong expectations for the coal supply - side reform, and the positive market sentiment persists. In the spot market, the prices of coking coal have increased. On the supply side, there are still disruptions in production at the origin, and the supply is still restricted. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal has been around 1,000 trucks in recent days, and the port transactions are good. On the demand side, the coke output is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Recently, downstream enterprises and traders have been actively purchasing, resulting in a significant reduction in coal mine inventory. Currently, the fundamental supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and the key factors to watch are regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports. In the short term, coking coal still has upward potential due to market sentiment [11] - **Glass**: The speculative sentiment has declined, and the inventory in the middle reaches has significantly increased. The demand in the off - season has decreased, and the orders of deep - processing enterprises have declined on a month - on - month basis. After the futures hit the daily limit, the market sentiment weakened rapidly, and the production - sales ratio dropped significantly. On the supply side, the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and there are no prominent internal contradictions, but there are many market - sentiment disturbances. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the market's pessimistic expectations for the supply - demand fundamentals have returned. However, as the Politburo meeting is approaching, the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate. In the short term, both the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely. In the long term, if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [13] - **Soda Ash**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the futures and spot prices have rapidly declined. The supply capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term pressure. Although the production has decreased due to a pipeline problem at Jinshan No. 3 Plant today, the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to remain at a rigid - purchase level, and the demand has weakened. The downstream procurement of light soda ash has recovered, but the overall demand in the downstream is poor, mainly for periodic inventory replenishment. The long - term over - supply situation is difficult to change. In the short term, the rising "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price. After the positive feedback, the inventory in the middle reaches is high, and most of it is locked in the futures market, resulting in large delivery pressure. In July, there are planned maintenance activities, and with the support of the "anti - involution" sentiment, it is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, while in the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [14] - **Silicon Manganese**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated. Affected by the decline in coking coal futures, the manganese - silicon futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated widely. In the spot market, there is strong wait - and - see sentiment at the beginning of the week. With the futures market remaining at a high level, the spot prices remain firm. As coke enters the price - increase cycle, the cost support for manganese - silicon is continuously strengthening. Manganese ore traders at ports are more inclined to hold prices, and low - priced supplies are scarce, with the ore prices remaining stable overall. The downstream demand for manganese - silicon remains resilient, but as the profit - repair environment promotes the resumption of production by manufacturers, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector, and the upside potential in the long term should be viewed with caution [16] - **Ferrosilicon**: The bullish sentiment has cooled down, and the futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated. Affected by the decline in coking coal futures, the ferrosilicon futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated widely. In the spot market, the overall sentiment is acceptable, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. On the supply side, the industry's profit has improved significantly, and manufacturers are more motivated to resume production, so the output is expected to increase rapidly. On the demand side, the steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector. However, the supply - demand gap may narrow in the future, and the upside potential in the long term should be viewed with caution [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views Plastic - The plastic market maintains a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and a short - term correction is expected. The 2509 contract is expected to adjust in the range of 7200 - 7500, and it is recommended to short at high prices [3]. PP - The PP market has significant upward pressure in the medium - short term, and a short - term adjustment is expected. The 2509 contract is expected to adjust in the range of 6900 - 7200, and it is recommended to short at high prices [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On July 25, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7216 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from last week. LDPE, HDPE, and LLDPE prices all decreased. The LLDPE South China basis shrank, and the 6 - 9 month spread widened [3][6]. Fundamental Changes - Cost: WTI crude oil was at 65.07 dollars/barrel, down 0.96 dollars/barrel from last week; Brent crude oil was at 76.60 dollars/barrel, down 1.63 dollars/barrel. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [3][18]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PE was - 473 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based PE was 1142 yuan/ton, down 158 yuan/ton [3][23]. - Supply: The production start - up rate of Chinese polyethylene was 78.97%, up 0.76 percentage points from last week, and the weekly output was 61.51 tons, up 0.99%. The maintenance loss this week was 11.35 tons, up 0.76 tons [3][26]. - Demand: The overall start - up rate of agricultural films was 12.63%, up 0.28%; the start - up rate of PE packaging films was 48.07%, up 0.11%; the start - up rate of PE pipes was 28.83%, unchanged [3][31]. - Inventory: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 55.84 tons, up 2.18 tons from last week, a 4.06% increase [3][37]. Main Operating Logic - Macro factors and coal price speculation have boosted the PE price, but the expected new production capacity in the third quarter exerts pressure on the market. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the support from the demand side is weak. It is expected that the 2509 contract will correct in the short term [3]. PP Market Changes - On July 25, the closing price of polypropylene 2509 was 7221 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of PP shrank, and the 5 - 9 month spread widened [4][45]. Fundamental Changes - Cost: Similar to the plastic market, WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreased, and the anthracite price at the Yangtze River port increased [4][58]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PP was - 374.61 yuan/ton, down 39.77 yuan/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based PP was 732.33 yuan/ton, down 95.33 yuan/ton [4][62]. - Supply: The start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 76.96%, down 0.33 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets was 77.36 tons, down 0.89%, and the weekly output of PP powder was 7.03 tons, up 4.02% [4][65]. - Demand: The average start - up rate of downstream industries was 48.37%, down 0.15%. The start - up rate of plastic weaving decreased, BOPP increased slightly, injection molding remained unchanged, and pipes decreased [4][71]. - Inventory: The domestic inventory of polypropylene was 58.06 tons, a 1.54% decrease; the inventory of the two major oil companies increased by 2.15%, the inventory of traders increased by 9.33%, and the port inventory increased by 6.50% [4][77]. Main Operating Logic - Macro sentiment has boosted the PP price, but the impact on supply is limited. The demand remains weak, and the market pressure is still large in the short term [4].