投资力度回升，拿地销售比回升至0.23；归母净利连续三年亏损。 ◎ 作者 / 沈晓玲、陈家凤 核 心 观 点 【 杭州、西安销售额贡献超4成，京沪降幅靠前】 2024年大悦城控股实现销售额369亿，同比下滑20%； 销售权益比例44.5%，较去年同期减少5.5pct ， 需警惕合作方风险。据年报披露的销售明细显示， 全年86%销售额由一二线贡献 ，杭州、西安销售额贡献超4成，北京、上海和天津等地合计销售贡献约 14亿元，单城销售降幅均超70%，表现相对疲软。 【 投资力度回升，拿地销售比升至0.23】 2024年大悦城控股投资力度回升，新增5宗地块，拿地建面56万平，基于2023年低基数的影响， 同比大幅增加 232%， 土地总价款84亿， 同比增幅约33% ，按金额计 拿地销售比从去年的0.14回升至0.23 。年内投资的杭州萧山区世纪城钱塘湾总部住宅地块，全年 单盘贡献约91亿，成为大悦城全国销冠，然而该项目楼面价占到售价的65%，盈利空间被压缩。未来需做好地块流量和盈利之间的平衡，才能修复长期盈 利水平。2024年末大悦城剩余可开发计容建面 1 822万方，较年初下滑16%，足够支撑未来3-4年左右的开 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9] Core Insights - The company is a rare diversified real estate developer in China, with financial, operational, and brand advantages that have helped improve its sales ranking despite market challenges. The company has ample and high-quality land reserves, ensuring stable future sales. The pressure from impairments has been relatively well-managed, and new land acquisitions are expected to be profitable, indicating solid performance and high realization rates [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 278.8 billion (up 11.0%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 25.6 billion (down 18.5%). The core net profit was 25.42 billion (down 8.5%), with a comprehensive gross margin of 21.6% (down 3.5 percentage points) and a dividend payout ratio of 36.9%, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.6% [6][9]. Sales and Market Position - The company’s total sales for 2024 were 261.1 billion (down 15.0%), with a market share increase to 2.7%, marking its entry into the top three in the industry. In 2024, the company acquired 29 projects with a total investment of 77.58 billion (down 56.1%), indicating a conservative approach in the first half of the year but a quicker investment pace as the market improved towards the end of the year [6][9]. Operational Efficiency - As a leader in commercial real estate, the company has a strong competitive edge in various aspects such as layout, leasing, operations, and luxury retail. In 2024, the retail sales from shopping centers reached 195.3 billion (up 19.2%), with rental income of 19.3 billion (up 8.4%). The company plans to open six new shopping centers annually from 2025 to 2028, increasing the total to 116 by the end of 2028 [2][6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a stable outlook for future performance, with projected net profits attributable to shareholders of 26.2 billion, 27.0 billion, and 28.2 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 2%, 3%, and 5%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are forecasted to be 6.4, 6.2, and 6.0 [2][6].