2025 年 05 月 12 日 A 股供需格局展望重回临界值 ——申万宏源策略中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明点评 20250512 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 一、原有的市场预期：特朗普政策执行效果已明显偏离了米兰报告的设想。所以特朗普政 策应该调整，中美开启谈判进程在情理之中。特朗普政策调整速度偏慢、力度偏弱是基准 假设。这种情况下的基本面预期是二季度外需回落压力初步显现，三季度压力可能再加大。 A 股盈利能力会有额外下行压力，2025 年内盈利能力难有向上拐点，2026 年供给全面 出清后，才有供需格局改善的可能性。 ⚫ 二、中美日内瓦经贸会谈后的预期：4 月 2 日后额外加征的关税下修至 10%，90 天缓和 期与其他国家看齐，美国关税政策幅度超预期。二季度抢出口 + 美国批发零售企业对中 国商品超额回补，二季度中国经济验证可能维持强韧性。如果把美国调整后的关税水平线 性外推，2025H2 A 股供需格局可能重新回到"临界水平"，若国内刺激政策维持强势， 则 2025H2 有可能实现盈利能力改善，2026 年改善确定性再次提高。 ⚫ 后续依然值得关注的变化：特朗普对米兰报告可能只是回归了原 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a slight pullback after a strong opening, with the Sci-Tech Chip Index rising by 0.38%, driven by significant gains in stocks like Yuanjie Technology, which increased by over 7% [1] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) also saw a rise of 0.38%, with a trading volume exceeding 700 million yuan and a turnover rate of nearly 3%, indicating active trading and a slight premium in the market [1][2] - There was a net inflow of over 310 million yuan into the Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) the previous day, reflecting strong investor interest in semiconductor-related stocks [2] Group 2 - The Financial Regulatory Administration announced eight new policies aimed at increasing market liquidity, including measures to support small and private enterprises, and enhance investment in technology companies [2] - According to Everbright Securities, the A-share market is expected to trend upwards due to ongoing policy support and the inflow of medium to long-term funds, with current valuations near the average since 2010 [3] - Guosheng Securities highlighted that the focus for May should be on sectors with independent industrial trends, such as domestic AI, smart vehicles, and robotics, while also considering policies related to domestic consumption and real estate [3]

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 05 07 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 A 股一季度报盈利特征&5 月市场观点 今日概览 重磅研报 【策略】A 股 25Q1 盈利与供需特征如何？——25Q1 财报分析（一）— —20250506 研究视点 【食品饮料】零售变革草根调研（二）四川零食有鸣批发超市：多品类 折扣先行者，千店规模优势深厚——20250506 【通信】润泽科技（300442.SZ）-改造机房适配新需求，AIDC 高增趋势 未改——20250506 【电新】同飞股份（300990.SZ）-25Q1 毛利率环比持续提升，期待公司 数据中心、半导体温控收入放量——20250506 作者 | 分析师 熊园 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680518050004 | | | | | 邮箱：xiongyuan@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 美容护理 | 15.6% | 12.4% | -4.2% | | 计算机 | 14.6% | -1 ...

Group 1: Tariff Impact Analysis - The report highlights that the actual impact of tariff increases will gradually become evident, with significant concerns regarding the overall tariff rate and its effects on exports and economic growth [1][9][14] - Four scenarios of tariff increases were analyzed, resulting in overall tariff rates of approximately 33.4%, 53.0%, 81.9%, and 105.6% respectively [1][14][18] - The estimated impact on China's overall exports under these scenarios is projected to be a decline of 8.7%, 11.7%, 12.7%, and 12.7%, with actual drag expected to be around 7%-10% when considering potential new transshipment trade and overseas factories [2][16][18] Group 2: Economic Growth Impact - The report estimates that the GDP drag from the four tariff scenarios will be approximately 1.2%, 1.6%, 1.7%, and 1.7%, with actual impacts potentially ranging from 1% to 1.4% when accounting for mitigating factors [2][16][18] - The analysis indicates that the household appliances and light manufacturing sectors will face the most significant pressure, followed by electronics, beauty care, power equipment, machinery, basic chemicals, automotive, textiles, and non-ferrous metals [2][17][18] Group 3: Monthly Market Review - The report notes that in April, global risk appetite experienced significant fluctuations due to unexpected tariff announcements, leading to a sharp decline in stock and bond markets, followed by a gradual recovery [3][19] - A-shares showed a "√" shaped recovery pattern, although most indices ended the month lower, with domestic demand and dividend stocks performing relatively better [3][19][20] Group 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report anticipates a continuation of the volatile market pattern, influenced by U.S.-China tensions, liquidity conditions, and policy shifts [4][5] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with independent industrial trends, such as domestic AI, smart vehicles, and robotics, while also considering policy-driven sectors like domestic consumption and real estate [5]

Group 1: Asset Structure - The asset structure of Chinese technology assets shows that A-shares are more focused on manufacturing, while Hong Kong and US stocks lean towards internet software services and new energy vehicle sectors [9][10][11] - In A-shares, technology assets account for nearly 50% of the market, with hardware and electrical equipment dominating [9] - In Hong Kong, technology assets represent 61% of the market, with a balanced distribution between technology services and manufacturing [10] - In the US, technology assets account for approximately 92% of the market, predominantly in software services and internet companies [11] Group 2: Performance Comparison - Since 2024, the revenue and profit growth rates of technology assets in Hong Kong and the US have surpassed those in A-shares, with ROE_TTM also beginning to exceed A-shares [21][22] - As of Q3 2024, the revenue growth rates for A-shares, Hong Kong, and US-listed Chinese technology assets were 3.5%, 7.5%, and 14.1% respectively, while net profit growth rates were -11.3%, 31.2%, and 76.1% [23] - The profitability of technology assets in Hong Kong and the US is significantly higher, particularly in the software services and media sectors, compared to A-shares [32][33] Group 3: Valuation Comparison - The valuation of A-shares is generally lower than that of Hong Kong and US stocks, with A-share technology indices trading at historical averages [6][21] - As of March 11, 2025, the PE ratios for A-shares' ChiNext 50 and Sci-Tech Innovation 50 indices were 32x and 41x, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech index was at 25x [21] - The PS ratios for A-shares' Sci-Tech 50 and Sci-Tech 100 indices were 5x and 6.8x, indicating a potential for upward valuation adjustments [21] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The report suggests that the revaluation of Chinese technology assets is expected to continue, with each market having its unique advantages [5][21] - The ongoing support for technological innovation from government policies, particularly in AI and robotics, is anticipated to drive further interest in these assets [5][21]