Group 1: Social Financing and Monetary Policy - In April, China's social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.22 trillion yuan, totaling 16.34 trillion yuan in the first four months, which is 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 325.17 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 109.14 trillion yuan, up by 1.5% [1] - The widening M2-M1 gap indicates overall market liquidity is ample, but the flow of funds into the real economy needs improvement [2] Group 2: International Relations and Trade - China will implement a visa-free policy for citizens of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, and Uruguay from June 1, 2025, facilitating business and tourism [3] - The expansion of China's "visa-free circle" is expected to boost tourism and foreign investment, as more international visitors gain direct experience of China [4] Group 3: Shipping and Trade Volume - Container bookings from China to the U.S. surged by 277% to 21,530 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) following the recent tariff agreement, indicating a strong rebound in trade activity [5] - The increase in shipping demand is attributed to traders taking advantage of the temporary tariff suspension to stock up on goods [6] Group 4: Venture Capital and Technology Financing - Seven Chinese government departments announced the establishment of a national venture capital guidance fund to support long-term investments in technology [7] - The initiative aims to enhance financing for technology companies, particularly in their early stages, addressing the challenges of converting research into marketable products [8] Group 5: Corporate Earnings and Market Performance - Tencent reported a 13% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1, reaching 180 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 7% to 47.82 billion yuan [9] - Despite strong performance in gaming and advertising, Tencent's e-commerce strategy faces challenges, with unclear long-term planning [10] Group 6: Real Estate Financing - Vanke received a loan of up to 15.52 billion yuan from its largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, as part of ongoing financial support amid market challenges [11] - The cumulative loans from Shenzhen Metro to Vanke have reached nearly 12 billion yuan this year, highlighting the ongoing financial strain on Vanke [12] Group 7: U.S. Treasury Yields and Economic Outlook - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield approached 5%, reflecting concerns over rising fiscal deficits and the impact of proposed tax cuts [13] - The relationship between rising Treasury yields and the dollar's strength is weakening, indicating market uncertainty regarding U.S. economic prospects [14] Group 8: Stock Market Trends - The Chinese stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.68% amid mixed sector performance [15] - Consumer stocks showed resilience, while technology sectors faced adjustments, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the overseas market's risk aversion declined, but risk appetite remained constrained, and the rebound of US stocks showed signs of slowing. In contrast, the domestic A-share market rebounded led by the large financial sector, yet more stocks declined than rose. With support at the bottom and a lack of strong fundamental support at the top, it is highly likely that funds will rotate into the large financial sector during the dividend - intensive period. When there is no leading sector in the market, chasing the rise is not advisable. Today, attention should be paid to the activity of individual stocks and sector rotation during the index fluctuations. Currently, the strategy should maintain a balanced style [3][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 3.1.1海外隔夜 - The US government stated that it is "close to reaching" a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India, and also indicated that it does not seek a weaker US dollar in tariff negotiations. Overnight, the US dollar index rose after a decline, ending slightly higher. Both short - and long - term US Treasury yields increased, gold prices fell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined among the three major US stock indexes, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated. Although market risk aversion improved, future uncertainties still restricted market risk appetite [2][5] 3.1.2国内行情回顾 - On Wednesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and then rose 0.86%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01%. The market showed a rebound trend. In the morning session, the market was in a stalemate, and in the afternoon, the index rebounded rapidly led by the large financial sector. However, the market had a significant 2 - 8 divergence, with more stocks declining than rising. In terms of sectors, non - bank finance, transportation, food and beverage, and commerce and retail led the gains, while military industry, beauty care, machinery and equipment, and social services led the losses. There were 2327 rising stocks and 2816 falling stocks in the entire market. Seven departments including the Ministry of Science and Technology issued policies to accelerate the construction of a science - finance system and established the "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" [2][6] 3.1.3重要资讯 - Trade tariff news: The US is close to reaching a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India; the US does not seek a weaker dollar in tariff negotiations; the EU plans to impose higher tariffs on Ukrainian imports; Trump has rewritten trade rules over 50 times in 100 days. - Russia - Ukraine talks: Putin determined the Russian delegation list for the Russia - Ukraine negotiations; Rubio and Zelensky headed to Turkey; Putin has no intention of having a one - on - one meeting with Zelensky; the EU agreed to impose the 17th round of sanctions on Russia. - Central bank data: From January to April, the increment of social financing was 16.34 trillion yuan, and new loans reached 10.06 trillion yuan. In April, M2 increased by 8% year - on - year. - Other news: The second meeting of the China - EU Financial Working Group was held in Brussels; seven departments including the Ministry of Science and Technology issued policies on science - finance; the international road transport route from China to Hanoi, Vietnam was officially opened; the US adjusted tariffs on China; the Ministry of Commerce responded to questions about suspending 17 US entities from the unreliable entity list and export control list [7][8][9][10][11][12] 3.1.4今日策略 - Overnight, the overseas market's risk aversion declined, but risk appetite remained constrained, and the rebound of US stocks showed signs of slowing. The domestic A - share market rebounded led by the large financial sector, yet more stocks declined than rose. With support at the bottom and a lack of strong fundamental support at the top, it is highly likely that funds will rotate into the large financial sector during the dividend - intensive period. When there is no leading sector in the market, chasing the rise is not advisable. Today, attention should be paid to the activity of individual stocks and sector rotation during the index fluctuations. Currently, the strategy should maintain a balanced style [3][13] 3.2期货市场跟踪 - The report presents detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest [15][16] 3.3现货市场跟踪 - The report shows the performance of the spot market, including the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and valuation data of major indexes such as the Wande All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index. It also analyzes the impact of market styles on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, and presents the valuation data of important indexes and Shenwan sectors, as well as data on market trading volume, turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks, and index trading volume changes [40][41][42] 3.4流动性跟踪 - The report includes charts on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rate levels, which are used to track market liquidity [58]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the issuance of a notification by seven departments, including the Ministry of Science and Technology and the People's Bank of China, aimed at accelerating the construction of a technology finance system to support high-level technological self-reliance and strength [1][2] - The notification emphasizes the role of venture capital in supporting technological innovation, establishing a "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" to promote the growth of technology-based enterprises and strategic emerging industries [1] - It aims to broaden the sources of venture capital funding by expanding the pilot scope of financial asset investment companies (AIC) to 18 provincial cities and encouraging insurance funds to participate in venture capital investments [1][2] Group 2 - The notification also focuses on optimizing the evaluation mechanism for state-owned venture capital, ensuring that state-owned capital becomes a long-term and patient capital for supporting venture investments [2] - It highlights the need to improve exit channels for venture capital, assessing the effectiveness of private equity fund share transfer trials in regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong, and optimizing the share transfer process [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of a new policy initiative aimed at accelerating the construction of a technology finance system to support high-level technological self-reliance and innovation in China [1][2][3] - The policy initiative includes 15 measures across 7 areas, focusing on venture capital, bank credit, capital markets, technology insurance, fiscal policies, central-local collaboration, and creating an open innovation ecosystem for technology finance [1][2] - A notable measure is the establishment of a "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" to promote the growth of technology-based enterprises and support the development of strategic emerging industries [1][2] Group 2 - The initiative emphasizes the importance of bank credit in supporting technological innovation, encouraging financial institutions to increase support for major national technology tasks and technology-based SMEs [2][3] - It proposes a special mechanism for bank credit support for technology innovation, including the establishment of identification standards for technology-based enterprises and a recommendation mechanism to facilitate effective support from financial institutions [2] - The policy also highlights the role of capital markets in supporting technology innovation, advocating for a counter-cyclical adjustment mechanism for new stock issuances and prioritizing financing for technology-based enterprises that achieve core technological breakthroughs [2][3] Group 3 - The initiative outlines the role of technology insurance as a stabilizing factor in supporting innovation, proposing the development of a comprehensive insurance product and service system covering the entire lifecycle of technology-based enterprises [2][3] - It encourages the participation of insurance funds in implementing major national technology tasks and explores risk-sharing pilot projects in key technology areas [2][3] - The policy aims to leverage fiscal policies to mobilize more financial resources for technology innovation, utilizing existing loan interest subsidies, insurance subsidies, and risk compensation policies [3] Group 4 - The initiative promotes central-local collaboration in advancing national technology finance efforts, including the establishment of innovation point systems and the implementation of special guarantee plans linked to technology innovation [3] - It supports foreign investment in domestic technology-based enterprises and the lawful overseas listing of technology-based companies [3] - A coordinated mechanism among the People's Bank of China, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and other regulatory bodies will be established to enhance policy coordination and information sharing in technology finance [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The short - term outlook for treasury bonds is positive [4] Group 2: Core Views - For stock indices, China's April social financing increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 280 billion yuan, the M2 - M1 gap widened, and RMB deposits increased by 12.55 trillion yuan in the first four months. The establishment of the "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" was announced. The North - bound 50 and Flush micro - cap stocks reached new highs, while bank ETFs also neared historical highs, indicating more volatile subsequent stock index movements. Currently, the market index is close to the March high, but the fundamentals, sentiment, hot topics, and trading volume are not as good as in March. It is advisable to adopt a defensive stance and wait for a clear direction [1] - For treasury bonds, in the short term, the market is in a state of multi - empty equilibrium. The trading around short - term tariff issues is almost over. The core issues driving the market are whether funds can remain stable and whether there will be a rebound in production and exports. There is no clear tendency in the game between reality and expectations, and the market trend is rather confusing. It is difficult for the yield to break through the oscillation range since April before the continuous loosening of funds is disproven and the expectation of fundamental improvement is confirmed [3] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations - For stock indices, adopt a defensive stance and wait and see [2] - For treasury bonds, be bullish in the short term [4] Group 4: Market Review - For stock indices, the futures of the CSI 300 index main contract rose 1.45%, the SSE 50 index main contract futures rose 1.85%, the CSI 500 index main contract futures rose 0.77%, and the CSI 1000 index main contract futures rose 0.77% [6] - For treasury bonds, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.12%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.13%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.23%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.05% [9] Group 5: Technical Analysis - For stock indices, the KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows possible oscillatory movement with adjustment risks [7] - For treasury bonds, the KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows oscillatory movement with a possible rebound [10] Group 6: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3907.40 | 1.45 | 81957 | 164602 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2737.60 | 1.85 | 48329 | 61472 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5697.80 | 0.77 | 72621 | 117024 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6043.00 | 0.77 | 189515 | 196475 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.53 | - 0.12 | 68753 | 126019 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.81 | - 0.13 | 55124 | 104037 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.93 | - 0.23 | 78310 | 59236 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.29 | - 0.05 | 35705 | 59021 | [12]

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 经中美日内瓦会谈后，双方关税回到 4 月 2 日再各加 10%水平，双方关系缓 和超预期，市场情绪明显提振。从宏观经济基本面来看，一季度开局良好，且随 着"抢出口"转为"抢转口"，外贸数据表现出一定韧性，宏观经济表现或好于 原本预期。国内政策方面，随着 5.7 政策落地，国家稳市场、稳预期信心进一步 增强，同时互换便利与回购增持再贷款额度合并后"国家队"资金储备充足，股 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 5 月 ...

2025年05月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 | | 观点与策略 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金：下破支撑位 | | 2 | | 白银：震荡回落 | | 2 | | 铜：美元下测后回升，限制价格上涨 | | 4 | | 铝：偏强运行 | | 6 | | 氧化铝：大幅反弹 | | 6 | | 锌：短期存支撑 | | 8 | | 铅：区间震荡 | | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 15 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 期货研究 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | ...

2025年05月15日 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 | | --- | 观点与策略 | 黄金：下破支撑位 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 3 | | 铜：美元下测后回升，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：偏强运行 | 7 | | 氧化铝：大幅反弹 | 7 | | 锌：短期存支撑 | 9 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面变化有限 | 13 | | 不锈钢：社会库存边际累增，盘面成本预期支撑 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：基本面仍偏弱，上方空间或有限 | 15 | | 工业硅：市场情绪扰动 | 17 | | 多晶硅：关注现货报价情况 | 17 | | 铁矿石：宏观预期提振，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪推动，商品走势普涨 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪推动，商品走势普涨 | 20 | | 硅铁：钢招询盘试价，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：钢招询盘试价，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：一轮提降发起，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Data**: In the first four months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In April, the social financing scale increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans of 280 billion yuan. At the end of April, M2 balance was 325.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%, and M1 balance was 109.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The M2 - M1 scissors - gap widened to 6.5 percentage points [8]. - **Alumina**: Near - end spot supply and demand are tight, with resonance in domestic and foreign markets. The price rose due to macro sentiment and trading factors. The short - term supply is tight, and the sustainability depends on the dynamic changes of operating capacity. In the medium - to - long - term, if the capacity event of converting aluminum hydroxide to alumina does not lead to industry - wide capacity regulation, the overall supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [10][11]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Shipping companies' price hikes and the easing of Sino - US tariffs have boosted market sentiment. The short - term trend is strong. It is recommended to hold 6 - 8 and 10 - 12 reverse spreads [12]. - **Palm Oil**: Supported by the sentiment of US biodiesel, international oils are oscillating strongly within a range. The selling pressure from April to May in the producing areas has been realized, and the pricing expectations for the next stage still come from the复产 in the producing areas and the industrial demand for US soybean oil. The risks in the producing areas have not been fully released before July, but the international soybean oil has strong support, so palm oil rebounds strongly within the range. It is necessary to pay attention to the upward pressure from the loosening of its own supply - demand and the sustainability of the US soybean oil sentiment bubble [12][13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by macro - sentiment, the fundamentals are still weak. The export demand is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. The downstream sentiment in the spot market is pessimistic, and the inventory is at a high level, suppressing price increases. The cost support is weakening, and the price rebound space is limited [14]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold broke below the support level, and silver oscillated downward. The trend intensity of both is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [17][22][25]. - **Copper**: The dollar first declined and then rebounded, restricting price increases. The trend intensity is 0, showing a neutral outlook [17][27][29]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum is running strongly, and alumina has rebounded significantly. The trend intensity of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. On May 14, Vietnam and Western Australia had alumina transactions [30][32]. - **Zinc**: There is short - term support. The trend intensity is 0, showing a neutral outlook [17][33][34]. - **Lead**: It is oscillating within a range. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][36][37]. - **Tin**: It is oscillating narrowly. The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [17][40][44]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, news affects sentiment, and the fundamentals change little. For stainless steel, the social inventory is increasing marginally, and the cost expectation supports the price. The trend intensity of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][45][49]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward space is limited. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][50][53]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is affected by market sentiment, and polysilicon requires attention to spot price quotations. The trend intensity of both is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [17][54][57]. Energy and Chemicals - **Iron Ore**: Boosted by macro - expectations, it is oscillating widely. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][58]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro - sentiment, the prices are rising. The trend intensity of both is 1, indicating a bullish outlook [17][60][62]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Steel mills are inquiring about prices for procurement, and both are oscillating widely. The trend intensity of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][64][66]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has initiated a first - round price cut and is oscillating widely. Coking coal is also oscillating widely. The trend intensity of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][68][72]. - **Steam Coal**: The coal mine inventory is increasing, and it is oscillating weakly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][73][75]. - **Log**: Boosted by macro - expectations, it is oscillating repeatedly [76]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: For palm oil, the pressure has been released, and there is support below. For soybean oil, affected by the hype of US biodiesel, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [20]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: Soybean meal is oscillating, and soybean is also oscillating on the disk [20]. - **Corn**: It is oscillating strongly [20]. - **Sugar**: Domestic production is increasing continuously [20]. - **Cotton**: Driven by market optimism, cotton futures have rebounded [20]. - **Egg**: It is oscillating and adjusting [20]. - **Pig**: There is short - term gaming, with pre - trading of inventory reduction followed by re - inventory increase [20]. - **Peanut**: It is oscillating strongly [20].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 15 日 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2506 | 759.70 | -0.74% | 748.68 | -2.04% | | | 黄金T+D | 758.60 | -0.63% | 745.50 | -1.91% | | | Comex黄金2506 | 3176.00 | -2.40% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3180.00 | -2.27% | - | - | | | 沪银2506 | 8172 | -0.57% | 8085.00 | -1.40% | | 期货及现货电 | 白银T+D | 8172 | ...