期货价格波动影响下，近日国内品牌金饰价格也连续上涨。 记者查阅周大福、周生生等品牌金饰小程序报价了解到，12月23日多个品牌足金首饰克单价已突破1400 元。其中周大福、周生生、潮宏基足金饰品卖出价均为1403元/克，老凤祥足金零售价为1399元/克。 12月23日，国际金价延续涨势，沪金主力合约2602一举突破1000元/克大关，盘中最高冲抵1018.68元/ 克，刷新历史高位。截至下午收盘，该主力合约录得2.73%涨幅，年内最大涨幅超过65%。 除黄金外，近期白银、铂、钯等贵金属涨势更为显著。 12月23日，国内期货市场主力合约中铂涨停，收盘报619.95元/克，钯、沪银也分别录得5.52%、4.3%的 单日涨幅。 贵金属价格显著波动背景下，12月22日晚间，上期所发布公告，针对白银期货相关合约出台多项风险防 范措施，内容涵盖调整交易限额、调整平今仓交易手续费等。 银河期货也认为，短期市场无论宏观环境还是交割压力都有利于贵金属上涨，长期看人们对美联储的独 立性及美债美元的担忧导致贵金属市场仍然具有看涨预期，市场走势强劲。 责编：彭勃 其次，地缘政治危机集中爆发引发了市场避险买盘。从加勒比海的油轮拦截，到黑 ...

在这场战争与和平的博弈中，乌克兰的处境十分尴尬。它更多是谈判中的客体而非主体，这一点在美乌会谈与美俄谈判的对比中尤为明显。战争与和平的选 择比表面看起来更为复杂。有时，选择战争可能被认为是更安全的政治选择，因为它常被视为一种正确的爱国行为。而推动和平则可能需要承担政治上的耻 辱风险。 真正的政治勇气，不仅仅体现在果敢投入战争上，更体现在能够承受误解和污名，为了实现和平做出艰难的妥协。历史上的伟大政治家都明白， 有时，耻辱的和平比荣耀的战争更能保障国家的长远利益。 随着欧洲天然气价格逐渐稳定在新的平衡点，替代能源基础设施逐步完善，欧洲社会正在适应 没有俄罗斯廉价能源的日子。战场上的僵局逐渐转变为谈判桌上的筹码交换。各大国之间的外交沟通，比公开的声明要更加频繁。或许正如一些观察者所 说，当双方都意识到无法通过军事手段达到所有目标时，外交解决方案的窗口才会真正打开。真正的和平不仅仅需要停止枪声，更需要政治智慧去解决那些 引发冲突的根本性矛盾。在这个过程中，战争已经改变了国家关系和地区格局，而这些变化也不可能再回到过去的模样。 本文仅在今日头条发布，谢绝转载。 尽管谈判桌上似乎已经接近崩溃，但这恰恰是双方开始接触真正 ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the price of aluminum ingots is expected to operate at a high level in the short term [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival (from mid - January to around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month), affecting 741,000 tons of construction steel production [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel plants has stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, with daily output affected by about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished product price continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low recently, with a downward - moving price center due to weak supply - demand and pessimistic market sentiment, and the winter storage is sluggish this year [3] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level. In November, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than 3% in September, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January has slightly increased [2] - The new production capacity of domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum is steadily released, and the weekly output has increased. The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.5% [3] - The primary aluminum alloy industry's operating rate remained at 60%, the same as last week; the aluminum plate and strip operating rate was stable at 65.0% but under pressure; the aluminum cable operating rate decreased by 0.4% to 62%; the aluminum profile operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 51.6% [3] - On December 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 596,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last Thursday and 1,000 tons from last Monday [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cuts, geopolitical crises, and central bank gold purchases, the prices of gold and silver showed significant upward trends. Looking ahead to 2026, the prospects for the precious metals market remain optimistic, with continued fiscal expansion in major countries, expected further interest - rate cuts by the Fed, and the existence of stagflation risks in the US, all of which may support investment demand for precious metals [2][158]. Summary According to the Directory Part I: Precious Metals Market Review - **Gold Market Review** - **Historical Gold Market Review**: Gold had three major bull markets in the past 60 years. From 1971 - 1980, the price rose from $35/ounce to $850/ounce; from 2001 - 2011, it increased from $255/ounce to $1920/ounce; and from 2016 - 2025, it reached over $4000/ounce [5][6][8]. - **2025 Gold Market Review**: COMEX gold futures rose from $2758/ounce at the end of 2024 to a high of $4398/ounce on October 20, a cumulative increase of over 59%. SHFE gold futures also reached a record high of 1005.08 yuan/gram on October 21 [2][12]. - **Silver Market Review** - **Historical Silver Market Review**: Over the past 60 years, silver prices have fluctuated significantly. From 1971 - 1980, they soared from $1.5/ounce to $49.45/ounce; from 2001 - 2011, they increased from $4/ounce to $49/ounce; and from 2021 - 2025, they broke through $50/ounce [17][19]. - **2025 Silver Market Review**: COMEX silver rose from $30.5/ounce at the end of 2024 to a high of $55.13/ounce on November 13, an increase of 78%. SHFE silver reached a high of 12664 yuan/kg on November 13, a maximum increase of 67% [21]. Part II: Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics on Precious Metals Prices - **Impact of the US Economy on Precious Metals Prices** - **Impact of the US Interest - Rate Cut Cycle**: The expectation of the US interest - rate cut cycle supported the sharp rise in precious metals prices. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates twice, which reduced the yield of traditional assets and increased the attractiveness of gold [29]. - **Impact of the US Economy**: In 2025, the US GDP was expected to grow by 2% year - on - year, with core CPI remaining around 3.1%. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, and the manufacturing PMI was below 50. The service industry drove the US economy to maintain resilience. The "big and beautiful" tax and expenditure bill worsened the US's medium - and long - term fiscal outlook, consolidating the bullish trend of gold [31][34]. - **Impact of the US Dollar Index Trend**: The US dollar index was negatively correlated with precious metals prices. In 2025, the weakening US dollar index supported precious metals prices, but in 2026, its support may weaken [43]. - **Impact of Central Bank Gold Purchases on Precious Metals Prices**: Global central banks continued to increase their gold reserves in 2025. In the third quarter, the net gold purchases reached 220 tons, a 28% increase from the second quarter and a 10% increase year - on - year. Most central banks still plan to increase their gold reserves in the future [44][48]. - **Impact of Geopolitical Crises on Precious Metals Prices**: Geopolitical conflicts such as the Middle East situation, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Israel - Palestine conflict increased market uncertainty and risk - aversion sentiment, driving investors to turn to gold. These events also affected the supply and demand pattern of gold [53]. Part III: Precious Metals Supply and Demand Analysis - **Gold Supply and Demand Analysis** - **Gold Supply Analysis**: In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw - material gold production was 271.782 tons, a 1.39% increase year - on - year, and imported raw - material gold production was 121.149 tons, an 8.94% increase. The global total gold supply was 3717.4 tons [54]. - **Gold Demand Analysis**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the global total gold demand was 3717.4 tons, a slight increase. China's gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a 7.95% decrease year - on - year [60]. - **Gold Inventory Analysis**: In 2025, SHF gold inventory continued to rise, especially after September, while COMEX gold inventory was stable after the first - quarter increase and gradually declined slightly in October [66]. - **Silver Supply and Demand Analysis** - **Silver Supply Analysis**: It was expected that the global silver supply in 2025 would increase by 2% year - on - year to 1030.6 million ounces, mainly due to a 2% increase in mined silver [71]. - **Silver Demand Analysis**: It was expected that the global silver demand in 2025 would decrease by 1% year - on - year to 1148.3 million ounces, with a 0.5% decrease in industrial demand, a 6% decrease in jewelry demand, and a 7% increase in investment demand [74]. - **Silver Inventory Analysis**: SHFE silver inventory decreased from a high at the beginning of 2025, then increased significantly from late May to early July, and then decreased. COMEX silver inventory increased in the first quarter and then fluctuated. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory also showed a downward trend [75]. Part IV: Precious Metals Market Arbitrage Analysis and Position Analysis - **Gold Market Arbitrage Analysis and Position Analysis** - **Domestic Gold Futures - Spot Arbitrage Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE gold futures active contracts was mostly negative, with positive spreads appearing in October, presenting arbitrage opportunities [84]. - **Gold Inter - Period Arbitrage Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE gold futures active and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with opportunities for inter - period arbitrage when the spread decreased significantly [88]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio Analysis**: In 2025, the gold - silver ratio fluctuated sharply. After a significant decline from the high, its future direction was difficult to predict [89]. - **SHFE Gold Position and Capital Inflow Analysis**: In 2025, domestic institutional net positions in SHFE gold futures were mostly long. The net long positions decreased during the rapid rise in gold prices from September to October [94]. - **Silver Market Arbitrage Analysis and Position Analysis** - **Silver Basis Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE silver futures active contracts was mostly negative, with positive spreads appearing in October and then returning to negative [105]. - **Silver Inter - Period Spread Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE silver futures active and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with significant fluctuations during the year [109]. - **SHFE Silver Position and Capital Inflow Analysis**: In 2025, domestic institutional net positions in SHFE silver futures were long. Capital inflow was obvious from January to mid - June, then fluctuated horizontally, and increased again from September to early October [114]. Part V: Precious Metals Options Analysis and Strategies - The implied volatility of gold and silver options has increased in the past two years. The put - call ratio of gold options indicates a bullish market, while the put - call ratio of silver options shows that investors may be more inclined to buy put options in October to avoid risks [126]. - Strategies include buying at - the - money call options when expecting price increases and increased volatility, selling out - of - the - money put options when expecting price increases but decreased volatility, selling strangles when implied volatility is high, and buying at - the - money straddles when expecting significant market fluctuations [127]. Part VI: Precious Metals Seasonal Analysis - Based on a five - year seasonal analysis, precious metals are more likely to rise in April and October and more likely to fall in June [144]. Part VII: Outlook on Factors Affecting Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Technical Analysis - **Fed's 2026 Interest - Rate Cut Rhythm and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2026, with two possible cuts in the first half of the year, which is beneficial to precious metals prices [154]. - **US Government Policy Orientation in 2026 and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: The US economy is expected to grow in 2026, with a high fiscal deficit rate. If the impact of tariffs on inflation is one - time, inflation will have less restraint on interest - rate cuts [155]. - **Impact of Gold Supply - Demand Balance on Gold Prices**: In 2025, gold demand growth was mainly driven by investment demand. In the third quarter, investment demand increased by 47% year - on - year. In 2026, the gold market outlook remains optimistic [158]. - **Technical Analysis of Precious Metals Price Trends**: Technically, COMEX gold has strong support at $3500, and COMEX silver has strong support at $40. SHFE gold has support at 780 yuan, and SHFE silver has support at 9400 yuan [161]. Part VIII: Outlook on Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the global macro - game pattern remains unchanged. The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits in major economies, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support precious metals prices. Buying on dips can be considered as a trading strategy [174].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，因其在供需双弱格局下市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，且今年冬储低迷对价格支撑不强[4] -铝土矿预计价格维持弱势震荡，虽北方地区国产矿供应偏紧，但铝土矿绝对库存仍处高位，氧化铝厂加价采购意愿偏低[4] -铝价预计短期高位震荡，宏观多空情绪交织，基本面对海外供应收紧有预期，国内淡季来临消费延后兑现，库存走势反复且上方有压力[5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 成材方面 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，复产预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右[3] -安徽省6家短流程钢厂，1家1月5日已停产，大部分1月中旬左右停产，个别1月20日后停产，停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右[4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2%[4] -成材昨日震荡下行价格创新低，市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强[4] 铝土矿方面 -北方地区国产矿供应偏紧格局延续，因接受环保督察开采未恢复，但铝土矿绝对库存高位，供应整体宽松，氧化铝厂加价采购意愿低[4] 铝价方面 -本周国内铝加工龙头企业周度开工率环比增0.3%至62.3%，铝型材等板块开工有好转[4] -周度铝水比例连续三周回落，铝锭供应压力略增，但铝价高位回落使近一周国内铝锭和铝棒出库量环比分别增20%和13%，带动铝锭库存降至60万吨以下[4] -11月27日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存59.60万吨，较周一下跌1.7万吨，较上周四下跌2.5万吨[4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The成材is expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, and its price is likely to continue to decline in the short term due to the weak supply - demand situation and pessimistic market sentiment [4]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with attention paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown period from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production [3]. - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province, one has stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [4]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - The price of成材continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the weak supply - demand pattern, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little support for prices [4]. Aluminum - The alumina market has an oversupply situation, with a slowdown in the decline of spot prices but an unconfirmed bottom. Some high - cost enterprises in the Jin and Yu regions have cut production, with a weekly output decrease of 17,000 tons [4]. - The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and the total social inventory are high, and continuous inventory accumulation intensifies the supply - demand contradiction [4]. - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62%. The SMM expects the operating rate to show a differentiated trend in the short term [4]. - On November 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from Monday and the same as last Thursday [4]. - There are mixed macro - sentiments. The market still expects a tightening of overseas supply due to potential production cuts in Iceland and Mozambique. However, with the arrival of the domestic off - season, the downstream is weak, and the inventory trend is volatile [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [2][4]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to undergo short - term high - level adjustments, considering the increasing inventory pressure and the complex macro - situation [2][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production [3]. - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province: one has stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [4]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center has been moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [4]. Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the number of initial jobless claims in the US in mid - October reached a two - month high. The market is waiting for the Fed's October 28 - 29 meeting minutes and the US Department of Labor's September employment report [3]. - In October 2025, China imported 13.77 million tons of bauxite, a 13.29% decrease from the previous period but a 12.5% increase year - on - year [4]. - The alumina market has a continuous oversupply situation. Although the decline of spot prices has slowed down, it has not stopped. Industry profits are shrinking, forcing some high - cost enterprises in Shanxi and Henan to reduce production, with a weekly output decrease of 17,000 tons. However, the alumina inventory at electrolytic aluminum plants and in the social sector is still accumulating, reaching 4.793 million tons [4]. - Last week, the SMM weekly aluminum - water ratio was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. Some sectors are transitioning from the peak to the off - season, and the high aluminum price has pressured downstream processing fees, leading some processing enterprises to cut production and some aluminum - water suppliers to increase ingot casting [4]. - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62%. The SMM predicts that the operating rate of the aluminum downstream processing industry will show a differentiated trend in the short term, with power grid orders supporting a slight increase in aluminum cables, while aluminum plates, strips, and foils are likely to decline due to environmental protection and the off - season [4]. - On November 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 646,000 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday [4]. - The market still anticipates a tightening of overseas aluminum supply due to the reported production cuts in Iceland and Mozambique. However, with the arrival of the domestic off - season and weakening downstream demand, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to have short - term回调 space [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving downward and showing a weak trend [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with the macro support being strong and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continuing, but the downstream is weakening and the pressure of inventory accumulation is increasing in the short - term [1][3] Summary by Relevant Content Finished Products - The short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production and conduct maintenance from mid - to late January during the Spring Festival, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period [1] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the remaining steel mills will stop production and have holidays around mid - January, with an estimated daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown period [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [2] - The finished products continued to fluctuate downward yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, resulting in a continuous downward shift of the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] - The later focus includes macro - policies and downstream demand [2] Aluminum - Domestically, the output of bauxite has decreased. Although the mine enterprises in Shanxi and Henan that were shut down due to environmental protection policies and the rainy season previously are now eligible for resumption, they still need government approval. Some compliant mines are expected to resume production on a small scale before the end of the year. With sufficient imported supplies, some mining enterprises have increased the proportion of imported high - temperature ore to maintain output, and the price of domestic bauxite is expected to remain stable in the short term [2] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 61.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous week. The operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 2 percentage points, and the operating rate of the aluminum profile industry dropped to 52.6%. The operating rates of aluminum strip and aluminum foil leading enterprises also decreased slightly. The overall operating rate is expected to continue to shrink [2] - On November 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from Monday and 1,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - Overseas, affected by high import tariffs and global supply shortages, the premium of the US spot market aluminum price has reached a record high [2] - The aluminum price is expected to run strongly in the short term, with strong macro - support and a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continuing. However, with the arrival of the off - season, the downstream is weakening and the pressure of inventory accumulation is increasing. Later, attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and the high - level pressure [3] - The later focus includes changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3]

Market Overview - The market is overshadowed by trade tensions and concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, leading to mixed performance in U.S. stock futures and declines in European and Asian markets [1][2] - The S&P 500 futures rose nearly 0.1%, while the Dow futures increased by 0.04%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures saw a slight decline of 0.01% [2][7] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold falling to below $4070 per ounce, marking a substantial decline of 6.3%, the largest intraday drop in over a decade [1][3][7] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to technical selling, as the market had been in an overbought condition since early September, despite a nearly 60% increase in gold prices year-to-date [3][4] Corporate Earnings - Investor sentiment is being influenced by improved corporate earnings reports, although uncertainties regarding trade prospects and the government shutdown remain [2] - Tesla is set to report its earnings, which will be closely watched as it marks the beginning of earnings reports from major tech companies [2] European Market - European stock indices opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down by 0.27%, while the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.44% [7] - The market is reacting to mixed signals from corporate earnings and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [4][7] Cryptocurrency Market - Cryptocurrencies are experiencing declines, with Bitcoin down nearly 0.4% and Ethereum down approximately 0.9% [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner [2]. - The view on aluminum ingots is that the price is expected to run at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mine - end news [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will stop production and conduct maintenance from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total building steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown, and the resumption time is expected to be from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month [1]. - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, and the daily impact on output during the shutdown is about 16,200 tons [2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - Finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. Winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little support for prices [2]. Aluminum Ingots - In September, the import volume of bauxite was 15.88 million tons, a 13.2% decrease from the previous period and a 37.5% increase year - on - year. The delivery volume from Guinea decreased by 14.9% to 10.49 million tons in September due to the impact of the rainy season on mining and shipping in July and August [2]. - Last week, the average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease compared with the same period last year. The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises was stable at 68%, but due to the off - season expectation and Trump's tariff, the procurement was cautious, and the operating rate is expected to decline gradually. The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry was 64%, and it may continue to be weak and stable in the short term. The operating rate of the aluminum profile industry decreased slightly to 53.5%, and it is expected to be weak and stable in the short term [2]. - On October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [2]. Market Outlook - The finished products are expected to operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [2]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to run at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [3].