Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the context of strong demand growth, insufficient supply release, and a long - term bullish trend in gold, geopolitical crises, continuous central bank gold purchases, a loose monetary environment, and the weakening of the US dollar's credit support the long - term strength of gold prices. The report maintains that gold is expected to reach a high of $3,800 - $4,000 per ounce this year, corresponding to a RMB price of 880 - 930 yuan per gram. For silver, it is expected to break through 10,000 yuan per kilogram this year, with the US silver above $42 per ounce. Investors can buy long positions in gold and silver on dips [3][26]. Summary by Relevant Aspects Silver Market Demand - Silver is the core material for photovoltaic cell conductive paste, with about 80 tons of silver consumed per 1GW of photovoltaic installed capacity. In 2024, global new photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded 600GW, and the demand for silver paste increased by over 25% year - on - year. In 2025, global photovoltaic installed capacity continued to grow steadily, leading to a rapid increase in the industrial demand for silver. It is predicted that global photovoltaic installed capacity will increase from 390GW in 2023 to 1000GW in 2030. In 2024, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 277.57GW, maintaining its global leading position and strongly supporting domestic silver demand. Additionally, the semiconductor industry, servers, and high - performance chips also show a surging demand for silver conduction [5]. Supply - 70% of global silver is a by - product of copper, lead, and zinc mines. Affected by the low prices of base metals, global silver production has declined in recent years. In 2024, global silver production was 25,000 tons, a 2% year - on - year decline. The contraction in supply has led to a 45% decline in the London Bullion Market Association's silver inventory over the past three years to 26,000 tons, only enough to cover 5 months of industrial demand [8]. Price Influence - Silver has both industrial and precious metal attributes and is affected by gold prices. The current domestic "silver/gold" ratio is around 11.2, which is in the undervalued area [11]. Geopolitical Factors - On June 1, 2025, the Russia - Ukraine conflict reached a historic turning point. Ukraine launched a special military operation, and Russia urgently initiated the deployment procedure of 300,000 - ton strategic nuclear weapons, casting a shadow of nuclear deterrence over Eurasia. In addition, the situations in India - Pakistan and the Middle East remain unstable, which drives up the prices of precious metals [14]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in April 2025, which was the sixth consecutive month of gold purchases since November 2024. Since November 2022, the central bank has restarted gold purchases, buying 62.21 tons in 2022, 224.88 tons in 2023, 44.17 tons in 2024, and 14.9 tons in the first four months of 2025. As of the end of April, the central bank held 2,295 tons of gold, indicating the substitution demand for US dollar assets and the official recognition of the long - term value of gold [15]. Monetary Policy - On May 15, 2025, the People's Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, injecting about 1 trillion yuan of liquidity into the market. This was the second reserve requirement ratio cut since September 2024. Since 2021, China has been in a cycle of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the interest rate level has been declining. In addition, the monetary policies of major economies such as Europe and the United States are also becoming more accommodative. The Federal Reserve entered an interest rate cut cycle in December 2023, and there is still an expectation of several interest rate cuts this year. Europe is also in a long - term interest rate cut cycle. The global loose monetary environment remains unchanged, and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by major economies will further push up the price of gold [18][20]. US Dollar and Gold - The US federal government debt reached $37 trillion in May 2025, up from $36 trillion in November 2024, with the debt scale expanding at an accelerating pace. The Federal Reserve's continuous bond purchases have led to currency over - issuance, weakening the US dollar's purchasing power in the long run. When the US dollar's credit is damaged, gold, as a non - credit currency, is often favored. The US dollar is likely to enter a long - term depreciation channel, and gold will benefit from the currency substitution demand. Recently, the US dollar index has continued to decline, falling below 110 since January [22][23]. Gold Price Technical Analysis - Technically, the gold price is still supported by the support line. Every "pullback" is supported by the strong support line, and May was no exception. Now, gold has returned to the upward price trend [24].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - For building materials, the price is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][2]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Content Building Materials - **Production Impact**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect 741,000 tons of building steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown schedules, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [1][2]. - **Market Transaction Data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - **Price Trend**: Building materials continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center has been continuously shifting downward, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [2]. Aluminum Ingots - **Alumina Situation**: Last week, southern alumina enterprises had concentrated maintenance and production cuts, with the operating capacity decreasing by 2.9 million tons/year compared to the previous period. Alumina enterprises have been facing losses, and the spot price has continued to rebound due to tightened supply and strong price - holding intentions [2]. - **Bauxite Event**: The revocation of some mining rights in Guinea has affected the supply of bauxite. The specific impact needs to be evaluated, and it may provide short - term emotional support to the cost of alumina [2][3]. - **Inventory Status**: On May 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 585,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last Thursday and a decrease of 16,000 tons from last Monday. The subsequent inventory trend depends on the matching of downstream export order restocking demand and incoming goods [2].

Macro Environment - Recent global financial and geopolitical turmoil has highlighted the investment value of gold, with Moody's downgrading the US AAA credit rating and predicting a rise in the US debt-to-GDP ratio to 134% by 2035, leading to an increase in US bond yields and a crisis of confidence in the dollar [1] - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, particularly in the Middle East, where Israel has launched operations against Hamas, hitting over 670 targets, while negotiations for a ceasefire remain stalled; in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia has initiated large-scale drone strikes after unsuccessful talks, indicating a potential escalation of actions [1] - Investors are turning to gold and US bonds as a dual hedge against risks, with gold prices surging by $40 in early Asian trading on Monday [1] - Key upcoming economic data from the US, including unemployment claims and PMI, along with speeches from Federal Reserve officials, will be critical for market assessments of economic and policy directions [1] US Dollar Index - The US dollar index showed an upward trend last Friday, reaching a high of 101.234 and a low of 100.493, closing at 100.966 [2] - The market is currently observing key support levels between 100.20-40, with a focus on the potential for a bearish trend in the medium term as the weekly resistance is noted at 102.40 [2] Gold Market - Last Friday, gold prices experienced a decline, with a high of 3252.02 and a low of 3154.14, closing at 3201.06 [4] - The short-term outlook for gold appears bullish, with a focus on testing daily resistance levels and filling gaps [4] - The monthly analysis indicates a four-month upward trend with a recent correction, while the weekly support is at 3120, suggesting a continued bullish perspective unless the weekly support is broken [5] - Key resistance levels to watch are at 3275 and the gap at 3325, with a short-term support level at 3200 [5][7] Euro and Other Currencies - The Euro/USD pair showed a downward trend last Friday, with a low of 1.1130 and a high of 1.1219, closing at 1.1160 [7] - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with key levels to watch at 1.1260 for resistance and 1.1130 for support, indicating potential trading strategies based on breakouts [8][10]