2026年03月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：跟随回调，月差反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：跟随回调，月差反套 | 2 | | MEG：单边跟随成本端回调，月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强20260311 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：跟随能源价格波动，高位宽幅震荡 | 6 | | LLDPE：地缘不确定性较高，裂解供应收缩延续 | 8 | | PP：多种原料供应受限，上游开工收缩 | 8 | | 烧碱：回归基本面，市场短期承压 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260311 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：高位回落 | 14 | | 尿素：高位回落 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：偏强运行 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 19 | | LPG：地缘不确定性较高 | 20 | | 丙烯：成本端地缘扰动，供应存减量预期 | 20 | | PVC：回归基本面，市场短期承压 | 23 | | 燃料油：夜盘大幅回撤，短期上行或暂时放缓 | 24 | | 低硫燃料油：同步下跌，外盘现货高低硫价差继续冲高 | 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the influence of Middle - East geopolitical factors, the Asia - Pacific stock markets declined further yesterday, with the South Korean Composite Index circuit - breaking and the Nikkei 225 Index falling over 3%. The stock index was weak due to market sentiment and liquidity. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on the emotional resonance of the Asia - Pacific stock markets, especially South Korea's rescue strategies, and the evolution of the Middle - East conflict. If the geopolitical situation eases, the short - term adjustment of the stock index will bring a good long - position layout opportunity. Referring to the incident in 2025, the market sentiment recovered quickly after a brief shock adjustment, and the stock index broke upward [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate and Bond Market - DROO1 closed at 1.27 with a 0.16bp increase; DR007 closed at 1.42 with a 3.26bp decrease; GC001 closed at 1.22 with a 4.50bp increase; GC007 closed at 1.47 with a 1.00bp decrease; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.56 with a 0.45bp decrease; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.29 with a 1.23bp decrease; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.53 with a 1.02bp decrease; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.78 with a 0.18bp decrease; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.06 with a 1.00bp increase [4] - The central bank conducted a 405 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 4095 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal of funds on the day was 3690 billion yuan [4] - This week (March 1st - 6th), 15250 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. Additionally, 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on March 6th [5] 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4603 with a 1.14% decrease; the SSE 50 closed at 2974 with a 1.33% decrease; the CSI 500 closed at 8249 with a 0.39% decrease; the CSI 1000 closed at 8095 with a 0.59% decrease. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 23882 billion yuan, a decrease of 7698 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed down. Grid equipment, national defense and military industry, power equipment, and small metal sectors led the gains, while shipping ports, precious metals, insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, liquor, and logistics sectors led the losses [6] - The trading volume of IF decreased by 16.0% to 139926, and the open interest increased by 0.3% to 288752; the trading volume of IH decreased by 10.0% to 71090, and the open interest increased by 0.5% to 115104; the trading volume of IC decreased by 22.3% to 203068, and the open interest decreased by 6.7% to 309828; the trading volume of IM decreased by 16.4% to 245473, and the open interest decreased by 1.8% to 394667 [6] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 5.76%, 4.01%, 4.64%, and 5.10% respectively; IH were 1.54%, 1.12%, 1.26%, and 2.90% respectively; IC were 8.17%, 5.71%, 7.16%, and 7.32% respectively; IM were 8.54%, 7.80%, 9.25%, and 9.31% respectively [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is experiencing a passive impact from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, rather than internal factors driving the decline [1] - Compared to neighboring markets like Japan and South Korea, the A-share market's volatility is relatively lower, showing resilience with a stabilization trend after a low opening on Wednesday [1] - Technical analysis indicates that the A-share market is undergoing a volume contraction adjustment, with signs of reduced selling pressure, suggesting a potential for stabilization and recovery [1] Group 2 - The defense and military industry sector is leading gains, driven primarily by geopolitical factors, indicating a likelihood of short-term volatility [1] - Transportation and oil & petrochemical sectors experienced significant fluctuations, with initial gains followed by profit-taking, highlighting the rapid rotation of short-term market hotspots [1] - The outlook for the market suggests a potential for stabilization and slight recovery, contingent on geopolitical developments and reactions in global capital markets [2]

2026年03月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：地缘影响下，成本推涨 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：成本支撑偏强 | 2 | | MEG：单边趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强20260303 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：偏强运行 | 7 | | LLDPE：原油风险加剧，上游供应或有收缩 | 9 | | PP：C3原料持续偏强，PDH装置减量延续 | 9 | | 烧碱：宽幅震荡 | 11 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260303 | 12 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 14 | | 甲醇：偏强运行 | 15 | | 尿素：短期步入震荡格局 | 17 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 19 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 | 21 | | 丙烯：成本端地缘扰动，基本面维持偏紧 | 21 | | PVC：区间震荡 | 24 | | 燃料油：强势延续，价格中枢来到近年高点 | 25 | | 低硫燃料油：大幅上涨，外盘现货高低硫价差持续收缩 | 25 | | 集运指数（欧线）：继续关注短线上行风险 | 26 | ...

| | | | | | | 第一部分 前言概要 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | | 第二部分 基本面情况 | 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | | 二、美国市场基本面 | 4 | | | 三、国际 LNG | 市场基本面情况 | 6 | | 四、天气预测 | 9 | | | 五、后市展望 | 11 | | | | 免责声明 | 12 | 【市场展望】 国际 LNG：当前欧洲库存水平仍旧偏低，2 月实际气温相对之前预测更为温和 且冬季逐渐过去，需求端风险得到缓和。供应方面，美国寒潮结束后出口恢复，以 及欧美之间关系缓和，但美国和伊朗之间的冲突仍远未结束。从基本面的角度来看， 在供应放量且需求回落的预期下，随着冬季的逐步结束，基本面将会逐步转向宽松。 短期来看美国和伊朗的冲突将是主导价格的主要因素。 美国 HH：随着寒潮结束，供应回归甚至创下新高，需求回落至往年平均水平， 出口的进一步增长受限于产能，因此供需结构迅速转向宽松。3 月的美国气温预期 整体较为平和，而产量预计将持续 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices rebounded and maintained a bullish outlook despite strong U.S. non-farm payroll data, supported by central bank buying and geopolitical factors [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold opened at $5027.38 per ounce, experienced fluctuations, and reached a daily high of $5119.05 before retreating [3] - The lowest point during the day was $4964.04, with a final closing price of $5084.54, reflecting a daily volatility of $155.01 and a gain of $57.16, or 1.14% [3] Group 2: Future Outlook - On February 12, gold prices initially weakened as the market digested the strong U.S. employment report, but remained above bullish support levels [3] - The dollar index showed no significant strength, indicating a potential for further weakening, which could support gold prices [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market is oscillating, and the short - term trend is unclear. The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.5% at 2794 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.22% at 3248 yuan/ton [1] - The recent fluctuations in the energy sector are greatly affected by the Iran situation, which is still unclear. A new round of negotiations may be held this week, and short - term caution is required [2] - From the perspective of the fundamentals of the varieties themselves, the market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has been running strongly recently. The downstream marine fuel demand is good, the spot in the Asia - Pacific region is marginally tightening, the spot premium and the monthly spread are relatively strong, and the registered warehouse receipts of FU futures have decreased. There is an expected increase in the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil, but the increase in Russian shipments this month may form resistance. Excluding the influence of geopolitical factors, the high - sulfur fuel oil market does not have the power to continue to strengthen [2] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the current fundamental contradiction is not obvious. There is an increase in supply in some areas such as Kuwait, but the overall pressure is relatively limited, and it mainly fluctuates with the crude oil end in the short term [2][3] Group 3: Chart Information - The report provides multiple charts including Singapore high - sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contract, etc., with different units such as US dollars/ton and yuan/ton [4]

Oil Market - Oil prices continued to rise, with WTI March contract closing at $64.36 per barrel, up $0.81, a 1.27% increase [2][15] - Brent April contract closed at $69.04 per barrel, up $0.99, a 1.45% increase [2][15] - OPEC's January oil production decreased to 28.34 million barrels per day, down 60,000 barrels from December, with Nigeria showing the largest decline [2][15] - The EU proposed to expand sanctions against Russia to include ports in Georgia and Indonesia, marking the first time sanctions target third-country ports [2][15] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2605 fell by 0.5% to 2794 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2604 dropped by 1.22% to 3248 yuan per ton [16][17] - Despite strong demand for marine fuel before the Spring Festival, supply remains ample, and the influx of arbitrage cargoes from Western markets is expected to increase in February [16][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2603 decreased by 0.98% to 3334 yuan per ton, with stable supply and increased port inventory [17] - Demand is weakening as the market approaches the Spring Festival, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [17] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 rose by 165 yuan per ton to 16245 yuan per ton, with NR main contract up by 100 yuan per ton to 13150 yuan per ton [18] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile trend due to weak supply-demand fundamentals [18] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5192 yuan per ton, up 0.5%, while EG2605 closed at 3739 yuan per ton, down 0.11% [19] - PX futures closed at 7290 yuan per ton, up 0.39%, with the market facing pressure from weak demand and inventory accumulation [19] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2205 yuan per ton, with CFR China prices between $260-$264 per ton [20] - Supply remains stable, but demand is expected to decline as the market approaches the Spring Festival [20] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polyolefins in East China ranged from 6530 to 6750 yuan per ton, with production margins showing negative values for various production methods [21][22] - The market is expected to face upward pressure as downstream enterprises complete inventory replenishment [22] PVC - PVC prices remained stable in East China, with electric stone method prices between 4720-4820 yuan per ton [23] - Demand is slowing down as construction activities decrease ahead of the Spring Festival [23] Urea - Urea futures closed at 1788 yuan per ton, up 0.68%, with the market showing signs of stabilization [24] - Supply levels are recovering, but demand remains mixed, with some companies experiencing strong orders while others may need to lower prices [24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures closed at 1181 yuan per ton, down 1.01%, with market activity declining as the Spring Festival approaches [25] - The industry operating rate was at 86%, indicating a slight increase, but demand remains weak [25] Glass - Glass futures closed at 1078 yuan per ton, up 0.56%, with supply levels stable but demand showing seasonal weakness [26][27] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations due to macroeconomic policies and production adjustments [27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the futures market for asphalt is experiencing wide fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 3334, reflecting a decrease of 0.98% from the previous day [1][28] - The supply side shows that domestic refinery production was 436,000 tons for the week ending February 6, down 4% week-on-week [2][28] - Demand from large sample enterprises was 333,800 tons, a decrease of 2% compared to the previous week [2][28] Group 2 - The total inventory, including social and factory stocks, remained stable at 760,000 tons, showing no change week-on-week [2][28] - The production gross profit, excluding consumption tax deductions, was approximately -33 yuan per ton, a decline from a profit of nearly 34 yuan per ton the previous week [2][28] - The short-term outlook suggests that the market is relatively stable as the domestic Spring Festival approaches, with prices being influenced by geopolitical changes and market risk preferences [3][28] Group 3 - Geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, as well as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are expected to impact the cost side and create significant volatility in the asphalt market [3][28] - The Brent crude oil price was reported at 67.21 USD per barrel, down 1.3% from the previous day [30] - The asphalt closing price has seen a 1.5% decline over the last day and a 4.1% decline over the past week [30]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.82%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.68% [1] - Gold stocks experienced a collective rebound, with Zijin Mining International and Chifeng Jilong Gold both rising over 4%, and Shandong Gold increasing by more than 3% [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that despite recent market volatility, effective measures to cool down the A-share market, a stronger USD against RMB, and initial regulatory support for Hong Kong will provide positive liquidity support for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 2 - Guoyuan International indicates that the current environment may allow Hong Kong stocks to continue outperforming U.S. stocks, driven by fiscal cliff and geopolitical factors, which favor non-U.S. assets [2] - The overall valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains low and has not fully reflected the recovery of the domestic economy, with signs of recovery in corporate credit demand potentially becoming a new investment theme [2] - CITIC Securities suggests that the earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks have been significantly adjusted, and the spring market trend since late December 2025 may continue, with large-cap stocks expected to outperform ahead of the Lunar New Year [2]