Core Viewpoint - The price of palladium is expected to be influenced by various factors including supply-demand dynamics, macroeconomic conditions, and industry trends as the market anticipates its trajectory into 2025 [1][10]. Supply and Demand Status - Palladium is primarily consumed in the automotive industry for catalytic converters, with demand increasing due to stricter emission standards globally, particularly in Europe, North America, and China [1]. - The supply of palladium is concentrated in Russia and South Africa, facing challenges such as limited reserves, mining difficulties, and geopolitical factors affecting production and exports [3][9]. Price Trends - The palladium market has experienced significant price fluctuations, reaching a peak of $3,002 per ounce in February 2022 due to supply shortages and strong demand, but subsequently declining to $953.50 per ounce by January 15, 2025 [4]. Automotive Industry Transformation - The automotive sector is undergoing a transformation with declining demand for traditional gasoline vehicles and a rise in new energy vehicles (NEVs), impacting palladium usage in catalytic converters [6]. - Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, which require palladium-based catalysts, are expected to drive future demand, with projections of 100,000 units sold globally by 2025 [6]. Macroeconomic Factors - Economic growth and inflation expectations significantly influence palladium prices, with strong economic conditions boosting demand while recessions can lead to decreased consumption [7][8]. - Inflation can lead investors to favor palladium as a hedge, potentially increasing its price [8]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Russia's palladium production and export policies, pose risks to supply stability, which can lead to price volatility [9]. Price Forecasts for 2025 - Market predictions for palladium prices in 2025 vary, with some analysts expecting an average price around $1,075 to $1,080 per ounce, while others foresee a decline to approximately $930 per ounce due to weakening automotive demand [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic methanol market is expected to undergo differential adjustments in the short - term, and the impact of the volatile Middle East situation on commodity futures needs attention. The market is considered neutral. The MA2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 2360 - 2450 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In the port area, methanol prices in East and South China ports remained firm last week with limited increases. The ship - age restriction policy, Sino - US trade negotiations, global trade expectations, and geopolitical factors pushed up prices. In the inland area, CTO factories in the northwest purchased methanol, and speculative demand increased due to low prices, accelerating inventory clearance. However, traditional downstream demand entered the off - season, and high domestic methanol production limited the positive impact of supply - demand fundamentals [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 283, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [5]. - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 53.41 tons, an increase of 8.46 tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in coastal areas increased by 4.61 tons to 29.34 tons, which is a bullish signal [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average, which is a bullish signal [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is a bearish signal [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya are shut down. Methanol production in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month. CTO factories in the northwest are purchasing methanol [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Previously shut - down plants such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production. A large number of ships are expected to arrive at ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has declined significantly. Coal - to - methanol production has a certain profit margin and is actively selling. Some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to slow sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: In the spot market, prices of various regions have changed. For example, the price of methanol in Jiangsu increased by 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, while in Hebei it decreased by 10 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract increased by 26 yuan/ton to 2417 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis increased by 89 yuan/ton to 348 yuan/ton, and the import spread decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average operating rate of the whole country decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports increased by 5.68 tons to 36.60 tons, and in South China ports it increased by 2.78 tons to 16.81 tons [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have reduced production. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Baihai Zhonghao, and other plants are under maintenance, and some plants such as Shanxi Shiyang have reduced their production loads [56]. - **Foreign Plants**: In Iran, some plants such as ZPC and Kimiaya are reported to have resumed production, but it needs verification. Some plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are operating normally [57]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are operating normally, while some are under maintenance or have reduced production. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants are under maintenance, and Qinghai Kangjiu's plant has been shut down since November 12, 2024 [58].

Supply and Demand - As of June 19, the overall operating rate of MEG is 70.33%, an increase of 4.08%, while the coal-based MEG operating rate is 70.16%, up by 1.73% [2] - As of June 23, the estimated port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area is approximately 622,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons compared to the previous period [2] - Demand remains consistent with PTA demand [2] Market Outlook - Geopolitical factors have temporarily halted Iranian ethylene glycol facilities, which has supported a strong performance in ethylene glycol; however, Iranian inventory is still being shipped normally, and the actual arrival volume in July is expected to have little impact [3] - Hengli Petrochemical's ethylene glycol facilities are operating at full capacity, and two 700,000-ton facilities in Saudi Arabia are expected to restart soon, with local facility load increasing and planned shipping volume rising compared to the previous period [3] - In the short term, with the recovery of domestic facilities and weak demand expectations, supply and demand are unlikely to provide upward momentum for ethylene glycol, and with geopolitical factors cooling and oil prices significantly dropping, a price correction for ethylene glycol is anticipated; the short-term focus for EG09 is on the resistance level of 4,500 [3] Spot Market - On June 23, ethylene glycol prices opened high and then retreated, with market discussions remaining acceptable; overnight crude oil prices rose, leading to an early high opening for ethylene glycol, with spot transactions reaching around 4,640-4,650 yuan/ton [1] - Following news of Iranian facility restart intentions, ethylene glycol prices continued to decline; in the afternoon, the market saw narrow fluctuations with weak trading [1] - In the international market, ethylene glycol prices also retreated from recent highs, with early discussions around 538-540 USD/ton, later falling to 531-533 USD/ton, and afternoon discussions around 533-535 USD/ton, with some trades executed at 531 USD/ton [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The opening price of the main contract BR2507 of synthetic rubber today was 11,750 yuan/ton, with the highest price during the session at 11,810 yuan/ton, the lowest at 11,665 yuan/ton, and the closing price at 11,770 yuan/ton. The daily trading volume was 81,100 lots, and the open interest was 15,100 lots [3] Group 2: Key Influencing Factors Analysis - The aftermath of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues, but the situation has not further escalated, and its driving effect on the market has weakened [3] - Due to the replenishment of raw material butadiene, it failed to significantly boost the upward movement, and the cost side did not strongly support synthetic rubber [4]

Core Viewpoint - The escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran could lead to significant volatility in global financial markets, particularly affecting the gold market and international exchange rates, with next week's trends being highly uncertain [1] Group 1: Impact on Gold Market - Geopolitical conflicts are major drivers of gold price fluctuations, with gold being regarded as the "king of safe-haven assets" [3] - Historical instances, such as the post-9/11 period and the U.S.-Iran conflict in early 2020, show that gold prices can surge significantly during crises, with increases exceeding 20% in some cases [3] - If the U.S. bombs Iran, a strong upward trend in gold prices is likely due to heightened war risks and increased demand for gold as a safe haven [3] - War typically raises inflation expectations, which could further enhance gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation, leading to increased investment in gold [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Gold prices are also influenced by the U.S. dollar exchange rate, global economic growth expectations, and central bank monetary policies [4] - A strong dollar usually suppresses gold prices, while a weak dollar supports them; however, military actions may initially boost the dollar due to safe-haven flows, creating short-term pressure on gold [4] - Long-term economic uncertainty and inflation pressures from military actions could weaken the dollar's attractiveness, leading to a potential return of funds to the gold market [4] Group 3: Impact on International Exchange Rates - The U.S. bombing of Iran is expected to create significant turbulence in the foreign exchange market, with the dollar likely experiencing a temporary surge due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [5] - Historical trends, such as during the Gulf War, indicate that the dollar index may rise during crises, but prolonged military spending and economic uncertainty could negatively impact the dollar's long-term stability [5] - The euro may face pressure due to potential disruptions in trade with the Middle East, while the yen could attract safe-haven flows but may be limited by rising import costs from increased oil prices [6] - Emerging market currencies are likely to face greater pressure, with potential capital outflows leading to currency depreciation and stock market declines [6]

Core Insights - Geopolitical factors are dominating market trends, with oil showing stronger bullish momentum compared to gold [1] - Investment banks have raised the probability of extreme scenarios, suggesting that oil prices may surge again [1] - Central banks have purchased 68 tons of gold in the market, providing a support level for gold prices [1] Oil Market - The current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are contributing to increased volatility in oil prices [1] - Analysts are predicting a potential significant rise in oil prices, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [1] Gold Market - Gold has experienced a pullback but is stabilizing near support levels due to central bank purchases [1] - The market is closely watching the $1300 level as a critical battleground for gold prices [1] Platinum Market - Platinum prices are experiencing a resurgence, although institutions are warning about the risk of capital withdrawal [1] - The market dynamics for platinum are shifting, with potential implications for investment strategies [1]

原油周报：伊以冲突推动国际油价大幅上涨 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别69.5/67.9美元/桶，较上周分别+4.1/+4.5美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.3/4.3/4.0/0.2亿桶，环比-341/- 364/+24/-40万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1343万桶/天，环比+2万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周439台，环比-3台。美国活跃压 裂车队本周182部，环比-4部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油加工量为1723万桶/天，环比+23万桶/天；美国炼厂原油开工率为94.3%，环比+0.9pct。 ◼ 5）原油进出口量：美国原油进口量、出口量、净进口量为618/329/289万桶/天，环比-17/-62/+45万桶/天。 ◼ 【美国成品油】 ◼ 1）成品油价格和价差：美国汽油、柴油、航煤周均价分别90/92/89美元/桶，环比+3.0/ ...

Core Insights - The report by Yihe Consulting provides an in-depth analysis of the ammonium sulfate market, focusing on global and Chinese markets, and aims to meet diverse client needs through detailed market insights [2][4]. Market Participants - The ammonium sulfate market includes a wide range of participants, from major fertilizer producers to local SMEs, with industry giants leveraging advanced production technologies and extensive sales networks to maintain market share [6]. - The report details the financial status, production capacity, and market positioning of key players, offering a comprehensive view of the competitive landscape [6]. Industry Structure - The ammonium sulfate supply chain is complex, involving upstream production of ammonia and sulfuric acid, and downstream applications in agriculture and industry [6]. - Price fluctuations in ammonia directly impact production costs of ammonium sulfate, while seasonal demand spikes in agriculture influence market dynamics [6]. Market Trends and Data - Historical data and future forecasts indicate stable growth in the ammonium sulfate market, driven by increasing global demand for sustainable agriculture and efficient fertilizers [7]. - The report compares growth potential across different regions and analyzes the impact of national policies on market development, aiding companies in identifying optimal market entry strategies [7]. Constraints and Challenges - The report identifies several constraints affecting market growth, including rising costs, stringent environmental regulations, and intensifying market competition [7]. - Fluctuations in raw material prices and the need for technological innovation are highlighted as critical factors for companies to manage production costs effectively [7]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical issues significantly influence the ammonium sulfate market, affecting raw material supply chains and introducing potential tariffs and trade barriers [8]. - The report emphasizes the need for companies to monitor international political developments to adapt their market strategies accordingly [8]. Regional Analysis - The report provides a detailed analysis of the ammonium sulfate market across major regions, including North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America, with Asia-Pacific showing the fastest growth due to agricultural modernization and sustained fertilizer demand [8]. - Regional consumption characteristics, industry policies, and geographical differences are explored to help stakeholders understand market potential and challenges [8]. China Market Insights - The report specifically analyzes China's policy environment, including government support for the fertilizer industry and environmental regulations, which significantly impact market behavior [9]. - As the largest consumer of ammonium sulfate globally, changes in China's policies will directly affect the global supply-demand landscape [9].

Group 1 - The US non-farm payrolls for May exceeded expectations, leading to a stronger dollar and a decline in gold prices [1] - Chinese central bank's gold reserves increased to 73.83 million ounces by the end of May, marking the seventh consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] - The World Gold Council (WGC) maintains a bullish outlook on gold, citing potential price increases due to inflation eroding real yields and economic slowdown impacting equities and cyclical commodities [1] Group 2 - Despite a slowdown in the US economy, non-farm employment and unemployment rates remain stable, indicating that a recession has not yet occurred [2] - The pressure on the dollar is easing, but geopolitical factors and a weak dollar may still lead to a challenging environment for gold prices [2] - The recent slight pullback in gold prices is influenced by tariff uncertainties, but the overall price trend is expected to rise [1][2]

·光大期货：市场对黄金的分歧仍然存在 ·FXStreet：美元走强给黄金施加压力但市场仍关注贸易局势进展 ·Walsh Trading：美股反弹背景下在每盎司3400美元做多黄金不具有吸引力 ·铜冠金源期货表示，虽然美国与其他经济体的关税谈判还存在较大的不确定性，但当前中美经贸关税 有显著缓和，这使得之前助推金价不断创新高的核心因素避险需求减弱，金价步入调整，目前金价依然 处于阶段性调整之中。但黄金的避险属性和财富保值得到进一步强化，将限制金银价格回调的空间。预 计金价将继续维持高位震荡走势。 ·海通期货：弱势美元以及地缘政治因素仍将导致黄金易涨难跌 ·铜冠金源期货：预计金价将继续维持高位震荡走势 【机构分析】 ·海通期货表示，宏观数据方面，美国制造业和服务业PMI均陷入收缩区间，而非农就业和失业率持 稳，表明美国经济虽然正在减速，但暂时并未走向衰退。因此，虽然美元贬值压力难以完全消退，但下 行的速度已明显放缓。此外，6月5日，中美两国元首通话，双边关系边际缓和趋势延续，黄金形成一定 的利空。不过，即便全球贸易战尾部风险弱化，弱势美元以及地缘政治因素仍将导致黄金易涨难跌。 ·Walsh Trading商业对冲 ...