投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-26 原油震荡等待局势明朗，化⼯端本⾝⽭ 盾较⼩横盘整理 随着美伊谈判的临近，原油和金融市场严阵以待，权衡谈判达成的可 能性。美伊下一轮谈判定于周四在日内瓦举行，为形成威慑力，美国已下 令在中东展开2003年第二次海湾战争以来规模最大的军事集结，包括部署 两艘航空母舰。另一个对原油市场至关重要的事件是于周末举行的OPEC+ 会议，该组织在2026年一季度暂停了增产计划，二季度是否恢复增产、增 产幅度如何，都会对原油市场带来影响。与此同时，斯洛伐克表示，从俄 罗斯运送原油经过乌克兰的友谊管道仍处于关停状态。（以上信息来自彭 博终端） 板块逻辑： 原油等待美伊谈判进展，化工进入震荡格局。从化工品各个链条基本 面看，聚酯链条供需较为健康，聚烯烃依旧有较大的供应压力，尤其是P E。纯苯-苯乙烯、氯碱则以震荡为主。聚酯原料普遍因为3-5月份的春季 检修而去库，因为2025年下半年较长时间的亏损，PTA产业链没有因为微 利就加大开工。烯烃的弱势主要在于全球都维持较高产能增速，增速高于 过去五年的均值，当前PE的周产量同比攀升到 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 26 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1： | 行情回顾(美元/桶) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

能源化工日报 2026-02-26 2026/02/26 原油 【行情资讯】 INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.60 元/桶，跌幅 0.33%，报 488.30 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 10.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.34%，报 2943.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 41.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.18%，报 3436.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据（PLATT 口径）出炉，汽油库存累库 1.91 百万桶至 9.89 百万桶， 环比累库 23.99%；柴油库存去库 0.30 百万桶至 3.03 百万桶，环比去库 9.12%；燃料油库存去 库 0.76 百万桶至 7.63 百万桶，环比去库 9.07%；总成品油累库 0.85 百万桶至 20.55 百万桶， 环比累库 4.30%。 【策略观点】 当前油价已经出现一定涨幅，并已经计价较高的地缘溢价。我们认为短期内，伊朗的断供缺口 仍存，但考虑到我们此前地缘系列专题指出委内瑞拉增产即将超预期的预判以及 OPEC 后续的 增产恢复预期，当前油价应予以逢高止盈，并以中期布局为主要操作思路。 甲醇 马桂炎（联系人） 聚酯分析师 从业资格号：F031 ...

原油成品油早报 ·消息人士和航运数据显示，委内瑞拉正准备自3月起扩大原油出口规模。 ·Crea：1月份印度Jamnagar炼厂俄罗斯原油进口量下降 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/25 | | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2026/02/10 | 63.96 | 68.80 | 67.38 | 1.87 | 0.69 | -4.84 | 1.69 | 195.92 | 13.49 | 239.88 | 31.95 | | 2026/02/11 | 64.63 | 69.40 | 67.68 | - | 0.6 ...

能源化工日报 2026-02-25 | | 原油 | | --- | --- | | | 2026/02/25 原油 | | 能源化工组 | 【行情资讯】 | | | INE 主力原油期货收涨 28.70 元/桶，涨幅 6.18%，报 493.30 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 | | 张正华 | 燃料油收涨 79.00 元/吨，涨幅 2.76%，报 2942.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 192.00 元/吨，涨 | | 橡胶分析师 | 幅 5.84%，报 3478.00 元/吨。 | | 从业资格号：F270766 | | | 交易咨询号：Z0003000 | 【策略观点】 | |  0755-233753333 | 当前油价已经出现一定涨幅，并已经计价较高的地缘溢价。我们认为短期内，伊朗的断供缺口 | | zhangzh@wkqh.cn  | 仍存，但考虑到我们此前地缘系列专题指出委内瑞拉增产即将超预期的预判以及 OPEC 后续的 | | | 增产恢复预期，当前油价应予以中期布局为主要操作思路，但需等待地缘终点爆发以排除尾部 | | 徐绍祖 | 风险。 | | 聚烯烃分析师 | | | 从业资格号 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced widespread gains on February 24, with the main contract for silver rising over 12% and lithium carbonate increasing by over 10% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1704.50 points, up 56.21 points or 3.41% from the previous trading day [1] - The overall commodity index rose to 2349.89 points, an increase of 77.35 points or 3.40% [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals, particularly silver, showed strong performance post-Spring Festival, with silver surging by 12.84% and lithium carbonate recovering above 160,000 yuan per ton [2] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to increased safe-haven buying due to U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2] - Concerns about U.S. economic stagnation were heightened by a return of the core PCE year-on-year rate to 3% and a slowdown in GDP growth to 1.4% in Q4 [2] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate - The strong rise in lithium carbonate prices is supported by expectations of a tight supply-demand balance, despite concerns over a decline in downstream production [3] - Domestic lithium carbonate production is also expected to decrease, which offsets the negative impact of lower downstream production [3] - The overall sentiment remains bullish for lithium prices, although there are warnings about potential weakening fundamentals in Q2 [3] Group 4: Energy and Chemical Products - The energy and chemical sectors were active, driven by rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which pushed international oil prices to a six-month high [3] - SC crude oil rose by over 6%, while high-sulfur fuel oil increased by over 2% and 5% respectively [3] - The rubber sector also saw collective gains, with 20 rubber, butadiene rubber, and natural rubber all rising around 4% [3] Group 5: Declining Commodities - The main contract for polysilicon fell over 4%, primarily due to high inventory levels and price pressures from declining silicon wafer prices [4] - The supply of caustic soda also increased, leading to a decline of 3.37% in its main contract, as supply remained ample and demand was weak [5] - The operational rates for alumina production decreased, contributing to a lack of demand in the caustic soda market [5]

回顾：春节前最后一周，申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现一般，较上周上涨-0.82%。而中 信三级行业指数表现来看，工程服务在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅1.51%。 原油：原油涨。美原油库存下降，汽油库存下降 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格涨。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数不同品种涨跌不一，织机开工率跌 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 焦点：假期美伊局势不明朗，原油获得地缘溢价。PX、PTA供需今年边际好转预期。依据wind和隆众 资讯，PX（中国主港）-石脑油（日本）的价差经过调整后开始稳定在300美元/吨附近，价差节后可能 再度走强。 烯烃：样本PE现货价格跌，聚烯烃石化库存上涨 来源：中国能源网 标的： 中邮证券近日发布石化行业周报：PX、PTA供需今年边际好转预期。依据wind和隆众资讯，PX（中国 主港）-石脑油（日本）的价差经过调整后开始稳定在300美元/吨附近，价差节后可能再度走强。春节 前最后一周，申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现一般，较上周上涨-0.82%。而中信三级行业 指数表现来看，工程服务在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅1.51%。 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 ...

证券研究报告 石化行业周报：地缘反复原油获得溢价，聚酯 链关注节后pxn价差是否走强 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 1 1 发布时间：2026-02-23 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点：假期美伊局势不明朗，原油获得地缘溢价。PX、PTA供需今年边际好转预期。依据wind和隆众 资讯，PX（中国主港）-石脑油（日本）的价差经过调整后开始稳定在300美元/吨附近，价差节后可能 再度走强。 ◼ 回顾：春节前最后一周，申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现一般，较上周上涨-0.82%。而中 信三级行业指数表现来看，工程服务在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅1.51%。 ◼ 原油：原油涨。美原油库存下降，汽油库存下降 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格涨。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数不同品种涨跌不一，织机开工率跌 ◼ 烯烃：样本PE现货价格跌，聚烯烃石化库存上涨 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ➢ 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 ➢ 长丝：关注PTA反内卷进展和PX利润修复，若顺利则利好涤纶长丝。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧 ...

在分析近期价格波动的内在逻辑时，相关研究员认为，避险溢价的收缩是金价回调的重要诱因。尽管中 东地区仍有航母部署及军事演习，但由于美伊谈判在日内瓦达成了"指导原则"共识，此前紧绷的地缘溢 价迅速消退。这种情绪的转变使得黄金作为避险资产的吸引力在短期内让位于走强的美元资产。 除了地缘因素的稀释，市场正屏息关注美联储（Fed）即将释放的政策信号。相关分析认为，美联储 1 月会议纪要及周五公布的 PCE 物价指数将直接揭示 2026 年上半年降息的节奏。此外，由于新一任美联 储主席提名人选被市场视为非鸽派立场，这种政策偏好的转变加剧了金属市场的焦虑情绪。相关数据显 示，除了贵金属，期铜等工业金属持仓也出现了高净值客户离场的情况，反映出全行业对未来流动性紧 缩风险的防御性布局。 除了地缘因素的稀释，市场正屏息关注美联储（Fed）即将释放的政策信号。相关分析认为，美联储 1 月会议纪要及周五公布的 PCE 物价指数将直接揭示 2026 年上半年降息的节奏。此外，由于新一任美联 储主席提名人选被市场视为非鸽派立场，这种政策偏好的转变加剧了金属市场的焦虑情绪。相关数据显 示，除了贵金属，期铜等工业金属持仓也出现了高净值客户离 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent internal trading activities of executives at Gold.com have drawn significant attention from investors, particularly in the context of the rising precious metals market. The stock's impressive 104% return over the past year is seen as a reasonable profit-taking move rather than a cause for concern [1][5]. Group 1: Executive Trading Activities - Brian Aquilino, COO of Gold.com, sold 10,000 shares on February 11, 2026, cashing out $595,472. This sale occurred near the stock's peak price, which may raise market concerns [1][5]. - Aquilino exercised options to buy 10,000 shares at $39.69 each, totaling $396,900, which mitigates the negative impact of the stock sale [2][5]. Group 2: Financial Health and Dividend Stability - Gold.com has a strong financial foundation, evidenced by a perfect Piotroski score of 9, indicating high asset quality. The company has maintained a 40-year uninterrupted dividend record, positioning it as a safe-haven asset in volatile markets [2][5]. Group 3: Capital Structure and Market Sentiment - Gold.com is enhancing its capital structure through a $150 million private placement agreement with Tether's TPM, issuing 3,370,787 shares at $44.50 each, which is an 11.9% discount to the weighted average price [3][6]. - Analysts, including DA Davidson, have raised their price target for Gold.com from $45.00 to $53.00, reflecting a bullish sentiment towards the precious metals sector [3][6]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The overall precious metals industry remains robust, with companies like Barrick Gold exceeding market expectations and raising their price targets to $60.00. This positive trend is supported by strong gold and silver spot prices and widening retail and wholesale spreads [3][6]. - Despite potential short-term pressures from executive sell-offs or stock price corrections, the long-term investment value in precious metals and related companies remains significant due to inflation expectations and geopolitical premiums [3][6]. Group 5: Investor Considerations - Investors are advised to focus on the company's aggressive stock buyback plans and stable 1.39% dividend yield rather than overreacting to individual executive stock adjustments. Companies with strong financial resilience and expansion capabilities in the precious metals sector are crucial components of investment portfolios [4][7].