Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - With the temporary cease - fire of the military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, the geopolitical premium in the rubber market has shrunk. The Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract has experienced a high - level correction. In the future, it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend due to the divergence between bulls and bears [2][5]. - The improvement of the macro - sentiment has led to an increase in commodity valuations, and the risk appetite of the commodity market has significantly rebounded [3]. 3) Summary According to Related Content Macro Environment - Overseas markets are optimistic. The US Congress has passed relevant bills, which may lead to a loose fiscal policy and help the US debt achieve a soft landing. The US has reached tariff agreements with multiple economies, and the third - round economic and trade talks between China and the US have raised high expectations in the global financial market. This has improved the macro - factors and increased the risk appetite in the commodity market [3]. Rubber Production in Thailand and Cambodia - Thailand is the world's largest natural rubber producer, accounting for about one - third of the global total output. In 2024, its production was 466.24 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.59%. In 2025 from January to May, production was 143.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.73%. In 2024, exports were 392.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.62%. In 2025 from January to May, exports were 177.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45%. Cambodia is an emerging rubber - producing country. In 2024, its production was 40.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.93%, and exports were 39.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.65%. Thailand's annual production and exports are 11.45 times and 9.83 times that of Cambodia respectively [4]. Impact of the Conflict on Rubber Production - The conflict area between Thailand and Cambodia is mainly in Thailand's Surin Province and Cambodia's Oddar Meanchey Province. In Thailand, the rubber production in Surin Province is limited. In Cambodia, the main rubber - producing areas are not in Oddar Meanchey Province. So the conflict has a limited impact on rubber production, and the geopolitical premium in the rubber market has decreased [5].

Core Viewpoint - AMD's CEO Lisa Su emphasizes that the cost increase of American-made chips is justified by the value of supply chain resilience, leading to a significant market response and a 4% stock price increase [1][3]. Group 1: Cost and Supply Chain Dynamics - The market's reaction to Su's comments reflects a revaluation of "nearshore manufacturing" as a new valuation anchor for tech stocks, with AMD securing scarce production capacity ahead of potential tariff increases [3]. - AMD's strategy includes a 10% allocation of high-end production capacity to the U.S., which is seen as a strategic move to create a natural moat against global trade tensions [3][4]. Group 2: Competitive Positioning and Technology - AMD is gaining a competitive edge in the 2nm technology space with the delivery of the first N2 process Zen 6 chip, indicating that U.S. manufacturing capabilities are improving [3]. - The company is also focusing on local partnerships in China, forming an AI application alliance with over 100 partners, which is expected to grow to 170 by year-end [4][5]. Group 3: Strategic Commitments and Market Resilience - AMD has made four key commitments to the Chinese market, including a dedicated R&D team and partnerships with over 100 cloud instances and universities, which serve as a counterbalance to potential U.S. tariffs [5]. - The company's historical ability to turn challenges into opportunities is highlighted by its significant stock price recovery and revenue growth despite facing export losses [5][6]. Group 4: Future Technology Developments - AMD is preparing for future advancements with the MI350 chip, which boasts a 35x increase in inference performance while being 30% cheaper than NVIDIA's comparable products [6]. - The company is also developing the Helios super rack for large-scale model training, positioning itself as a key player in the upcoming AI PC market [6]. Group 5: Market Strategy and Investment Outlook - The semiconductor industry is entering a complex phase where short-term cost concerns, mid-term production capacity, and long-term ecosystem development are critical [6]. - AMD's approach to defining value in the context of a 5%-20% cost premium is seen as a strategic move that could reshape pricing power in the semiconductor supply chain [6].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed performance from July 7 to July 11, with the black series and European shipping lines leading gains, while basic metals and agricultural products experienced slight fluctuations [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil fell by 1.85%, while crude oil rose by 2.07% and lithium carbonate increased by 1.58% [1] - The black series saw significant increases, with coking coal up by 8.76%, coke up by 6.04%, and iron ore up by 4.30% [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Market Dynamics - Coking coal prices continued to rise, with a weekly increase of 8.76%, reaching 913.0 yuan/ton, driven by expectations of supply-side reforms and policies aimed at reducing "disorderly competition" [1][2] - Despite the price rebound, the supply-side remains loose, with domestic production recovering and import capabilities from Mongolia and Russia remaining strong [1][2] - The market is expected to experience a tug-of-war between weak realities and strong expectations in July, with potential pressures on coking coal prices due to reduced production incentives and seasonal demand declines [2][3] Group 3: Oil Market Trends - The geopolitical premium in oil prices has dissipated, with Brent crude oil rising by 3.09% to $70.63 per barrel, while WTI crude oil increased by 1.28% to $67.35 per barrel [4] - The oil market is returning to fundamentals, with OPEC+ discussing production increases, which may exceed market expectations [4][5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised global oil demand growth down to 720,000 barrels per day from previous estimates, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance [5][6] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.1% decrease in June CPI and a 3.6% year-on-year decline in PPI, indicating mixed economic signals [6] - Core CPI showed a slight recovery, supported by policies promoting durable goods, while PPI's decline reflects seasonal demand downturns in energy sectors [6][7] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address low-price competition and overcapacity, leading to price rebounds in industrial products like coking coal and rebar [6][7] Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - In the lithium carbonate market, supply is expected to remain high due to ongoing production ramp-ups, while demand from traditional automotive sales may face challenges [7] - The iron ore market is supported by resilient demand, although global shipments are expected to increase in the second half of the year [7] - The agricultural sector, particularly in live pig prices, is experiencing a decline, but future supply increases from new piglets may stabilize prices in the coming quarters [8]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is currently experiencing volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent attack by Houthi forces on a commercial ship, which has triggered a risk premium. This, combined with uncertainties surrounding Iran's nuclear negotiations and impending trade tariffs, creates a complex environment for oil prices, which are fluctuating within a range of $65 to $75 per barrel [1][2]. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The Houthi forces attacked the "Magic Ocean" vessel, which was reportedly heading to Israel, using drones and missiles, highlighting the escalating tensions in the region [2]. - The potential for disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could significantly impact oil prices, especially if such disruptions last more than 72 hours [2][3]. - The ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations could either stabilize or further destabilize the oil market, depending on their outcome [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Current oil prices reflect a balance of geopolitical risks and uncertainties related to trade tariffs, with a notable demand uncertainty stemming from these factors [1][3]. - The market is characterized by a "consolidation pattern" where supply pressures from OPEC's increased production are being partially offset by resilient demand during the summer driving season [3]. - The oil price is influenced by a dynamic adjustment of market expectations regarding tariff impacts on demand and geopolitical conflicts affecting supply [2][3]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The Houthi attack has injected a risk premium into the oil market through multiple channels, including shipping disruptions and the potential for increased costs due to heightened shipping risks [3]. - The financial leverage from hedge funds may amplify price movements as they adjust their positions in response to geopolitical events [3]. - The interplay between a weakening dollar and trade tariffs creates a complex scenario for oil pricing, where the financial attributes of oil may be enhanced despite potential demand suppression [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation with a slight upward bias [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Trend and Views - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of the crude oil 2509 contract are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a slight upward bias respectively, with an overall view of running strongly [1]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed up 2.03% at 507 yuan/barrel on the overnight session of Monday, and the 2508 contract is expected to maintain an oscillation with a slight upward bias on Tuesday [5]. Core Logic - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has re - emerged due to Israel's air strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, leading to a rebound in geopolitical premium and an increase in the confidence of oil market bulls after a previous significant decline [5]. - The demand factor of crude oil has come into play with the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere [5]. - Market sentiment has been repaired as Trump extended the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs, and the bullish atmosphere has supported the sharp rebound of domestic and international crude oil futures prices [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, due to macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, it will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision. High - sulfur fuel oil may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. For asphalt, it is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies. Polyester products like TA and EG are also expected to fluctuate. Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly, and methanol and other products will maintain a fluctuating trend [1][3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 8 - month contract closed down 0.45 dollars to 67 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.67%. Brent 9 - month contract closed down 0.31 dollars to 68.8 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.45%. SC2508 closed up 3.3 yuan/barrel to 507 yuan/barrel, with an increase of 0.66%. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration". With macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, the oil price will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.05% to 2987 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2509 closed up 0.89% to 3623 yuan/ton. As of July 2, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah decreased by 139.1 million barrels (13.46%) week - on - week. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than the low - sulfur ones. High - sulfur prices may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. The domestic low - sulfur supply remains sufficient, and the internal - external price difference is expected to remain low [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.25% to 3588 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased by 14.3% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. The pricing center may shift back to the north after the peak season in the north. It is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 1% at 4746 yuan/ton, EG2509 closed down 0.26% at 4288 yuan/ton, and PX 509 closed down 0.74% at 6740 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. TA and EG prices are expected to fluctuate [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 110 yuan/ton to 14015 yuan/ton. The tire production load decreased, the rubber inventory increased slightly, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of Iranian plants, the subsequent imports will increase. The MTO profit is being compressed, and the short - term methanol price will maintain a fluctuating trend [5] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is at a high level but the increase is limited, the total inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price center moves with the cost [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the arbitrage and hedging space is narrowing. The PVC price is expected to continue to fluctuate [7] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on July 3 and July 2, 2025 [9] 3. Market News - Iran's Foreign Minister said that Iran will continue to engage with the UN nuclear watchdog. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration" [11] 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. over a certain period [33][34][35] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [45][46][50] 4.4 Inter - product Spreads - It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products such as crude oil internal - external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [70] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is oscillating weakly, while there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - With the easing of the Middle East situation, the geopolitical premium has significantly declined, and the LPG futures market has returned to a narrow - range oscillation state with insufficient market drivers. The swap prices of propane and butane in the overseas market and domestic LPG spot prices have remained generally stable with small fluctuations [1] - The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains relatively loose. After the risk of supply disruption in the Middle East subsided, overseas supply is abundant, especially US LPG exports are still at a high level. The supply growth space has further expanded after the commissioning of export terminal expansion projects. The domestic refinery output has gradually recovered as maintenance ended, and the recent arrival volume has increased again, with high inventory at East China ports [1] - In terms of demand, the combustion demand is weak. Although the overall operating load of PDH plants has rebounded to over 70%, the profit is still under pressure, which restricts the further increase of the operating rate and raw material demand [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary - On July 2, 2025, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4570 - 4700 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4120 - 4310 yuan/ton; North China market, 4555 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4480 - 4650 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4620 - 4820 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4650 - 4720 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of July 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 585 dollars/ton and 540 dollars/ton respectively, remaining stable, equivalent to 4607 yuan/ton for propane and 4253 yuan/ton for butane [1] - In the first half of August 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in South China were 590 dollars/ton and 540 dollars/ton respectively, remaining stable, equivalent to 4646 yuan/ton for propane and 4253 yuan/ton for butane [1] Group 4: Chart Information - There are charts showing the spot prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and the Yangtze River regions, the spot prices of ether - post - carbon - four in Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, the Yangtze River, and Northwest regions, as well as the closing prices of PG futures' main contract, index, and near - month contract, the near - month spread, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract and total contracts [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating trend. With the weakening of the geopolitical trading logic due to the end of the conflict between Iran and Israel, and the approaching of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the oil market has entered a stage of long - short divergence. After a significant decline in the previous period, the contract showed a strong - oscillating trend on the night of Wednesday, with the price rising by 2.11% to 509.0 yuan/barrel, and is likely to continue this trend on Thursday [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog a. Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The short - term view of crude oil 2508 is oscillating [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The medium - term view of crude oil 2508 is oscillating [1]. - Intraday: The intraday view of crude oil 2508 is oscillating with a strong bias, and the reference view is a strong operation [1][5]. b. Price and Market Analysis - After the end of the conflict between Iran and Israel, the market adjusted expectations, believing that the geopolitical premium of oil prices would further decline. The oil market entered a long - short divergence stage after a previous sharp decline [5]. - With the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the demand factor for crude oil is exerting its influence. On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract maintained a strong - oscillating trend, with the price rising by 2.11% to 509.0 yuan/barrel [5]. - It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract will maintain a strong - oscillating trend on Thursday [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-07-02 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构不佳，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化，后期地缘 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-02 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化，后期地缘溢价会进一步回落。在经历前期大幅回落以后，本周油市步 ...