壹 || 一年过去，被市场称为"924"新政的宏观调控，已成为中国经济政策从"稳健"转向"适度 宽松"的关键转折点。 贰 || 一年后回望"924"，多位研究者认为，它不仅推出了一轮增量政策，为短期稳增长发挥了 重要作用，更重要的是，其反映了经济政策思路的变化。 叁 || 多位研究者认为，新的增量政策会适时推进，其规模或与"924"政策存在差异，但针对性 会更强。 进入2025年下半年，消费和投资增速放缓，部分城市房地产 价格波动加大，市场也随之抛出疑问：会有新一轮"924"政策 吗？新的增量政策又将呈现怎样的态势？ 作者： 杜涛 封图：图虫创意 导读 2025年9月24日，沪指收于3853.64点，4000余只个股上涨；而在2024年9月中下旬，沪指一度跌至 2689点。 一年间，沪指上涨超过1000点。 带来改变的是2024年9月24日（下称"924"）开启的一系列增量政策：降准、降息、化债以及创新 型的货币政策工具。这一系列政策指向了稳增长、促消费、推动物价恢复、稳定楼市与股市的多元 目标。更重要的是，增量政策的集中出台，改变了此前宏观政策的边际方向，也彰显出宏观经济思 路的转变。 "924"成为这一改 ...

地方债蓝皮书研创团队指出，2025年，国内经济延续筑底企稳态势但仍面临多重压力，特别是在关税博 弈的背景下，外部冲击影响加大，地方政府债券作为宏观调控的重要发力点，呈现三大特点：一是新增 限额大幅增加、发行规模再创新高。二是置换节奏明显前置、新增债发行相对偏慢。三是投向领域进一 步拓宽。 展望未来，蓝皮书指出，地方债也将继续稳步扩容、优化结构、提升效率，并进一步完善市场基础设施 建设，助力化债的同时更好地服务高质量发展，发挥好政府部门的稳增长"引擎"作用。此外，财税体制 改革将持续深化，进一步理顺央地关系，推动地方激励体系重构与行为模式改变，这也是促进债务与财 政可持续、破题短期与中长期发展困局的关键。 蓝皮书延续既有撰写思路，结合我国宏观经济领域、政府债务领域新动向，全面回顾了2024年地方债市 场运行情况，从历史视角总结了地方债务领域政策演化进程，从区域视角、募投领域视角深入剖析了当 前地方债发展特点及面临的问题，并对地方债助力债务化解、专项债支持稳地产、离岸人民币地方债市 场建设等新问题展开研究，提出了相应的对策建议，为地方政府债券可持续发展提供有益参考。 本报讯(记者苏诗钰)9月23日，由中国人民大学 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point interest rate cut has triggered significant market reactions, causing volatility in both U.S. and international markets, including oil and soybean prices [1][4] - The widening interest rate differential between the U.S. and China is attracting international capital, but concerns about imported inflation and the capacity of the Chinese economy to absorb this influx persist [4][5] - Despite the allure of China's interest rates, foreign investors remain cautious due to risks in the real estate market and local government debt, which could deter substantial investments [5][7] Group 2 - China's manufacturing sector shows resilience, with exports of electromechanical products steadily increasing, indicating strong growth potential that appeals to foreign investors [7] - The Chinese government is implementing policies to address real estate issues and local debt, which could enhance investor confidence and stabilize the market [7][10] - Strategic reserves and price control mechanisms are in place to mitigate the impact of rising commodity prices on consumers, ensuring that inflation remains manageable [8][10] Group 3 - The challenges faced by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in accessing financing are significant, with a preference from banks to lend to larger, more established companies [11][12] - The People's Bank of China is focusing on targeted monetary policy measures, such as lowering the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate, to provide low-cost funds to SMEs and the manufacturing sector [12] - Overall, China's economic strategy is proactive, leveraging its strong industrial base and market size to navigate global economic challenges effectively [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's fiscal policy will continue to balance risk prevention and development promotion, with ample room for future fiscal policy actions [1] - China's long-term economic stability remains unchanged, providing a solid foundation for fiscal operations [1] - The experience accumulated in macroeconomic regulation has enhanced the ability for counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [1] Group 2 - The fiscal department will maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in policy planning [1] - The domestic margin balance has reached a new high of 2.3 trillion yuan, indicating a sustained market profit effect that may attract more funds [1] - The Guotai CSI A500 ETF (159338) is highlighted as a representative broad-based product for investors to capture long-term investment opportunities in China's economy [1]

财政政策作为宏观调控主要手段，具有扩大总需求和定向调结构的双重优势。"十四五"以来，中国财政 政策始终保持积极取向，既主动应对经济短期波动，加强逆周期调节，又始终锚定推进中国式现代化这 一中心任务，着力增强中长期发展动能；既注重保持政策连续性稳定性，又根据宏观经济形势变化相机 抉择，科学把握力度节奏，成为推动经济平稳健康发展的重要力量。 蓝佛安表示："我们对财政宏观调控的规律性认识也在逐步深化。比如，财政宏观调控总体要稳，但在 形势变化较大时，也要及时调整、增强针对性灵活性。比如，更加注重促进微观经济循环，通过支持地 方置换存量隐性债务、发行专项债券支持土地储备和收购存量商品房用作保障性住房等，畅通地方和企 业资金链条，打通循环堵点。再比如，加强财政与货币等政策协同，形成政策合力。今年专门发行5000 亿元特别国债，为大型商业银行注入资本金，预计可撬动信贷投放约6万亿元。" 据蓝佛安介绍，"十四五"期间财政政策主要有四方面特点： （原标题：财政部部长蓝佛安：财政政策始终留有后手 未来财政政策发力空间依然充足） 9月12日，国务院新闻办举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会。 财政部部长蓝佛安在发布 ...

Group 1 - Fiscal policy remains a key macroeconomic tool, balancing demand expansion and structural adjustment since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The Minister of Finance, Lan Fo'an, indicated that there is still ample room for fiscal policy to act in the future, with a focus on risk prevention and development promotion [1][2] - The overall fiscal strength of the country is increasing, with public budget revenue expected to reach 106 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 19% increase from the previous plan [2] Group 2 - The total public budget expenditure during the 14th Five-Year Plan is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] - Central government transfers to local governments are expected to approach 50 trillion yuan over five years, with annual transfers exceeding 10 trillion yuan in recent years [2] - The macroeconomic policies have effectively supported economic growth, with GDP reaching 66.05 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a 5.3% year-on-year increase [3]

中国财长：未来财政政策发力空间依然充足 中新社北京9月12日电 (记者 赵建华)中国财政部部长蓝佛安12日在北京强调，财政政策统筹考虑防风险 和促发展，始终留有后手，未来财政政策发力空间依然充足。 当天在国务院新闻办公室举行的发布会上，蓝佛安介绍，中国财政收入"蛋糕"越来越大，支出强度前所 未有。"十四五"时期，全国一般公共预算收入预计达到106万亿元(人民币，下同)，比"十三五"时期增加 17万亿元。地方财政实力稳步壮大，从2024年数据看，16个省份财政收入比2020年增长20%以上；7个 省份超5000亿元，其中2个省份超1万亿元。全国一般公共预算支出五年预计超过136万亿元，比"十三 五"时期增加26万亿元。 蓝佛安表示，财政政策作为宏观调控主要手段，具有扩大总需求和定向调结构的双重优势。"十四五"以 来，财政政策始终保持积极取向，力度更加给力，工具更加丰富，发力更加精准，时机更加灵活。其中 包括： "十四五"以来，赤字率从2.7%提高到3.8%，今年进一步提高到4%；安排新增地方政府专项债券额度 19.4万亿元；新增减税降费及退税缓税缓费超10万亿元，财政政策空间进一步打开。综合运用政府债 券、税收 ...

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the characteristics of fiscal policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting its proactive and precise nature to support stable economic development [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Characteristics of Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy has become more forceful, with the deficit ratio increasing from 2.7% to 3.8%, and further to 4% this year. Additionally, a new quota of 19.4 trillion yuan for local government special bonds has been arranged, along with over 1 trillion yuan in new tax reductions and deferrals [1] - The tools used in fiscal policy have become more diverse, employing government bonds, tax measures, fiscal subsidies, and special funds to enhance the synergy with other macro policies, thereby amplifying the policy multiplier effect [1] - The focus of fiscal policy has become more precise, addressing economic bottlenecks and challenges, such as a one-time arrangement of 6 trillion yuan in debt limit to replace hidden debts, significantly alleviating repayment pressure for local governments [1] Group 2: Flexibility and Future Outlook - The timing of policy implementation has become more flexible, with a focus on early execution and ensuring policies are effective as soon as possible [2] - There is a deepening understanding of the laws of fiscal macro-control, emphasizing the promotion of microeconomic circulation and the collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies [3] - The future fiscal policy space remains ample, with a solid foundation for fiscal operations and enhanced counter-cyclical adjustment capabilities, ensuring readiness for future challenges [4]

央视网消息：9月12日下午，国务院新闻办公室举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会。财政部部长蓝佛安介绍，财政政策 作为宏观调控主要手段，具有扩大总需求和定向调结构的双重优势。"十四五"时期，财政宏观调控实现了很多新的突破。 "十四五"以来 财政政策工具更加丰富 财政部部长蓝佛安介绍，"十四五"以来，财政政策始终保持积极取向，成为推动经济平稳健康发展的重要力量。力度上更加给力，"十四五"以 来，赤字率从2.7%提高到3.8%，2025年进一步提高到4%。安排新增地方政府专项债券额度19.4万亿元。新增减税降费及退税缓税缓费超10万 亿元，财政政策空间进一步打开。 财政政策发力更加精准 财政政策出台时机更加灵活 此外，财政政策出台时机更加灵活，抓住时间窗口，确保早落地、早见效。 蓝佛安介绍，"十四五"以来，财政政策工具更加丰富。综合运用政府债券、税收、财政贴息、专项资金等工具，强化与其他宏观政策协同，放 大政策乘数效应。比如创造性发行使用超长期特别国债，用于"两重""两新"，支持全方位扩大内需。 不仅如此，财政政策聚焦畅通经济循环，发力更加精准。比如一次性安排6万亿元债务限额置换存量隐性债务，帮助地 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant achievements in fiscal reform and development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting increased public budget revenues and expenditures [1][2][3] - The national general public budget revenue is expected to reach 106 trillion yuan, an increase of 17 trillion yuan or approximately 19% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - The national general public budget expenditure is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, an increase of 26 trillion yuan or 24% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, with more funds directed towards development and people's livelihood [1] Group 2 - The fiscal policy has become more proactive and adaptable, contributing to an average economic growth rate of 5.5% over the past four years, with a contribution rate to global economic growth of around 30% [2] - The fiscal deficit ratio has been raised from 2.7% to 4% this year, with new local government special bond quotas of 19.4 trillion yuan and tax reductions exceeding 1 trillion yuan [3] - Central government transfers to local governments are nearly 50 trillion yuan over the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, ensuring stable local fiscal operations [4] Group 3 - The issuance of 500 billion yuan in special government bonds this year is expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan in credit [5] - The national budget allocates 1 trillion yuan for childcare subsidies and 200 billion yuan for gradually implementing free preschool education, reflecting a strong focus on people's livelihoods [6] - The fiscal department plans to maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to support high-quality economic and social development [7] Group 4 - The Ministry of Finance has developed and is advancing an implementation plan for deepening the fiscal and tax system reform [8][9] - The government's total debt is projected to be 92.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 68.7%, indicating that the debt level is within a reasonable range [10] - As of the end of August, the average interest cost of debt replacement has decreased by over 2.5 percentage points, saving more than 450 billion yuan in interest expenses [11] - Over 60% of financing platforms are expected to exit by June 2025, indicating significant progress in the reform and transformation of financing platforms [12]