编者按： 日前召开的中央经济工作会议，明确了明年经济工作的总体要求和政策取向，部署了明年经济工 作"八个坚持"的重点任务，抓住关键、纲举目张。为深入学习贯彻会议精神，本报即日起推出"落实 会议部署 问答中国经济"系列述评，围绕发展目标设定、赤字规模安排、推动投资企稳等10个方面 热点问题展开讨论，敬请关注。 财政政策作为宏观调控的主要手段，通过预算、政府债券、税收等工具组合，发挥扩大总需求和定向调结构 的双重优势，实现经济质的有效提升和量的合理增长。在中央经济工作会议提出"保持必要的财政赤字、债务 总规模和支出总量"的总体要求后，市场对明年财政赤字率的设定高度关注。 财政赤字是衡量全年财政政策力度和财政风险水平的重要指标，直接关系到年内政府支出规模。目前，市场 机构与业内人士对财政赤字率的预期较为一致，预计明年赤字率不低于今年水平，即不低于4%。该赤字率水 平既能延续财政扩张态势，又避免了债务风险过快累积。 财政赤字率是社会各界观察宏观政策力度的风向标，从稳定市场预期角度看，"十五五"开局之年的财政赤字 率水平不宜低于上年。2025年，财政政策取向转为"更加积极"，赤字率大幅提升1个百分点至4%，为近年最 高 ...

新华社北京12月16日电 题：必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举——学习领会"五个必须"做好明年经济 工作 新华社记者于佳欣、刘开雄、任军 日前召开的中央经济工作会议上，习近平总书记以"五个必须"概括做好新形势下经济工作新的认识 和体会。"必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举"，是其中的重要内容。 既要政策给力，也要改革发力，深刻体现了习近平经济思想蕴含的治理智慧。越是面临复杂形势和 不确定因素，越要坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，增强其协同效应，如此才能夯实经济发展根基，不断 激发高质量发展的内生动力。 既要政策给力也要改革发力 "尽管面临着巨大冲击，中国经济依然表现出强劲韧性。"日前，国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁格 奥尔基耶娃作出如是评价。 格奥尔基耶娃的话，道出近期多个国际组织上调中国经济增速预期背后的考量：中国政府推出更加 积极有为的宏观政策支撑了消费和投资，而持续深化的结构性改革则进一步释放了经济活力与潜力。 坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，是我国经济面对外部逆风承压前行，却依然保持向新向优的重要密 码。 "必须综合施策，既要加强宏观调控，减轻短期经济波动，又要不失时机地全面深化改革，向改革 要动力、要活力，推动经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference outlines the economic work for 2025 and 2026, emphasizing the need to maintain confidence and leverage advantages to address challenges, ensuring a stable and positive economic momentum [1][2]. Economic Performance and Goals - The economic and social development goals for 2025 are expected to be achieved smoothly, with a projected GDP growth of around 5% year-on-year, making China the largest engine of global economic growth [2][3]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is nearing completion, with 20 key indicators set to be met, showcasing resilience and vitality in the face of challenges such as the pandemic [2][3]. Key Challenges - The economy faces persistent issues, including weak domestic demand and risks in key sectors, which are seen as challenges that can be addressed through concerted efforts [2][3]. Five Imperatives for Economic Work - The conference highlighted five essential strategies for economic work: 1. Fully explore economic potential by expanding consumption, investment, and regional development [3][4]. 2. Combine policy support with reform innovation to address intertwined economic issues [4]. 3. Balance deregulation with effective governance to enhance productivity while maintaining market order [4]. 4. Invest in both physical and human capital to promote comprehensive development and improve public welfare [4]. 5. Strengthen internal capabilities to face external challenges and enhance self-innovation [5]. Economic Work for 2026 - The economic work for 2026 will focus on maintaining stable growth, ensuring employment and price stability, and promoting income growth alongside economic growth [6][7]. - A proactive fiscal policy will be implemented, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and optimizing expenditure structures to support strategic initiatives [6][7]. - A moderately loose monetary policy will be adopted to ensure liquidity and support key sectors such as technology and small enterprises [7][8]. Eight Key Tasks for 2026 - The conference identified eight key tasks for economic work in 2026, including: 1. Prioritizing domestic demand and building a strong domestic market. 2. Accelerating innovation and nurturing new growth drivers. 3. Enhancing high-quality development through reform. 4. Promoting cooperation in various fields through openness. 5. Coordinating urban-rural integration and regional development. 6. Leading with carbon neutrality to drive green transformation. 7. Focusing on people's livelihoods and addressing practical issues. 8. Safeguarding against risks in key areas [9][10]. Employment and Risk Management - Employment remains a priority, with policies aimed at stabilizing job markets for key demographics such as graduates and migrant workers [10]. - Measures will be taken to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt risks, ensuring no systemic risks arise [10].

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that macroeconomic regulation will be proactive next year, focusing on expectation management and introducing new measures to promote stable and high-quality economic growth [1] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration released the "Supervision and Management Measures for Commercial Bank Custody Business (Trial)", which aims to strengthen supervision of commercial bank custody services and prohibits banks from guaranteeing principal or returns on custody products [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference indicated that the main expected goals for economic and social development in 2025 will be achieved smoothly, marking a successful conclusion to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 2 - The National Film Administration reported that the total box office for the year has reached 50.003 billion yuan, with total attendance at 1.194 billion [2] - The UK Office for National Statistics announced a 0.1% month-on-month decline in GDP for October, indicating a greater-than-expected economic slowdown [2] Group 3 - The Indian Cabinet approved the export of coal from power plants with excess coal inventory [3] - The National Medical Security Work Conference aims to achieve "no out-of-pocket" expenses for childbirth within the policy scope nationwide by next year, with several provinces already providing full coverage for hospitalization costs related to childbirth [3] - Multiple departments, including the State Administration for Market Regulation, issued guidelines to improve the quality of products and services on online trading platforms, addressing issues such as product discrepancies and complicated consumer rights protection processes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized the importance of implementing the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, focusing on macroeconomic management and financial stability for the upcoming year [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Policy Direction - The PBOC acknowledged the achievements made over the past year despite external pressures and internal challenges, highlighting the effectiveness of the central leadership in navigating economic complexities [3]. - The meeting underscored the need for a proactive macroeconomic policy to ensure stable economic growth and high-quality development, aligning with the goals set for the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Financial Management - The PBOC plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [5]. - There will be an emphasis on enhancing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and optimizing structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [5][6]. Group 3: Financial Stability and Risk Management - The meeting highlighted the importance of preventing and mitigating financial risks, maintaining a balance between economic growth, structural adjustments, and financial stability [5]. - The PBOC aims to strengthen financial risk monitoring and establish mechanisms for providing liquidity to non-bank financial institutions under specific scenarios [5][6]. Group 4: Financial Openness and International Cooperation - The PBOC is committed to advancing high-level financial openness while ensuring national financial security, participating in global financial governance reforms, and promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [6]. - The development of a comprehensive cross-border payment system for the Renminbi and the gradual rollout of digital currency are also key focuses [6].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the importance of implementing the central government's economic policies and strategies for the upcoming year, focusing on macroeconomic stability and financial management to support high-quality development and economic growth [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Policy Direction - The meeting highlighted that despite external pressures and internal challenges, China's economy has made significant progress, achieving key development goals for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]. - The central bank is tasked with adhering to the principles of Xi Jinping's thought and the directives from the 20th National Congress, ensuring a stable and progressive approach to monetary policy [3][4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Financial Support - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [5]. - There will be a flexible use of various monetary policy tools, such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments, to maintain ample liquidity and support the real economy [5]. Group 3: Financial Stability and Risk Management - The meeting stressed the importance of preventing and mitigating financial risks, particularly in key sectors, to maintain overall financial stability [6]. - A robust monitoring and early warning system for financial risks will be established to ensure the smooth operation of financial markets and institutions [6]. Group 4: Financial Openness and International Cooperation - The central bank aims to promote high-level financial openness while safeguarding national financial security, engaging in global financial governance, and advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi [6]. - Efforts will be made to develop a comprehensive cross-border payment system for the Renminbi and to steadily advance the digital currency initiative [6].

专题：中央经济工作会议在北京举行 业内解读 | 超长期特别国债 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 人工智能 + | | | | 地方财政 | | | | 预期管理 | 0 | | | 因同经贸斗争 | 0 | | | 资料来源: Wind,公开资料整理 | | | | 风险提示:数据股踪仅供参考,不构成投资建议; | | 联系人:覃汉/章恒豪 | | 公开资料整理的不完整性。 | | | 责任编辑：何俊熹 专题：中央经济工作会议在北京举行 业内解读 | | "中央经济工作会议"关注要点梳理 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 维度 | 2024年 | 2025年 | | | 总体定位与形势判断 | | | 坚持稳中求进、以进促稳,守正创新、先立后破,系 | | 坚持稳中求进、提质增效,发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 | | 工作员罪信 | 统集成、协同配合,充实完善政策工具箱,提高宏观 | 应,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,提升宏观经济治理效能。 | | 调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性。 | | | | 外部压力加大、内部困难增多,国内需求不足,部分 | | 外部环境变化影响加 ...

任志强认为，"八个坚持"构建了覆盖供需两端的政策体系，内需主导与创新驱动聚焦经济增长动能转换，改革攻坚与对外 开放着力破解制度性障碍，双碳引领与协调发展优化区域和产业布局，民生保障与风险防控则筑牢社会稳定底线。值得注意的 是，政策特别强调"存量政策与增量政策协同"，表明宏观治理正从单点突破转向系统集成，将显著提升政策传导效率。 （编辑 张昕） 本报讯 （记者袁传玺）近日，华福证券总裁助理兼研究所所长任志强发布题为《政策加力提质护航"十五五"高质量发展》 等多份研究报告。 任志强在研报中表示，从长期维度看，过去五年有效应对多重冲击挑战，经济、科技、国防等硬实力与文化、制度、外交 等软实力同步跃升，"十四五"即将圆满收官，不仅为"十五五"开局奠定了物质基础，更积累了应对复杂局面、统筹发展与安全 的宝贵经验，让"稳中求进"有了更坚实的底气与更充足的空间。这种"稳"不是静态的停滞，而是动态的均衡，为后续"进"的突 破预留了充足势能。 任志强表示，12月8日召开的中共中央政治局会议提出"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"，并特别强调增强政策的"前瞻性、 针对性、协同性"。这预示着未来宏观调控将更注重政策组合拳的效能，财政、货 ...

2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年，也是"十五五"规划谋篇布局之年。面对错综复杂的国际形势和艰巨繁重的国内改革发展稳定任务，以习近平同志为核心的 党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民，迎难而上、奋力拼搏，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，以历史主动精神克难关、战风险、迎挑 战，集中力量办好自己的事，我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，中国式现代化迈出新的坚实步伐。 "十四五"规划即将圆满收官，奋进的中国，不断在时间线上标注下新的刻度。 一辆汽车，照见中国产业升级之变。智能工厂里，一分钟下线两台新能源汽车。人工智能、数字孪生等前沿技术正在改变中国制造，目前，卓越级智能工厂 已覆盖超过80%的制造业行业大类。 一座海岛，彰显中国高水平开放之姿，眼下，海南自贸港即将正式启动全岛封关运作，制度型开放稳步扩大，我国新时代对外开放的重要门户加快建设。 践行新发展理念，中国经济在高质量发展的道路上笃定前行。 一个湾区，见证中国创新引领之力。粤港澳大湾区，沿珠江两岸，10多个大科学装置正吸引全球创新要素加速聚集，深圳-香港-广州创新集群今年首次跃升 为全球第一大创新集群。 回望2025年，中国经济面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting serves as a precursor to the Central Economic Work Conference, indicating that a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will continue into 2026, suggesting a sustained loose funding environment for the commodity market [3][9]. Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The combination of "expansive fiscal policy + loose monetary policy" is expected to create a macro backdrop that supports the commodity market [3][9]. - Attention should be paid to the language used in future statements, particularly phrases like "increase macro control" and "strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments," which may indicate a stronger policy commitment and boost market sentiment [3][9]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Considerations - Key focus areas include the deficit rate and the scale of special bonds, which reflect the government's leverage efforts. If these exceed market expectations, it suggests a more aggressive push for economic growth, positively impacting demand for commodities like copper and stock index futures [10][11]. - The allocation of funds will be crucial, whether directed towards "new infrastructure, new urbanization, and major projects," or towards "large-scale equipment updates" and "consumer goods replacement," influencing demand trends in various commodity sectors [11][12]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Real Estate - The extent of monetary policy adjustments will directly signal liquidity levels. Confirmation of a continued loose monetary stance could lower financing costs and enhance market risk appetite, potentially directing funds into the futures market [12][13]. - The real estate market's stabilization in 2026 is critical for the price trends of black commodities. The absence of specific mentions regarding the real estate market in this year's meeting raises questions about potential new policies to stabilize the sector [13]. Group 4: Market Expectations and New Opportunities - The market often reacts to new expectations, so the conference's potential establishment of quantifiable targets for consumption or investment growth, or emphasis on new investment areas like "AI+" or "green consumption," could inject new trading momentum into relevant sectors [5][12]. - The final outcomes will depend on the official communiqué released after the conference, with potential for increased price volatility during the meeting as market expectations evolve [5][12].