周一，美国主要股指收盘上涨，标准普尔500指数上涨0.3%，收于6,699点，距离近期历史高点仅一步之遥。总体而言，本季度股市表现非常积极。 外汇市场方面，美元指数在空头仓位减少和美联储言论鸽派程度低于市场预期的推动下大幅上涨，昨日美元指数小幅收低，跌幅约0.3%。最终，自今年年 初以来，美元指数一直保持下行趋势；因此，反弹抛售可能仍将是市场的核心主题。 由于市场对美国政府可能关门的不确定性以及降息预期，金价继续走高，近期再创每金衡盎司3,870美元的历史新高。 8月份JOLTS职位空缺数据将于格林威治标准时间下午2:00公布，经济学家预计该数据为718.5万，与7月份的718.1万基本持平。值得注意的是，预测分布显 示就业人数介于最高值791万至最低值700万之间。 这份报告至关重要，因为它提供了在周五可能发布的重磅就业报告之前，对潜在劳动力需求最清晰的解读之一。 美国政府关门迫在眉睫？ 副总统JDVance昨日登上头条，他表示自己认为政府即将关门，并在白宫与国会领导人会晤后将责任归咎于民主党。由于资金将于周三凌晨12:01到期，共和 党和民主党都尚未取得任何进展。 当然，其影响远不止政治层面。潜在的政府关 ...

Report Summary of the Metal Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper price may rise in the short - term due to mine - end disturbances, and the medium - to long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. The price center may gradually increase. The main price range to watch is 81000 - 81500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is in a "high - supply, high - inventory, weak - demand" situation. The spot price is expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the macro environment is relatively warm, and the price is supported by peak - season demand and inventory inflection points, with the main contract expected to oscillate between 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract's operating range between 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton, supported by cost and pre - holiday stocking but restricted by weak demand recovery and inventory accumulation [5]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc is in a loose situation, and the price may be driven up in the short - term by the macro environment but lacks upward momentum from the fundamentals. The main price range is 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton. The macro situation is stable, and there are more disturbances at the mine end, with cost support, but the medium - term supply is loose [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton. The raw material price provides cost support, but the peak - season demand has not been fully realized, and inventory de - stocking is under pressure [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with the main price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton, supported by strong peak - season demand [16]. 3. Summary by Catalog Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 82210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium remained unchanged at - 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 26.43 million tons, a decrease of 10.99% [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, an increase of 1.15% compared to the previous month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a slight increase [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20900 yuan/ton. The monthly spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a decrease of 1.60% compared to the previous month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 21630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts decreased by 15 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, an increase of 3.88% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 2.57 million tons, an increase of 43.30% [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 271400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84%. The LME 0 - 3 premium remained unchanged at - 50 dollars/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In August, the tin ore import was 10267 tons, a decrease of 0.11% compared to the previous month, and the SMM refined tin production was 15390 tons, a decrease of 3.45% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 122000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. The LME 0 - 3 decreased to - 187 dollars/ton [12]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in August was 32200 tons, an increase of 1.26% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 17536 tons, a decrease of 8.46% [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) dropped to 13050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The monthly spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% compared to the previous month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped to 73550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 100 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, an increase of 4.55% compared to the previous month, and the demand was 104023 tons, an increase of 8.25% [16].

Well, our next guest has the most important catalyst he sees for investors next week. Joining us now is Vital Knowledge founder Adam Chrysafouli. Adam, with the big jobs report at the end of the week, what can possibly get the markets attention before that.Well, we have a few events before then. The ISMs are going to be interesting that give you kind of a good first look at the month of September and those will not be impacted by the shutdown. So, we're definitely going to have those uh in hand.And then a f ...

前言 聊起美国经济，最近最绕不开的就是"利率怎么走"和"矛盾怎么解"这两件事，这是资本的本质，也是美 国社会的根基之一。 很多人盯着美联储的降息信号，但很少有人把背后白宫、央行、市场的拧巴劲儿说透。 其实现在美国经济的核心问题，早就不是"降多少息"，而是"政策方向能不能对齐"。 尤其是在就业数据这个敏感点上，美联储和白宫的角力，已经成了解开所有问题的第一道锁。 就业数据博弈 美联储主席鲍威尔最近的表态很明确：短期内美联储的重心从通胀转向了就业，言下之意就是"只要就 业数据冷下来，降息就有理由"。 这个逻辑本身没问题，毕竟美联储的双重使命就是控通胀、稳就业，但坏就坏在，美国的就业数据早已 不是单纯的经济指标，而是成了特朗普的"政治成绩单"。 此前美国大幅下修就业数据，特朗普对此震怒，随即解雇劳工统计局局长，任命自己的亲信EGAnthony 接任。 这位新局长上任后便公开表态，认为"月度就业报告可改为季度发布"。 尽管目前月度报告尚未正式调整，但政策风向已明确：特朗普绝不容忍"疲软就业数据"影响竞选支持 率，其任期内的就业数据必须"呈现向好态势"。 这一局面暗藏关键矛盾：若就业数据被"修饰"，原本低迷的数据被调整 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant drop in initial jobless claims in the U.S., with the number falling to 218,000, which is much lower than expected, leading to a sell-off in bonds and an increase in U.S. Treasury yields [1][3] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.1 basis points to 3.659%, the 10-year yield increased by 4.2 basis points to 4.189%, and the 30-year yield went up by 1.1 basis points to 4.769% [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the labor market's weakness has shifted the risk balance regarding inflation, suggesting a moderately restrictive policy stance to address potential economic developments [4] Group 2 - In Europe, signs of a weakening labor market in Germany were noted, although consumer sentiment showed slight improvement, with the GfK consumer confidence index expected to rise from -23.5 in September to -22.3 in October [4] - The 10-year German bond yield increased by 2.4 basis points to 2.771%, while the 10-year Italian bond yield rose by 4.9 basis points to 3.642%, and the 10-year French bond yield went up by 3.3 basis points to 3.601% [4] - In the UK, the Chancellor faces pressure to address a £62 billion budget deficit, with speculation about potential tax increases as economic growth stagnated in July following a 0.3% GDP growth in Q2 [5] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields also saw an upward trend, with the 2-year yield rising by 0.8 basis points to 0.934% and the 10-year yield increasing by 1.3 basis points to 1.656% [5] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance successfully issued 399.4 billion yen in a 40-year bond auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.8, indicating strong market demand [5] - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue $229 billion in three bond types, including $100 billion in 4-week bills and $85 billion in 8-week bills, along with $44 billion in 7-year bonds [7]

Europe-listed stocks listed are expected to open in mixed territory on Thursday, as investors await the latest U.S. jobs data.Futures tied to the FTSE 100 were last seen trading 0.2% lower, while those linked to the German DAX index and France's CAC 40 were flat.On Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department will release its latest weekly jobs data. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the cooling labor market was overriding concerns about sticky inflation, prompting the central bank's first int ...

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月24日 星期三 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 80010 | 80225 | -215.00 | -0.27% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 55 | 60 | -5.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 80030 | 80265 | -235.00 | -0.29% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 70 | 70 | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 79920 | 80130 | -210.00 | -0.26% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -35 | -35 | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 1799 | 1872 | -73.62 | -3 ...

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 美联储本周宣布降息25个基点，重启中断了9个月的降息周期。周五，在智通财经举办的一场直播活动中，两位与会嘉 宾认为，今年年底前美联储很可能再降息两次，但随着特朗普关税政策向通胀的进一步传导，未来美联储能否持续降息 存在较大的不确定性。 来源：智通财经 美联储最新公布的利率点阵图中值显示，今年年底前还会有2次降息，每次25个基点，较6月的点阵图多了1次降息。 她表示，年内美联储大概率会持续推进降息，再降息两次的概率比较大，但并非"板上钉钉"。 "我们从这次会议公布的利率'点阵图'的分布来看，美联储内部对于年内的降息节奏的分歧很大。这也意味着后续的政 策路径并不是非常绝对的，还是具有一定的不确定性，不排除未来随着通胀、就业走势变化而发生降息节奏改变的可能 性。"白雪说。 中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英也表示，虽然目前来看年底前再降息两次是大概率事件，但随着特朗普关税对 通胀的进一步传导，10月和12月会议还是要看具体的数据表现来决定降息与否以及幅度。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在 会后的新闻发布会上也明确表示，未来每一次会议都会单独来看，会坚持数据依赖的决策方式。 刘英提到，此次会议上展 ...

9月18日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至 4.00%-4.25%， 符合市场普遍预期。同时，这也是美联储2025年以来的首次降息。 据悉，长期疲软的就业数据是导致美联储再次启动降息的主要原因。 对此，鲍威尔表示，此次降息举措是一项风险管理决策，没有必要快速调整利率。这意味着美联储并不 会进入持续性的降息周期。 美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，8月份非农就业人数仅增加2.2万，较7月份修正后的7.9万大幅下降。 市场此前预计，8月份就业岗位将增加7.5万个，远低于预期。8月失业率为4.3%升至近四年来新高。综 合修正后的数据，2024年4月至2025年3月美国就业增长数据下调91.1万个。 鲍威尔也在新闻发布会上暗示，美联储正在把政策重点从通胀转向就业。鲍威尔称，美联储的政策一直 侧重针对通胀，现在正朝着更中性的政策方向发展。美国劳动力市场正在降温，是时候在政策制定中考 虑到这一点了。 需要注意的是，美国在面临就业下行压力的同时，还因关税上涨面临通胀偏向上行的风险。而美联储的 目标是长期实现就业最大化和2%的通货膨胀率。 中信证券也在研报中分析称，点阵图指引年内还有50bp ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on September 16-17, 2025, is generating significant market speculation regarding a potential interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points due to weak employment data and persistent inflation concerns [2][3][5] - The August non-farm payroll report showed only 22,000 new jobs added, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021 [2][3] - The consumer price index (CPI) for August increased by 2.9% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month, with core CPI steady at 3.1%, indicating inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target [3][5] Group 2 - Market expectations heavily favor a 25 basis point cut, with a 96% probability according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, while the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut is only 4% [5][9] - Political pressures are influencing the Fed's decision-making, with former President Trump advocating for significant rate cuts to stimulate the economy ahead of midterm elections, which could undermine the Fed's independence [5][7] - The potential for a 50 basis point cut could signal severe economic issues, leading to market panic, while a 25 basis point cut would be seen as a standard response, allowing for gradual market adjustments [9]