Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the U.S. is moving forward with a new round of tariffs on multiple countries, which has implications for trade relations and market stability [1][2][3] - U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer stated that the new tariffs, including 35% on Canadian goods, 50% on Brazilian goods, 25% on Indian goods, and 39% on Swiss goods, are "basically set" and will not be adjusted during current negotiations [2][3] - President Trump criticized the former Labor Statistics Bureau chief, Erica McEntyre, for allegedly inflating employment data before the election and subsequently revising it down by nearly 1 million jobs, which he termed a "scam" [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, as evidenced by the July unemployment rate rising and non-farm payrolls underperforming market expectations [4] - The Labor Department's recent data revision for May and June, which significantly lowered previously reported job numbers, has led to strong dissatisfaction from the Trump administration, resulting in the dismissal of McEntyre [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weak non - farm data in the US strengthens the drive for interest rate cuts. With Trump's pressure on the Fed's monetary policy independence through personnel appointments and significantly lower - than - expected employment data, it is certain that the Fed will implement further accommodative monetary policies. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of SHFE gold being 773 - 801 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of SHFE silver being 8885 - 9287 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Weekly Market Review**: Affected by the hawkish stance of the Fed's July FOMC meeting, precious metal prices were weak this week. By the close of Friday's daytime session, SHFE gold fell 0.85% to 770.72 yuan/gram, and SHFE silver fell 5.05% to 8918.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 2.32% to 3416.00 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 3.18% to 37.11 US dollars/ounce [11][29]. - **Fed's FOMC Meeting Impact**: Fed Chair Powell's hawkish stance on monetary policy at the FOMC meeting pressured gold and silver prices. However, Governors Bowman and Waller voted against and advocated for interest rate cuts. Their statements indicated a clear divergence within the Fed on monetary policy. Additionally, the potential resignation of Governor Kugler gives Trump the opportunity to appoint a Fed governor who aligns with his views, shaking the foundation of Powell's independent and hawkish monetary policy [11]. - **Non - farm Data Impact**: The ADP employment data and GDP data released on Wednesday showed resilience. But the non - farm payroll data released on Friday was significantly weaker than expected, reversing the market's previous view of the US economy's resilience. After the release of the non - farm data, the market's expectation of the Fed's subsequent accommodative monetary policy rebounded sharply. The probability that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September FOMC meeting rose to 80.3%, and it is also expected that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the October FOMC meeting [11]. 3.2. Market Review - **Price Performance**: Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, precious metal prices were weak. SHFE gold fell 0.85% to 770.72 yuan/gram, SHFE silver fell 5.05% to 8918.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX gold rose 2.32% to 3416.00 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 3.18% to 37.11 US dollars/ounce [11][29]. - **Position Performance**: The domestic gold position was stronger than the overseas one. SHFE gold's position increased slightly by 2.93% to 431,600 lots, while COMEX gold's position as of the latest reporting period fell 9.02% to 445,300 lots. Both domestic and overseas silver positions were weak. SHFE silver's total position fell 8.57% to 786,000 lots this week, and COMEX silver's total position as of the latest reporting period fell 1.93% to 170,300 lots [31][34]. - **Managed Fund Net Position**: As of the latest reporting period on July 29, the net positions of COMEX gold and silver managed funds both declined. COMEX gold's managed fund net position decreased by 25,700 lots to 134,300 lots, and COMEX silver's managed fund net position decreased by 990 lots to 43,000 lots [36]. - **ETF Position**: As of August 1, the total position of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope was 2167.6 tons, and the total position of overseas silver ETFs was 27,381 tons [39]. 3.3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **US Treasury Yield Curve**: The report presents the spreads between 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries and the yields of short - term US Treasuries [50][51]. - **Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations**: The report shows the US federal funds rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal and real interest rates, and inflation expectations [53][54]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: This week, the balance of the Treasury General Account on the Fed's liability side replenished 8.59 billion US dollars, and the scale of deposit reserves decreased to 3.29 trillion US dollars [56][59]. 3.4. Macroeconomic Data - **CPI & PCE**: In June, the US CPI year - on - year was 2.7%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 2.4%. The month - on - month was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.1%. The core CPI year - on - year was 2.9%, lower than the expected 3%, and the month - on - month was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [64]. - **Employment Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 26 was 218,000, lower than the expected 224,000 [67]. - **PMI & PPI**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in July was 48, below the boom - bust line, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49 [70]. - **New Home Data**: In June, the annualized total number of new housing starts in the US was 1.321 million, higher than the expected 1.3 million and the previous value of 1.263 million. The annualized total number of building permits was 1.397 million, higher than the expected 1.39 million and the previous value of 1.394 million [73]. 3.5. Precious Metal Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The report shows the basis of gold TD - SHFE gold [76]. - **Silver Basis**: The report shows the basis of silver TD - SHFE silver [78]. - **Domestic - Overseas Spreads of Gold and Silver**: The report presents the domestic - overseas spreads of gold and silver [81]. 3.6. Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventory**: The report shows the silver inventories of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, and LBMA [88][91][92]. - **Gold Inventory**: The report shows the gold inventories of COMEX and LBMA [94].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights President Trump's decision to dismiss the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erica McEntyre, due to dissatisfaction with the latest employment data released by the Department of Labor [1] - Trump accused McEntyre, who was appointed during a Democratic administration, of "falsifying data" to benefit Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris before the last election [1] - Public reactions on social media criticized Trump's actions, suggesting that he is shifting blame rather than addressing the underlying economic policies [1] Group 2 - Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer criticized Trump for not attempting to fix the economy and instead targeting the messenger, stating that this does not alleviate the chaos created by his tariff policies [1] - Schumer emphasized that the suffering of the American people will not disappear as a result of Trump's actions [1]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler announced her resignation, expressing honor in serving during a critical time for the dual mission of lowering inflation and maintaining a strong labor market [1] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell thanked Kugler for her service and noted her impressive experience and academic insights [1] - Kugler's resignation opens the opportunity for President Trump to nominate a candidate more aligned with his monetary policy stance, potentially shifting the balance in future Fed interest rate decisions [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department released disappointing employment data, with only 73,000 non-farm jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, and a major downward revision of June's data from over 200,000 to just 14,000 [2] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expressed concerns about the economic outlook due to the latest employment data, while Cleveland Fed President Mester maintained that the labor market remains healthy despite the disappointing report [2] - Following the employment data release, President Trump called for the firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director, accusing the reported figures of being manipulated for political purposes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Federal Reserve Board member Adriana Kugler and President Trump's subsequent actions indicate a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's leadership and monetary policy direction, which could have significant implications for the U.S. economy and financial markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Changes - Adriana Kugler announced her resignation from the Federal Reserve Board effective August 8, 2023, to return to Georgetown University as a professor [2]. - Trump's excitement over Kugler's resignation suggests he may seek to nominate individuals aligned with his economic views to the Federal Reserve Board, potentially influencing future interest rate policies [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, all of whom are permanent voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with appointments made by the President and confirmed by the Senate [2]. Group 2: Employment Data and Market Reaction - The U.S. labor market showed disappointing results in July, with only 73,000 new jobs added, leading to a significant drop in the stock market, with over $1 trillion in market value lost [5]. - Trump's dismissal of Labor Statistics Bureau Director Erica McEntyre was based on allegations of political manipulation of employment data, although no evidence was provided [5]. - Following the release of the poor employment data, market expectations for a rate cut in September surged from under 40% to 80% [4].

Market Overview - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 jobs last month, falling short of the expected increase of 104,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [3] - The employment growth for the previous two months was significantly revised downwards, causing surprise among analysts [3] - Employment growth has been concentrated in previously understaffed sectors such as healthcare and social assistance, with a steady decline in the breadth of job creation in recent months [3] Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices fell sharply, with the Dow Jones down 542.40 points (1.23%) to 43,588.58, the Nasdaq down 2.24% to 20,650.13, and the S&P 500 down 1.60% to 6,238.01 [1] - Amazon's stock dropped by 8.3% due to lower-than-expected revenue guidance for the third quarter [5] - Other major tech stocks also performed poorly, with Apple down 2.5%, Nvidia down 2.3%, and Tesla and Microsoft down 1.8% [6] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the two-year yield dropping by 26.5 basis points to 3.7% and the ten-year yield down by 15.1 basis points to 4.22% [4] - The probability of a rate cut in September surged to over 80% according to the FedWatch tool [4] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan's survey indicated that U.S. consumer confidence rose for the second consecutive month in July, although overall market sentiment remains negative [3] Commodity Market - Gold prices surged due to increased risk aversion, with October contracts surpassing $3,400, marking a 2.02% increase [8] - Oil prices were pressured by economic uncertainty and OPEC+ production increase expectations, with WTI crude down 2.79% to $67.33 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.83% to $69.67 per barrel [7]

Market Overview - On August 1, U.S. stock indices fell sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.23%, S&P 500 down 1.60%, and Nasdaq down 2.24%, marking the largest decline since April. The total market capitalization of U.S. stocks decreased by over $1 trillion [1] - Major technology stocks also experienced significant declines, with Amazon dropping over 8% despite reporting second-quarter revenue of $167.702 billion, exceeding market expectations of $162.047 billion. However, the company's third-quarter operating profit guidance was below expectations, raising concerns about its cloud business growth [2] Employment Data - The U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, falling short of expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%. Additionally, previous months' employment figures were significantly revised downward, with May's job additions revised from 144,000 to just 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 [2] Economic Indicators - The uncertainty stemming from U.S. government tariff policies has led to increased caution among American businesses, contributing to a rapid deterioration in the labor market. The ISM reported that the manufacturing PMI for July was 48%, down from 49% in June [3] - Following the release of the latest economic data, the U.S. dollar index experienced a significant drop, falling from 100.23 to 98.66 within half an hour, reflecting a daily decline of 1.38% [3] Tariff Policy - On July 31, President Trump signed an executive order establishing "reciprocal tariffs" on multiple countries and regions, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%. Notably, tariffs on Canada were increased from 25% to 35%, effective August 1 [3] Commodity Prices - Oil prices saw a significant decline, while spot gold prices surged, surpassing $3,360 [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the efforts of U.S. Vice President Vance and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer to present a positive outlook on weak employment data, attributing some employment trends to the immigration policies of the Trump administration [1] Employment Data Analysis - Vice President Vance shared a chart indicating an increase in the number of native-born workers, while the employment rate of foreign-born workers has declined, suggesting a direct impact from Trump's immigration policies [1] - Labor Secretary DeRemer stated in an interview that despite unexpected revisions in employment data, job growth remains on a positive trajectory since Trump took office, with nearly 500,000 new jobs created, particularly in healthcare and construction sectors [1]

特朗普在疲弱的就业数据公布后表示将解雇劳工统计局局长。 ...

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