文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 2025年11月，社融存量同比8.5%（前值8.5%），M2同比8%（前值8.2%），新口径M1同比4.9%（前值 6.2%）。 核心观点 1、11月我们研判利润的先行指标企业居民存款剪刀差改善趋势延续，但速率较1月~8月明显放缓。此外， 我们研判权益成交量的非银居民存款剪刀差11月则相对偏弱，对应金融市场的流动性改善似乎出现了波 折。 2、展望未来，影响企业和非银流动性的有两个因素，一是总量M2的增长规模，由于当下实体经济的有效 融资需求客观偏弱，我们预计后续M2同比仍将持续下行。二是居民存款的搬家规模，我们认为居民存款搬 家的趋势依旧，但由于金融流动性的波折以及十月以来上证综指下行波动率的提升，2026年居民存款搬家 的速率可能边际放缓。 3、对于权益资产而言，总量M2的回落和居民存款搬家速率的放缓会带来两个影响，一是2026年估值提升 逻辑可能会弱化，二是创业板跑赢沪深300这个风格特征2026年或也弱化，2026年股市或应更重视安全边 际与盈利改善，更 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 12 日 M1-M2 负剪刀差再度走阔，居民存款搬家仍在继续 ——11 月金融数据解读 核心观点 11 月末 M2 与 M1 增速相对承压。11 月末，M2 增速为 8%，前值 8.2%，下行了 0.2 个百分点。11 月末，M1 同比增速为 4.9%，前值 6.2%，回落了 1.3 个百分点。11 月 M1-M2 负剪刀差为-3.1%，前值-2%，较上月再度走阔 1.1 个百分点。 我们认为 11 月 M1-M2 负剪刀差进一步走阔，主要体现为 M1 对企业活期存款更为敏 感，在年末资金周转加快与存款定期化倾向提升的背景下，回落幅度显著大于 M2。 具体而言，企业端受回款偏慢、支出结算与偿债需求上升影响，活期资金难以沉淀， 部分资金由活期向定期存款迁移，压制 M1 增速；与此同时，财政开支加快带来政府 存款向居民、企业端的季节性转移，叠加国库定存净增对一般存款形成托底，使 M2 增速仅小幅下行。综合影响下，呈现 M1 显著下行、M2 相对韧性的组合特征，推动负 剪刀差继续扩大。 跟踪居民存款搬家，11 月超额储蓄的 ...

今天盘面有点超预期，板块和题材活跃基本在预期之中，但指数午后原本是有回落迹象，但最后一个小 时出现了明显的走强特征，这种走势跟上周五尾盘有点类似，我怀疑是有无形之手参与其中。在2点之 前，我们看到沪深两市的大小盘黄白线其实都是粘合的，或者是反复交叉，但在2点之后出现了明显的 白线走强，黄线跟涨的走势，也就是说最后一个小时明显是权重在领涨。 上周五我们看到尾盘走强，但是周末并没有发现什么实质性的利好，特别是私募机构在上周五出现了大 幅加仓，从轻仓状态回到了半仓，今天它们也继续加仓，我是疑心近期是否存在重大利好预期，目前明 牌的就两个：一是北京时间12月11号凌晨3点左右发布美联储议息会议决议，同时还会发布经济展望， 点阵图和新闻发布会，属于它们年底的最重要一次会议了，目前美联储降息概率近乎九成。 全文链接请点击 …… …… 有报道称，11月中旬至今，上证指数从4000点回落，围绕3900点震荡，市场关于居民存款搬家的讨论继 续升温。近期，知名私募创始人李蓓再度发声称，居民存款搬家或将助推股市，引发市场关注。近期， 记者就此进行了多方调研。从获悉的数据来看，近期部分居民存款确有从存款向其他投资领域转化的趋 势，但 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Guangdong Rural Singer Competition concluded successfully, showcasing ten talented contestants from across the province, attracting a large audience [6][7]. - The event was part of a broader cultural initiative aimed at promoting rural music and community engagement [6][7]. Group 2 - Guangdong's foreign trade has demonstrated resilience and vitality during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, as highlighted in a recent press conference by the provincial government [15][16][17]. - The province's efforts in high-level opening-up have yielded significant achievements, contributing to its leading position in national foreign trade [15][16][17]. Group 3 - The launch of the Panzhihua-Xingyi high-speed railway marks a significant milestone for Guizhou, making it the first province in Southwest China to achieve high-speed rail connectivity between all its administrative centers [21][22][23]. - This development is expected to enhance regional connectivity and stimulate economic growth in the area [21][22][23]. Group 4 - The 2025 China Tea Brand Value TOP50 list was announced, with two brands from Guangdong making the list: Yingde Black Tea ranked 18th with a value of 8.734 billion yuan, and Fenghuang Dancong entered the top fifty for the first time with a value of 6.421 billion yuan [40][41]. Group 5 - A training session on "flash sales" for agricultural products was held in Maoming, aimed at empowering local agriculture for high-quality development [29][30]. - This initiative reflects a growing trend in the agricultural sector to explore innovative sales channels and enhance market competitiveness [29][30]. Group 6 - Following the collective withdrawal of five-year large-denomination certificates of deposit by major state-owned banks, there has been a noticeable shift in deposit behavior among residents, with many seeking higher returns on their investments [11][12][13]. - This trend indicates a potential reallocation of funds towards more lucrative asset classes, impacting the banking sector's deposit base [11][12][13]. Group 7 - In response to the recent fire in Tai Po, Hong Kong, nearly 100 enterprises and organizations from both the mainland and Hong Kong have donated over 1.36 billion HKD in cash and materials, demonstrating strong community support [51][52][53]. - This collective effort highlights the solidarity and compassion shared between the regions in times of crisis [51][52][53].

Group 1 - The report indicates that A-shares are expected to gradually emerge from a structural "slow bull" market, with potential liquidity support from resident deposits and institutional funds in the medium to long term [3][18] - By 2030, the reallocation of resident assets is projected to bring in approximately CNY 5.4 to 12.0 trillion into the market, with contributions from deposit "migration" estimated at CNY 3.5 to 6.2 trillion and asset reallocation contributing CNY 1.9 to 5.7 trillion [3][7] - Insurance funds are expected to cumulatively increase their allocation to stocks and funds by about CNY 4.5 to 6.5 trillion over the next nine quarters [3][8] Group 2 - The potential "migration" space for resident deposits in China by 2030 is estimated to be between CNY 15.1 trillion and 24.0 trillion, based on different GDP growth scenarios and historical deposit decline rates [6][30] - The report outlines two scenarios for deposit migration: a rapid transfer scenario (2013Q1-2015Q2) leading to an upper limit of CNY 23.8 to 24.0 trillion, and a moderate transfer scenario (2020Q2-2021Q4) resulting in a lower limit of CNY 15.1 to 15.2 trillion [6][31] - The potential incremental funds from resident asset reallocation to the A-share market could range from CNY 3.5 to 6.2 trillion under different scenarios of deposit migration [7][34] Group 3 - The report estimates that by 2026, the potential incremental funds for the A-share market could be around CNY 6.0 to 9.6 trillion, with contributions from various channels including the primary market, active funds, private equity, and ETF funds [9][20] - The primary market is projected to contribute approximately CNY 347.2 to 559.4 billion, while private equity funds could contribute CNY 1.25 to 2.32 trillion, and ETF funds could add CNY 2.61 to 3.95 trillion [9][20] - The current margin balance as a percentage of the circulating market value remains healthy, indicating further potential for leverage funds to be released [9][35]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trend of "deposit migration" among residents, which is contributing to the active market environment and influx of new capital into the A-share market, with data indicators and reasons summarized until July 2025 [3]. Group 1: Deposit Migration Trends - The growth rate of non-bank deposits remains high, with year-on-year increases of 16.7%, 9.7%, and 11.8% for August, September, and October respectively [3]. - The growth rate of household demand deposits has rebounded from nearly 0% at the beginning of 2024 to 7.4% in October 2025, while time deposits have decreased from around 15% to 10.5% [3]. - Non-financial corporate demand deposits have also increased, reaching 10.7% in October, while time deposits have dropped from 7.3% to 1.4% [3]. Group 2: Investor Activity - Investor activity remains relatively high, with over 2.3 million new accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange from August to October, and margin trading balances rising from 1.8 trillion yuan to 2.5 trillion yuan [3][8]. - The turnover rate, calculated based on free float market capitalization, has decreased to around 4%, still above historical averages [3][10]. Group 3: Bank Wealth Management Products - The structure of bank wealth management products has changed, with a decrease in the proportion of long-term products as the market has warmed, dropping from 16.9% to 15.7% for products with a term of over one year [13]. - The annualized yield of bank wealth management products has declined, with median yields for various terms showing a decrease over the past year [15]. - The high liquidity and low volatility of short-term products continue to attract investors, especially in a recovering equity market [15]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to remain active, with bank wealth management likely to further invigorate, supported by upcoming expirations of numerous long-term products [17]. - The article anticipates that the A-share market's upward trend since September 24 will continue into 2026, driven by various macroeconomic factors [17]. - The overall valuation of A-shares is considered reasonable, with ongoing support from international order restructuring and domestic innovation trends [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial sector, highlighting the potential for growth in wealth management and asset management businesses within brokerages [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates a significant shift of household deposits from traditional banks to capital markets, with a notable increase in non-bank institution deposits by 1.85 trillion yuan in October 2025, while household deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan [4]. - The insurance sector shows robust growth, with insurance funds' investment balance reaching 37.5 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a 3.4% increase from Q2 2025 and a 12.6% increase year-on-year [4]. - The report emphasizes the increasing attractiveness of the equity market, which is expected to benefit brokerage firms' wealth management and asset management businesses [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,628.14 with a weekly change of -1.08%, while the non-bank index rose slightly by 0.16% [7]. - The brokerage sector index decreased by 1.01%, while the insurance sector index increased by 2.63% [7]. Non-Bank Financial Data - As of November 14, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was 20,283.14 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.76% from the previous period [46]. - The margin trading balance reached 25,065.34 billion yuan, an increase of 34.4% compared to the end of 2024 [19]. Key Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on brokerage firms that will benefit from the increased attractiveness of the equity market, specifically highlighting firms such as GF Securities, Huatai Securities, and China Galaxy Securities [4]. - In the insurance sector, companies like China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and AIA are recommended due to their strong performance and growth potential [4].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese brokerage stocks experienced a significant decline in late trading, with notable drops in major firms such as GF Securities, CITIC Securities, and others, reflecting a broader market sentiment shift [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, GF Securities (000776) fell by 3.88% to HKD 19.09, CITIC Securities (601066) decreased by 2.34% to HKD 12.94, and other major brokerages also saw declines [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange reported that new account openings in October totaled 2.4672 million, a month-on-month decrease of 21.4% and a year-on-year decline of 66.3% [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analysis - Donghai Securities noted that the slowdown in new account openings is attributed to a previous surge in market sentiment that led to concentrated demand, as well as a high base effect from last year's "924" market rally [1] - Despite the decline in new accounts, market sentiment remains high, with ongoing fluctuations around the 4000-point level leading to divergent trading sentiments among brokerages [1] Group 3: Financial Data Insights - China Galaxy Securities highlighted that financial data from October indicates a further shift of residents' deposits, driven by the stock market's profitability, which is a positive signal for the market [1] - The firm also pointed out that the apparent pause in the movement of deposits from residents to non-bank entities is likely influenced by last year's rapid shifts, suggesting that monitoring of subsequent data is essential [1]

Group 1 - Chinese brokerage stocks accelerated their decline towards the end of trading, with notable drops including GF Securities down 3.88% to HKD 19.09, CITIC Securities down 2.34% to HKD 12.94, and China Merchants Securities down 1.88% to HKD 15.62 [1][1][1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange reported that new account openings in October totaled 2.4672 million, a month-on-month decrease of 21.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 66.3% [1][1][1] - Donghai Securities noted that the slowdown in account openings is attributed to a previous surge in market sentiment and the high base effect from last year's "924" market rally, while still indicating that market sentiment remains strong [1][1][1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities highlighted that financial data from October indicates a further shift of household deposits into the stock market, which is a positive signal for the market [1][1][1] - The firm previously emphasized that the apparent pause in the movement of household deposits to non-bank entities in September was influenced by last year's rapid shifts, suggesting that the trend of moving deposits is ongoing and should be monitored [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The Nikkei 225 index opened down 1.3% and expanded its intraday decline to 2%, with SoftBank dropping 9% [1] - The cryptocurrency market experienced significant declines, with Bitcoin falling to $98,990.7, a nearly 3% drop in 24 hours, and Ethereum dropping nearly 6% to around $3,200 [1] - The primary reason for the market sell-off is attributed to a collective hawkish stance from Federal Reserve officials [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, emphasized the importance of maintaining the 2% inflation target, indicating it is too early to decide on interest rate cuts [2] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also supported maintaining stable interest rates to apply pressure on inflation [2] - The resignation of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, prompting a collective response from other officials [2][3] Group 3 - Chinese securities firms noted that monthly financial data indicates a continued shift of household deposits away from banks, which is a positive signal for the market [4] - South Korea's finance minister announced measures to stabilize the currency market amid concerns over the depreciation of the Korean won [4] - Japan's Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, indicated a shift in fiscal policy focus towards increasing government spending rather than improving public finances, which may lead to economic stimulus measures [4]